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Analyzing Jordan Spieth’s weekend troubles
This past weekend, Jordan Spieth had a share of the lead at The Players Championship going into Sunday before shooting a 74 and finishing tied for 4th. This brought up discussion of Spieth having “collapses” on Sunday, and sparked my interest in seeing what was giving the young superstar issues on the final day. In the end, I found some interesting pieces to the puzzle along with some very typical trends of players that have a tendency to struggle on the weekend.
For starters, his poor play in final rounds has been greatly exaggerated. Here is a look at Spieth’s rankings in scoring average by round, out of 199 players:
Round 3 has given Spieth more issues than Round 4 this season. Here is a look at his scores by event, and I highlighted the weekend scores where he shot greater than 72.
The numbers show that Spieth’s Round 4 “collapses” are overblown. In fact, if he was able to perform better in Round 3 this year, he likely would have come away with at least one victory in 2014 and performed much better in at least three different events.
What we do see is that Spieth is a terrific golfer in Rounds 1 and 2. This is critical to any golfer’s success in events, as there is a very strong mathematical correlation to playing well earlier in an event and having success in that event. For the Tour, it is very clear that Round 1 scoring average has the greatest correlation to success on Tour. That is followed directly behind Round 2 scoring average. There is then is a large drop off when we look at the correlation between success on Tour and Round 3 scoring average. And Round 4 Scoring Average has the lowest correlation to success on Tour of all of the scoring averages by round.
Recently, I took a look at this for state amateur events that were at least two rounds in California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, and the same correlations occurred. Playing well early gives golfers the best chance to win the event. And too many golfers, be it amateurs or professionals, try to play too conservatively early in events in order to ease their way in. This is why Spieth has been so successful this year despite his weekend struggles. He gets himself off to good starts and puts himself in a good position to win the event.
Despite Spieth’s Sunday struggles being exaggerated, I did find some parts of his game that are very typical of Tour players who have issues with performance on the weekend. Here’s a look at Spieth’s key metrics this season versus last season:
What is interesting about Spieth is that while his 2013 metrics were outstanding, he is actually a better short game player and putter this season. But, his driving has badly regressed and this is the most common trend of Tour players that tend to play worse on the weekend compared to Thursday and Friday. Here’s a look at Spieth’s driving metrics:
Spieth’s accuracy and precision off the tee is the biggest reason for his decline in his driving effectiveness and it is a common trend of golfers who tend to have issues playing on the weekend. But, it is also important to take note of his distance metrics.
First, his 2014 rankings are based out of 199 players while his 2013 rankings are based out of 180 players. Here is how his distance rankings compared the past two seasons:
Measured drives are the old fashioned way to measure distance where the Tour uses two holes to measure the drive for each round. This is a fairly important metric, as it is usually done on holes where 95 percent of the golfers will hit driver on that hole. Distance on “all drives” is measured with a laser from ShotLink. When we combine these metrics, we can get an idea of how aggressive the player is off the tee because the rankings should be pretty much the same.
For Spieth, he ranks much better in the All Drives category than the Measured Drives category. This indicates he is fairly aggressive off the tee and does not lay up very often. However, I have some concerns with his distance on “measured drives.” It has dropped noticeably from last year, which indicates he is not hitting it as far when he is pulling out the driver. With that, I want to take a look at his radar metrics to see what the possible changes are this year:
It appears that Spieth may be trying to hit his driver with more of an upward attack angle, because his launch angle and max height are up while his spin rate is lower. The other thing I noticed is that he went from having a rightward-miss bias to a leftward-miss bias. None of these radar metrics are “bad” per say, but I feel it has created a different ball flight and he is struggling to adjust to that.
If there is a large concern for me, it is that typically the most effective drivers of the ball on Tour have kept their spin rate between 2,400-and-2,800 rpm. For Tour players, spin rates that are too low can cause accuracy issues, and Spieth is lowering his spin rate instead of increasing it a bit. Perhaps it is all being done to increase distance off the tee, but he is actually hitting his measured drives shorter this season and is so much less accurate off the tee that he is nowhere near as effective off the tee as he was last year.
And his accuracy issues off the tee have spilled over into his approach shot play. While he is still a very good iron player, his regression is largely due to having less approach shots from the short grass.
So, Spieth’s skill on approach shots has not really changed as much as he is leaving himself with shots that have a higher degree of difficulty.
Lastly, while Spieth has putted well overall this year, there is a key putting metric that he has struggled with that is common in golfers that regress on the weekend:
The reason for Spieth ranking well in strokes gained-putting is that he is a very good putter from 5-to-25 feet. His weakness putting is from 3-to-5 feet. So on the weekends, his struggles with accuracy off the tee are not helped by his inability to consistently make those knee knockers.
I don’t believe that Spieth should be given the “choker” label. As the first set of metrics show, he has actually played pretty well on Sundays this year and Saturdays have been much more problematic. Spieth was not very good from 3-to-5 feet last year, and that will likely be a more difficult issue for him to resolve since he has yet to prove that he can putt well from that distance. However, the bigger issue is with his driving and whether it is a swing mechanics issue, an equipment issue or both.
Spieth should look to get his launch monitor data closer to last year, because he was actually longer with the driver in 2013 and far more accurate which made him a far more effective driver of the ball.
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Morning 9: Anthony Kim speaks | New TGL team | ANWA contenders
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 Valero Texas Open
GolfWRX is on site this week at the Valero Texas Open.
The event has been around since 1922, making it one of the oldest on the PGA Tour calendar. Over the years, it’s been held at a variety of courses across the Lone Star State, but it’s found its home at TPC San Antonio in recent years. Some of the biggest names in golf have taken home the title here, including Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan, Lee Trevino, and Ben Crenshaw.
GolfWRX has its usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs and special pull-out albums. As always, we’ll continue to update the links below as more photos come in from TPC San Antonio.
General Albums
WITB Albums
- Ben Taylor – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Paul Barjon – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Joe Sullivan – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Wilson Furr – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Ben Willman – SoTex PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Jimmy Stanger – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Rickie Fowler – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Harrison Endycott – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Vince Whaley – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Kevin Chappell – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Christian Bezuidenhout – WITB (mini) – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Scott Gutschewski – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
Pullout Albums
- Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Ben Taylor with new Titleist TRS 2 wood – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Swag cover – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Greyson Sigg’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Davis Riley’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Josh Teater’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Hzrdus T1100 is back – – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Mark Hubbard testing ported Titleist irons – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Tyson Alexander testing new Titleist TRS 2 wood – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Hideki Matsuyama’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Cobra putters – 2024 Valero Texas Open
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Tour Rundown: Jaeger is meister | Korda wins again
We’re getting to that time of year that all fans of golf embrace. The Augusta National Women’s Amateur begins this week, followed by the Masters at the end of the fortnight. Tours offer a full set of events, although they will take a break the week of the first men’s major of the year. The world’s tours played events this week in Texas, Singapore, Arizona, Mexico, and California. Nearly all of these competitions came down to the final stroke, on the final hole. This combination of stout play and building drama is what we weather winter for. With that season in the rearview mirror, let’s embark on another spate of Tour Rundown recollections.
PGA Tour @ Houston Open: Jåger is meister of Houston
Stephan Jåger had performed feats of magic before against the fires of competitive golf. In 2016, on the Web.Com (now Korn Ferry) Tour, he posted a first-round 58 and stayed true to that arrow to win his first tour event. On his Wikipedia page, his surname is spelled both Jåger and Jaeger. To honor his ancestry, we’ll go with the former.
This week, the stakes were higher, as he chased a first victory on the PGA Tour. Marvelous opponents sprinted with him, including former Houston Open winner Tony Finau, and the world’s top-ranked player, Scottie Scheffler. Just as eager as Jåger, were Alejandro Tosti, Thomas Detry, and Taylor Moore. Each figured in the event’s conclusion.
It’s easier to write that each of those six men posted rounds between 66 and 68 on Sunday, and that all finished within one shot of the rest, than it is to recall precisely how they did so. Finau dropped ten shots (62-72) from Friday to Saturday, or he would have added another Houston Open title to the shelf. Scheffler (the 15th), Tosti, (the 18th), and Detry (the 14th) all made a bogey over the concluding holes, or they would have joined Jåger in a playoff. As for Moore, he could have done little more than make one more birdie. His pitch to the last nearly went in, finishing inside two feet from the extension of glory.
Jåger did all his work on Sunday over the front nine. His four birdies and one bogey brought him to 12 under on the week. He proceeded to secure nine pars on the inward half, including a 20-feet save at the 13th. Only at the 17th did he putt for birdie from inside 15 feet, and that effort was too strong. Yet, he did all that he had to do, to conclude an event at the podium’s summit, and hoist a PGA Tour trophy for the first time.
CLUTCH!
Stephan Jaeger saves par to hold on to the solo lead @TCHouOpen. pic.twitter.com/FXKlaQTlXR
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 31, 2024
LPGA @ Ford Championship: Korda wins again, so watch out!
It appears that the mystery condition that derailed Nelly Korda in 2023, has run its course or been eliminated. Korda won for the second consecutive week on the LPGA circuit, and she did so in the manner that we’ve grown to know: efficiency. One week past nearly tossing a victory away, Korda was flawless on Sunday at Seville, in Gilber, Arizona. Her seven birdies and eleven pars led to a Sunday 65, and a two-shot margin of victory over England’s Hira Naveed.
Heretofore unknown at the top tier of women’s golf, Naveed posted 65-66 on the weekend to slide past a quintet of contenders, into second spot. Naveed signed for 16 birdies over the final two days, but a pair of bogeys separated her from a chance at Korda. Behind her, in third position, were Carlota Ciganda, Mi Hyang Lee, Frida Kinhult, Maja Stark, and a resurgent Lexi Thompson.
Nelly Korda began the week with birdies at four of her opening five holes. On days one and three, she posted but a single bogey over the play of the course. Friday was a bit topsy-turvey, with a trio of bogeys offset by a dramatic eagle at the fifth. When it looked as if things were slipping away, Korda closed with birdie on day two, to gain momentum at the halfway point. Her swing is efficient and consistent, and when her mental game and putting join the full move, little can stop her. The Ford Championship was her eleventh on tour, and her third of the young season.
.@NellyKorda is No. 1 for a reason ?
Nelly birdies for the solo lead with just two holes left to go ? pic.twitter.com/WimuZPK0Pf
— LPGA (@LPGA) March 31, 2024
DP World Tour @ Indian Open: Nakajima nearly romps to win
Keita Nakajima set a record of 87 consecutive weeks as the top-ranked amateur in men’s golf. He won four times on the Japan PGA tour and built a five-shot advantage over the first 54 holes of the Indian Open. When he turned in minus-three on Sunday, his advantage swelled to near-double digits. It was a coming-out party for a potential, future champion.
Things turned sour on the inward half. Don’t worry: we did not misleed with our sub-header; Nakajima won. After four solid pars to begin the trek home, the leader made a sloppy, double bogey at the 14th hole. The hole owned Nakajima all week-he played it in a combined plus-five shots to par.
The leader rebounded with birdie at the next but closed with three consecutive bogeys for an inward 40 and 73 on the day. No matter: Nakajima won by four shots over India’s Veer Ahlawat, Sweden’s Sebastian Söderberg, and the USA’s Johannes Veerman. Ahlawat managed 71 on Sunday, to move up four slots. Söderberg and Veerman posted 67 to each ascend 11 spaces.
Keita Nakajima makes yet another long putt for birdie and extends his lead to six ?#HIO24 pic.twitter.com/wG1JmL6Lls
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) March 31, 20 24
PGA Tour Americas @ TotalPlay: JJR wins at home
By all accounts, the merger of the PGA Tour LA and PGA Tour CA was a positive thing. Gone are the qualifying for two tours, and the uncertainty of a season-long circuit for golfers striving to reach the Korn Ferry tier. This week, the PGA Tour Americas moved to the Atlas Country Club in Guadalajara, Mexico. Those in attendance were treated to a wondrous performance by a son of the nation, José de Jesús Rodríguez. A man with a stress mark in each of his three names is specially-written, and specially gifted, after all.
Rodríguez was marvelous over the first three rounds. Scores of 68-65-67 brought him to the pole position, heading into the event’s final lap. Sunday saw an early bogey (3) and a late one (17), and a lot of grit and determination in between. Jesús Montenegro of Argentina closed within one of the leader, but 13-deep was the farthest he could advance. Derek Hitchner and Joey Vzich of the USA matched 71s on Sunday to finish at 12-under par, in a third-place tie. The title, after a 72nd-hole par, belonged to José de Jesús Rodríguez, aka El Camarón Rojo, and all of Mexico celebrated with an olé!
This close to an eagle ?@elcamaronrdgz taps in for birdie on the par 5, 15th to take a one shot lead with 3 holes to play. pic.twitter.com/izO5EyO9sE
— PGA TOUR Americas (@PGATOURAmericas) March 31, 2024
PGA Tour Champions @ Galleri Classic: Goosen gets gift and glory
It’s easy to recall Retief Goosen’s twin U.S. Open titles, in 2001 and 2004. He displayed an icy disposition under pressure as those around him wilted. It’s difficult to forget his collapse at Pinehurst in 2005, as he was on the cusp of a third U.S. Open title, and a place among the game’s greats. Although three more tour titles would come his way, he was never again the same player in major events.
The senior circuit, aka PGA Tour Champions, is a second chance at many things, for many players. For Goosen, it represents an opportunity to rebuild competitive scenarios, and rekindle the fires that burn within the competitive soul. For much of the Galleri Classic this week, Goosen and others watched as Steven Alker and Ricardo González dueled in the desert. In the end, neither player stood ahead of the field.
Both Alker and González posted late bogeys. González made three of them, from holes 14 to 17, while Alker finished bogey-bogey. Each golfer concluded his week at twelve shots under par, one agonizing shot behind Goosen. How did the two-time, U.S. Open champion reach the magic number? He avoided old man bogey. Three birdies and 15 pars on day three were enough to place the South African champion in contention, and he simply held firm, as those around him fell. The win was Goosen’s third on the senior circuit, and his first since 2022.
The Goose is loose.
Retief Goosen trails by one with three to play @GalleriClassic. pic.twitter.com/MlJsFEFNUK
— PGA TOUR Champions (@ChampionsTour) March 31, 2024
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leftright
May 14, 2014 at 8:06 pm
I will say one thing about my observations of the sports world in the last 4 decades…the armchair quarterbacking is getting out of hand. People who can’t bust an egg commenting on Jordon Speith’s golf game. The only choke they know about is what they do on a 2 foot putt on a $5 nassau bet or the snap hook when the going gets tough on the local muni. When I was 20 I was chasing tail and even though I was a scratch golfer…I didn’t care. No one that is a member of WRX has earned the right to even comment on Jordon Speith’s golf game. Admire it and shut up.
Jadon
May 15, 2014 at 10:01 am
haha love this, too bad this is the internet. It would be fun to watch Jordan win a hometown event this week.
Tommy
May 14, 2014 at 2:26 pm
I’m a huge Jordan Spieth fan, but I understand why people think he’s choking. In both the Masters and the Players, his play fell off significantly AFTER he took leads early in the final round. Or rather, his play levels off. And in both cases, he hasn’t bounced back well from perceived bad breaks where he’s hit the shot he wanted to but the result wasn’t good.
I wouldn’t call it choking so much as learning how to handle himself in those situations. His issues have just been magnified by the high profile of the events.
Even in his win at the John Deere, he never had the lead during the final round, I don’t think. And he won in the playoff when others missed very makeable shots.
I’m hoping he figures it out, and he should have plenty of chances to.
Nick
May 15, 2014 at 5:13 pm
I think its just a maturity thing. Dude is 20. It’s a rare breed that doesn’t have to work hard to manage that pressure. No doubt he’ll be in the winner’s circle soon.
Clarence von Aspern
May 14, 2014 at 12:13 pm
Jordan’s problems on Sunday’s round were simply related to his aggressive approach shots taking aim at some difficult pin placements and recovery shot/club selection when he missed the green. He’s only 20 and is absolutely on his way to becoming a dominate player. He’s moving in the right direction … look out Tiger!
leftright
May 14, 2014 at 8:02 pm
Tiger who?
mitch
May 13, 2014 at 6:32 pm
Awesome stats! Although Jordan Spieth is wonderful talent, he doesn’t possess the power nor world class skills to warrant anyone to think that he will be a multiple winner year in and year out on tour. Statistically speaking he doesn’t have an attribute that has the wow factor like a Dustin Johnson or Fred Funk. That said, he is still young and in theory barring any injuries or major hiccups can become a great player. When you watch Rory, you knew there was something special about him, Jordan doesn’t come across as that special someone, at least not yet…
Mike
May 15, 2014 at 9:40 am
Wow factor as in, “Wow, Dustin, I can’t believe you hit an iron OB to lose The Open Championship.” Or, “Wow, Dustin, you didn’t even read the rules sheet to know that was a bunker?”
Maybe you are thinking of Paulina. BTW, I never knew Fred Funk had a “wow” factor. Fill us in, please.
Dave
May 13, 2014 at 10:09 am
Interesting analysis. I also think it’s crazy to label him a choker. Such a talented kid. Regarding scoring stats, your analysis compares his scores relative to himself in other rounds, and it does appear he’s avoiding blow-ups in the final round, but it doesn’t really show if he’s performing in the final round relative to the competition. I’d be interested to see how his final round scores compare to the average (or other metric) score of those who eventually finish in the top 20, top 10, top 5, or even the winners of each event. Might not tell a story at all, but could possibly show if he is being outplayed be the competition instead of “collapsing”…
somesun
May 12, 2014 at 11:04 pm
Just another case of making the numbers tell a fantastic story. Though you make the case for poor driving, and poor putting from 5ft and in, it seems he ranked quite highly in these areas in the players championship.
Norm Platt
May 12, 2014 at 8:59 pm
Good article Rich. There’s a saying in sports that numbers don’t lie. Spieth has done very well for the short time he has been on tour. Because golf is a game of mistakes/misses it appears Spieth is still on a learning curve. I come from a pro hockey background where you are able to see the development of elite young players from about 18 or 19.
I still think that Spieth is probably growing/adjusting to his body and in the next couple of years when his growth stops he will not only get stronger but get more comfortable with his frame.
Players like Michelle Wie and now Lydia Ko are good studies. Ko is clearly an elite athlete who will probably grow a bit more and get much stronger. Michelle Wie was smart to go to school and let her body “rest and recuperate” from being on tour too early. And you can see the changes in Rory McIlroys frame over the last two years.
Tiger Woods is the obvious most “enhanced “frame who went from a ecto/meso frame to almost exclusive mesomorphic frame. Hence the joint stress injuries from being so strong for an ectomorphic frame.
As Spieth matures and becomes more adjusted to the tour there’s a strong possibility he will be rewarded with some wins rather than close top 5 finishes. This is assuming he will improve physically over the next 5 years.
Jadon
May 12, 2014 at 4:44 pm
Wow, very interesting information. It might be time to put a new driver in play, ditch the 910, and get those spin numbers up. I remember hearing on golf channel that he was working with his coach to add some distance with the driver in the off season. It looks like he did pick up some club head speed but any club manufacturer (except for taylormade lol) will tell you that accuracy is much more important than distance.
As for the “choker” label, that’s a joke. This kid is a stud. I can’t wait for him to win a big one and silence that garbage and it won’t be very long if he keeps playing as well as he has been. Insane talent for a 20 year old kid.
4pillars
May 12, 2014 at 3:26 pm
Lets hope he reads this abd takes action, rather than accepting the lable of choker.
Jedidiah
May 12, 2014 at 3:24 pm
Cutie
John Butler
May 14, 2014 at 9:18 am
Statistics or not, we seem to be forgetting that Jordan is 20 years old. Think of our mental state when we were that age. In my case and probably some of yours, it was “Cigarettes, whiskey and wild wild women”.
Jedidiah
May 16, 2014 at 9:56 am
i was talking about rich