Luck is an unquantifiable statistical category. It sure would be an interesting breakdown if you could see who just needs to throw their hands up or shrug their shoulders at the amount of balls that find the cup out of plugged lies or roll up on the green despite unenviable lies.

But really what happens is that professional golfers make their own luck. There’s an element of skill involved with making something appear lucky. However, that definitely wasn’t the case when Ken Duke’s approach shot on the 10th hole of last year’s Travelers Championship hit a tree branch off the left side of the green. The ball ricocheted to five feet and Duke birdied instead of dropping a shot or two. His good fortune turned into his first career win. While his tournament wasn’t made on that shot alone — he shot 65-66 on the weekend — it illustrates how fine the line is between winning and losing.

Unless you’re Martin Kaymer, of course, who seems hellbent on reminding everyone he once ascended to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Kaymer’s wire-to-wire U.S. Open victory should demonstrate to fantasy owners the beauty of a dark horse with confidence and pedigree.

This is the final week of the Yahoo spring segment, so don’t be afraid to get a little crazy and go off the beaten trail. If you’re ahead use the chalk, but understand everyone behind you will be looking for the Martin Kaymer’s of the week. You may need a little luck to win, but hopefully you’ve at least positioned yourself to be in contention. Here’s a look now at some golfers you may want to consider or stay away from as you make your lineup’s. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Never before in the history of a major championship has anyone done what Kaymer did in shooting back-to-back rounds of 5-under par. It was an impressive display to really put everyone else in a huge hole. What’s important to note about Kaymer is his composure and his understanding of his natural shot shape. The less thinking you have to do about mechanics on a golf course, the better you’ll perform. Take a look for some of those guys who seems to be figuring things out with their swing and are now just playing instead of pondering.

Ken Duke

Duke, 44, returns to defend his title, which was the first of his career. Known as one of the “good guys” on Tour, Duke turned a strong 2012 in which he had five T7s and a T5 into a more rewarding 2013. Notice I didn’t say better, because Duke’s quality results have been less consistent since. In fact, since his win, he only has two finishes inside the top 20 and that came at the beginning of this season. Here’s hoping last week’s solid tournament at Pinehurst No. 2 gets him going. He’s shot several low rounds at TPC River Highlands in addition to his winning tournament, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility to do it again.

Marc Leishman

The Aussie picked up his first and only career win in 2012 at TPC River Highlands, firing a final-round 62 to snag the title. He backed that up with a T30, hasn’t missed a cut in Cromwell and seems destined to shoot at least one 66, if not multiple. TPC River Highlands is a shorter course and longer hitters haven’t had a problem navigating it, which has been suiting Leishman’s game. In addition, his last four tournaments have displayed more finesse, highlighted by a T3 at the Byron Nelson.

Freddie Jacobson

While the last two tournaments haven’t been to Jacobson’s liking, he previously posted a T3 at the Crowne Plaza Invitational, which was hisd third top-10 of the year. Working backwards to 2009, his last four results in Cromwell have been a T30, T8, win and missed cut. His putting has again been his strongsuit, which would be the risk in running him out there this week. History suggests he likes these greens and that would be good news for gamers needing a sleeper pick.

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman has missed just one cut this year, while racking up four top-10s and nine top-25s. With a strong history of success at TPC River Highlands, including a T7 last year, T2 in 2012, and a low round of 61, Hoffman has an eye on his first win of the year. He’s also finished T43, T27 and MC here, and statistically is hitting it long, finding greens (13th in GIR) and making putts (26th in Strokes Gained-Putting). There’s little to suggest he won’t make at least a little noise this week and may very much be off the radar in Yahoo group C.

Brian Harman

Not the best former Georgia golfer in the field (Bubba Watson), but he continues to show promise and the same collegiate expertise that’s led Harris English, Brendon Todd, Russell Henley and Chris Kirk to put up wins early in their career. Coming off a T6 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, Harman will be looking for his first Tour victory. He has four other top-10s this season and has been using his putter with effectiveness. He tied for 24th in his debut, shooting 70-65-69-69, and tied for 51st last year, shooting 69-69-69-72.

REWARD

Built on a bluff along the Connecticut River, TPC River Highlands isn’t a long course at just 6,841 yards. The par-70 track was originally designed by Pete Dye. Lush and green, it will yield a lot of birdies, which is a key in picking golfers this week since those known for scoring will do so. A 68 is fine on one day, but four days of that won’t accomplish a win. I’m going to lace my lineup with guys capable of shooting 62 and burning up par-5s for eagle. The best thing will be watching the finish on holes, Nos. 15-18, as they navigates a four-acre lake, which puts water in play along with tighter fairways.

Bubba Watson

Pinehurst No. 2 clearly befuddled Watson, whose game revolves around banging it long and, in many cases, over trouble. He should find scoring a lot more optimal this week where he can sit on a traditional gameplan. TPC River Highlands was the site of Watson’s first Tour win in 2010. He does hope to avoid another triple-bogey meltdown like last year which cited a bit of caddy bashing after a fourth-place result and a blown two-shot lead on the 16th. In 2012, he finished T2, plus Watson also owns T38, T14 and T6 tallies over his career. With the year he’s having, one missed cut on a tough course acts as an outlier and the norm is in the top five.

Jason Day

You’ve got to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last time Day played the Travelers Championship. That week, he shot 67-67-66-71 to finish T27. A round of 4-under on the final day would have netted him a T5 in his debut. Day returns to Cromwell after a solid U.S. Open, which he navigated without problem from his thumb. Another long hitter, he’s also accurate off the tee, hits GIR and putts well enough. He absolutely has the potential to be in the top 10 and that makes him dangerous.

Matt Kuchar

I find myself in a final segment week where I’m going to have to burn a start and use Kuchar. He’s too good to leave off my roster right now while trying to hold a minuscule lead. I’m not exactly sweating it though since Kuchar shot four rounds in the 60s to finish T8 in ’12. A couple other appearances of ’08 resulted in a T52 and ’05 in a T36. With Kuchar, you have to judge his last three years since that’s when he became an elite and consistent threat, including this past week when he held steady for yet another top-10.

Graham DeLaet

Ready to see DeLaet pick up his first win? This is as good a place as any given TPC River Highlands’ propensity in rewarding those yet to find Tour love. Duke, Leishman, Jacobson and Watson all did so. Could DeLaet keep the run going? He missed the cut in his debut, came back in 2012 and opened with 68-68 before falling back with a final-round 75, but then finished solo third last year, shooting 65-70-65-69. DeLaet is still leading the PGA Tour in GIR and bombs it long off the tee as well. He’s made changes to his putting stroke this year, which would ideally reveal itself this week.

Hunter Mahan

It’s rare, but no pro golfer is immune from a blunder. While Mahan’s miscue in hitting the wrong ball cost him a made cut at the U.S. Open, it does nothing to deter use of him at the Travelers where he’s the all-time earnings leader. First, we’re talking about the 2006 runner-up, ’07 champion and ’08 runner-up. Last year, he opened with a 62 on the way to a T24. He shot 61 in ’12 and ended T11. In ’11, he shot 63-66 in the middle of a T43. And then in ’09, Mahan shot 66-70-63-64 on the way to a T4. It’s clearly a course he’s comfortable on and his swing has begun to solidify after a few changes last year.

RUIN

Rickie Fowler’s inclusion in last week’s Ruin portion was not a mistake. With the swing changes he’d undergone and spotty success record, it was justified, not just by me, but by other fantasy writers as well. Fowler channeled his inner and outer(wear) Payne Stewart and pulled out a fabulous U.S. Open. Now, he just needs to retain some level of consistency. That’s one of the biggest highlights in separating who goes in which section and for why. For as much as a golfer may have a singularly good tournament, becoming one who rides a wave of good play for several months in a row is what really gets people salivating, while simultaneously bringing in the money. This week’s group covers a broad spectrum of those criteria. They may play their way out of the argument, but it’s where they start their tournament—  as wary selections capable of burning their owners.

Patrick Cantlay

It’s rare for an amateur to set a course record, but that’s exactly what Cantlay did three years ago, shooting a 60 at TPC River Highlands. But this will be just the second start of 2014 for the youngster, who has been out for nearly a year with a stress fracture in his back. That could possibly be the worst injury to recover from for a golfer, especially a young one. He played the Byron Nelson in May, shooting 70-69-71-76 to finish 71st. He shot 75-67 to miss the cut in 2012 and finished T24 in ’11 when he opened with 67 before shooting the record. He’s a good talent, but Cantlay’s health and time on the course is a critical decision maker this week.

Cameron Wilson

Looking for another Cantlay, it could be Wilson who just captured an NCAA individual championship for Stanford University. He’ll be making his professional debut, however, and I’m always wary about throwing an amateur or a rookie into the mix on my fantasy golf team unless it’s on a course where everyone will score and the best pros won’t compete, such as the Puerto Rico Open. We’re just a tad farther north than the Caribbean Sea, so I’m going to shelve Wilson and look for other options coming out of Yahoo group C with a bit more seasoning.

Bobby Gates

Let’s see if I can jinx myself. Do not use Gates. He’s missed 11 of 12 cuts this year, pulling in just a T80 at the Farmers Insurance Open. That was coincidentally the only time he shot a single round in the 60s. He has one round in the 60s at TPC River Highlands, but has missed the cut all three times he’s played. There’s quite literally nothing that he’s done right statistically, but I’ll be watching in earnest to see if he wants to stick it to me.

Ben Crane

In contrast to Gates, Ben Crane broke a winless streak with a huge victory at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Truthfully, his year hadn’t been great to that point with a T9 at the Humana Challenge being far and away his best result since May of last year. Again, consistency is the key here. I want to see Crane back that win up with a made cut and even a top 25 before I begin public endorsement. For now, Crane is still a guy with a T75, T59 and WD in his history in Cromwell. If he begins changing the lack of greens he hits, he sets up well to start being consistent. I’ll wait and see.

Sergio Garcia

There’s normally no reason to leave Garcia out of your lineup, especially since he falls in Yahoo group C, but the Spaniard is dealing with a knee injury right now that could be disaster should he withdraw medically. He already did that once in May and has been limiting his practice rounds pre-tournament. Should swelling not subside, Garcia could choose to rest and a WD in group C would hurt. This would be a good week to lay back and use someone else, especially since his U.S. Open didn’t show the crispness he exhibited at The Players and in previous tournaments

If you’d like to further discuss fantasy selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Best of luck on your week and thanks for reading!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: B. Watson (S), M. Kuchar

Group B: H. Mahan (S), J. Day (S), G. DeLaet, D. Johnson

Group C: C. Hoffman (S), B. Koepka

(Last week: 140 points; Spring segment: 1,639; Spring rank: 2,719; Season points: 3,632; Full Season rank: 814 – 99th percentile)

PGATour.com

B. Watson, J. Day, G. DeLaet,. C. Hoffman

(Last week: 277 points; Season: 5,909; Rank: 3,984)

Golf Channel

Travelers Championship

Group 1: B. Watson

Group 2: H. Mahan

Group 3: K. Duke

Group 4: H. Swafford

U.S. Women’s Open

Group 1: I. Park

Group 2: M. Wie

Group 3: B. Lincicome

Group 4: J. Rosales

(Last week: $668,005; Season: $11,087,812; Mulligan: $78,287; Rank: 8,666 of 39,983)