After consulting with my team, I’ve decided to take this week off and rest up for the weeks ahead.

I’m kidding, of course, but last weekend’s WGC-Cadillac Championship had a majors-type effect on golfers and its viewership. That was a brutal four days of golf unleashed by TPC Blue Monster on its PGA Tour patrons.

As such, this week’s 2014 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course (formerly the Tampa Bay Classic) will be light on big names and a chance for gamers to create some separation, such as what Patrick Reed did on the final two days to snag his third PGA Tour win in 14 starts. He’ll sit out this week, along with Tiger Woods and his bad back and a slew of others eyeing the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill the following weekend, of which Tiger is the defending champion and an eight-time winner at the venue.

Who’s won at Copperhead? Last year it was Kevin Streelman edging out a hard-charging Boo Weekley by two shots for his first Tour win.

Let’s make some fantasy prognostications in another edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

At this point in the year, how many starts a player has left begins to play a big part in strategy. There are several players I’m going to pass on this week in favor of horse for the course types that I have almost full starts available to use. Barring some horrific performance by a would-be front runner, I should be right in the mix and a hold the lead I’ve built through careful weekly selections. I’m not big on guessing. I like converging trends of recent play and course history, so if a golfer has both I’ll disregard starts in favor of getting a win. Here’s a few risky picks, for varying reasons, this week.

Russell Knox

Knox alerted many to his Tour presence by being involved in the four-man playoff at The Honda Classic won by Russell Henley. His tournament was buoyed by a second-round 63. He’s put together three top-15s in his last five starts, which could suggest he’s figuring some things out. But he missed the cut in his only appearance here in 2011 and consistency is still a question mark. But he’s hitting fairways and hitting greens on approach, which has helped him reach a 69.81 scoring average this season. A little too risky for me at this point.

Harris English

There’s only a small amount of risk in using English and that dates back to a missed cut at this event in 2012. And that’s because English seems to have turned a corner, which factors in a T7 last year, two wins since then and a fantastic start to this season where he hasn’t missed a cut, has run off six top-10s and managed a T16 at the difficult WGC-Cadillac Championship. He’s done so well that you have to watch how many starts you’ve used him for already, though I don’t blame you if you want to keep running him out there while he’s hot. Good chance I do the same.

Kevin Streelman

The defending champion hasn’t missed a cut this season in eight starts, which is a good sign if you’re looking for someone to play the weekend. He’s also mixed in a T3 and T8 to his starts and held himself together at Doral to grab a T25. He’s performing much better to start this year than he did last year when he walked into Innisbrook and strung together rounds of 73-69-65-67. He also has a T10 here in 2012, so it’s not a stretch to think he can compete on a course that potentially suits his game.

Matt Kuchar

The reason Kuchar slides into this category as opposed to a true lock is because he seems to get himself in contention midway through a tournament, but for whatever reason he fades away when he has a chance to win. That happened at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and again at Doral. So while I don’t doubt he will contend in some fashion, I am alarmed he doesn’t have more to show for it. His recent success at this event reads: T14 (’13), T10 (’12) and T12 (’09). This will be a week I take a break on him and save starts for further in the season.

K.J. Choi

A two-time winner at this event in 2002 and 2006, Choi’s history shows he will be successful here and he’s actually played decent this season with five top-20s, including a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Coming off a T12 at the Northern Trust Open, Choi faces an Innisbrook course he shot 69-67-76-70 on last year on the way to a T21 result. Two poor results followed a solo second in 2010. So he’s up and down, but you could do a lot worse for a flier

REWARD

Based on how groupings line up across various games, you may find yourself in a quandary. From the five reward picks below, two are in Yahoo group A. That leaves someone good like Kuchar on the bench, but I’m confident it won’t blow up in my face. In the PGATour.com league, I’m looking at starts but not as much as I am maximizing FedEx Cup points. I’m a little off the pace there so I’d like to get back in the mix. And for Golf Channel, I’m riding high after using Patrick Reed in Group 4 last week, which is handy because I’m not sold on the golfers in Group 3 and 4 this week. Here are what I view to be the five best pros to use this particular week.

Jordan Spieth

I’ve used Spieth a good bit so far, so I’m going to put him on my roster in Yahoo leagues but wait until the weekend to see where he stands. He scored a T7 last year which was a nice debut and he’s only gotten better since. His resolve was shown last week in Doral, which leads me to believe he will navigate any unreasonable temps that could hit on the weekend. A top-5 is imminent.

Gary Woodland

Tampa is the site of Woodland’s first Tour victory in 2011, and he underwent some struggles after that before swing changes resulted in a victory last August at the Reno-Tahoe Open. Since then, he looks like a much more confident golfer as evidenced by second-place finishes at the Barclays and this season’s CIMB Classic. Coming off a T16 at Doral, I expect to see the Woodland who shot 67-68-67-67 to take down the 2011 field.

Jason Dufner

We know now that when Dufner begins to get hot, look out. Well, Dufner has begun to get hot and I’m jumping on board right away. He scored fifth at the Hyundai TOC, made a run in match play and tied for ninth at the WGC-Cadillac despite a final round 76. When he began to warm up last year, he capitalized with a major win at the PGA Championship. He’s consistently been inside the top 25 at this event the last five years and I like him to be in the top 10 this week.

Webb Simpson

Other than beat the ball around for the first two days at Doral, Simpson hasn’t done much wrong this season. He has five top-10s, won his opening tournament, made a run in match play and has been a steady in-the-60s scorer most of his career. He finished T17 at the Tampa Bay Championship last year, T10 in ’12, solo second in ’11, and T13 in ’10. He should clearly be in the mix as he sits at third on Tour in strike gained putting.

Luke Donald

Donald’s entering his fifth start of the season, which is one tournament more than he typically has at this point. Whether that means anything or not, his game seems to agree well with Innisbrook with a T6 in 2010, a win in 2012 and a T4 last year. I’m keen to use him with 10 starts remaining and a true horse for the course.

RUIN

We’re only three weeks away from the Yahoo winter segment ending with plenty of golf left for the entire season. Slow and steady wins the race. Be calculated in your hunches, but watch be defiant that someone is going to compete solely because you want them to. Jonesing for feel good stories and guessing on first-time winners is a good way to lose golfers heading into the weekend, where those extra points can mean the difference in winning or losing. Be careful not to get ruined by silly, avoidable picks.

Retief Goosen

Are you going to be the guy who pulls the trigger on Goosen, who’s bio declares him a two-time champion of this event and the all-time money winner? There are select instances to use players like Goosen, but don’t throw caution to the wind across all games. I am all for course history, but he doesn’t have a win since 2009 at this event and has been getting considerably less effective with every passing year. If you’re banking on a successful outing in the twilight of his career, consider that he did miss the cut last year following solo fifth, T28, and T20 finishes since his win. I think the best you can do is 20th and I’d rather use a start on someone with a legitimate chance to win, although I find myself drawn to him in Golf Channel’s Group 4 with a weak pool to draw him.

Brendon de Jonge

The native of Zimbabwe is heading the wrong direction at the moment, and it doesn’t help that he got banged up a bit at Doral. He nearly withdrew with tightness in his ribs, but stuck around to grab a payday of $51k. I would have too, I guess, but if you’re making fantasy projections, that doesn’t bode well for a full-field, weekend-cut event. Add in the fact that he’s played poorly his last five starts, has a T43 (’13) and MC (’12) to chase the T5 he put up in 2011, previously hadn’t broken the top 40 in the two years before, and you have enough red flags to run the other way.

Peter Hanson

Hanson has just two starts at Innisbrook, one a T15, the other a T55. He skipped out last year in a season where he played well in the early part of the year. Somehow he’s ranked 61st in the world, which put him in the field for the Accenture Match Play Championships where he upset Dustin Johnson in the first round. But don’t be fooled by that brief moment in the sun. He was subsequently thumped by Victor Dubuisson, before promptly getting bounced after two days at the Honda Classic. In nine years playing PGA Tour events, Hanson has just eight top-10s total. There’s no reason to consider him this week.

Sang-Moon Bae

The sample size for Bae is still small with only two whole seasons under his belt. What we do know is he’s only strung together two tournaments where he’s been in the 60s all four days. One was a win at the HP Byron Nelson Championship last year and the other was at this tournament in 2012, resulting in a second-place finish in a four-man playoff to champion Luke Donald. Last year, Bae shot 2-over par over his four days, good for T43. So if you’re looking for a flyer, keep looking. 

John Huh

Another third-year pro, Huh has struggled in nine starts this season. He only has three good results to speak of in two seasons, which includes a win at the Mayakoba Golf Classic his rookie year. Copperhead definitely doesn’t agree with Huh, having been snake bitten twice in his two starts. There’s some talent in him, but he has a long way to go to harness it.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the Valspar Championship, who would win in an Ian Poulter-Hideki Matsuyama cage match, or discuss any fantasy lineup dilemmas. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: L. Donald (S), G. Woodland

Group B: J. Dufner (S), G. DeLaet (S), W. Simpson, J. Spieth

Group C: H. English (S), C. Hoffman

(Last week: 134 points; Winter segment: 1,524; Rank: 2,785 – 96th percentile)

PGATour.com

H. English, G. Woodland, W. Simpson, L. Donald

(Last week: 267 points; Season: 2,795; Rank: 5,082)

Golf Channel

Group 1: Luke Donald

Group 2: Harris English

Group 3: Will MacKenzie

Group 4: Retief Goosen

(Last week: $2,124,543; Season: $6,349,097; Mulligan: $28,666; Rank: 5,008 of 47,471)