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Analyzing Jordan Spieth’s weekend troubles

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10 years ago

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This past weekend, Jordan Spieth had a share of the lead at The Players Championship going into Sunday before shooting a 74 and finishing tied for 4th. This brought up discussion of Spieth having “collapses” on Sunday, and sparked my interest in seeing what was giving the young superstar issues on the final day. In the end, I found some interesting pieces to the puzzle along with some very typical trends of players that have a tendency to struggle on the weekend.

For starters, his poor play in final rounds has been greatly exaggerated. Here is a look at Spieth’s rankings in scoring average by round, out of 199 players:

Photo 1

Round 3 has given Spieth more issues than Round 4 this season. Here is a look at his scores by event, and I highlighted the weekend scores where he shot greater than 72.

Photo 2

The numbers show that Spieth’s Round 4 “collapses” are overblown. In fact, if he was able to perform better in Round 3 this year, he likely would have come away with at least one victory in 2014 and performed much better in at least three different events.

What we do see is that Spieth is a terrific golfer in Rounds 1 and 2. This is critical to any golfer’s success in events, as there is a very strong mathematical correlation to playing well earlier in an event and having success in that event. For the Tour, it is very clear that Round 1 scoring average has the greatest correlation to success on Tour. That is followed directly behind Round 2 scoring average. There is then is a large drop off when we look at the correlation between success on Tour and Round 3 scoring average. And Round 4 Scoring Average has the lowest correlation to success on Tour of all of the scoring averages by round.

Recently, I took a look at this for state amateur events that were at least two rounds in California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, and the same correlations occurred. Playing well early gives golfers the best chance to win the event. And too many golfers, be it amateurs or professionals, try to play too conservatively early in events in order to ease their way in. This is why Spieth has been so successful this year despite his weekend struggles. He gets himself off to good starts and puts himself in a good position to win the event.

Despite Spieth’s Sunday struggles being exaggerated, I did find some parts of his game that are very typical of Tour players who have issues with performance on the weekend. Here’s a look at Spieth’s key metrics this season versus last season:

Photo 3-1

What is interesting about Spieth is that while his 2013 metrics were outstanding, he is actually a better short game player and putter this season. But, his driving has badly regressed and this is the most common trend of Tour players that tend to play worse on the weekend compared to Thursday and Friday. Here’s a look at Spieth’s driving metrics:

Photo 4

Spieth’s accuracy and precision off the tee is the biggest reason for his decline in his driving effectiveness and it is a common trend of golfers who tend to have issues playing on the weekend. But, it is also important to take note of his distance metrics.

First, his 2014 rankings are based out of 199 players while his 2013 rankings are based out of 180 players. Here is how his distance rankings compared the past two seasons:

Photo 5

Measured drives are the old fashioned way to measure distance where the Tour uses two holes to measure the drive for each round. This is a fairly important metric, as it is usually done on holes where 95 percent of the golfers will hit driver on that hole. Distance on “all drives” is measured with a laser from ShotLink. When we combine these metrics, we can get an idea of how aggressive the player is off the tee because the rankings should be pretty much the same.

For Spieth, he ranks much better in the All Drives category than the Measured Drives category. This indicates he is fairly aggressive off the tee and does not lay up very often. However, I have some concerns with his distance on “measured drives.” It has dropped noticeably from last year, which indicates he is not hitting it as far when he is pulling out the driver. With that, I want to take a look at his radar metrics to see what the possible changes are this year:

Photo 6

It appears that Spieth may be trying to hit his driver with more of an upward attack angle, because his launch angle and max height are up while his spin rate is lower. The other thing I noticed is that he went from having a rightward-miss bias to a leftward-miss bias. None of these radar metrics are “bad” per say, but I feel it has created a different ball flight and he is struggling to adjust to that.

If there is a large concern for me, it is that typically the most effective drivers of the ball on Tour have kept their spin rate between 2,400-and-2,800 rpm. For Tour players, spin rates that are too low can cause accuracy issues, and Spieth is lowering his spin rate instead of increasing it a bit. Perhaps it is all being done to increase distance off the tee, but he is actually hitting his measured drives shorter this season and is so much less accurate off the tee that he is nowhere near as effective off the tee as he was last year.

And his accuracy issues off the tee have spilled over into his approach shot play. While he is still a very good iron player, his regression is largely due to having less approach shots from the short grass.

Photo 7

So, Spieth’s skill on approach shots has not really changed as much as he is leaving himself with shots that have a higher degree of difficulty.

Lastly, while Spieth has putted well overall this year, there is a key putting metric that he has struggled with that is common in golfers that regress on the weekend:

Photo 8

The reason for Spieth ranking well in strokes gained-putting is that he is a very good putter from 5-to-25 feet. His weakness putting is from 3-to-5 feet. So on the weekends, his struggles with accuracy off the tee are not helped by his inability to consistently make those knee knockers.

I don’t believe that Spieth should be given the “choker” label. As the first set of metrics show, he has actually played pretty well on Sundays this year and Saturdays have been much more problematic. Spieth was not very good from 3-to-5 feet last year, and that will likely be a more difficult issue for him to resolve since he has yet to prove that he can putt well from that distance. However, the bigger issue is with his driving and whether it is a swing mechanics issue, an equipment issue or both.

Spieth should look to get his launch monitor data closer to last year, because he was actually longer with the driver in 2013 and far more accurate which made him a far more effective driver of the ball.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. leftright

    May 14, 2014 at 8:06 pm

    I will say one thing about my observations of the sports world in the last 4 decades…the armchair quarterbacking is getting out of hand. People who can’t bust an egg commenting on Jordon Speith’s golf game. The only choke they know about is what they do on a 2 foot putt on a $5 nassau bet or the snap hook when the going gets tough on the local muni. When I was 20 I was chasing tail and even though I was a scratch golfer…I didn’t care. No one that is a member of WRX has earned the right to even comment on Jordon Speith’s golf game. Admire it and shut up.

    Reply Report comment

    • Jadon

      May 15, 2014 at 10:01 am

      haha love this, too bad this is the internet. It would be fun to watch Jordan win a hometown event this week.

      Reply Report comment

  2. Tommy

    May 14, 2014 at 2:26 pm

    I’m a huge Jordan Spieth fan, but I understand why people think he’s choking. In both the Masters and the Players, his play fell off significantly AFTER he took leads early in the final round. Or rather, his play levels off. And in both cases, he hasn’t bounced back well from perceived bad breaks where he’s hit the shot he wanted to but the result wasn’t good.

    I wouldn’t call it choking so much as learning how to handle himself in those situations. His issues have just been magnified by the high profile of the events.

    Even in his win at the John Deere, he never had the lead during the final round, I don’t think. And he won in the playoff when others missed very makeable shots.

    I’m hoping he figures it out, and he should have plenty of chances to.

    Reply Report comment

    • Nick

      May 15, 2014 at 5:13 pm

      I think its just a maturity thing. Dude is 20. It’s a rare breed that doesn’t have to work hard to manage that pressure. No doubt he’ll be in the winner’s circle soon.

      Reply Report comment

  3. Clarence von Aspern

    May 14, 2014 at 12:13 pm

    Jordan’s problems on Sunday’s round were simply related to his aggressive approach shots taking aim at some difficult pin placements and recovery shot/club selection when he missed the green. He’s only 20 and is absolutely on his way to becoming a dominate player. He’s moving in the right direction … look out Tiger!

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  4. mitch

    May 13, 2014 at 6:32 pm

    Awesome stats! Although Jordan Spieth is wonderful talent, he doesn’t possess the power nor world class skills to warrant anyone to think that he will be a multiple winner year in and year out on tour. Statistically speaking he doesn’t have an attribute that has the wow factor like a Dustin Johnson or Fred Funk. That said, he is still young and in theory barring any injuries or major hiccups can become a great player. When you watch Rory, you knew there was something special about him, Jordan doesn’t come across as that special someone, at least not yet…

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    • Mike

      May 15, 2014 at 9:40 am

      Wow factor as in, “Wow, Dustin, I can’t believe you hit an iron OB to lose The Open Championship.” Or, “Wow, Dustin, you didn’t even read the rules sheet to know that was a bunker?”

      Maybe you are thinking of Paulina. BTW, I never knew Fred Funk had a “wow” factor. Fill us in, please.

      Reply Report comment

  5. Dave

    May 13, 2014 at 10:09 am

    Interesting analysis. I also think it’s crazy to label him a choker. Such a talented kid. Regarding scoring stats, your analysis compares his scores relative to himself in other rounds, and it does appear he’s avoiding blow-ups in the final round, but it doesn’t really show if he’s performing in the final round relative to the competition. I’d be interested to see how his final round scores compare to the average (or other metric) score of those who eventually finish in the top 20, top 10, top 5, or even the winners of each event. Might not tell a story at all, but could possibly show if he is being outplayed be the competition instead of “collapsing”…

    Reply Report comment

  6. somesun

    May 12, 2014 at 11:04 pm

    Just another case of making the numbers tell a fantastic story. Though you make the case for poor driving, and poor putting from 5ft and in, it seems he ranked quite highly in these areas in the players championship.

    Reply Report comment

  7. Norm Platt

    May 12, 2014 at 8:59 pm

    Good article Rich. There’s a saying in sports that numbers don’t lie. Spieth has done very well for the short time he has been on tour. Because golf is a game of mistakes/misses it appears Spieth is still on a learning curve. I come from a pro hockey background where you are able to see the development of elite young players from about 18 or 19.
    I still think that Spieth is probably growing/adjusting to his body and in the next couple of years when his growth stops he will not only get stronger but get more comfortable with his frame.
    Players like Michelle Wie and now Lydia Ko are good studies. Ko is clearly an elite athlete who will probably grow a bit more and get much stronger. Michelle Wie was smart to go to school and let her body “rest and recuperate” from being on tour too early. And you can see the changes in Rory McIlroys frame over the last two years.
    Tiger Woods is the obvious most “enhanced “frame who went from a ecto/meso frame to almost exclusive mesomorphic frame. Hence the joint stress injuries from being so strong for an ectomorphic frame.
    As Spieth matures and becomes more adjusted to the tour there’s a strong possibility he will be rewarded with some wins rather than close top 5 finishes. This is assuming he will improve physically over the next 5 years.

    Reply Report comment

  8. Jadon

    May 12, 2014 at 4:44 pm

    Wow, very interesting information. It might be time to put a new driver in play, ditch the 910, and get those spin numbers up. I remember hearing on golf channel that he was working with his coach to add some distance with the driver in the off season. It looks like he did pick up some club head speed but any club manufacturer (except for taylormade lol) will tell you that accuracy is much more important than distance.

    As for the “choker” label, that’s a joke. This kid is a stud. I can’t wait for him to win a big one and silence that garbage and it won’t be very long if he keeps playing as well as he has been. Insane talent for a 20 year old kid.

    Reply Report comment

  9. 4pillars

    May 12, 2014 at 3:26 pm

    Lets hope he reads this abd takes action, rather than accepting the lable of choker.

    Reply Report comment

  10. Jedidiah

    May 12, 2014 at 3:24 pm

    Cutie

    Reply Report comment

    • John Butler

      May 14, 2014 at 9:18 am

      Statistics or not, we seem to be forgetting that Jordan is 20 years old. Think of our mental state when we were that age. In my case and probably some of yours, it was “Cigarettes, whiskey and wild wild women”.

      Reply Report comment

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Forum Giveaway: TaylorMade P7CB “Proto” irons

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Jul 22, 2024

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GolfWRX and TaylorMade Golf have teamed up for one of the most exciting giveaways in recent memory. We are giving away one (1) set (3-PW) of the P7CB “Proto” irons, built to order for one lucky forum member! These yet-to-be-released irons have recently made it into the bag for both Tommy Fleetwood and Collin Morikawa.

Collin Morikawa’s TaylorMade “proto” 4-iron

Do we really need to say more? Head over to the forum and enter now for your chance to win a set of irons that truly are 1 of 1.

Read more about the P7CB “Proto” irons

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CGOTY? It’s X at The Open at Royal Troon

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1 day ago

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Jul 21, 2024

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If golfers weren’t as humble as they are, they’d come up with trendy acronyms like G.O.A.T. and E.G.O.T #CGOTY would then stand for Champion Golf of the Year, the appellation that the Royal and Ancient confers upon its Open champion. As written, we are a humble lot, so there’s no need for such acronyms.

The Champion Golfer of the Year for 2024 is Xander Schauffele. He won his second major title of the year, having claimed the PGA Championship in May. The Open Championship is his third career win in a major, as Schauffele won the 2021 gold medal at the Olympics in Japan.

Over on TwitterX, I’ve made the claim that Royal Troon identifies one-off major champions better than any other course in the Open Championship rotation. Of its ten previous winners, seven never claimed a second major title. I suggested that Thirston Lawrence, Billy Horschel, and Russell Henley were as likely to win the jug as the other pursuers. Lowry, Schauffele, Rose, and others already held major trophies aloft. For most of the day, it looked as if another first-timer would join the ranks.

Before we get to that news, let’s chip away at some of the sub-headings.

The Silver Medalist

Eponymy’s Calum Scott (of Scotland) will recall the third week of July, 2024, with a special fondness. The Texas Tech (same school as Ludvig Aberg) earned a silver medal as the low amateur (LAGOTY?) at Royal Troon. Scott finished on eight over par, tied for overall 43rd place.

Spain’s Luis Masaveu came fourth among the wageless, posting +18 on the week. Tied for 2nd among the paupers were Amateur champion Jacob Skov Olesen of Denmark, and Tommy Morrison of the USA. Morrison had the day’s low round among the quartet, posting a 73.

There were plenty of highly-ranked amateurs at Royal Troon when the week began. One by one, they fell away. A tip of the cap to the winner of the silver medal.

The Weather

Essentially, it was a non-factor on day four. There was wind, but there’s always wind. There was zero rain, and after the first two hours in the early morning, the warmth arrived.

The Postage Stamp

Here’s the rub: if you’re playing well and with confidence, it’s a non-issue. It’s a wonderful little hole and, at 100 yards, it gave enough pause to consider going for the stick. Where the hole was on Sunday, there was no sense. Flight the shot between Coffin bunker and the hole, and take your chance with the flat stick. On day four, only Billy Horschel among the top six made bogey. Rose and Lowry had birdie, and the others made par. For Horschel, the four was just enough to throw him off his game, and even his closing burst would not prove to be enough.

The Chasers

Hats off to Justin Rose and Billy Horschel. They posted five birdies over their combined closing three. Rose found birdie at 16 and 18, to keep the pressure on his partner. Horschel closed with even more fire, reclaiming three shots for a career-best, runner-up in a major.

At day’s start, either one might have taken the 67 (Rose) or 68 (Horschel) and said that shall be enough to win. Horschel etched the same number of birdies (six) onto his card as did the winner, but he had those three crucial bogeys, at three, eight, and ten, to delay his progress just enough. As for Rose, he hoped to add a silver jug to his silver medal from 1998, as well as become the first qualifier to claim the crown in some time. Rose posted five birdies against one bogey, and could not have played much better golf. Trouble was, he ran into all that is formidable in his playing companion.

And there were others with admirable Sunday performances. Ryan Fox had 67, to move inside the top 25. Thriston Lawrence took the lead at the turn, held steady with 68, and earned a solo 4th finish for his labor. With the exception of Scottie Scheffler (72) all inside the top ten posted scores under par. On this day, it took 65 to stand out from the crowd.

The Champion

That 65 mentioned above, well, it belonged to the CGOTY.

Who knows when the switch flips? Ever more, who knows how to do it? When Xander Schauffele claimed Olympic Gold in 2021, it was anticipated that another major title would follow soon after. 2022 and 2023 went by with no such result. At Valhalla in May, Schauffele found something and went from best to never win a major to won a major. Now he has two. Here’s how he got there.

Eerily similar was the tally: six under par. The only difference between May and July, was the bogey at the par-five tenth in Kentucky. Schauffele rebounded with three birdies coming home, including one at the last, to hold off Bryson DeChambeau by a single stroke. At Royal Troon, Schauffele was flawless. He posted six birdies against zero bogeys on day four. He drove the ball long and true, and putted for birdie on 16 of 18 holes. The California native was able to avoid the many sand pits that freckle the Royal Troon championship layout, ensuring that a pair of chip shots would be the only concerning moments.

With his second major of the year, Schauffele enters the conversation for golfer of the year. Scheffler has six wins on the year, including a major. If Xander can medal in Paris, and win once or twice on the PGA Tour, he just might add that recognition to today’s laurel.

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5 Things We Learned: Day 3 at The Open Championship

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Jul 20, 2024

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It’s like being a parent. You know what will happen, but you still need to let the circumstances play out. Once the idea of rain coming into the picture for Saturday afternoon was established, posit after posit came out. Get out early and post a number was the most popular and logical one. No matter how well the leaders start, the coming home will be merciless was a less-common one, but no less accurate.

Shane Lowry made birdie at the 4th hole to reach eight-under par. At that point, he had a three-shot advantage over his playing companion. He would get no farther. A tugged tee ball at eight led to a double bogey, and five more bogeys came his way. The most gutting came at number 18, a hole that he had played in six shots through two rounds. You might think that 77 on day three of a major championship would be a death knell, but Lowry is just three shots behind the leader. He’ll have a legitimate shot on Sunday, as will 13 other golfers.

Fourteen golfers are within five shots of Billy Horschel, the third-round leader. He’s at four-under par, despite weathering the worst of the weather. At least one of those fourteen will post a 65 on Sunday. It may not be enough. The 2024 major tournament season will end on Sunday, and should feature high drama. With that in mind, let’s sumarize Saturday in, oh, five things that we learned. How does that sound?

1. No one went away

As I alluded in the intro, no one in contention at the start of the day has gone adrift. Seven-under par had the lead after 36 holes, and four-deep (also alluded) is the new standard. I’ve been conservative in suggesting that five shots out is the most to be overcome. Circumstances dictate that someone six or seven back, with the correct mergin of fate and execution, could hoist the Claret Jug come Sunday evening, even if he has to play from the opposite side of the ball.

2. Billy Ho says Yo!

Why not Billy Ho? Why not, indeed! Horschel is a fit, focused, and talented golfer. He grabbed four shots from par on the outward nine, turning in 32. He shed grit and gravel coming home, finding a way to manage the inward side in 37 shots. Horschel has never held the solo lead in a professional major championship on the eve of decision day, so he’ll sleep differently tonight. Ultimately, how he and Micah Fugitt (his caddy) come to termsn with the reckoning, will decide his fate in the tournament.

3. Can Sugar Shane Lowry rebound?

2019 was a different set of circumstances for the 36-hole leader. He held a large lead through 54 holes, and he managed to claim a six-shot win over Tommy Fleetwood. Tonight, there might be some doubts. More likely, there will be frustration, followed by gratitude. Frustration at the shots that got away, most importantly the tee shot at Postage Stamp. That’s where the sweater began to unravel, as a visit to Coffin bunker led to his inglorious double bogey. Gratitude should follow, that he is but three in arrears, with a spot in the fifth-last game, paired with the affable Adam Scott. Look for Lowry to figure in the outcome.

4. This guy is due for a run

Justin Thomas has lit the front nine better than any other golfer this week. Wait, scratch that. He made five birdies heading away on both Thursday and Saturday. Friday was a different story, where he played the opening half as you or I would. What makes the difference? Who could possibly know. Will Justin Thomas make a run on Sunday afternoon? No, but Jason Day will. The Malbon Man will turn in six-under par 30. His problem is that he is eight shots back of Horschel, and has zero chance on Sunday. What his score will paint, however, is a picture of what might be, and that will serve to inspire those behind him.

5. How do you pick just one?

You don’t. Sam Burns and Thriston Lawrence posted 65 on day three, to move to three-under par. Russell Henley wasn’t far behind on the day, posting 66 to also reach 210 after 54 holes. Justin Rose and Daniel Brown had 73s but, like Lowry, they are still in the running. Xander Schauffele, the first-time major champion at the 2024 PGA Championship, is at three-deep as well. Oh, and the Masters champion, he of the fancy footwork, is but two off the lead. This is as deep and talented a group of challengers as we’ve seen in more than a minute. I won’t pick a winner today (I made my choice yesterday) but I do promise you that you will see more than one person’s share of fun shots like this one.

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