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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
The end is near.
With Firestone hosting this week’s limited field World Golf Championship-Bridgestone Invitational, and Reno, Nev., hosting the Barracuda Championship, it marks the second to last non-major tournament prior to the FedEx Cup playoffs.
After this week, golf will shift to Valhalla in Kentucky for the PGA Championship and then the top-125 in the FedEx Cup standings will slide over to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship. There’s not a whole lot of time to make a move, so the finishes on display this week will have significant repercussions on the overall standings. And a hot run of play starting Thursday is enough to carry someone through, all the way to the TOUR Championship in Atlanta.
I won’t go into details on the Barracuda Championship, won last year by Gary Woodland, but feel free to discuss in the comments below or fire away to me on Twitter.
As for the premier event, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational has no cut and that’s noteworthy since daily fantasy leaguers won’t miss out on points unless someone just tosses out a dud of a round.
At 7,400 yards, Firestone’s par-70 South course is a challenge, and it’s been one met handily by those that can score on the par-5s and birdie the limited opportunities provided on the par-4s.
Let’s break down the field trying to tackle “The Monster” a little bit further for fantasy purposes in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.
RISK
There’s a name in the mix this week that will be impossible to shake as you pull up past leaderboards: Tiger Woods. That’s because he’s won at Firestone eight times in his career, is the defending WGC-Bridgestone champion and has made over $11 million in his lifetime on the course. But just because someone’s track record is good does that make them a front runner. It’s not too late to have a good week and spark things, but you’d hope there have been at least a few signs of life in that golfer’s game to validate a selection. If they’ve struggled all year, they’re probably not going to suddenly turn it around this week. For daily leaguers, you can get away with being riskier. Here’s five to show trepidation over this week.
Tiger Woods
It sure is weird to start with Woods as a risk when mentioning Firestone, but given how he’s owned Bay Hill in his career and didn’t challenge there because of rust, it’s likely wiser to slot him here. Make no mistake, Firestone fits his eye, and when you’re waiting for your game to come back around, a comfortable setting where you know what to expect could be just what the doctor ordered. Really, Tiger just needs to play and he gets four rounds to do so this week. You saw the 3-under start he had at The Open, so he’s more than capable. From day to day is where it will change. He’s probably more of a Day 2-4 start than on Day 1.
Jim Furyk
It’s not that Furyk isn’t worthy of being a top choice, but when you can’t close out tournaments with a 54-hole lead, well, your value does diminish. And in the case of last week’s missed opportunity at the RBC Canadian Open, Furyk has yet another blown win to contend with in his mind. Still a model of consistency, Furyk has seven top-10s this year and has four rounds to play any bad out of his thoughts. He has a T9, T2 and T6 finishes in three of his last four starts at Firestone.
Jason Dufner
With four top-10s and six top-25s in 15 starts, Dufner hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been great either. But this is also the time of year when he seems to play his best golf. He tied for fourth last year after entering in similar form, then went on to win the PGA Championship the next week. Dufner also finished solo seventh in 2012, but those are his only two starts so we don’t yet know whether this is a standing pattern for him or just a bit of luck at the right time. With no cut, it’s a decent gamble.
Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama made his debut at Firestone last year and finished T21, shooting 72-68-70-71. What’s nice this year is he’s begun displaying what had been captivating people and called to attention his big talent. A win at the Memorial at the beginning of June highlighted his ascension. He has four top-10s and nine top-25s this season. What I like for this course is he is sixth on tour in par-5 scoring and fifth in birdie average, making him tantalizing in a no-cut situation.
Martin Kaymer
Kaymer underwhelmed at The Open, but he’s otherwise been handing out beatings when matched up with the world’s best. With a T9 last year as he returned to form in his golf game, I find no reason to believe he won’t be better this year. This year’s PLAYERS and U.S. Open champion has been stellar on approach, especially from longer distances. That should match well this week at Firestone, where his putting stroke is reminiscent of Woods’ last year, when he didn’t need par-5 scoring to win.
REWARD
There’s a lot of good golfers in the field and Yahoo A is particularly stacked with plenty of good options. With no cut, margins get tighter and a risk can play like a reward and vice versa. If you expect something stellar, that’s when you usually wind up disappointed. But the proven track records at Firestone is what carries these golfers through, if not their proven elite level of play. Well, for several anyways. One thing you can’t shy away from is a hot golfer or one motivated by things like making the Ryder Cup team. Here’s five strong selections this week that stand out.
Adam Scott
Still the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world, Scott will have to fend some good guys off to keep that title. The good news for him is he won the WGC-Bridgestone in 2011 and has T4, T9, and T5 finishes since he won the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Two of those top-10s are in majors. Scott tied for 14th last year, and in his winning year opened with a 62 and closed with a 65. He also has a T9 (’10) and there’s clearly nothing scary about Firestone to him, not when you rank third in birdie average and first in par-5 scoring.
Henrik Stenson
Stenson’s run to a FedEx Cup title last year started with a solo second at The Open and ran smack dab into a T2 at Firestone. While he enters off a T39 from Hoylake, he also has a T4 at the U.S. Open in his last start on American soil. Solid on approach, Stenson needs some work on the greens, but finds a way to score. Best of all, he capitalizes on par-5s, ranking second on Tour behind Scott in birdies in that department.
Ryan Moore
Arguably the hottest golfer in the fielder, Moore enters having posted T5, T7 and T12 finishes in his last three starts. He ranks seventh in GIR and is getting it done with par-4 scoring. His par-5s lead something to be desired, but it doesn’t mean he won’t convert. During his tournament at TPC River Highlands, he made two eagles, two birdies and no bogeys on the par-5s. Moore opened with a 66 last year before fading, in 2011 posted 66-66 to start before going above par, and in ’10 finished T16. Decent track record meets hot streak, which bodes well for Moore this week.
Keegan Bradley
Only two starts for Bradley at Firestone. One is a win in 2012 and the other is a T2 last year. Is this a course that suits his eye and game? I don’t know how to answer that question other than to say he’s motivated to win now and claim a Ryder Cup spot. Enters having finished T4 at The Greenbrier and T19 at The Open, and Bradley has 11 top-25s on the season. Scores well on par-4s and par-5s, but has been undone by touch around the green. I’m inclined to believe he likes the South course and will put up a good number.
Rory McIlroy
Oh, did you think I’d leave McIlroy out? No way. Coming off his British Open win, the No. 2 golfer in the world wants to overtake Scott and little if anything in his game is off. One more win and he’s probably the player of the year given he’s seven top-10s already. He’s played Firestone five times and has three top-10s– T5, T6, T9– to boast of. Even when he was off last year he finished in the upper half of the field (T27). I’m not sure how you keep him out of your lineup at this point except if you’re running low on starts or need to be very risky this week. He’s second in par-4 birdies and fourth on par-5s with the distance and accuracy to keep on rolling.
RUIN
In a small field, there are bound to be those that just struggle due to the weight of the competition. And then there also those that could get beat up a bit by Firestone’s length. You can’t go wrong with those names you just know will compete or score at some point, but hampering your lineup with guys who have yet to show consistency is a good way to drop points in a week where everyone should be bunched together. Here’s five I don’t like this week.
Russell Henley
Henley is in the field on the strength of his playoff win at the Honda Classic in March, but he’s also missed 11 cuts this year. His last nine tournaments consist of six missed cuts and only five rounds in his last 25 have been shot in the 60s. Henley enters off a 75-80 MC at The Open to play a course where he shot 72-69-75-66 in his debut. That was a bit erratic for a guy who was in much better form in his rookie year. He’s also not scoring on par-5s and has more work to do off the tee to get in position for birdies.
Luke Donald
Donald is easily one of the shortest hitters on Tour and is scuffling a bit late. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, T64 at The Open and missed the cut last week in Canada. Donald has T9, T8 and T2 finishes in his last three tries at Firestone, so this can seem like a stretch for inclusion, but I still think he’s going to get swallowed up by the course this time. Right now, he’s 170th in driving distance, 129th in GIR and 164th in par-4 birdies. If he’s not scoring on those tighter tracks, he’s not going to do it here.
Brian Harman
Harman is like a lesser Luke Donald. While he got his first win at the John Deere Classic, that was hardly the test this will be, especially stacked up against this field. Ranking 114th in par-5 birdies, he’s going to need to be excellent in every aspect of his game and nail a lot of putts in order to get in the top 25 in his debut. The upside for picking him this week just isn’t there.
Matt Every
We haven’t heard much from every in a while, not since he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He put up four MC’s and a WD in the six weeks after that win before finding a T3 in Memphis. Then he promptly missed the cut, went T39 at Congressional and finished 71st at The Open. This is also his debut year, so there will be a learning curve. While he ranks first in strokes gained putting, he’s 133rd in driving distance, 155th in driving accuracy, 103rd in GIR and needs work on par-4s. He’ll probably settle in around 40th for this tournament, but that won’t get it done in fantasy circles.
Jonas Blixt
Blixt’s tie for second at The Masters is beginning to look more and more like a stroke of luck every day. He has four missed cuts in six starts on the PGA Tour since. His Euro golf was fine, except for an MC at The Open. He got to play Firestone last year on the strength of his Greenbrier win and finished back of the back after rounds of 70-75-73-72. With nine total cuts missed this year, driving accuracy that ranks 160th, a greens in regulation rank of 144th and a definite struggler on scoring in general, Blixt should be off your radar for fantasy purposes.
This just hasn’t been my year for picking the best daily rounds. And I’m finding I’ve got a bad case of the Furyks. Despite having the exact same lineup as my nearest challenger for the RBC Canadian Open, I lost 60 points from my overall lead and now have just a 50-point cushion. I need the bleeding to stop to hold this 54-hole lead, hence my picks suggest a bit of a change from the chalk mentality in order to find something lost. If you’d like to discuss the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational or the Barracuda Championship, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Best of luck on your week and as always thanks for reading!
This week’s picks
Yahoo!
Group A: A. Scott (S), H. Stenson
Group B: R. McIlroy (S), M. Kaymer (S), H. Matsuyama, K. Bradley
Group C: L. Oosthuizen (S), V. Dubuisson
(Last week: 140 points; Summer segment: 741; Summer rank: 34,804; Season points: 4,507; Full Season rank: 3,195 – 95th percentile)
PGATour.com
H. Stenson, M. Kaymer, R. Moore, H. Matsuyama
(Last week: 375 points; Season: 7,653; Rank: 3,607)
Golf Channel
WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
Group 1: H. Stenson
Group 2: K. Bradley
Group 3: R. Moore
Group 4: L. Oosthuizen
(Last week: $26,980; Season: $13,963,162; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 8,916 of 40,868)
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News
Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Troy Vayanos
Jul 29, 2014 at 4:32 pm
Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy for me. Both in great form and have performed over this layout before.
Looking forward to the tournament!