I hope you enjoyed last weekend’s high-energy drama “Drive for Show, Putt for Dough” in Dallas, because this week the PGA Tour is re-running Star(ter) Wars: Episode VI: Return of the Ball-Striker.

Yes, it’s fairway-or-die golf yet again as another invitational tournament takes place on Tour. This week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial has a tradition of kicking up winners whose drivers had, up until last weekend, drawn more dust than a Mike Weir highlight reel. Boo Weekley secured his third tartan jacket last year, which makes it three total jackets that sweet-swinging Weekley has in his laidback country wardrobe.

I jest, but it is interesting to run down the list of past winners and see how many times length off the tee doesn’t matter, yet accuracy in the champions’ games has.

Some of those would be Zach Johnson, twice (2010, ’12); David Toms (’11), Steve Stricker (’09), Sergio Garcia (’01), Kenny Perry (’03, ’05), and the list keeps going. Only two-time winner Phil Mickelson (’00, ’08) really breaks the mold, and that likely points more to his being unequivocally the best when it came time to enter.

Don’t get too bomber friendly this week and out-think years of history. One or two in your lineup is OK, but your wiser inclination should lean towards safety, not sizzle.

Saddle up, because we’re going to mess with Texas one more time to break down the CPI’s 125-man field in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Chalk up one more first-time Tour winner on this year’s tally sheet after Brendon Todd continued his solid putting but added in relaxed long and short games to capture the HP Byron Nelson Championship. I loved the left-handed, back-of-a-4-iron pitch he pulled off to save par on TPC Four Season’s 16th. The shot was creative, daring and executed to perfection. There’s got to be something in the water in Athens, Ga., because those former Bulldogs golfers don’t mess around. It’s only a matter of time now before Kevin Kisner, Brian Harman and Hudson Swafford join Todd, Russell Henley, Harris English, Bubba Watson and Chris Kirk in the bank line cashing $1 million dollar checks. It’s nearly impossible to pick first-time winners, but the propensity that it is happening means you shouldn’t shy away from taking a calculated risk. Here are five across-the-board Risks for this week in Ft. Worth.

Paul Casey

I was sitting on Casey last week and alluded to using him this week. That hasn’t changed and has only been enhanced by Casey’s rounds of 71-68-64-63 at the Zurich Classic (T11) and 71-63-73-68 at the HP Byron Nelson (T11). I’d like to see him put together four rounds in the 60s and Colonial could be that opportunity, though he hasn’t played it since 2011. In that year, he finished T13 and shot 66-70-66-66. The year before, Casey was solo fifth with 66-67-66-66. Clearly this course agrees with him, and with his health back, I’m looking for Casey to break out this week.

Kevin Na

I’ll admit, Na isn’t my favorite golfer, and I still find myself annoyed with having to watch an overly long pre-shot routine. I’m going to put that bit of ire aside and make mention of him for the first time outside the Ruin portion. He’s made his last seven cuts at Colonial and T13 two years ago. He finished T22 in ’10, shooting 67-68-65-69. Na has four top-10s and eight top-25s this year, which probably translates well with middling stats. He’s just been steady, nothing special. That’s probably what to expect this week.

Jordan Spieth

If Spieth complained about all the distraction of being back home, he wouldn’t be the first pro golfer to do so. More eyes, more scrutiny, an expectation to perform on a “home” course, the tug of dinner requests— it can all be exhausting. Maybe that’s what the HP Byron Nelson is for Spieth and maybe Colonial is a step back into routine. With six top-10s this year and phenomenal debut performances at The Masters (T2) and The Players (T4), people now want Spieth to hoist more trophies overhead. Rory McIlroy had to deal with this pressure and it took a while to learn to cope. In his debut last year, Spieth tied for seventh shooting 65-67-71-67. If his ball-striking is good, he’s a better putter than most. He’s slowly learning those intangibles to be a consistent winner, only he’s under a microscope that wants it to happen quick. Be patient, but also know he’s talented enough to win each week, including this one.

John Senden

Senden is well on-pace this season to have a record year. He’s turned in his second-career PGA Tour victory and had three top-10s total. Last week saw him post a T11, which is a run of four good tournament finishes. He’s finished in the top-10 twice at Colonial (’11, ’04), but Senden does also have three missed cuts through the years. Not a sure thing, but his recent form is a strong indicator of success, as is his driving accuracy (41st), GIR (15th) and strokes gained putting (31st). Not a bad selection but will need to be paired with a horse.

Graham DeLaet

Another week, another mention for DeLaet being the best player on the PGA Tour yet to win a tournament. It won’t stay that way forever, not with the way he’s leading the Tour in greens in regulation. The Canadian is also eighth in total driving and has a new approach to putting, which seemed to fair well last week with a T7 at 8-under par. Already with six top-10s this season and two top-10s, it’s only a matter of time before DeLaet wins. And he’d probably look pretty sweet with a new jacket to clash with one of his colorful shirts and hipster beard. Shot 64-67-69 through three days last year, but a final-round 74 dropped him to 6-under, good for a T22. An even par round would have put him T7 or four strokes back of Boo Weekley.

REWARD

The last time Colonial hosted a tournament where the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world participated was 1986, when Greg Norman sharked his way around the course. Now, it’s another Aussie making that claim as Adam Scott has jumped ahead of Tiger Woods in the Official World Golf Rankings on his own merit and a little bit of misfortune with Eldrick’s back troubles. It’s quite the boon for the Crowne Plaza Invitational to have Scott in the field, which will also see Dustin Johnson teeing it up. But are they the best bets for victory or low scores this week? Time to take a look at this week’s strongest bets for reward.

Zach Johnson

If you think Johnson is only exceptionally good at the John Deere Classic, you’ve not seen a leaderboard from his last five years here: 2013— solo third, 2012— won, 2011— solo fourth, 2010— won, 2009— tied for ninth. I really don’t know what more I could point out. He’s got a win and three other top-10s this year, and Johnson ranks fifth on Tour in driving accuracy. Lock him in.

Jim Furyk

The thing I love about Furyk so much is that regardless of his age (43), he still has the feistiness of a 20-year-old. His golf game has shown no drop off either and Furyk comes in as one of the hottest golfers in the field after back-to-back solo seconds at the Wells Fargo Championship and The Players Championship. Mix in a T6, T14 and T7 the weeks before and Furyk keeps trending up to that next victory. At Colonial, his last five starts are T31, solo fourth, T31, MC and T9. He sits 10th on Tour in driving accuracy and 56th in GIR, and he’s been in the top-10 seven times in this event over the years.

Matt Kuchar

I’ve saved starts on Kuchar the last few weeks and I’m glad I did because I can’t leave him off my team this week. He’s 7 for 7 at Colonial and finished in a tie for second last year. There’s been no letdown in his game after his win at the RBC Heritage (reminder: tight track, red plaid jacket) with a T17 at The Players and a T7 last week in Dallas. Has all the statistical measurables: 25th in driving accuracy, 42nd in GIR, 14th in strokes gained putting, 1st in scoring average. Leading the Tour in top-10 finishes, there’s no way he doesn’t do it again.

Ryan Palmer

Texas born and bred, Palmer looks to continue what he started last week at the HP Byron Nelson Championship (T22). Not the truest ball-striker by definition (his stats are fine), Palmer sees his worth rise on this course where he finished T14 last year and T5 the season before. Has four top-10s this year, including two seconds. The best thing about him is he’s opened strong here the last two years with rounds of 62-72 and 68-67. In 2011, he shot 69-69-66-73, the final round being his “downfall” for a T31. In ’09, he opened with 69-63 on the way to a T34. Use him the first two days, feel safe about him playing the weekend and find a closer to round out Yahoo group C.

Boo Weekley

After a disappointing trip to Harbour Town for the RBC Heritage, Weekley returned to form last week and ended with a T5. That comes at an opportune time for fantasy owners given his long-standing success at Colonial. All doubt is gone and you can pencil in last year’s champion for another solid effort. In years prior, he was T31 (’12), 55th (’11) and solo ninth (’10). He ranks seventh in driving accuracy and fourth in GIR. I know there are other golfers in the field with bigger name appeal, and they present intriguing picks, but this is where my trust lies.

RUIN

If you’ve never been frustrated by fantasy golf, you just haven’t been playing long enough. You could sit on Charles Howell III for three weeks, see him under-perform despite your best inclinations, drop him from your lineup, and then see him roll to a T3 like he did last week. That wasn’t me, but I’m sure a few of you had that happen. I actually withheld using Dustin Johnson for three rounds and with him seemingly out of contention for a top-3 finish, didn’t use him for the final round. He shot 4-under and it was a difference of eight points with Spieth, who I left in. It’s not a killer, but it will make you scratch your head. Here’s five Ruin who likely won’t make it to the weekend, thereby keeping some sanity intact.

Jeff Overton

Speaking of potential first-time winners, Overton is one who will breakthrough at some point it seems, but the former Indiana University star still has areas of his game to fine tune. Three top-10s and six top-25s this year is nothing to complain about, nor is the solo fourth he put up a couple weeks ago in New Orleans. But Overton finished 82nd at The Players and missed the cut last week. He got off to a good start with a 67-69 last year but was DQ’d and the year before missed the cut. Got off to a good start in ’11 but lost it on the weekend badly. He had a T3 in ’10 where he put it altogether, but those moments have been small thus far, his stats aren’t good, and he’s thusly too sporadic to predict with certainty what he’ll do this week.

Kyle Stanley

Stanley is not getting it done with any club right now, has just one top-25 this season and has missed 8 of 18 cuts. At Colonial, he’s missed the cut the last two years and has been outside the top 25 the previous two years. He got his only Tour win back in 2012 and, unfortunately for him, another doesn’t look likely in the immediate future.

Y.E. Yang

With just one top-25 on the year, Yang offers very little in terms of fantasy value. On Colonial’s course, it is the same. He has missed the cut 4 of the 5 times he entered, and statistically, while he’ll keep it in the fairway, he’s not even sniffing greens, ranking 151st in GIR. There may be a course for him somewhere, but this isn’t it.

Harris English

I’m interested to see if English can get back on track this week after missed cuts in three of his last four starts (The Masters, The Players, HP Byron Nelson) because other than that he’d been on a tear. It’s hard to sustain focus during the summer months, and English is still a young player. Off the tee, he needs to improve his accuracy, but he does rank 34th in total driving. He’s third in GIR, but putting isn’t his specialty. English missed the cut last year, but he did finish T5 the year before in his debut. So really it comes down to where’s his game at, and the last few weeks indicate he’s a bit off. 

Martin Laird

This season has gone poorly for Laird, who has missed the cut in four of his last five tournaments entered. With just one round in the 60s since the first week of February, the Scot isn’t a pick to go low this week. He finished T54 last year and T10 the two previous times entered (’11, ’10), but he also wasn’t beating it around like he is now. If your game is sharp, you can compete. If it’s not, you won’t. Laird’s isn’t.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to discuss the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, the upcoming U.S. Open (never too soon) or sift through the myriad of fantasy tomfoolery rolling around the ol’ gray matter. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Kuchar (S), A. Scott

Group B: Z. Johnson (S), J. Furyk (S), G. DeLaet, D. Johnson

Group C: R. Palmer (S), B. Weekley

(Last week: 165 points; Spring segment: 1,087; Spring rank: 1,295; Season points: 3,080; Full Season rank: 617 – 99th percentile)

PGATour.com

Z. Johnson, J. Furyk, P. Casey, M. Kuchar

(Last week: 199 points; Season: 5,148; Rank: 3,995)

Golf Channel

Crowne Plaza Invitational

Group 1: Z. Johnson

Group 2: G. DeLaet

Group 3: B. Harman

Group 4: R.H. Lee

BMW PGA Championship

Group 1: S. Garcia

Group 2: M. Jimenez

Group 3: S. Lowry

Group 4: E. Molinari

(Last week: $238,265; Season: $9,263,115; Mulligan: $86,710; Rank: 9,614 of 39,168)