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Deutsche Bank Championship: Picks and Preview

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The PGA Tour heads from just outside one of our nation’s great cities to just south of another this week, as the second leg of the FedExCup playoffs comes to TPC Boston.

The Gil Hanse-rehabilitated 7,207-yard par-71 track, plays host to the top 100 players in the FedExCup rankings. All 100 will be looking to go low in Norton, as TPC Boston played as the fourth-easiest of all par 71s on tour last year (70.647).

This week’s winner will likely need to shoot in the vicinity of 20-under for the competition in order to become the second winner of a FedExCup playoff event in 2013. At a track that’s not overly demanding, proximity on approaches and quality putting will be key this week.

Catch the Deutsche Bank Championship on TV by tuning in to:

  • Friday and Saturday: Golf Channel 3-6 p.m. ET
  • Sunday: Golf Channel 1-2:30 p.m., NBC 3-6 p.m. ET
  • Monday: Golf Channel 11:30 a.m.-1:00 p.m., NBC 1-6 p.m. ET

Here’s a look at who the oddsmakers favor to win in Norton and a pick to win.

Tiger Woods: 13-2 odds*

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Assuming the world No. 1 puts a peg in the ground this week, he’ll be the favorite to win the event. Most recently at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Tiger tied for 10th (twice) and finished third. Woods’ results have been mixed lately. Or, if you prefer, he’s continued the pattern established in the years succeeding his 2008 U.S. Open win: quality play in Tour events, lackluster play in majors (particularly on the weekends). Most recently, after a commanding performance at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Woods sputtered at the PGA Championship, finishing tied for 40th.

The issue for Tiger this week, of course, will be his ailing back. If he plays, you can bet its because he’s been told that doing so won’t further damage his back or compromise his play in the future. Alternatively, the top-ranked golfer’s dorsal region could be improving. Whatever the case, Woods will persevere with his trademark mettle.

However, it’s difficult to see Tiger going low across four days to win this thing. Regardless, he’s played the course well enough (third last year) in recent memory that it’s difficult to see him finishing too far off the lead with what he has in his toolbox.

Adam Scott: 10-1 odds

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The winner of last week’s playoff event, Adam Scott won at TPC Boston in 2003 and finished tied for seventh last year on the strength of a final-round 66. TPC Boston is a course which has some strange sight lines and rewards experienced players. There’s no one element that’s particularly challenging about the Arnold Palmer layout, so it’s likely that a great/hot putter will lift the trophy this week.

Adam Scott has not been a great putter historically. However, he’s positioned at 84th in strokes gained-putting currently, and more importantly, is picking up strokes on the field (.076) with the flatstick for the first time since 2007. On paper, and given his recent form, Scott has the best chance to win this tournament. However, the statistical improbability of back-to-back wins makes it difficult to see this year’s Masters champions emerging victorious.

Phil Mickelson: 12-1 odds

Phil_Mickelson_Ryder_Cup_2012

Phil has a lot of good things going for him this week. He’s coming off a quality ballstriking week at Liberty National, where he finished tied for sixth. He’s been putting out of his mind this year (currently fifth in strokes gained-putting) and he finished inside the top 10 at the Deutsche Bank Championship the past two years. Additionally, he won at TPC Boston in 2007.

Given all these elements, Phil could do very well in this event. However, the 43-year-old has competed for four consecutive weeks. Even with the controlled/contained nature of his psoriatic arthritis, he has to be fatigued. It’s difficult to see Phil being able to summon enough to win this week in Norton. Even so, if he can dig deep enough and gets hot with the putter on Friday or Saturday, I could see him riding a wave of momentum to a win.

Rory McIlroy: 14-1 odds

Rory_McIlroy_2013

It’s strange how, in the span of a year, Rory McIlroy has gone from being a lock to play well every time he tees it up to a perceived wildcard. Really, McIlroy’s 2013 (while lacking a victory) has been decent. His average finish has been around 25th place. Yet, as he was expected to succeed Tiger Woods to the throne, this year has been a disappointment. His top-10 finish at the PGA Championship elicited whispers that the golfer might be rounding into form and a second-round 65 at The Barclays last week was encouraging.

McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank last year, and his performance this week will showcase either a Woods-ian ability to play incredibly well at the same courses/events year after year, regardless of larger performance trends, or serve as a contrast to how far the boy wonder is off his late 2012 form.

Keegan Bradley: 33-1 odds

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In case you were somehow unaware, Keegan Bradley is a native New Englander and a big Boston sports fan. Born in Woodstock, Vermont, Bradley moved to Hopkinton, Mass., for his senior year prior to heading off to Queens to attend St. John’s University. While attending high school in Hopkinton he won the Massachusetts Interscholastic Athletic Association (MIAA) Division 2 individual state championship in 2004.

Bradley tied for 13th at the Deutsche Bank Championship last year after missing the cut in his previous attempt. This points to a level of comfort with a course that can take a while to warm up to. His average proximity from the hole on approaches from 150-175 yards (28′ 2″), as well as his average approaches from 125-150 yards (24′ 11″) are worrying. However, he’s made a lot of birdies this year, averaging 3.7 per round (24th on tour), and his putting has been solid (47th in strokes gained putting).

On a spell of good form, excited to be playing near Boston, warming up to the TPC course, and motivated by his buddy Jason Dufner’s recent PGA Championship win, Keegan Bradley could surprise this week.

 *odds courtesy of Bovada

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1 Comment

  1. B MAC

    Aug 29, 2013 at 6:17 am

    Go Rory Scotty and Keegan !!!

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