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How Kings Are Made: The Next Big Little Thing On Tour

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If you are a frequent visitor of GolfWRX, you are probably a golfer on the constant search for an edge on the course. You peruse the different forums anxiously hoping to find that some little thing that you’ve convinced yourself will make the difference in your game. I know this because I’m wired the same way.

I’ve spent countless nights huddled up in the dark corners of this website reading, rereading and reading again some fresh insight on Ben Hogan’s “Five Lessons” that has me convinced by morning that I’ve figured out “the secret.” I’ve dedicated as much time to analyzing what Oakley lens is best for my sunglasses (G30 non-polarized by the way) as I did preparing for the SAT.

I’ve read reviews on golf bags, balls, clubs, shoes, shirts, pants, hats, belts, instructors, practice facilities and even sunblock (Banana Boat Sport Performance UltraMist seems to be a popular choice). The point is that I, and presumably most of you, partake in this excessively analytical and borderline obsessive-compulsive behavior for a very basic reason: As long as it’s within the rules, I will take advantage of every edge, no matter how small, if it helps me on the course.

With that context in mind, I would like to introduce you to a new product that could soon become the primary return when we inevitably search for “Best on-course snack:” KingMade Jerky. Now I’m guessing some of you may have already heard about this product either by reading through the GolfWRX thread on it, or Alan Shipnuck’s in-depth look at the company’s founder and backstory on Golf.com: http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/tour-caddie-jeff-king-turns-pro-beef-jerky-business.

Rather than rehashing the content that is already out there (the thread is a great source for reviews and the column serves as an excellent primer on the company), I instead want to focus on the marketing hype surrounding KingMade Jerky and how it has the potential to turn into a hugely profitable operation.

When I think about the psychology behind marketing products to golfers, there are generally two very distinct strategies that have both proven to be effective in their own unique way, and I believe KingMade Jerky is in the rare position to capitalize on both of them. For lack of a better phrase I’ll call the first strategy “Play what the pros play,” which is based on the very basic principle that we, the consumer, will want to use the same product as people who are better than us, thinking “if it’s good enough for them then it’s certainly good enough for me.” This strategy is the very basis of sports marketing. It’s the reason why Jordan brand is so successful, the rationale that children use when they beg their parents to spend $200 on a pair of Lebron’s. To be perfectly honest, it’s also 100 percent the reason I own the same irons Tiger Woods players, a set of Nike blades.

Tiger King Made jerky

As it relates to golf and specifically this website, it’s the underlying principle behind having a forum like “What’s In The Bag,” we may not always buy exactly what the pros play, but we still want to know what the “best of the best” are using. The club companies and equipment manufactures are well aware of this fact and they understand that by attaching themselves to successful tour players they are essentially buying credibility with a large portion of the consuming public.

I say “large portion” because GolfWRXers and other like-minded consumers tend to be less inclined to buy into the marketing hype and more likely to be skeptical of the inherent problem with paying players to use a certain products:

Is the athlete endorsing this product because it’s actually good, or are they simply doing it for the money?

More often than not, I think we can all agree it’s the money and not the efficacy of the product that serves as the driving force behind the large majority (read: 99.9 percent) of athlete endorsements. In light of this inescapable reality, the discerning consumer must turn to another resource to determine which product they should buy, which brings us to the second marketing strategy: crowdsourcing.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the term, “crowdsourcing” is the process of obtaining information about something by soliciting opinions/reviews from a large group of people. Examples of crowdsourcing include going on to Yelp to read reviews about a restaurant/hotel you plan on visting, checking out IMDB or Rotten Tomatoes to see what others think about a certain movie, and even logging into GolfWRX and (as I previously mentioned) researching what others believe to believe to be the best sunblock for the golf course.

While “play what the pros play” is dependent upon hype and big budget ad campaigns, crowdsourcing is a strategy that involves a conscious decision to eschew that traditional marketing model. Rather than relying on celebrity endorsements, crowdsourcing simply focuses on creating a great product with the hope and belief that enough positive reviews (on sites like Yelp, IMDB and GolfWRX) will yield a groundswell of popular support that will allow the product to earn the credibility that it needs without allocating a king’s ransom toward its marketing budget. Now that we have positioned the two strategies and shown how they both coexist in today’s marketplace, let’s think for a moment about how they specifically relate to us here on GolfWRX and what it means for KingMade Jerky (I promise you I’m getting there).

Humor me for a moment and engage in small exercise that I think will help make my point. (If you’re not already doing so) I would like you to take a second and picture the different assortment of clubs in your golf bag and think about how you came to the decision to buy each and every one. Why did you buy that driver? Was it because of the commercial that promised 16 more yards? Was it because you saw you’re favorite player using it? Maybe you took a bunch of different ones to the range/launch monitor and this one simply performed the best.

How about those irons? Were you sold by reading the glowing reviews of other GolfWRXers? Did Joe Kwok (whom I can’t say enough positive things about) fit you for them? Or are you a simply a brand loyalist who would never use anything else?

What was the thought process behind your wedges? Are you a Bob Vokey/Roger Cleveland disciple? Did you decide to stray from the pack and pick up a customized set from Scratch (no pun intended)?

And what about your putter? Did you buy a Scotty Cameron because that’s what all the good players at your club use? Or maybe you were looking for something cheap and you found a great deal on BST/eBay? Whatever the case may be (and believe me I’m not judging anyone here), there was definitely some sort of thought process that went into each of those decisions and, whether you like to believe it or not, they were all somewhat influenced by external forces ranging from big-budget ad campaigns to a simple user review. All of which brings us, at long last, to the topic at hand and how I believe KingMade Jerky can capitalize on all of this in it’s pursuit of becoming a profitable company.

First off, let’s tackle “play what the pros play,” or in this case, “eat what the pros eat” and understand how KingMade fits in here. If you follow golf closely and you are a one of the millions who use social media as a vehicle to connect with your favorite golfers then more than likely you have come across tweets such as these:

Cleveland Tweet
Fowler Tweet
GMac Tweet
Greg Moore Tweet
Harry Arnett Tweet
Horschel Tweet

Furthermore, aside from the names listed above, our own Greg Moore has noted in the KingMade GolfWRX thread that other notable names such as Tiger Woods (who reportedly ate a whole 1 pound bag over nine holes at Firestone), Joe LaCava, Matt Kuchar, Scott Brown, Luke List, James Hahn and Scott Stallings all eat it as well.

Initially, the skeptic in me wanted to think that the buzz was a result of the fraternity-like bond between Tour players and caddies. Since KingMade was created by a PGA Tour caddy, weren’t all these guys just looking out for their own and trying to help out one of their buddies? But at a certain point the evidence becomes too overwhelming. I’m not saying these guys are greedy (I would be the exact same way), but it usually takes pretty decent sized check for PGA Tour players to so enthusiastically endorse a product and then broadcast their support to the hundreds of thousands of people that follow them. In this case, and we have to take them at their word, it appears that KingMade jerky has been able to accomplish the “holy grail” of celebrity endorsements: getting them to do it for free.

Just think about how much more powerful the message becomes once you know that these pros aren’t being paid for their support. In fact, let’s juxtapose KingMade’s marketing message with what I believe to be one of the more poorly conceived corporate partnerships on tour: Jim Furyk and 5 Hour Energy.

Sports Business Daily estimates that 5 Hour Energy pays Furyk somewhere in the range of the “high six figures to low seven figures” to feature their logo on his hat. While I certainly understand the rationale behind getting the air time that goes along with being affixed to a prominent tour player’s head, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a consumer who walks into a convenience store looking to buy 5 Hour Energy simply because Jim Furyk uses it (if anything I think it’s had the opposite effect as I’m sure most of us have heard some variation of the “I bet he wishes it was 5 1/2 Hour Energy” jokes after one of Furyk’s unfortunate late-round collapses). The point is that when we watch Jim Furyk in one of those goofy commercials, we know he isn’t endorsing the product because he really loves it. He’s doing it for the money, which is totally fine except for the fact that it devalues the message.

On the other hand, we have KingMade jerky, whose message and credibility becomes exponentially more powerful with each and every uncompensated celebrity endorsement. It’s an important distinction that may go unnoticed at first, but one I’m sure Jeff King and his team are profoundly aware and appreciative of it. While it appears KingMade has already achieved and presumably exceeded their goals as it relates to “play what the pros play,” in order for them to capitalize on that success they are going to need to experience similar success in the realm of crowdsourcing. As of this writing, KingMade currently has 678 Twitter followers, 851 “Likes” on Facebook, and a 77-post thread on GolfWRX with user reviews ranging from: “This is by far the best jerky out right now,” to “Well worth the price” to “A bit underwhelmed….sorry but not as good as advertised.”

Clearly this is the space where KingMade needs to make up the most ground. Obviously no product will ever be able to garner 100 percent support from 100 percent of consumers, but they definitely need to do everything they can to expand their reach (particularly on social media) so that there are more mouths to spread the (hopefully good) word.

While I have never tried the product and therefore I cannot speak to whether or not it lives up to the lofty expectations set by the tour players we just talked about, I will tell you that this is not a company that I would bet against. For starters, I don’t believe that that many influential people would go out of their way to support a product (or a friend) for free without truly believing in it. So with that in mind let’s work off of the premise that KingMade has managed to create a very solid product.

Here’s what I see happening in the coming months: We will continue to see PGA Tour players and influencers tweet about the product as they continue to try and help out a member of their fraternity and that will continue to build the brand’s awareness certainly among hard-core golfers and eventually among more casual fans as well.We will also start to see KingMade popping up on the television coverage every once in awhile, may in the way of a player’s towel as seen here:

A Kingmade Jerky towel on PGA Tour player Scott Brown's bag.

A Kingmade Jerky towel on PGA Tour player Scott Brown’s bag.

Or perhaps we might even catch Tiger, GMac, Rickie, or Kuch devouring a bag during a stoppage in play. The more examples we get of this, the more you are going to see people Googling “What was Rickie Fowler eating on the seventh tee” or tweeting at Golf Channel’s Tiger Tracker asking him, “What was that snack El Tigre just pulled out of his bag?” These may seem like trivial examples, but in this day in age it’s how nascent brands with little-to-no advertising budget get built. Outside of the PGA Tour, I think you are going to start see “in the know” golfers breaking out bags of KingMade at your local course, which will inevitably lead to questions from the rest of the foursome, a sample piece or two, and if it’s agreeable to them, a new customer.

If you consider yourself a “stick” or at least someone who wants to look like a good golfer, think about how quickly some other similar products have spread like wildfire and become ubiquitous at amateur tournaments. Have you ever seen a commercial for how driveway markers can be used as alignment aids? I doubt it, but you have seen tour players and other really good amateurs with those orange rods sticking out of their bag, so you went and got one too (I know I did).

What about Amino Vital energy drink? I’ve personally never seen the product advertised on television, but I went and bought some because I saw it all over tour player’s towels and I wanted whatever edge they were getting. How about something as simple as the “Player’s Towel”? Up until a couple of years ago, all the good players I knew were still using those cheap hotel towels. You know, the ones that are a little shorter than normal with the little lines in them. Then, all of a sudden, I played with a guy in a  tournament who was using a Player’s Towel. I thought it looked cool, so I asked him about it and then went and bought one. And I wasn’t the only one. The next thing I knew, they were everywhere. It’s a fascinating cycle where these smaller, usually more expensive, boutique-type products basically go viral within the golf community and they blow up and become profitable companies.

One of the best parts of being a member of the GolfWRX community is having the ability to learn about these companies in their infancy, watching them grow up before your very own eyes and rooting for the good people behind the scenes during the entire process (and let’s be honest it’s also fun to be the guy in your group whose always ahead of the game, like getting in early on a successful IPO). Off the top of my head, besides the ones I previously listed, I can think of several examples of companies like these who have gone on to experience some serious success in the industry: Byron Morgan, Scratch, KBS, Jones Golf Bags, Stitch and Iliac Headcovers… the list goes on and on.

KingMade is easy to dismiss because it’s “just” a snack company, but if we are willing to invest the time and energy to find the right Oakley lens or best sunblock, shouldn’t we care just as much about our on-course nutrition? If I was a betting man I’d wager that we will. In the eternal pursuit of every edge, there is no detail too small and no rock that should go left unturned. If I’m going to have a snack on the course, then I want to have the BEST snack. And if KingMade is as good as they say it is, then I’ll bite, hook, line and sinker.

To paraphrase the motivational speech that Al Pacino delivers toward the end of Any Given Sunday, life (and golf) is a game of inches, which is why it’s time for me to wrap up this column. The UPS guy is at the door. He just arrived with my sample pack.

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Jack McAuliffe is an aspiring golf everything: writer, agent, marketer, even player…really he just needs a job. He also runs TheGolfDog.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @ElNino22.

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Vonny

    Sep 23, 2013 at 4:27 am

    Great article……Congratulations Jeff on the best beef jerky ever!!

  2. matt

    Sep 21, 2013 at 8:04 pm

    it was 48.00 for 6 1 pound bags..so really not that expensive, I would like to try some.

  3. Christine Benko

    Sep 21, 2013 at 8:18 am

    I loved this article! #kingmade jerky is definitely set up for success! Great product, great marketing, and a fast growing group of followers/spokespersons!!! Couldn’t be more proud!! And, for the record, “these guys are good” and this jerky is good!!! I was “hook, line & sinker” and they had me at bag #1!

  4. J

    Sep 20, 2013 at 11:32 pm

    Yup. Sure did.

    We REALLY needed yet ANOTHER article about beef jerky.

    Thanks.

    • Nick

      Sep 21, 2013 at 12:14 am

      Thought it was a great article. Jeff is a great guy. He’s not sponsoring any of these guys to eat it or support it. Guys on tour are eating it bc it’s that dam good. Funny guys on here will spend $6.50 for bad tough jerky but won’t spend an extra $1.50 for the best jerky you’ll ever eat. It’s tender, flavorful and very healthy for you. Why not give it a try before you bash it. Eat what the pros eat! #crushbags

      • J

        Sep 21, 2013 at 12:31 pm

        Wasn’t bashing the Jerky.
        Pay attention.
        We didn’t need another promotion for this beef jerky. There has already been articles about it. Don’t need it shoved down our throats repeatedly.

        • Nick

          Sep 21, 2013 at 9:51 pm

          This is a forum that’s what things like this are for. There’s a hundred topics on Cameron’s, vokeys,Tiger, taylormade etc,. Why can’t there be multiple topics on beef jerky made for and by golfers? I think once you try it your opinion might change. Give it a try go #crushbags

          • J

            Sep 22, 2013 at 1:44 pm

            Once again. Not the jerky. I have tried it. It’s jerky.

            And your right, hundreds of articles about all kinds of things golf.

            This isn’t SnackWRX.

            It’s shameless promotion for a company that doesn’t pay to be a sponsor. Period.

    • John

      Sep 24, 2013 at 6:45 am

      I bet you have a ton of friends that love being around you…

  5. Cdubs

    Sep 20, 2013 at 7:42 pm

    $54 for a 16 oz bag!!!

    • nip

      Sep 20, 2013 at 10:57 pm

      only us ‘pro-business’ golfers can afford it. lol

      outta my grad student budget.

  6. K dubb

    Sep 20, 2013 at 3:13 pm

    Well that was different, so is this jerky available in North Texas?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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