Opinion & Analysis

The data behind Luke Donald’s decision to change instructors

Published

11 years ago

Oct 2, 2013

Luke Donald recently made an instructor change to Texas-based swing coach Chuck Cook.

Back in 2011, Donald had an epic season. He finished first on the PGA Tour money list and the European Tour’s Order of Merit. He also became the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world. So the next obvious step for Donald was to win a major championship. But the fine play he exhibited in 2011 rarely resurfaced in 2012. He regained some of his old magic in 2013, but not enough to leave him satisfied.

So, what has happened to Donald’s game to make him switch instructors? First, let’s take a look at some basic scoring analysis, comparing his 2011 season versus his 2013 season.

The order of importance of these metrics when it comes to mathematically correlating to success on Tour is as follows:

Par-4 Scoring Average
Bogey Rate
Par-5 Scoring Average
Birdie Rate
Par-3 Scoring Average

So, the major drop-offs were in metrics Nos. 2, 3 and 4.

Bogey Rate is the most important metric here. Having a low Bogey Rate is about two aspects of the game:

Being able to save par.
Being able to hit your approach shots close to the hole, where it greatly decreases the odds of making bogey.

The latter is what many golfers do not understand about why Bogey Rate is more important (from a mathematical standpoint) than Birdie Rate. The best way to avoid bogeys is to not put yourself in position to make them. Even the worst putters in the world are not going to make bogeys if they hit 16 or more greens per round and have an average birdie putt of less than 20 feet.

With that said, let’s take a look at Donald’s key performance metrics of 2011 versus 2013:

First, we should acknowledge that Luke’s 2011 season could very well never be replicated again. He ranked No. 1 on shots from 75 to 125 yards and shots from 125 to 175 yards. He also ranked first in Putts Gained. It is no small wonder why he played so brilliantly in 2011; if he had an approach shot from 175 yards or less he was by far the best player in the world. And if he was farther than 175 yards away from the hole, he was very good.

With that said, we start to see a noticeable difference in his play on the longer approach shots. When we examine it more closely we start to see a fairly large regression. Here are Donald’s rankings on long approach shots from the fairway/tee box in 2011 versus 2012.

This would explain the increase in Bogey Rate. Longer approach shots, particularly those from the Danger Zone, is where golfers tend to put themselves in position to make a bogey or a double bogey. Donald has seen a fairly large drop off on shots from 150 to 175 yards, but a massive drop off on shots from 200 to 225 yards.

Donald has never been very effective off the tee since he has been on Tour. In fact, his 2011 season (where he finished 132nd in Driving Effectiveness) was his best year with the driver on Tour. I believe that is what has held him back from winning a major, and why a course like Augusta National ends up fitting him the best out of all of the majors championship venues. It is very much an approach-shot-oriented course, and one where putting is extremely important. The other majors often require more precise and effective driving of the ball. The drawback is that Augusta also favors long hitters, which hurts Donald’s odds of winning a major there.

I would imagine that part of the change to a new instructor was that Donald hoped he could improve his tee play. At his club-head speed and distance off the tee, he needs to be able to hit about at least 68 percent of his fairways and get his Average Distance to the Edge of the Fairway to around 22 feet or less. Here is Donald’s data in these metrics during the past four years:

While Donald is not very far away from hitting 68 percent plus of his fairways and having an average Distance to the Edge of the Fairway of 22 feet or less, it goes to show that the slightest discrepancy can be the difference between being forecasted to win a major or two and having yet to win a major.

What I find interesting about Donald’s driving is in the radar data. Last year, there was a launch monitor report circulating on the web of Donald’s impact data. The launch monitor had Donald with a 2.5-degree downward attack angle with the driver. However, if you look at his radar metrics for this year on Tour there are some things that do not quite add up.

What we know about downward attack angles with the driver is that they result in golfers not hitting the ball as high or as far as they normally would with a “flat” attack angle or an upward attack angle. Furthermore, the downward attack angle will produce a higher spin rate.

What we see is that Donald’s distance ranking is noticeably worse than his ranking in clubhead speed. That is part of what we would logically assume given his downward attack angle. Furthermore, he has the 19th highest Spin Rate on Tour (2,922 RPMs). This is also in line with a golfer that hits the ball with a downward attack angle with the driver.

However, there are some contradictory metrics. His launch angle is fairly high (11.25 degrees), and he has the 41st highest ball flight on Tour. And as we know, higher clubhead speed players will generally hit the ball higher as well. Donald is a lower clubhead speed player who has a high ball flight. He is also doing it with a fairly high launch angle, but the spin rate is high.

I think the key piece to this is his ranking in Smash Factor (91st). And I believe what is happening for Donald is that he is hitting above the “sweet spot” on his driver. Tom Wishon has discussed how hitting above the “sweet spot” affects the ball’s flight with this diagram.

Drivers are not designed to have a perfectly flat face. They have something called “vertical face roll,” which means that the face of the driver has a bulging design and the bulge runs horizontally (face bulged) and vertically (face roll).

With the larger 460cc drivers, this produces a club where if the golfer hits below the “sweet spot,” there is less loft. Conversely, if the golfer hits above the sweet spot, there is more loft. From there, the horizontal gear effect comes into play and if the golfer hits the ball above the sweet spot, that means the gear effect will reduce the spin on the ball.

Here are Donald’s radar metrics during the past four years.

Perhaps changes in equipment are a reason behind Donald’s unorthodox radar numbers given his 2.5-degree downward attack angle. But, his spin rate has lowered while his trajectory has gotten higher. And he still has an issue with getting his distance off the tee to match his club-head speed.

Donald will have his work cut out for him. But if he can get his long approach shot play back to his 2011 performance he will be very close to his old form. And if he can figure out his driving woes on top of it, he can be even better than he once was.

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Tiger vs. Jack: A definitive answer

Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

21 Comments

MartyMouse

Oct 12, 2013 at 8:02 am

Enough about dynamic Loft!! Luke still has all the tools to get right back on top. Very interesting and well written! Thank you Richie!

Reply Report comment
timmy

Oct 11, 2013 at 5:57 pm

whats the significance of distance to edge data?

isn’t it possible, if not probable, that these pros intended to land the ball on certain spots of the fairway?

middle of the fairway is not always the best spot for second shot

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Oct 14, 2013 at 3:08 pm
  
  Distance to the Edge of the fairway is based on shots that *miss* the fairway. The significance is it helps measure how large a player’s misses are.
  
  Reply Report comment
Andrew Cooper

Oct 4, 2013 at 7:09 pm

No disrespect, he’s a very decent player, but how he got to world no.1 beats me..

Reply Report comment
- rdred
  
  Oct 10, 2013 at 7:07 am
  
  What part of it aren’t you understanding? This article has the stats right there, infront of your eyes…Did you read the article before typing your embarrassing comment?
  
  Best from the birdie zone.
  Best from the safe zone.
  Most Putts Gained.
  Best scoring average on par 4s
  
  What part of this are you struggling to understand?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Andrew Cooper
    
    Oct 13, 2013 at 8:33 am
    
    No argument Donald is a very good player-but he’s not a great player. He has strengths, but he also has big weaknesses (162nd in ball striking in 2013).
    
    The key stats are 251 PGA Tour starts, 5 wins, 0 Majors-a very nice career but not World no.1 material…
    
    Reply Report comment
Roger

Oct 4, 2013 at 2:10 pm

Richie,
Really appreciate the analysis of the info!
The huge drop in 150/175 and 200/225 accuracy is easy to see.
Looks like the 2011 Irons are worth going back too……..

I got into a negative impact around 2 degrees around xmas
after being a +- Zero degrees hitter…took a while to fix!
Keep up the Very Interesting Articles please!
You know you can’t win over all the viewers in todays Instant Expert
World……………………………………………………………………………………

Reply Report comment
- naflack
  
  Oct 5, 2013 at 3:53 am
  
  passive aggressive and snarky, yes. subtle, no.
  
  Reply Report comment
FS

Oct 3, 2013 at 11:23 am

Very interesting!
Did he also change balls during this same period? Has the change in the ball affected the numbers that much?
The driver change obviously has affected it, for sure, but I wonder about the ball itself too. I wish there was some kind of machine that could tell us bit more about compression data of balls at impact besides just the Trackman smash factor data.
How about the shaft? Did he change shaft when he changed the head?
We all know that he also struggled with the change from the MP-62 to the 64.
Obviously if his proximity to the hole suffers he has to work harder on the greens so the putting suffers and it shows.

Nothing wrong with having a new set of eyes take a look at you. I hope he makes a good comeback next year.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Oct 3, 2013 at 2:07 pm
  
  I don’t know if he changed golf balls or shaft, etc. That’s why I stated that perhaps the equipment causes his unorthodox radar numbers with the driver.
  
  Putts Gained is based on putts made percentage, BUT with relation to the field. And it’s where the golfer putts from. So not hitting your irons as well is technically separate from Putts Gained because it’s basing it on your ability to make putts from certain distances. If you’re leaving yourself with 20 foot putts instead of 10 foot putts, obviously…you’ll make less putts. But, that doesn’t matter in putts gained because it’s testing how well you can make those 20 foot putts (in this example) versus how well the field does from 20 feet.
  
  Reply Report comment
naflack

Oct 3, 2013 at 8:43 am

If you already know that…why are stating the hitting down creates backspin when you clearly know that it doesn’t?

Reply Report comment
- naflack
  
  Oct 3, 2013 at 8:55 am
  
  Sorry but that makes no sense…
  I watched the maestro explain the entire thing.
  I’ll trust his explanation over yours, it’s makes more sense.
  Besides the fact that trackman data tells us that hitting down does not create spin by itself. Otherwise guys who hit down with their drivers would need less loft not more.
  I don’t understand with your knowledge how you draw such a conclusion that the player exhibited alone disputes?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Eric
    
    Oct 3, 2013 at 10:10 am
    
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDUQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftrackmangolf.com%2Fmedia%2F5bf8af87-1695-42f4-9bab-7235dff40c5c%2F-366222283%2FPDF%2F3.%2520Newsletter%2Fnewsletter7.pdf&ei=FXpNUqWRBaLbyQGUr4GICw&usg=AFQjCNH1hgUOtwI3ycrzx71h-aRqhw-kXA&sig2=55oagnKooa6ICoqpsr7bdQ&bvm=bv.53537100,d.aWc
    
    If by “hitting down” you mean increasing downward angle of attach while also tilting the club face down by the same amount, you’re right, no change in spin rate. But if your angle of attack is increased downward while the clubfaces remains the same, result is higher spin rate.
    
    So, if Donald knows he should have a launch angle with a driver of about 11-12 degrees, and is changing the driver static loft to achieve it while using a -2.5 deg AoA, the spin will increase. He should do the opposite to increase distance…raise AoA, but use loft that continues to get about 11 degrees of launch angle.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - naflack
      
      Oct 3, 2013 at 11:13 pm
      
      i wonder how many golfers understand the subtext involved, im guessing not many…
      
      Reply Report comment
  - Richie Hunt
    
    Oct 3, 2013 at 10:34 am
    
    I can guarantee you that Trackman Maestro would agree with me that dynamic loft by itself (as well as attack angle) will not increase the spin rate. It’s the increase in the difference between AoA and dynamic loft, otherwise known as Spin Loft, that increases or decreases spin rate.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - naflack
      
      Oct 3, 2013 at 11:08 pm
      
      im sure he would agree with the above premise…
      i dont however believe he would agree with the statement in the article that downward angle of attack increases spin rate.
      ive watched his videos, he states over and over again that the statement “hitting down increases spin” in and of itself is a myth. the distinction is important because the average golfer doesnt understand the difference between hitting down and spin loft. they see hitting down increases spin when unless they know how to do it properly it oly hurts their game.
      perhaps im the idiot and all the readers know the distinction, either way i felt the need to comment and appreciate your responses none the less.
      
      Reply Report comment
      - Richie Hunt
        
        Oct 4, 2013 at 8:58 am
        
        I think we typically see golfers generating more spin when they hit down because their spin loft is *likely* to increase. They may bring their dynamic loft down with it, but generally not enough to keep the spin loft consistent (at least IMO).
        
        The real point of that portion of the article was to explore Donald’s struggles with the driver over his career. I don’t know his average dynamic loft, but I did know his average attack angle. What I found interesting was his launch angle would increase and he had very unorthodox numbers when we look at his club head speed, spin rate, max height, distance, etc.
        
        It could be an equipment thing, but it could be where he is hitting the ball. And I’ve worked with a couple of clients that changed how high they tee the ball up and that has affected their radar metrics and subsequently their driving off the tee.
        
        I usually try to tie these articles in with what the average amateur could possibly learn. There’s a popular myth that hitting above the sweet spot on the modern driver is a ‘hot spot’ on the driver. It’s actually not and I was trying to bring that to the attention of the reader and show a possible case of where this may be detrimental to a player like Luke Donald.
        
        Reply Report comment
naflack

Oct 3, 2013 at 4:03 am

downward angle of attack DOES NOT produce a higher spin rate, more dynamic loft produces a higher spin rate.
the fact that he is as high as 19 in spin rate indicates that hitting down with the driver isnt increasing his spin rate.

dont believe me…google “track man maestro” then watch him on youtube.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Oct 3, 2013 at 7:59 am
  
  Sorry, but that’s incorrect. Dynamic loft by itself does NOT produce a higher spin rate. It’s about Spin Loft which is the difference between the Dynamic Loft and the Attack Angle. So all things being equal, if the attack angle gets steeper the spin loft increases and thus the spin rate increases. Conversely, all things being equal…if the dynamic loft increases the spin loft increases which means the spin will increase.
  
  Reply Report comment
td

Oct 2, 2013 at 8:59 pm

“The best way to avoid bogeys is to not put yourself in position to make them.”

Haha…I swear this guy is Tim Mccarver’s prodigy.

Reply Report comment
Lawrie Montague

Oct 2, 2013 at 8:39 pm

Rich thank you for sharing your analysis of Luke Donald’s current challenges with his game.

With the wealth of statistical data available to us it is fortunate that we have people like yourself who can drill down into the data and present it in a way that makes sense.

I wonder whether Luke Donald will be able to change his game enough to improve the numbers you suggest if he has to change some aspect of his golf swing.

I imagine that someone as knowledgeable and experienced as Chuck Cook will guide him carefully, but as someone who works with tour players and elite amateurs helping them to improve their numbers in key areas of their game it’s indeed a slippery slope.

Get it wrong and even great golfers are lost to the golf swing change wilderness, but get it right and Luke Donald might be able to bag himself a major or two.

Only time will tell. Thanks again for an insightful article.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

18 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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