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Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: The Greenbrier Classic

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Each PGA Tour tournament course has its own style and often it’s quite nice to see different challenges presented each week.

I don’t really have that feeling following the Quicken Loans National. I know that it was Congressional Country Club, site of the 2011 U.S. Open. I know it plays tough. But unless it’s a major, I don’t necessarily want a tournament to play like one.

Additionally, it feels like Justin Rose backdoored a victory. It was the same feeling you had when Webb Simpson won at the Olympic Club despite finishing well before the final groups.

I have no qualms about Rose’s long putt on hole No. 18 to force a playoff at 4-under par, but don’t forget that was for bogey! That’s far from the run of seven birdies Kevin Streelman put up to go out and grab a title away from others.

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It was also a disappointing tournament for several, such as Simpson, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth, who would seem to have the make-up and game to win a grind-it-out tournament. In the end, it was Rose who did, although, again, a 74-65-71-70 four-day scoreboard isn’t exactly friendly to the eye. In the end, I’ll remember the Quicken Loans National more for Patrick Reed’s final-round 77 to blow what should have been an easy win, with the true battle being one of attrition as everyone at the top of the Day 3 leaderboard decided to play hot potato with a $1 million check.

Attention now shifts to White Sulphur Springs, W.V., where The Greenbrier Classic will take place on historic The Old White TPC. The course has been around since 1914 but didn’t become a desirable Tour destination until tournament director Jim Justice took his millions and put it to amazing use in buying the bankrupt resort. He has poured into the local community, providing jobs and countless monies for charity, while The Greenbrier Classic became a recognized Tour spot in 2010. The resort itself, a place where 26 U.S. presidents have stayed and once served as a Cold War underground bunker, is immaculate and caused Bubba Watson to purchase property nearby.

The Old White TPC isn’t long at 7,287 yards, nor are its fairways called anything but generous, but there is a precision needed to tackle the undulating greens. Stuart Appleby shot a famous final-round 59 in the debut to polish off his win. Expect some low numbers this week as 2011 champ Scott Stallings shot a round in the 70s, shooting even par on his opening round before going low the next two days.

golf-jonas-blixt-greenbrier-classic_2970065

Expect the winner to be someone who gets hot and shoots in the range of 13-under par, just as Jonas Blixt did last year. Here’s a fantasy golf breakdown of The Greenbrier Classic in this week’s birdie-inviting edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

The Old White TPC is an homage to the fun you can have on a golf course, especially in its mimickery of several European holes, such as No. 15, which is modeled after the Eden at St. Andrews. Of course, The Greenbrier is all about fun, since Maroon 5 and Jimmy Buffett will both play concerts this week as Independence Day is celebrated on the PGA Tour.

You know who hasn’t had fun in West Virginia? Jeff Overton. Still without a victory on Tour, Overton shot 64-62-66-67 in 2010, falling victim to Appleby’s historic round by one shot. Now that’s a tough beat.

Make note of past leaderboards this week as it likely won’t be a big name that puts up a win. Rather, it will be someone riding a wave of hot play. That was Ted Potter Jr.’s route in 2012, using a then-Hooters Tour win to make the PGA Tour and perhaps get toasty at just the right time to cash in. Here are this week’s riskier picks that may just have timely and optimal desire.

Charles Howell III

howell-charles-032611-640x360

Taking second-place to Overton in lack of luck at The Greenbrier could easily be Howell III, who played a bogey-free tournament in 2010 and finished T9. He finished T32 the next year but has missed the cut the last two years, making him a true risk this week. On the year though, Howell III has eight top-25s and six top-10s, including a T3 in mid-May at the Byron Nelson. Statistically, he measures up to have a good week, which really comes down to how he putts.

Hudson Swafford

Learning the ups and downs of the PGA Tour isn’t something a rookie often grasps immediately. Former Georgia All-American Swafford posted a T30, T8 and T25 in three of his first six tournaments. The other three went for missed cuts. After that, Swafford found the going hard, struggling to make cuts and score when he did. Then he had a U.S. Open qualifier in Memphis and won medalist honors. He shot 67-78 and MC’d at the St. Jude Classic, but it was the start of finding something. His last two tournaments are a T24 at the Travelers (66-71-66-69) and a T11 at the Quicken Loans National (69-68-73-74). Looks like a good time to ride the wave of solid play.

Brendan Steele 

Brendan_Steele-1200

With seven top-25s and four top-10s already this season, Steele is well on his way to posting his best year in his fourth season on Tour. Not only that, but he’s coming off back-to-back T5’s. Steele tied for 41st last season in his debut, shooting 66-70-72-69. At 30th in GIR and 55th in SG-P and a bit of length off the tee, Steele could find his away around The Old White TPC with no problem and net his first victory since his rookie year at the Valero Texas Open.

Patrick Rodgers

It’s not often a golfer’s name follows Tiger Woods’ and his list of accomplishments are on the same standing. But Rodgers was a two-time All-American at Stanford and the No. 1 amateur in the world with just as many victories as Woods up exit a few weeks ago to turn pro. He’s played two Tour events and has two made cuts. While he tied for 55th last week, his T46th at the Travelers (66-69-71-70) showed he is capable of scoring. He’s a reach, but it’s not a bad one given his ability and proven track record in the vein of Jordan Spieth.

Brendon de Jonge

Brendon+De+Jonge+Viking+Classic+Round+Three+QIVrquN7bktl

Looking for a golfer on a hot streak? Zimbabwe native de Jonge should be on your short list. He’s on a run of good play, culminating in a T8 last week, which coincides well with a strong history at The Old White TPC. He tied for 17th last year (66-68-73-66), tied for 52nd the year before (74-64-68-71) and also turned in a T4 in ’11 and solo third in ’10. The difference in the result has been a matter of one high round. Either way, he likes the course and three rounds of low scores is a nice security blanket.

REWARD

As I previously stated, it likely won’t be a big name that wins. That said, it doesn’t mean the chalk won’t score and put themselves in the top 10. We’re now down to nine tournaments left in the fantasy season and starts available are at a premium. And since the Yahoo summer segment has just started, this is the perfect opportunity to get away from popular names to find a sleeper. Still, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention those that have the pedigree to buck the trend. Here’s your picks for reward this week.

Jimmy Walker

2Jimmy+Walker+Hyundai+Tournament+Champions+tfrESCAs37vl

If there’s one who has yet to grab the annointing of the general public as a primetime player, it’s Walker. The casual fan knows little of him, but any moderate follower of the Tour is aware he’s won three times already this season. Given that he finished as the runner-up last year and tied for fourth in 2010 and 2011, it will be really hard to look away from the solid Texan. Walker has pushed game to an elite level with top-10s in both majors this year.

Steve Stricker

I’ve got starts to burn with Stricker, as should most because of his limited playing schedule, so it’s enticing to use on the sturdiest golfers on Tour, regardless of his frequency in teeing it up. Stricker earned a T22 in 2012, shooting 69-67-68-68, which is the only time he’s played The Greenbrier. Consistent scoring is probably a reasonable expectation for this week as well with the outside possibility of a few strokes lower. All in all, it’s good upside and no downside.

Bubba Watson

BubbaWatson

I’d say the likelihood of Watson shooting 64-74 and missing the cut is the highest of anyone in the field, but it will be really hard to keep the two-time winner on Tour this year out of your lineup. Amazingly, he only finished T30 last year in his one and only trip. Watson shot 68-69-69-69 to fall back of the pace by eight strokes, but given his success this year, it’s reasonable to expect better. The course won’t hold him, and unless his aggressive approach goes awry, he should create numerous scoring chances.

Bill Haas

Haas has won a tournament the last four years but is winless this year with 11 top-25s and three top-10s. With two of those top-10s in his last four starts, Haas is warming up at a time of year whenever he normally cashes in. He tied for ninth last year (68-67-67-70), T32 in ’12 (68-69-65-72) and lost in a playoff in ’11 (71-67-65-67) in his three trips to The Old White TPC. He’s probably a must in Yahoo leagues, given group B’s four slots.

Brendon Todd

todd-brendon-051614-640x360

Hard to ignore this former Georgia star with what he’s done in his last five tournaments. Since his win at the Byron Nelson, Todd has issued T5, T8, T17 and T5 results, finishing under par in four of the five, the only outlier being the tough navigation of Pinehurst No. 2. Todd tied for 46th in his 2012 debut, shooting 70-69-68-69. A strong result when he was just a rookie should solidify his standing now in a breakout year.

RUIN

A bad number didn’t hurt at Congressional, but anything higher than par will severely hamper this week’s golfers, and it will likely lead to a missed cut. That’s a little bit scary because a morning round on soft greens may go well for a Thursday start, but the switch to a Friday afternoon tee time will test those that can’t control their distance or make putts as greens speed up. If you’re in a daily fantasy league, this will be one week to watch the weather and the tee times, but also looking for someone with touch around and on the green. Blixt is a good example of someone whose finesse with a short iron led to success. Others don’t have that quality in their game. Here are five I struggle to find value in this week.

Johnson Wagner

wagner-johnson-070613-640x360

The state of Wagner’s game is that he’s missed 13 cuts in 19 tries this year. It’s so bad that only normal scoring courses, such as the Puerto Rico Open, he also MC’d. Wagner tied for second last year via two low rounds of 62 and 64, and he entered in similar form, but it’s beyond a risk to think he will duplicate that effort. While his other two Greenbrier results show three rounds in the 60’s, Wagner statistically is at the bottom of the Tour in hitting GIR, fairways, driving distance and is hardly putting well. You’re digging a little too deep if you use him this week.

Steven Bowditch

Since Bowditch’s surprising win at the Valero Texas Open, he’s struggled to find anything close to a low score. In San Antonio, he had three rounds in the 60’s but closed with a 76. Since, he’s played 24 rounds without shooting in the 60’s and has missed six cuts. He tied for 21st last week and posted a T2 at The Greenbrier last year, shooting 65-67-69-68, but similar to Wagner, it’s scary hoping a golfer bucks a long trend just to grab a result more readily apparent from others. Bowditch has also has a MC and T18 in his history at The Old White TPC.

Keegan Bradley

keegan_bradley_flat_bill_tour_cap

Since we’re looking off the beaten trail for golfers and shunning some big names, I’m going to throw Bradley on this ruin list since he just can’t seem to find that next gear to his game on what should be winnable courses or in winnable tournaments. Bradley tied for 46th in 2012, firing 68-68-66-74, and he was T43 in ’11, shooting 72-67-69-71. I think those scores demonstrate the frustration with using him. You just expect a better result and, whether it’s a lack of focus or a breakdown in some component of his game, he’s not posting an elite score.

Spencer Levin

With nine missed cuts in his last 11 starts, Levin’s game isn’t displaying any finesse. He opened at Congressional with a 69, then shot 74-73-76 the rest of the way to finish T64. His first try at The Greenbrier in 2010 resulted in a T21, shooting 66-67-67-68. That was a good year for him and about the best you can hope for. His last two tries have placed him inside the cutline but back of the pack, with little to show for in quality rounds. I’d use Wagner or Bowditch before Levin and I’d rather avoid all three.

Martin Flores

Martin-Flores-June-2012_2790689

In recent weeks, several fantasy writers have offered up Flores as someone to go low. His solo third at the Wells Fargo Championship is still his only top-10 of the year, though he does have seven top-25s. His last eight rounds have been on the high side, however, and a high round this week puts you out of the mix. Flores learned that last year when rounds of 65 and 68 were offset by rounds of 71 and 74, resulting in a T54. He’s a capable kid as his sixth-place debut (64-68-69-67) of 2012 indicated, but this is another case where I’ll take recent hot play over course history. Ideally, you find a bit of both.

That’s all for this week. If you’d like to further discuss fantasy selections for The Greenbrier Classic, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Best of luck on your week and thanks for reading!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Leishman (S), G. Woodland

Group B: B. de Jonge (S), B. Haas (S), C. Kirk, S. Stricker

Group C: B. Todd (S), J. Walker

(Last week: 149 points; Spring segment: 1,733; Summer rank: 21,114; Season points: 3,915; Full Season rank: 1,211 – 98th percentile)

PGATour.com

B. Watson, B. Todd, B. Haas, M. Leishman

(Last week: 208 points; Season: 6,264; Rank: 4,141)

Golf Channel

The Greenbrier Classic

Group 1: B. Haas

Group 2: B. Todd

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: H. Swafford

(Last week: $323,050; Season: $12,205,845; Mulligan: $106,522; Rank: 8,434 of 40,214)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Pingback: Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: The Greenbrier Classic | Spacetimeandi.com

  2. Carl

    Jul 1, 2014 at 8:33 pm

    How does your Yahoo league add points up? I started the same as you last week and did not get 149 points.

    • Brian Miller

      Jul 1, 2014 at 11:58 pm

      I think it’s standard across the board. I kept the Day 1 starters for Day 2, then subbed out Day who MC’d for Garrigus. Subbed out Hoffman for Todd final two days as well, and played Woodland on final day. Todd got 5 bonus pts for finishing 3rd. The breakdown was 30 pts + 30 pts + 42 pts + 42 pts + 5 bonus = 149

      • Carl

        Jul 2, 2014 at 12:55 am

        Oh I’m sorry my league doesn’t allow substitutions so I had to keep Day in the whole week. Didn’t know standard let you sub

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News

Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson gets underway.

1. Woods confirms he plans to play 1x monthly, remaining 3 majors

ESPN report…”Woods, appearing on the “Today” show Wednesday morning, said he is still following the calendar he mapped out before the season began. But physical limitations continue to give the 15-time major winner pause.”

  • “He completed the Masters last month but requires a “cold plunge every day, religiously” to get his body going and was “extremely sore” when he left Augusta National. Woods shot a 16-over 304 at the Masters and finished last among the 60 golfers who made the 36-hole cut.”
  • “I have basically the next three months — three majors — and hopefully that works out,” said Woods, who last won a major in 2019.
  • “Up next is the PGA Championship at Valhalla in two weeks. The U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 begins June 13, and the Open Championship at Royal Troon in Scotland begins July 18. Woods has not played all four majors in a year since 2019.”
Full piece.

2. Tiger on origin of red-and-black Sunday outfit

Ben Morse for CNN…”…speaking on Tuesday’s edition of ‘The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon,’ the 48-year-old said his mother Kultida was key to him wearing the now-iconic red and black combination.”

  • “My mom thought, being a Capricorn, that [red] was my power color, or some BS thing like that, so I end up wearing red and end up winning some golf tournaments,” the 15-time major winner told Fallon. “And then to spite her, I wore blue, and I did not win those tournaments. So Mom is always right.”
  • “Woods’ mother was clearly was onto something as her son would go onto win a record-equaling 82 PGA Tour tournaments.”
Full piece.

3. Gary Player’s take on Tiger’s downfall

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.”

  • “The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”
  • “And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”
  • “Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”
  • In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.
Full piece.

4. Open winner: I used to hate links golf

Peter Scrivener for the BBC…”However, he did recall his chastening links golf baptism at neighbouring Prestwick, which hosted the inaugural Open in 1860.”

  • “The first time I played links golf I hated it – it ate me to pieces,” said the 37-year-old, who lost all four of his matches as Europe thrashed the United States in the 2006 Palmer Cup.
  • “I kept trying to hit lob wedges around the greens and the weather was bad. I got whipped, lost all of my matches.”
Full piece.

5. Why Tiger’s daughter doesn’t like golf

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.”

  • “On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.”
  • “Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.
  • “We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”
Full piece.

6. Spieth hits ‘reset button’

Mark Schlabach for ESPN…”PGA Tour star Jordan Spieth isn’t happy that he’s not playing as well as his longtime friend Scottie Scheffler, but he’s hoping to use the world No. 1 golfer’s success as inspiration.”

  • “Spieth, a three-time major championship winner, said he used last week as a reset after a so-so start to the 2024 season. He has three top-10 finishes in 10 starts but had a disqualification and three missed cuts, including at The Players and Masters, in his past seven.”
  • “He is hoping to turn things around, starting at The CJ Cup Bryon Nelson, which tees off Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.”
  • “I think I kind of wanted to hit the reset button this last week and I took more days off than I usually do,” Spieth told reporters Wednesday. “Got a little burned out trying to find stuff. I wanted to take some time off, clear my mind, and then get back to it.
  • “… Kind of looking at this as kind of a restart. I haven’t had the year I wanted to have after getting off to a pretty optimistic start in Hawaii. I feel really good about the work I put in since the weekend into the few days this week, so I believe that I’m really close to some great things.”
Full piece.

7. Photos from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

  • Check out all of our galleries from this week’s event!
Full Piece.
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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).

Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.

We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

 

 

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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine

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As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson. 

Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris. 

Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson

  • 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
  • 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
  • 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
  • 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
  • 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
  3. Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
  4. Ryan Moore (+0.98)
  5. Ben Martin (0.80)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Peter Kuest (+0.93)
  2. Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
  3. Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
  5. Kevin Tway (+0.74)

Birdie or Better %

There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Wesley Bryan (31%)
  2. Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
  3. Peter Kuest (25.9%)
  4. Matti Schmid (25.7%
  5. Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
  2. Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
  3. Callum Tarren (+0.86)
  4. Harry Hall (+0.81)
  5. Nick Hardy (+0.69)

Course History

This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.

Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:

  1. Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
  2. K.H. Lee (+2.59)
  3. Seamus Power (+1.84)
  4. Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
  5. Adam Scott (+1.72)

CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).

  1. Alex Noren
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Keith Mitchell
  4. Si Woo Kim
  5. Stephen Jaeger
  6. Jordan Spieth
  7. Jhonnatan Vegas
  8. Nate Lashley
  9. Brice Garnett
  10. Tom Hoge

2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks

Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)

Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.

An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.

Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.

An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.

Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.

Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.

Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)

After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.

Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.

In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.

Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.

Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)

Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.

At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.

2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.

Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)

Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.

This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.

Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)

Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.

Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.

Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.

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