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Jordan Spieth: Great, but young Tiger he is not

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Standing on the eighth tee at Augusta National on Sunday, Jordan Spieth was the Masters leader by two strokes. It was looking very much like the 20-year-old could supplant Tiger Woods as the youngest winner of the tournament Bobby Jones started in 1934.

Of course, by the time Spieth made it to the 10th tee, he trailed leader Bubba Watson by two, thanks to a pair of bogeys, and eventually finished tied for second. And while he didn’t mount a back-nine charge, Spieth didn’t fold either, stringing together eight pars and just one bogey over the final nine holes.

In basketball, fans and talking heads have been engaged in the project of finding “the next Jordan” since late in His Airness’ career. In the world of golf, panic is emerging about the PGA Tour P.T.W., or Post Tiger Woods, and the quest for his successor is on in full.

It seems logical, given Jordan Spieth’s near-miss at the Masters, to ask if the young Texan might be the heir apparent to Mr. Woods. Of course, Rory McIlroy, just 24 and twice a major champion, will surely take issue with his exclusion from this discussion.

Let’s tap the brakes a bit.

jordan-spieth-masters-

Just as there hasn’t been a next Jordan, there’s even less likely to be a next Tiger Woods. Do you remember the climate 20 years ago? When Tiger came to the Masters as an amateur in 1996 and said he expected to win, we believed him!

Indeed, Woods set the golfing world on fire as a junior and arrived into a climate of expectation and enthusiasm that’s unlikely to ever be seen again. The steady march, which began when young Tiger hopped from his high chair and imitated his father’s swing, with its resultant fervor and expectation that (as Arnold Palmer himself said) the young golfer from Cypress, Calif., would one day have more majors than Nicklaus and Palmer combined, is not going to be repeated.

We aren’t likely to have another father like Earl Woods, who anointed his son as a messianic figure not only in golf but in the world at large. Nor are we likely to have a captive audience that, again, believes this is somehow possible. We are never again going to see such foolishness as the famous Sports Illustrated “The Chosen One” article nor the early Tiger Woods Nike commercials.

However, as we prepare for the P.T.W. era, acknowledging that Woods’ slow decline began in late 2009 and could continue for the next 10 years (depending on what his battered body allows him to do), Jordan Spieth has shone as brightly as any golfer, save for Rory McIlroy at the 2011 Masters (for three rounds at least) and the 2011 U.S. Open.

The essential point of distinction between Spieth and McIlroy is that the latter fired a final-round 80 after entering Sunday with the lead at Augusta. Spieth, for his part, carded an even-par 72 but was beaten by Bubba Watson. Despite untidiness early, Spieth didn’t shoot himself in the foot Sunday. In 2011, McIlroy committed a gruesome act of seppuku.

Does this mean Spieth is ready to hop in Tiger Woods’ throne? Not exactly. However, he (along with McIlroy) seems due to succeed El Tigre as the face of the PGA Tour. Neither golfer can have the transcendent faculty or crossover appeal of Woods, but that isn’t their fault.

Sticking to what can be quantified, let’s look at a few points of comparison between the two prior to their first seasons on Tour and between their maiden campaigns.

tiger-woods-1997-

Comparing amateur records

Tiger Woods’ amateur record will likely never be equaled. Although Jordan Spieth was a very good amateur and became the only golfer since Woods to win the U.S. Junior Amateur twice and sat atop the Rolex rankings as the best amateur in the world, these achievements are a far cry from what Tiger was able to do as an amateur.

Woods won three consecutive U.S. Junior Amateurs and three consecutive U.S. Amateurs.

Think about that for a second.

There’s absolutely no comparison between what Spieth did as an amateur and what Tiger did. The chasm between Woods and the next-best amateur golfer in recent memory is even larger than the one between him and any current PGA Tour player.

Comparing first seasons

Last year, in his first season on Tour, Jordan Spieth competed in 23 events. He made 18 cuts, won once and finished second three times. He notched nine top-10 finishes as well. In 1997, Tiger’s first full season on Tour, he competed in 21 events. Woods made 20 cuts, winning the Masters and three other tournaments. Like Spieth, he finished inside the top 10 nine times.

Another important detail regarding their respective first PGA Tour campaigns: At the beginning of the 1997 season, Woods was 21. Spieth, for his part, was 19. While this doesn’t level the playing field, it is a significant credit to what Jordan Spieth has been able to accomplish on Tour before he can legally sit at the bar in the grill room of the venues at which he plays and order a beer.

Tiger Woods’ Masters win and the manner in which he won are significant points of differentiation between the golfers, as are the multiple victories. However, the fact that Woods was two years older than Jordan Spieth during his first full season as a PGA Tour member is the item that tips the scales in Spieth’s favor more than any other.

Also, Spieth finished second in his first Masters appearance. Woods, who competed as an amateur for the first time at Augusta in 1995, tied for 41st. This is hugely significant.

jordan-spieth-masters-2

Comparing key stats

Let’s see what the numbers indicate — namely, Spieth’s and Woods’ stats from their respective freshman campaigns.

Obviously, significantly fewer stats were kept in the pre-ShotLink era. Still, the first point of comparison is that Tiger was nearly five yards longer off the tee in his rookie season — 294.8 yards vs. Spieth’s 289.4 — while using a steel-shafted Titleist driver with a head that seems like it’s a quarter of the size of drivers in play today.

Spieth was also less accurate off the tee last year than Woods was in 1997. However, as is the trend, Woods was 80th on Tour in 1997, hitting 68.6 percent of fairways. Spieth placed 18th last year, even though he only found the short grass 67.8 percent of the time.

There’s a healthy gap between Woods of ’97 and Spieth of ’13 in the greens-in-regulation department as well. Tiger hit 70.3 percent of all greens in regulation, whereas Spieth hit 66.9.

Looking at the two golfers’ scoring averages: Woods’ average for 1997 was 69.1, while Spieth’s last season was 69.6. That’s a sizable difference over the four rounds of a golf tournament.

Still, the golfing world is right to be excited about Jordan Spieth. Beyond the stats above or the fact that he won a PGA Tour event at 19 years of age, the resolve he showed down the stretch at Augusta in his first appearance (even while being visibly frustrated), the way he said all the right things in interviews, and his humility and work ethic should pay serious dividends in the near future.

This quote from the young golfer after his final round stood out: “I’m hungry. That was fun, but at the same time it hurts right now. I didn’t come out on top, but I can take a lot of positives away.”

Spieth wants to win. He enjoys the spotlight. He hates to lose. He keeps perspective and stays positive. The quote sounds like something another young Tour star might have said nearly 20 years ago.

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44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. Mike K.

    Jul 13, 2015 at 1:21 am

    Nicklaus remains the greatest ever. 18>14 by a long shot. When one also considers Nicklaus’s far greater number of runner-up finishes in majors; the much better competition from top opponents Jack faced throughout his career; and the fact that Nicklaus finished in the top ten at Augusta at age 58, with only one good hip, one can see that it’s really not much contest. Then, when one takes into account Nicklaus’s far superior on-course demeanor AND vastly superior conduct in his private life – well, the discussion’s over, isn’t it?

    So, while Woods might yet have another major, or even two, in him, Nicklaus is the one to whom Spieth, and all others, will be compared. So everyone check back in about thirty years, when it will actually make sense to have this conversation.

  2. Brad Ingarfield

    Apr 26, 2014 at 10:18 pm

    Great young player. Will he move the needle? – Brad Ingarfield

  3. Golfraven

    Apr 18, 2014 at 5:56 pm

    No golfer will reach same status and money Tiger did manage over the past 15 years. We unlikely will see another games manufacturer bringing out games named after golfers, or did someone see already ‘Bubba’s Golf 2014’ ? What we will see are young golfers coming on the tour and inspire next generations. Soon no kid will say he wants to play like Tiger – more like Rickey or Spieth. Sadly the kid named Rory tried to walk in Tigers shoes and failed so far – he still has talent to go big.

  4. Chris Hale

    Apr 17, 2014 at 5:54 pm

    I would argue that the level of athleticism in the pro game has been elevated since Tiger burst on to the scene 20 years ago. As such, it’s impossible to legitimately compare what Tiger did at Augusta in 1997 to what Jordan did last week. Never mind the fact that they’ve made numerous changes to the golf course because of Tiger’s dominance, the 2014 Masters field is flat-out more competitive than the guys Tiger beat in 1997. Tiger has raised the bar (and paycheck) for every tour player and made professional golf a far more competitive enterprise than it’s ever been. Just think about how good the “next Tiger” will need to be in order to elevate the game in the same way.

    In that light, I give Jordan Speith enormous respect for ascending to where he has at the age of 20. I’m excited to watch him.

  5. Cole

    Apr 16, 2014 at 9:46 pm

    He’s no Tiger, but I like that he’s out competing the next week.

  6. cole

    Apr 16, 2014 at 8:08 pm

    No Tiger, But I like to see him out the week after!

  7. ken

    Apr 16, 2014 at 6:31 pm

    I cannot stand these player comparisons. “He’s the next( fill in the blank)…
    Tiger Woods is who he his. Jordan Spieth is not even the same type player.
    As far as predicting the future? Spieth could undergo a slight swing tweak and wreck his game for an entire season. Sound familiar?
    Let’s just enjoy watching Spieth play golf and let the putts fall where they may.

  8. Jon Bon Jovi

    Apr 16, 2014 at 6:24 pm

    Can Jordan Speith even be compared to Rory Mcilroy? Those 2 players aren’t in the same class. Jordan Speith is a good player, but he’s not even a Mcilroy, nevermind a Tiger Woods for god sake.

    • leftright

      Apr 16, 2014 at 8:28 pm

      Speith is currently a better player than McIlroy, care to compare stats for the past year. No, Speith doesn’t have the major wins but currently he could give Rory 1 a side.

  9. Dan

    Apr 16, 2014 at 5:53 pm

    And where exactly would the game of golf be if Tiger Woods never existed? Would young players have not played the game? Would they not be benefiting from fitness and technology just the same?

    As far as I know golf has been on TV every weekend during the season long before Tiger Woods. They would still be making loads of money. I’m sure no one would have said “Y’know I just dont think that playing golf for a living is going to be worthwhile”.

    Golf rounds in the US have declined precipitously since 2001. Oh Tiger please save Golf!!!!!!!!!!!! Where are you Tiger? Perhaps the “World of Golf” isnt quite panicking as much as the golf media is panicking. Might actually have to go dig up some stories and really are there many big stories that dont involve the more negative things in life? Infidelity, sex, PEDs, racist remarks, feuds, etc, etc. How is Tiger so good for golf with all these “negative” stories that have never been a part of this game?

    I spend several thousand dollars yearly on golf and golf products, and I’m not panicking.

    How exactly has he influenced the game? His fist pumps are the main highlights that ESPN shows? Let me ask another question, if Tiger Woods were not black, would he have the same “cult of personality” ? And in no way is this meant to be racist, we simply tend to focus on the differences and not the similarities. He’s a golfer, I’m a golfer. I dont think he’s a nice guy, I get sick of hearing about him when he’s NOT playing but I’ll be the first to tell you he WAS physically and mentally stronger than anyone on tour during his winning years

    Did Nicklaus, statistically being the greatest Major champion the game has ever seen, garner the level of attention that the media has placed on Tiger Woods? He should have, no? he won the most Majors, and alot of tournaments.

    No he didnt, and there are 2 reasons why. First as much as Jack won, there were plenty of others winning 4+ Majors at the same time. Player, Trevino, Palmer, Watson, Seve, Floyd…….Els, Phil and Vijay would not have been considered “great” at this time. (maybe Phil…) 14 looks like alot compared to 5,4. Maybe 18 doesnt look as much compared to 9, 8, 7, 5. Maybe Jack’s greatness is undervalued. Maybe Tiger played lesser competition.

    Second, we didnt have the freaking Internet so that the absolute minutiae of every single issue could turned into a non-stop news conference back then, have every word, gesture, smile, frown, the subject of a panel discussion. And having a single icon associated with a sport wasnt important then, but seems to be an absolute necessity now. Why does Tiger need an heir? I’d rather see 10 equally talented guys go at it and every week a new drama.

    I dont dispute that Tiger Woods is a great golfer in my book he’s still #2, but he’s not the only one and he’s not the game of golf. Yeah i know he WAS the latest, greatest, what ever, but put the pipe down already.

    Maybe, just maybe the “world of Golf” should stop hanging on this guys underwear and worrying about PTW (so funny there are initials for it already) and selling the “new Guys”.

    PS I go to golf media outlets to get golf commentary, certainly not NPR and the ny times. Expected better here.

    • leftright

      Apr 16, 2014 at 8:29 pm

      Tiger is “black.” The world, especially America is ate up with patronization of blacks and Arabs. Wait until some Arab guy makes the tour. He will be the second coming of Jack Nicklaus, even he if can’t bust an egg.

      • lh95

        Apr 16, 2014 at 10:42 pm

        Was anyone excited about Arjun Atwal or Jeev MIlka Singh? They are Indian (technically not Arab but most of America would know that) and no one really cares. Tiger was big because America is/was racist and he wasn’t welcome at many of the courses where was winning tournaments.

        The next coming of Jack is going to be someone who wins 10+ majors whether they are black, white or brown. There will be no second coming of Tiger.

        • SBoss

          Apr 20, 2014 at 4:51 pm

          There WILL be a player that comes along better than Tiger and Jack. We don’t know when but its always a matter of time in sports. It’s foolish to think otherwise.
          This whole American “is/was racist” thing is all nonsense about why Tiger was idolized. Yes, he brought minorities into golf. But, he brought a lot of interest period. Now, he’s still drawing the same interest level but many hate him (no, not because he’s a minority although I’m sure the victim mentally will run wild) because he’s polarizing.
          Tiger is not a great dude off the course. I worked a major and he blew kids off and didn’t tip anybody involved with the event. A bunch of people sort balls every day from the range and ensure that each player’s balls are ready for the next session on the range. Phil tipped them all $100 a day. Tiger didn’t tip a nickel all week to anyone. He’s moody and arrogant. He’s certainly not the only one (Vijay can give him a run for major jerk) but it’s a factor in why some can’t stand him.

  10. Rich

    Apr 16, 2014 at 5:13 pm

    Who’s Jordan Spieth? I thought Patrick Reed was The next big thing? We’ll that’s what he said anyway.

    • ken

      Apr 16, 2014 at 6:28 pm

      Looks like Reed’s mouth got in the way of his progress.
      If you remember, he shot off his mouth stating he thought of himself as in the top 5 in the world.
      Even his wife is in the act. She overheard a writer ask another writer who Reed was. Mrs Reed’s response, I cannot believe they don’t know my husband”.
      I have news for Patrick Reed. That news is “let your golf clubs do the talking”.

  11. Golfraven

    Apr 16, 2014 at 5:00 pm

    hey, give Spieth some respect, he worked his whole life to get there, though ge is only 20. Still I give him credit for being so bold – balls of steal. Nice chap. The tantrum on the 10 wasn’t great style and don’t think he is proude of it. However nothing compared to Tiger who is throwing clubs all the time.

  12. ShakeNBake

    Apr 16, 2014 at 4:41 pm

    It’s simply not a fair and reasonable comparison. This article is like comparing Michael Jordan’s first few NBA seasons to Kobe’s first few NBA seasons. Of course a 22 year old Michael was way better than an 18 year old Kobe. One guy was in his 20’s and the other was a teenager. Duh.

    Same thing with Spieth and Woods. One was a teenager when he got on tour and the other was in his 20’s. Let’s wait until Spieth turns 22. If he hasn’t won a Masters by then, maybe he isn’t the next tiger.

    Oh, and no one thought Woods was going win the Masters in 1996. Sorry, he didn’t even make the cut.

  13. Oldplayer

    Apr 16, 2014 at 4:31 pm

    I think Spieth is an amazing young talent. For a 20 years old he has great poise and confidence without arrogance. He has an extremely sound all round game.
    I do not think it is helpful to compare him with Tiger whose long hitting (early in his pro career) and clutch putting set him apart and gave him the edge that produced his dominance.
    Spieth displays qualities far more like Nicklaus than Tiger.
    Level headedness, sportsmanship, belief in his game, calmness under pressure etc. etc.
    I think that if Jordan Spieth is fortunate enough to not have his career derailed by misfortune or injury he has the real potential to become one of the best of all time.

  14. Colin

    Apr 16, 2014 at 3:58 pm

    It is unfair to compare Spieth to Tiger. Who has ever said they would have comparable careers? I think of Spieth as the American equivalent to Rory. I believe that comparison would be far more accurate.

  15. joe doaks

    Apr 16, 2014 at 1:01 pm

    let’s just let the kid play

  16. Elmo

    Apr 16, 2014 at 12:32 pm

    The seasons not over yet. This kid has two more years to do what Tiger technically did in his first. Tiger got to practice playing college golf and contending in US Amateurs. This was Speith’s first huge stage and contention. He has seven more majors to win at or before the age that Tiger did. We can all talk then.

  17. ReadingComp

    Apr 16, 2014 at 12:27 pm

    Great article, Ben. I found it interesting to see Tiger’s and Jordan’s stats side-by-side. As good as Jordan is, it’s truly unbelievable what Tiger has accomplished.

  18. Dan

    Apr 16, 2014 at 9:56 am

    So Sorry I even clicked on this rag of an article. Ben, you suffer from the same malady as the rest of the media…………Laziness!!!

    Tiger’s play has been a non-story for years now, except that the media has gotten so lazy covering Tiger, I mean its not like any one reporter develops a story anymore. Its just being repeated by different media outlets.

    I guess you couldnt find anything more interesting to do but “generate” a story.

    “It seems logical, given Jordan Spieth’s near-miss at the Masters, to ask if the young Texan might be the heir apparent to Mr. Woods.”

    I think you are the only person who has come to this conclusion and it shows how the media thinks: The sport itself is unimportant, having a personality to focus on is all that matters, is easy and self perpetuating.

    You have made my do not read list along the idiot Montesanto

    • Dan

      Apr 16, 2014 at 1:22 pm

      Sorry Ben, this is the first place I’ve heard anyone compare Spieth to Woods and judging by the rest of the posts on this article no one else has either.

      And oddly enough you don’t reference any of these “bold claims from seemingly every other outlet about the ascendancy of Mr Speith” in your article. In fact all I’ve heard is that “he’s young, he’s got a great swing, it’s a great start but has a long way to go”.

      And as long as you’re going to pull the Tiger “card”, where is the comparison to Nicklaus’ or Palmer’s early career, or is Tiger Woods the only golfer that matters?

      And of course we need to view Speith’s GIR and Fairways hit against Tiger’s in 97, but you dont mention that the course is 500 Yards longer than Woods played in ’97.

      The sooner you guys realize the days of Tiger are coming to an end, the better it will be for the game. And if he doesn’t eclipse Jack’s 18 Majors then you should start comparing players to Nicklaus, and not Woods. Maybe you should start now

      • corey

        Apr 16, 2014 at 2:23 pm

        Dan, Ben made it perfectly clear that he was not down playing what greatness speith has shown. Ben even states how speith rookie season was 2 yrs before tigers, so that makes what speith has done even better when compared to what tiger did in his rookie season. but love or hate tiger the game of golf would not be where it is without him. all these young golfers that are going to carry the game say they all looked up to the same person when they were starting out; that person was tiger. tiger gave the game a new look and brought in these young guns. so love him or hate him you get the pleasure to watch history in the making every time he tees up; whether it is chasing the all time wins or chasing jacks majors. but it is without question, and you’d be smoking something if you deny it, that tiger will go down as one of the top golfers in history and there is the argument to be made as the greatest of all time.

    • loubdoobe

      Apr 16, 2014 at 3:51 pm

      The media in general does not know the meaning of “moderation”. I could take Tiger or leave Tiger, I enjoy seeing guys play at this level-they are awesome. I want to puke when Tiger is not even near the lead and announcers continue to fawn and show footage of Tiger–who cares!

  19. Ron

    Apr 16, 2014 at 9:31 am

    We’ll see how he stacks up when we find out how many women he can handle at one time. Tiger has set the bar pretty high!

  20. T

    Apr 15, 2014 at 11:24 pm

    nobody of any intelligence considered Jordan the new Tiger. He’s a fantastic young talent that surprised many with his performance last year especially considering his status. Remember, there were many who thought he was making a mistake turning pro at 19. Regardless, while most expected him to eventually be successful, what he continues to do is compete and contend and the win aside I think the Masters performance is his greatest achievement so far. I’m glad you recognized his even par final round was not a choke…those who do are wrong.

  21. Tim Mooney

    Apr 15, 2014 at 11:18 pm

    Ben:

    I think you may be looking in the wrong direction. I conjure up a vision of Palmer v. Nicklaus with your reference to McIlroy v. Speith. I think that this duo stands to do more for golf, combined, than we’ve seen in a couple of decades.

    Most purists, I dare say, would love to see Tiger rise again, however, I believe that even more would relish in a rivalry of playing ability between the two ‘youngsters’, Just think what could happen over the next 15-20 years to the popularity of the game, should that rivalry come to fruition?

    • Eric

      Apr 16, 2014 at 1:11 pm

      Spieth vs Mcilroy, USA vs Europe, Nike vs UA! Tiger who? We will likely see it at the Ryder cup and it will start something big for golf. Could you imagine the money and advertising that Nike and UA would throw at such a campaign? UA has taken tremendous market share from Nike, especially in men under 40 and they own the youth boys segment. For the commenter that asked why it cannot be about the sport, the answer is simple. Professional sports are about the fans who allow the sport to be. If we don’t watch, there is no sport and we all like heros and villains. All this of course depends on Mcilroy remembering how to play the game and not becoming another Sergio.

  22. Brandel Stumblee

    Apr 15, 2014 at 11:09 pm

    This article is garbage. What Jordan Spieth did was amazing. Even Nicklaus stumbled in his first major at cherry hills and went on to win a lot after learning how to win. The author of this garbage did get one thing right in that Spieth is not Woods, Tiger was on a couch like most of the world watching to see if Jordan could do it. Spieth will be a nice addition to the Ryder Cup team.

  23. west

    Apr 15, 2014 at 11:00 pm

    I can’t believe I read this dribble…

  24. SBoss

    Apr 15, 2014 at 10:41 pm

    Why does every really good young player have to be compared to Tiger Woods? It diminishes a great young talent who also happens to be a nice kid.

    Why can’t Jordan Spieth just be…Jordan Spieth? What he’s done is less than one year is staggering and should be fully appreciated without the “but he’s not Tiger Woods” nonsense.

    • west

      Apr 15, 2014 at 11:00 pm

      Absolutely, spot on!

    • MHendon

      Apr 15, 2014 at 11:08 pm

      I couldn’t agree more and the one thing he has that Tiger has never show is a touch of humility.

      • Taylor

        Apr 16, 2014 at 7:41 am

        Really, still hung up on the cheating on his wife thing? Remember when he hugged his dad crying after winning the masters. Personal life aside, I think Tiger for golf did nothing wrong.

        • Mike

          Apr 16, 2014 at 11:13 am

          @Taylor – Who said anything about the “cheating on his wife thing”? He said ‘humility”, not “honor”.

      • loubdoobe

        Apr 16, 2014 at 3:46 pm

        ….not to mention character and moral integrity.

    • paul

      Apr 16, 2014 at 12:00 am

      Greatness needs comparison to be great. And writers need articles to write for our entertainment and thought.

      • SBoss

        Apr 16, 2014 at 8:20 am

        Spieth is not great at this point. He may be great at some point in the future. So, comparing Spieth to Woods is misguided. It’s not comparing “great to great”.
        Why diminish the early accomplishments of a good young player whose climbed the PGA Tour ladder in rapid fashion and almost won a Masters at 20 years old?

        • Dan

          Apr 16, 2014 at 5:06 pm

          Why? Because the golfing media is addicted to Tiger Woods. It makes it very easy for them to call attention to their story if they make about Tiger Woods.

        • leftright

          Apr 16, 2014 at 8:42 pm

          Speith could give Tiger one a side at the same age…no comparison. Read a damn history book for God’s sake.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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