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Tiger Woods’ back isn’t the problem

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I started to write: If you think Tiger Woods is through, you’re a doofus. In retrospect, that seemed a bit harsh. What I really meant to say was, if you think Tiger’s bad back spells the end of his career, you’re a doofus.

Tiger’s career may be faltering, but it’s not for all the reasons that have been given over the past couple of weeks:

Back giving out. Leg causing back to give out. Swing stressing leg causing leg to stress back. Mind giving out. Boredom setting in. Family focus. Tolerance for the circus almost depleted. Follow Tiger’s health in social media and you’d think he was in intensive care. This back thing could be the end.

One poster on Geoff Shackelford’s blog said aging happens to all the greats: And all that is left is the memory of their accomplishments.”

Whoa! Could this be a bit premature? About the guy who won how many times last year? That would be five. In 16 starts. He was PGA Player of the Year… for the 11th time!

No. There’s only one reason why Tiger Woods might be done: He’s decided to be done. And we don’t know that yet.

Listen, I’m no big Tiger fan. Maybe because I grew up with heroes like Arnold Palmer, Gordie Howe, Al Kaline, Night Train Lane and Mickey Lolich, most of whom played sports before your Mom met your Dad and did it with a demeanor that said, “Thanks for paying attention; let me sign that for you.”

Tiger’s kind of not like that.

But he is the best golfer ever. And whether he plays the Masters or not, he will be back with a vengeance if he wants to be. If you doubt that you were the guy that bet your house on the Broncos and are still certain McCain took Ohio.

The question is, does he still want to be Tiger Woods?

Here are six reasons not to count him out.

No. 1: The injury is not permanent.

Right now he will get rest, and a lot of it. Here’s what one medical blog says about treating a bulging disk: Place yourself on movement restrictions for at least a few months: no heavy lifting, no jumping, no prolonged sitting, no frequent bending at the waist. And I’ll add, “Absolutely no swinging as hard as you can at a golf ball after you bend at the waist.” Obviously Tiger is not the standard patient, but when it comes to backs, he’s human. He’ll probably miss the Masters. But I’ve got him in my majors pool. So I’m a doofus (See No. 2).

No. 2: You don’t understand him so speculating is feeble.

Don’t feel bad. Nobody does. People say Hogan was an enigma. Hogan was a four-color, 48-point tabloid headline compared to Tiger Woods. Remember those old balata balls we used to slice open to get at that mysterious liquid center that we all feared touching, tasting or lighting on fire? Well, Tiger Woods is the liquid center at the core of our sport. He makes golf fly. Some of us think that core is mostly anger. Others believe it’s just unadulterated competitiveness. Some say he’s missing a childhood and therefore can’t relate so he’s into golf as no one else has ever been. Or he’s really one of those Quiet introverts who are tortured by the media attention he’s subjected to now and so will never tell you what’s really on his mind. Whatever. We’ll never know. So simply treat him like any other great 38-year-old athlete/golfer. We know for certain that of golf’s 423 majors, only 65 have been won by players 38 or over. That indicates that health and altered focus diminish most careers, even for the best. But there are still those 65. Ask Gary Player.

“You can’t compare Tiger Woods to normal people,” Player says. “In his case, it wouldn’t matter if the gap is 10 years. He’s always done what no one else does.”

If he wants to.

No. 3: Look at what he’s accomplished during his “drought.”

During the five years of Tiger’s so-called majors “drought” from 2009 through 2013, he did the following: Won 14 PGA Tour events, which is almost three a year; won three of his 18 WGC championships; finished Top 5 in the Masters three times; finished Top 5 in majors six times; finished Top 10 in the majors nine times.

This record is, for most mortals, a couple of careers. It’s not overstating things to say that were it not for a very unfortunate break on the 15th hole of last year’s Masters, he would have 15 majors today and we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Jack Nicklaus’ drought of five years (’81 to ’85) came later in his career, after his competitive interest waned a bit. But for the record he won four majors after he turned 38 and Tiger can still do that. Nicklaus also had some health issues including stamina (read: weight) and back.

No. 4: Keep talking. You’re only creating refrigerator fodder for him.

Remember Tom McCollister? He’s the columnist for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution who wrote “Nicklaus is gone, done. He just doesn’t have the game anymore. It’s rusted from lack of use. He’s 46 and nobody that old wins the Masters.”

He wrote that in early 1986. Jack reacted the way I think Tiger will to all of this doom and gloom these days about his career. “I read in the Atlanta paper this week that 46-year-olds don’t win Masters,” Jack said. “I kind of agreed. I got to thinking. Hmmm. Done, through, washed up. And I sizzled for a while. But I said to myself, I’m not going to quit now, playing the way I’m playing. I’ve played too well, too long to let a shorter period of bad golf be my last.”

Maybe Tiger doesn’t read his coverage. I doubt it. My guess is he reacts just like Jack did. He’d like to prove you wrong, unless he thinks he’s already done that enough times and doesn’t want to bother.

No. 5: What does Jack think?

Tiger-Woods+Jack-Nicklaus

“My guess is that his priority over the next couple three years will be to break my record,” Nicklaus told Jaime Diaz of Golf World over the winter. “Frankly, I still think he’s going to break it.”

No. 6: What’s Haney saying?

Tiger may see The Big Miss as a big diss, but read the whole thing and listen to Haney on Golf Channel or Twitter and you hear tons of respect for Woods. Yes, he thinks some of Tiger’s “intimidation” power is overstated, but that doesn’t mean he doubts his overwhelming talent. Listen to him on Twitter:

@Rob_Whatham: Do you think that the way Tiger is swinging is putting undue stress on his lower back, hence causing injury?

@HankDHaney: I don’t buy that

@chrisatgolf: when u play someone better (perceived) than you, it can influence ur play

@HankDHaney: There is nothing perceived about Tiger’s greatness

@MrElculver2424:If Tiger has 54-hole lead at Masters, u think he’ll close it or will he mentally collapse on Sun?

@HankDHaney: He is the best closer ever

I called Hank this week and got a very interesting take on Tiger’s latest drama. What worries Hank right now is not Tiger’s back, the bulging disk, or the Foley swing that some say is stressing a 38-year-old body in ways it shouldn’t. It’s not new aging talent or, as GMac put it the other day, Tiger’s loss of “that force field of invincibility.”

What worries Hank Haney is Tiger’s practice. Or the lack of it. “He’s the best player, period,” said Hank. “So he’s a threat no matter what. But he hasn’t practiced all year! Everyday you don’t practice is a day you’re falling behind and losing ground. He’s not just not putting in a full day, he’s putting in no day.” Haney points to Tiger’s relaxed schedule in December and January “to get healthy.”

“That doesn’t have anything to do with short game,” Haney said. “He’s third to last in three-putt avoidance! That’s feel. That’s practice.”

Backs can be fixed; motivation is tougher. “I don’t think the long term problem is the back. Or the swing. The biggest question going forward is, Is he motivated enough? Does he still want to be Tiger Woods? I’m not sure.”

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Bob Carney is a Contributing Editor at Golf Digest, writing for the magazine, its web site and sister publication Golf World. He’s an avid golfer and a single-digit handicap who has earned awards for his coverage of the industry and recreational golf. He is co-author, with Davis Love Jr. and Bob Toski, of How to Feel a Real Golf Swing. Prior to joining Golf Digest, Carney wrote for the Bergen (NJ) Record and contributed stories to People Magazine and Time, among others. He earned a B.A. From University of Michigan, attended Columbia University Journalism School, and served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Thailand, where he managed to get in one or two rounds of golf.

93 Comments

93 Comments

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  2. clay

    Aug 7, 2014 at 8:21 pm

    Im a avid golfer i work on a golf course and probably golf 3-6 days a week (as i can play my course for free) i have a recorded swing speed of 119 MPH and can tell you it is MURDER on the lower back and i have left the course mid round to go to the hospital due to painful spasms that being said since that day three years ago i have learned there is very few instances in golf where you need your clubhead going 120 MPH yea its fun to hit an 8 iron 195 yards and have it check back 2-3yds but i can just bring my swing speed down out of the stratosphere and use a 7 or 6 and save my back and so can tiger if Rory isn’t careful he’s gonna have the same issue they both have to learn when they can/cant and when they should/shouldn’t swing 120 if they dont he will drop out of every important tournament from now till forever and Rory may be on his way to the same problem

  3. Pingback: The Current State of Tiger Woods | Eye on the Tour

  4. 8thehardway

    Apr 21, 2014 at 10:24 am

    First his “front” got him in trouble, now it’s his back… once his sides go, he’s had it.

    • Dominic Johnson

      Jul 13, 2014 at 1:14 pm

      Ive personally experienced both HGH and AAS and there has never been a question in my mind that Tiger has used PED’s for quite some time. Unfortunately for him as well as Alex Rodriguez they both seem to have had more impressive careers either early on or before they started their “use”.

      For all the Tiger supporters out there, simply post this article on any Bodybuilding website and you’ll find out pretty quick there’s no doubt of Tiger’s PED use. Like a commenter said ” takes one to know one “, well I am one, and I know one…..Not to mention Serena, Lebron, DWade, Dwight Howard, Ray Rice, Lee Westwood, Trout, Ray Lewis, Nadal, Clay Mathews Jr, Harper, and any other freakish type athlete out there.

      Think of it this way….Bonds and Rodriquez were known for their great hitting, good power and incredible fielding….once the PED use began all that was left was the power. Rodriguez and Bonds would have been comparable to Ken Griffey Jr had they not used.

      Another prime example is McIlroy’s “change”. Im not speaking of just his physical changes, but look at how erratic his behavior has been as well.

      Myself, I believe PED’s only hurt Tiger’s game, not to mention the mental aspect of PED use. When you’re on you feel like an 18 year old superman, when you’re off you feel like a sixth grade little girl, and you’re never the same.

      PED’s for some athletes are beneficial, NFL Linebackers, lineman, basketball forwards, baseball first baseman / home run hitters, however I can’t see where it is benefit to an athlete that requires quickness AND finesse….like a shortstop turned third baseman.

      If it wasn’t for the example to young athletes ( college / high school ), who don’t need them due to the overwhelming amount of Test and growth hormone naturally occurring in them, it wouldn’t trouble me in the least if all major sports allowed their use. Look at the modern power age of baseball that saved the game after the strike / lockout of the mid 90’s. Baseball is historical proof that the increase in scoring due to PED use made for a much more popular game. Please all of you over 60 who are still in love with America’s slow, boring pastime can keep your comments to yourself. Baseball is once again declining in popularity due to the lack of offense.

      One last thing about taking one to know one….everyone I know that has used PED’s is never the same ( Mickey Rourke, Carrot Top ). Their personalities change forever, their bodies change forever, injuries rates are never the same, their mental health is never the same. With PED’s there are two periods in your life: on cycle, off cycle.

      Look at these examples with regard to physical breakdowns in the second half of their careers :

      Serena ( are you serious )
      Tiger
      Wade ( Drop foot )
      Lee Westwood ( Off now )
      A Rodriguez
      Josh Hamilton
      Mathews Jr.
      Brian Cushing ( positive tests, and admitted using with CM Jr. )
      Bonds
      McGwire
      Sosa ( Turned white, or sort of green )

      Trust me, if you’ve never experienced PED’s yourself, you should really keep your comments to yourself. You have no idea what you are talking about, and that is not meant as an “I told you so”.

      Again, want proof ? Post a thread on a bodybuilding forum about Tiger and these other athletes and the comments will most likely be short and in an almost comical tone about how obvious it is.

      Don’t believe me, just ask Arnold ( Schwarzenegger that is ) !

  5. Pat M

    Apr 19, 2014 at 11:02 pm

    His back is bad but I also think he has mental problems. He needs to go back to Stevie Williams to get back on track.

  6. Mike

    Apr 19, 2014 at 7:47 pm

    Tiger Woods is one of the best professional golfers of all time. That being said he is also a miserable human being. Treats his fans, his fellow professionals, people who work the event, volunteers, virtually everyone he comes in contact with like crap.

    He is self indulgent with a huge sense of entitlement. He has been great for professional golf, i. e. huge purses but that has translated into guys like you and me footing the bill in the form of $500 drivers, 100,000 autos etc. Those advertisers and equipment companies aren’t forking out those huge dollars out of the goodness of their hearts. We are paying for it folks. Yep he is super scrutinized just like every other superstar. I got a solution for that. If you don’t want the scrutiny that comes along with $100 million endorsement contracts etc? It’s easy go do something else. Oh yea, being a SEAL or selling cars or working at Burger King (whatever you’re qualified for) doesn’t pay nearly as much. So suck it up ,stop whining and start treating the folks who pay you the huge dollars with some respect. Did i mention in addition to being self-entitled he’s a cheater, flat out. Brandle Chamblee is the only guy to have the heuveos to actually express say it and before you start with the lible talk it’s an opinion and even if it wasn’t the absolute defense is the truth. And it’s the truth. I just love guys like you who say “I’m not a Tiger lover” and then proceed to “sing his praises.”

    Personally I couldn’t care less if he plays another hole of golf or not. I’m just tired of listening to “everything Tiger.” He isn’t the reason I tune in to watch the show. I will never use anything Nike. Lots of other exciting golfers out there to watch that at least present the image of a decent human being.

    Oh and by the way a 48 point headline is 2/3″ kinda tiny compared to the 120 or 150 point headlines the tabloids use. You would think a guy in the newspaper/magazine industry would know that.

    • PGAJim

      Jun 15, 2014 at 7:36 pm

      LMAO,
      Thanks for the laugh. Granted, he is moody on the course, but that’s because he wants to win !
      I’m no Bill Belichick fan, but what has all that moodiness got him…
      3 super bowls and 3 more trips there in 15 years.
      Just FYI, Tiger makes a practice of being super nice to the little people. I have volunteered at several tourneys where was palying and have seen him show up early, days early and spend time with the “little people”.
      This is not endorsement related. Its true charity.
      Oh Yeah, his foundation has raised more than the top 15 golfers beneath him combined the past 10 years.
      Be a hater, thats fine, but don’t spread BS like u know it as law, because you are WAY OFF.

      • dksherlock

        Jun 19, 2014 at 5:48 pm

        What makes Mike a “hater” (such a third-grade term!)? Because he criticizes Tiger Woods, a near billionaire, on a sports comment page? Many golf fans are like Mike: they enjoy supporting athletes who they perceive to be decent men, who treat their fans and family well. Good for you that Tiger was “super nice” when you saw him; there are many stories of opposite behavior, it’s pretty well documented.

    • Brooke

      Jun 25, 2014 at 1:14 pm

      I think some of your statements or too general. For example one of his playing partners at his home course is a 13 year old kid. Most jerks dont have 13 year old friends. Maybe he is tired of everyone judging him.

      How do you know he treats people who work the events like “crap”?

      And of course he is going to have an ego. I would like to see how you would act if you had 500 million and accomplished all Tiger has and still be somewhat down to earth.

  7. Kevin E. Smith

    Apr 16, 2014 at 12:03 pm

    “Tiger’s career may be faltering,” Didn’t Tiger Woods win five times in 2013?

  8. Rixirox

    Apr 15, 2014 at 12:49 am

    BS! Tigers hurt. He can’t practice. it hurts. Tiger will always be Tiger. When he is well and can practice. He rips you when he’s well. He’ll be back.

  9. Bob Shackleford

    Apr 9, 2014 at 6:10 pm

    Uh, a disc injury is kinda one of the worst physical injuries you can get. Most of them are very permanent. Now sure, Tiger has literally some of the best medical care in the world, but I wouldnt play it off like its no big deal.

  10. west

    Apr 3, 2014 at 1:51 pm

    Is Tiger getting: “up there,” yes. But this is golf. I don’t think this back thing will be the end or demise of Tiger. He’ll rest for a few months, get some rehab and maybe incorporate some minor swing changes and be back in the game. I think the only big change we might see is if Tiger decides to change his intense “all throttles go” “full steam ahead” approach to the game. You don’t have to practice 12hrs/day, hit 10k balls, or swing +125mph on every drive to win majors…

  11. Jafstar

    Apr 3, 2014 at 11:13 am

    He’s sad his life fell apart after his divorce and that is probably more unsettling than most people have given credence to.

    Now most people are watching him just to f*** up like he’s a NASCAR driver going around the track.

    He’s not having fun, that is his real problem, and not having a family backing him 100% is probably the difference in his attitude.

    How would you like it knowing your ex-wife is probably talking crap about you to your children while you’re trying to make a putt.

    It sucks, but he has to accept the humility of not being the Golden Child anymore. He himself has to find joy in the game or ask his family why they think he should play golf. Maybe it will remind him of who he was and what he was trying to accomplish when he first started down this road.

    • keepitreal

      Apr 5, 2014 at 8:21 pm

      i agree. being exposed would be crazy-hard for an egomaniac to handle. just goes to show how fragile it all is. that said, golf sucks without tiger and/or phil in contention each week.

      • nb1062

        Apr 30, 2014 at 12:41 pm

        Not a Tiger fan, big Phil fan – That having been said golf doesn’t suck if either of them isn’t in contention. I love to see Phil win but golf has a lot of great players to provide some excitement.

    • Old putt

      Apr 17, 2014 at 6:10 am

      Great analysis. You hit all the points.

    • Old putt

      Apr 17, 2014 at 6:12 am

      Great analysis. From the fight and scandal throughout the last few years Tiger has become even more complex. Good job Jafstar

    • dksherlock

      Jun 19, 2014 at 5:54 pm

      Oh yes, poor sad Tiger! Come on. His wife doesn’t have to be “talking crap” about him, what a silly thing to say. Tiger’s children will be able to Google all his escapades. And if you’re intent on garnering sympathy for this guy, good luck.

  12. JP

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:48 am

    “But he is the best golfer ever.” — ummm, really? Isn’t that a bit premature as well? And do we only judge the “best” by number of Major’s won? Sorry, but where I come from, “best” is a term used to define the entire package of grace, skill, talent, humility, respect for fans, etc. Tiger falls short in at least four of the above. Ben Hogan is still the BEST imho.

    • Max

      Apr 4, 2014 at 12:03 pm

      Skill, Talent, scoring avarage, number of wins, best statistic… thats how you measure best golf player. Its not however how you measure kindest human being.

      I think people forget what he has done for the sport. And what he’s still accomplishing.

      Give him a break it not about being nice, or having humility. Its about being the best at what you do. He does not have a job that demands humility or grace, so what? Have you met him?

      Personally a lot of athletes act all high and mighty and well untill the day I meet him, Im not going to put him down for his lack of grace… what are you a christian… come on!

      • Rancho Bob

        Apr 18, 2014 at 10:51 am

        Skill, talent, scoring average, etc. Yep. Amazing. Most majors? Welllllll..

        But exactly what has he done for golf? As near as I can tell all he’s done for golf is make it somewhat more popular, which brought about the NASCARization of golf. That’s hardly better, unless you own a course or an equipment manufacturer.

        Now we have twits shouting out “get in the hole!” on par five tee shots and, even stupider, “mashed potatoes!” People who think five or more hours for a round of golf is reasonable. People who have to mark every putt and align the 18 inch come back. People who have no love nor respect for the intricacies of the game, but want to pound the ball a mile–but usually it’s 215 yards into an adjacent fairway.

        He’s shown himself to believe that he is far, far more important than the game. Interact with fans, sign autographs, etc.? Ahhhh…no, not really. Never mind that the fans made him what he is. Without them, he’s just another guy on Tour.

        Money? Yep, he’s brought that into the game. So the pros all make a lot more and I’m sure they’re happy about that. As are the manufacturers. But the price of golf has gone up quite a bit as well to pay all those sponsorships and the cost of equipment is through the roof. Is that a benefit?

        Tiger has done a lot for himself and for the PGA and for the manufacturers. For the true game of golf?

        Nothing at all.

        • Max

          Apr 20, 2014 at 4:52 am

          I agree I think you should give time for your fans. No doubt, but just like Michael Jackson, one should focus on the music, and not his very special personality or the all of the other weirdness. I think its the same for tiger. Focus on his golf! I am personally tired of people judging a player from other things than ability to play. I play golf myself, so I know the rules and the gentleman-ness of golf. But Tiger is only human. To me Tiger is the best golfer to play the game. He’s not however the most winning or the most polite. THat does not mean however that I dont still feel that he’s the best. Just like the best president of the US is not the nicest or the one who has the least amount of sex scandals. Tiger is amasing at his ob, period.

    • Ron

      Apr 26, 2014 at 7:36 am

      I’m curious. Have you actually had the opportunity to meet Tiger? He has given to several foundations and has a technology school of his own. He praises the hard working military men and women of this country, so when and where did Tiger snub you. I’ve been to several tournaments and golfers fail to acknowledge me. They’re on their jobs, trying to stay focused. How would you feel if while working I called you with a comment every 5 min. A bit distracted, I imagine.

  13. billy

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:36 am

    Oh and if you want to know who stole Tigers Motivation MoJo look no further than “Nike”.

    It was purchased and sent packing the minute he got that huge contract.

  14. billy

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:34 am

    “That doesn’t have anything to do with short game,” Haney said. “He’s third to last in three-putt avoidance! That’s feel. That’s practice.”

    This is what I have been saying all year…Tiger has lost something more damaging to his career than his back…His short game has left the building.
    Other Pro’s love competition with weak short games.

    • Max

      Apr 20, 2014 at 4:55 am

      Isnt he saying that its good. THere are only two people last year who were better at avoiding three puts? I sounds like you read it the other way.

  15. joro

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:30 am

    It is not about what is wrong but how it got that way. That is easy, swinging too hard as required today is hard on the back

  16. matt

    Apr 2, 2014 at 9:35 am

    WOW… Subject-Tiger certainly sparks some debate, not sure he is going in the right direction with the Foley swing, too much focus on trackman numbers and not enough practice/competition. The ‘never give in’ mentality that Tiger gained respect for over the years has diminished somewhat over the last few years, obviously other outside factors influencing this, but he’ll be back, whether its too little too late will be the question

  17. Jamie

    Apr 2, 2014 at 3:58 am

    Year 6 since Eldricks last major, so just how is he gonna pass the great Jack Nicklaus,
    too many good players now, fear factor has gone, I doubt jack looses too much sleep, no majors since 08, where are 4 more coming from ?
    not next week that’s for sure!!!

    • Max

      Apr 20, 2014 at 4:56 am

      How many Majors did Jck have at age 38?… 14 the same as tiger. So judging bay age alone,,, no problem.

  18. JoePro

    Apr 1, 2014 at 11:50 am

    If Tiger can put together 2-3 great years, they’ll probably be 2of3 or 3of4, he’ll best jack by about 3. If he can put together 2-3 good years he’ll get jack by 1-2, but I have no doubt if he stays in the game and plays mediocre golf he will, at the least, tie Jack. It’s just simple Tiger math, whether you love him or hate him, it imperical. If Watson can lose the Open Championship, by not getting up and down from 65′, at 60ish, I’ll take Tigers chances till he’s 60. I’m sure he’ll lose interest by 55 though. Because he’ll have the record and nothing left to “push” him.

  19. Dennis Clark

    Mar 31, 2014 at 10:13 pm

    When Jack Nicklaus turned 38 he had 14 majors. Between the ages of 35 and 39, he won one.

    • Forsbrand

      Apr 19, 2014 at 3:44 am

      He didn’t change his swing with four different instructors though. Jack pure class!

  20. Tony

    Mar 31, 2014 at 8:03 pm

    I find it funny that his back only hurts after a bad shot, 5mins later he can flush a shot and theres no back pain. Weird hey?

    • Barry

      Mar 31, 2014 at 9:49 pm

      Totally agree.
      Such a drama Queen!
      In the US Open, he hits a bad shot he is on his knee.
      Look him when he drops the last putt, he is bent over backwards, screaming like a banchee….surprise, surprise, no pain.
      PS Mark Calcavecchia has had 8 knee operations, 4 on each leg, and he has got to be at least 40 lbs over weight.
      Doe writhing in pain like Eldrick, NO. Mark came recovered in half the time.
      TMTC

      • Forsbrand

        Apr 19, 2014 at 3:45 am

        Absolutely spot on. Whinces when there’s a bad shot then he’s flipping about all over the place like a floor gymnast when he holes a putt……..

    • Jafstar

      Apr 3, 2014 at 11:17 am

      Yah…gotta keep that Nike contract…. a few young guns could snatch that thunder away from him if they start winning majors here and there.

  21. curtiss mull MD

    Mar 31, 2014 at 5:26 pm

    What the heck does Hank Haney know about backs and the cause and effect of a golf swing! Any orthopedic surgeon will tell you the worse thing for the back is rotation of the low back under load. Most of us will experience back issues during our lives and most of us will show degenerative disk changes on xray by the age of 60. The causes are manifold. Heredity. physical conditioning (or lack of), repeated loads on the spine thru lifting or twisting. I suspect even Big Easy Ernie with his smooth non violent swing will probably show changes by xray at some time, maybe now. That in itself doesn’t mean he has a back issue necessarily. I have always believed Tigers swing would lead to problems later in life. Rest and rehab is the treatment as long as he shows no progressive neurological loss. He will get better but if he doesn’t change his back problem will return.

    • Jamie

      Apr 1, 2014 at 3:04 am

      I have extensive knowledge on this subject, this being I suffered a massive disc prolapse some years back, make a bulging disc feel like a mild headache!!
      The disc herniation caused huge damage to the nerve rootS at the base of my spine causing permanent damage, the condition is called CAUDA EQUINA SYNDROME, permanent pain, leg weakness, back pain,ect,ect,
      now I went to my orthopaedic surgeon to ask him about the possibility of playing golf again, his answer was yes, the golf swing does not massively load the disc, you turn the spine, you do not load it,
      I play weekly, with drugs and heat pads, and guess what, I do not drop to the floor in pain, I can play with it, but hey im not Tiger!!!!
      Agreed he is a sportsman at the top of his game, not out for 18 with his pals, but the issue is the falling to the ground in agony, not buying it !!!
      I still flush a seven iron, I still hit my driver 240 on a good day,
      his problem is a lot less than C.E.S Syndrome,if he drops to floor in real pain, the guy should be in the emergency room, not the golf course, Eldricks problem is between his ears!!!

      • JoePro

        Apr 1, 2014 at 12:45 pm

        Your swing speed is probably 82 max on a really nice hot day with a alcohol, pain killer, ibuprofen cocktail. Try adding roughly 40 to it and you’ll be in their neighborhood, which is on another planet. Your riding a bike, they’re driving Ferrari’s, there is absolutely no comparison. On the best day of your life, in your “prime”, you couldn’t sniff that for one swing. Hell, 99.5% of us couldn’t. They do that day in day out for decades. 240 on a good day?! I think you need to get some unbiased perspective my friend.

        • Jamie

          Apr 2, 2014 at 2:31 am

          Ill give you some unbiased perspective my friend, how many times did Jack Nicklaus walk off injured when the round was getting away from him, answer never!!
          Ben Hogan never kept hobbling off, sinking to the floor, did Arnold ever have a lot of injury problems, Gary Player come to think of it, did he walk off,some people have real physical problems, they get on with it, I couldn’t give a monkeys how fast he swings, the great JACK NICKLAUS seemed to manage ok, for 18 majors!!!!

          • JP

            Apr 2, 2014 at 11:52 am

            Spot—on!

          • JoePro

            Apr 3, 2014 at 8:41 pm

            I was merely using swing speed to point out that your “condition” has no significance in comparison to to Tigers. Nor wood my swing speed. Every era has their favorites, as it should be, but age seems to polish the turd. Every golfer you mentioned had multiple WD’s, medical and otherwise, except maybe Player. Jack alone had 6 or 7, so……..there’s that. Hogan “hobbled” off multiple times, for good reason, but it happened none the less. A lot of that era and before had WD’s because they were too drunk to finish. Doesn’t change the fact that they were great golfers, just a fact. At this point in time time Tiger is tied with Jack, which makes him at the least tied s the greatest golfer ever, a fact. If he gets to 46 and doesn’t have 18 majors he won’t be. If he gets to 47 and has 19, he is the GOAT, a fact. Golf is simple, it boils down to numbers period. People who don’t understand that don’t understand golf, which is their right. But they’re just polishing the turd, which is also their right.

          • Forsbrand

            Apr 19, 2014 at 3:46 am

            Spot on! Couldn’t have said it better!

  22. Puddin

    Mar 31, 2014 at 4:33 pm

    Great article. Tiger will be in full bloom before we know it. Maybe not next week. But, he will win multiple times again this year. Modern medicine at the professional level is far more advanced that what the normal Joe gets.

  23. Brad

    Mar 31, 2014 at 4:30 pm

    Good article that puts things in perspective. Bottomline. Only Tiger can beat Tiger. I recall all the naysayers when Montana when down with a back injury and surgery. Afterwards, he won two Super Bowls and three division championships.

  24. BOBBY D

    Mar 31, 2014 at 3:18 pm

    we spend more time questioning if and when ELDRICK will play, who cares…when he is ready then he will play,hope it’s never !
    WHO CARES…

  25. jbcueman

    Mar 31, 2014 at 1:56 pm

    Has Tiger checked with the Laser Spine Institute? Have him talk to Natalie Gulbis.I just had a lumbar discectomy for bulging disk and pinched nerve.Had a 6″ incision,10 staples but I was up & walking within 7 hours.Went home next morning.I am a 62 year old male.

  26. johnnyray

    Mar 31, 2014 at 12:19 pm

    Great article. It is about desire at the end of the day. All great athletes play with pain and injuries. In golf, Ben Hogan was the supreme example of this after he miraculously recovered from the car crash. His doctors said he would never walk unaided again, much less play golf, much less win major championships. Hogan wrapped both of his legs, essentially unnoticeable under his long trousers, for every round he played. He endured unimaginable pain and discomfort every day of his post-accident life. Plus he chain smoked Camels! I hope Tiger finds his desire again. It would be an indication, after all he’s been through, that he’s regained something beyond physical health.

  27. JohnC

    Mar 31, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    Speculators are of the same ilk who predict doomsday prophecies. They are individuals who are chock-full of drama and opine by rationalizing information in such a manner that they believe it to be accurate.

    The general circumstances surrounding the performance of Tiger Woods has been no different than any other high-ranking golfer. Every professional faces demons of one type or another during their career. Only Tiger Woods will know the future in this regard.

    If ultimate success of the greatest among us could truly be predicted by soothsayers then being at the top would indeed be a lonely place, for it would be occupied by no one.

  28. Craig T

    Mar 31, 2014 at 11:54 am

    Tiger has not been “Tiger” since Y.E. Yang took him down. The rest of this stuff is on the periphery. He was the best closer in majors. He is no longer. He used to say it was all about the majors. That has changed too.

  29. joro

    Mar 31, 2014 at 11:41 am

    Doofus is right Carney, and you are one big one. Sure, Tiger has pains, Steve said in 2000 that he was wearing his body out with all the exercise and other physical things he was doing. Well, it is coming to a head now. That, along with swinging as hard as he can is causing more and more back problems.

    Any GOOD teacher will tell you that swinging too hard is the worst thing you can do for the back, and he, along with others swing way too hard. Look at Phil with hin oblique pain, caused by his long hard swing, and in time it will catch Rory. It is no secret, the back cannot take all the hard torque. Swinging smooth and moving the body with the arms is the way, not doing the twist. Look at guys who have been out there for years with no problems, all smooth swingers with short backswings. It is no secret;, just common sense.

  30. RG

    Mar 31, 2014 at 12:17 am

    Tiger has had a hall of fane career in just the last 5 years. In 2013 he had more wins than anyone else. Whenever you engage in speculation on Tiger you expose yourself as an idiot. What I mean is you are not qualified, none of us are qualified, to speak on what he is or is not doing. Your like a flea talking about what the dog your riding on should or should not do. Maybe Jack Nicklaus is qualified to speak about Tiger and he thinks Tiger will break his records, which really is all that’s left for Tiger. He’s won more, owns all the stroke records in Majors and just about every other tournament. Stop speculating flea and just sit back and enjoy whatever he shows us, and be grateful you were able to see such spectacular performances in your lifetime.

  31. Brian

    Mar 30, 2014 at 10:07 pm

    I think that tiger will get back on track if his new caddie starts to find him a new woman at each event like his old caddie did when tiger was winning all the time.

  32. steve

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:49 pm

    I remember hearing Tiger say the reason he went to Foley was to get better and the swing was easier on his body. I quess not. The Foley move has set his career into stand still. He still doesnt trust that swing. Tiger used to when majors with his B game. Check your ego go back to Butch.

  33. Jim

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:41 pm

    If the Tour isn’t going to penalize slow play with stroke penalties, they should perhaps give Loupe, Na, Bradley, and their other slow play ilk a just below terminal dose of Ritalin along with an exemption for that drug if tested.

    Agonizing enough having to watch them, think about the poor pros that have endure their fatal slowness and the effect on their game. ENOUGH ALREADY, Finchem !!!!

    • JohSte

      Apr 1, 2014 at 5:53 am

      I timed Loupe on one putt it took him 38 seconds from the time he took away his marker to actually putting the ball.
      Jim maybe those 3 you mentioned do need to a meth dealer who is a reliable source!!!
      Big pharma not good with that stuff.

  34. MHendon

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:13 pm

    I don’t know if it was Johnny Miller or which ever commentator, but I remember one of them saying the only golfer who practiced more than Vijay Singh was Tiger Woods. Practice makes perfect but as we get older that wear and tear from our youth begins to catch up with us. His single minded focus to be the best ever has worn out the rest of him. More than likely the next ten years will have moments of brilliance while he is briefly feeling good followed by extended periods of mediocrity while he nurses another injury.

  35. Jason Sobal

    Mar 30, 2014 at 8:55 pm

    Cant help but wonder if he regrets lifting so much and playing that U.S. Open at Torrey Pines on the broken leg? It seems like his body made major compensations that are now causing him to have a chain reaction of other problems.

  36. Jon

    Mar 30, 2014 at 8:48 pm

    Why has nobody looked at LaCava? The man is a walking golf cart with sky caddie. At least Williams had some emotion.

  37. letsbehonest

    Mar 30, 2014 at 6:23 pm

    He needs some “blood spinning.” If you believe Tiger wasn’t juicing your nuts.

  38. Snowman

    Mar 30, 2014 at 11:56 am

    Nothing will stop Tiger EXCEPT Health Issues and he definitely has some. How bad are they? We don’t really know and he ain’t talking. Barring a true career ending injury, he could be competitive into his mid 50’s (as was Hogan) so he may have ~60 more chances to win 5 majors… but if he gets to 17, the pressure will be massive. I’m hoping we get to see it.

    • letsbehonest

      Mar 30, 2014 at 3:31 pm

      Tiger’s pursuit of Jack ended when the PGA Tour started drug testing. It’s not a coincidence that Tiger’s body has broken down without steroids. Majors are more physically demanding and without steroids, Tiger’s body can’t handle the rigor of competing at these venues for 4 days/4 times a year. If Tiger wins another major (doubtful) it’s because he and his doctors have figured out a way to circumvent the current drug testing.

      • Justin

        Mar 30, 2014 at 10:02 pm

        I wouldn’t go so far as to say that he used steroids. However, his body is definitely feeling the wear and tear of the intense weight training, and the marine training he went through. Don’t get me wrong, he pretty much invented the modern power game, but all the time lifting definitely is giving him problems now.

        • RG

          Mar 31, 2014 at 12:07 am

          Ask Gary Player what he thinks about lifting heavy weights.

          • keepitreal

            Apr 5, 2014 at 8:18 pm

            he kissed nelson mandela’s feet…his opinions are worthless

  39. Pugster22

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:28 am

    Tiger has more “wear and tear” on his body than any other professional golfer on the planet…and it is catching up to him.
    He was on TV at a very young age and has been hitting balls and playing competitive golf since three. (?)
    The amount of tournaments that Tiger played since his early youth were not available to Arnold, Jack, Player, Trevino, Floyd.
    His body is about 8 to 10 years older than his age.

    Any thoughts????

    • mark b

      Apr 1, 2014 at 12:21 am

      I’d have to check the stats, but I’m pretty sure that Jack, Arnie, Lee and Ray did not play a lowly 16 to 18 tournaments per year. Tiger has played the absolute minimum for most of his career — with a few paid foreign appearances thrown in for giggles. If there is wear on him, it’s not coming from a rigorous golf schedule.

    • bestman

      Apr 22, 2014 at 1:22 am

      once you are in pain,you are always.it installs itself in your mind & stays there forever even when you play a painless round.your mind is always alert & affraid it will come back,diminish your capabilities & worse make you unfit for the game to continue as it has been & brought yuo so much fame.being second is difficult.still he’s number one in the world.
      i don’t think even a psy can get it out.and as tiger has played since so many years tear & wear are part of his condition.so lets focuss on the new guys with hughe capabilites and not let tiger’s pain ruin our pleasure.i went recently from right hand play to left hand due to pain on the right side & it works( i am left hander in fact but did not realise) my focus goes to bubba now more than mickelson who is a “fake lefthander”(sorry )its like being left handed in tennis,there is always something special for us in comparison with others & last friday i beat a guy who thought it would be impossible playing left hand.with this change my game is back.my fun in the game is back.tiger should think about changing the way he trains & be more relaxed & refocus towards his capabilities he had in the beginning .how is his life with vonn?we don’t hear anything??

  40. mark b

    Mar 30, 2014 at 2:14 am

    Please come back Tiger. We need you. I can imagine no worse afternoon of Golf on TV than having to watch Kevin Na and Andrew Loupe fidget their way to the top of a leaderboard. Check that — add in the old spitting Keegan Bradley and you have the death of the PGA.

  41. JonathanBilbo

    Mar 29, 2014 at 10:47 pm

    I’m pretty sure he is just wore down from having to carry the TOUR for all these years. He is human and maybe he just wants to be ordinary like the other golfers and not have to deal with circus that surrounds him all the time. He should retire for a year or two and see if he still wants to play, you can see it in his face every round now that he is just drained. Jordan retired and came back so ….

  42. thefullsp

    Mar 29, 2014 at 10:20 pm

    It was regularly written that he used to do 2 hours of yoga every day. Wonder if he still does…?

  43. Sean

    Mar 29, 2014 at 9:39 pm

    Time will tell. Thanks Bob.

  44. DJ

    Mar 29, 2014 at 9:15 pm

    Tiger needs to go back to the Scotty

    • Jerret

      Mar 30, 2014 at 11:28 am

      Best WRX comment I’ve seen! Couldn’t have said it better, when it was in his hands….Game, Set, Match!

    • CJ haws

      Mar 30, 2014 at 2:56 pm

      Amen! Been saying it for years. He has the “Scotty” curse during the majors…

  45. John

    Mar 29, 2014 at 6:37 pm

    Good article Bob. I hope Tiger gets back to contention on Sundays ‘cos it is boring to watch all these slow players like Loupe and Na and probably others to ruin the game to watch! I quit watching basketball after Jordan retired, football after Elway retired and i sure will quit watching golf after Tiger quits!! It ain’t worth it for me to watch mediocre !!!

  46. Roger

    Mar 29, 2014 at 5:52 pm

    Bob, thanks for an article with real depth and insight and no bashing!

  47. froneputt

    Mar 29, 2014 at 5:39 pm

    Agree with the author, and for once, with Haney.

  48. getitclose

    Mar 29, 2014 at 5:21 pm

    Best article I’ve read on here. I’m a little biased because Tiger is my idol and always will be. But this article is an unbiased, honest, well written example of what is going on. It’s not throwing absurd comments around like “Tigers done” and “What’s wrong with Tiger? Is he quitting”. Lord knows there isn’t a whole lot of us Tiger enthusiast around anymore, but to say he wasn’t that great or to say he isn’t that great is indeed, absurd!

    Great read! Keep it up…

  49. Large chris

    Mar 29, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    Totally agree with this article. Tigers desire has lessened a little the last few months, and when he wasn’t contending in some tourneys last year he looked worn out. If he gets the desire back then he will win more majors.

  50. GolferX

    Mar 29, 2014 at 2:32 pm

    Actually, that pulled hamstring was 25 years ago. And the throbbing from the change in barometric pressure woke me up this morning. Don’t get old, boys– Ben Hogan.

  51. GolferX

    Mar 29, 2014 at 2:29 pm

    Only Tiger can answer the questions posed by your article, Bob. The problem is that we don’t really know the extent of the damage caused by his leg injury. As someone, who suffered a serious pulled hamstring in my mid-thirties, I can tell you that 20 years later, the damage continues to confound me to this day. The body is meant to break down and for an athlete, the slightest diminution of ability is devastating.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

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The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old. 

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades. 

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event. 

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions. 

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

  • 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
  • 2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
  • 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
  • 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
  • 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
  • 2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Shane Lowry (+1.25)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
  3. Jordan Smith (+1.05)
  4. Tom Hoge (+.96)
  5. Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship. 

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+.90)
  4. Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
  5. Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

  1. Jon Rahm (+2.56)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
  3. Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
  4. Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
  5. Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds: 

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
  5. Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event. 

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
  2. Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens. 

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
  2. Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
  3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
  4. Justin Rose (+0.93)
  5. J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds: 

  1. Justin Thomas (+1.53)
  2. Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
  4. Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
  5. Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%). 

  1. Brooks Koepka
  2. Xander Schauffele
  3. Rory McIlroy
  4. Scottie Scheffler
  5. Bryson DeChambeau
  6. Shane Lowry
  7. Alex Noren
  8. Will Zalatoris
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Keith Mitchell
  11. Hideki Matsuyama
  12. Billy Horschel
  13. Patrick Cantlay
  14. Viktor Hovland
  15. Adam Schenk
  16. Chris Kirk
  17. Sahith Theegala
  18. Min Woo Lee
  19. Joaquin Niemann
  20. Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024. 

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

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In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

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The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year. 

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child. 

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

  • 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
  • 2022: Max Homa (-8)
  • 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
  • 2019: Max Homa (-15)
  • 2018: Jason Day (-12)
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
  • 2016: James Hahn (-9)
  • 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult. 

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.01)
  4. Shane Lowry (+0.93)
  5. Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
  5. Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard. 

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

  1. Cameron Young (28’2″)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
  4. Sam Burns (+30’6″)
  5. Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week. 

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
  3. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Taylor Moore (+0.82)
  2. Nick Dunlap (+.76)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+.69)
  4. Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
  5. Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow. 

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

  1. Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
  2. Justin Thomas (+1.96)
  3. Jason Day (+1.92)
  4. Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
  5. Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

  1. Wyndham Clark
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Xander Schauffele
  4. Shane Lowry
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Viktor Hovland 
  7. Cameron Young
  8. Austin Eckroat 
  9. Byeong Hun An
  10. Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024. 

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week. 

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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