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Opinion & Analysis

Surprises Who Could Win The PGA Championship

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The final major of 2013 — the PGA Championship — is just days away, giving one last chance for players to claim major glory. Deservedly so, Tiger Woods is commanding most of the attention after his runaway seven-shot win in last weekend’s Bridgestone Invitational.

Despite Woods’ impressive victory, the PGA Championship has a habit of throwing up surprise winners and the 2013 tournament could do just that. Last year, we saw the then-rising stature of Rory Mcilroy dominate a strong field of contenders winning by a massive eight shots. The three previous winners were outsiders at the time in Keegan Bradley, Martin Kaymer and Y.E. Yang.

Adding to the case for a long shot to win is 18-time major winner Jack Nicklaus who had this to say:

“The player has to suit his game to the golf course and the guys that can adapt to it are the guys that always have been the good players,” Nicklaus said. “I mean, (Phil) Mickelson will adapt well to it. Tiger will adapt well to it. I think there’s a lot of guys that will adapt well to it.

“You have so many good players today that I think will like Oak Hill, will enjoy playing the golf course and could have an opportunity to win. To try to pick one of them out of there is pretty difficult right now.”

Here are seven players I think could surprise Tiger and company and adapt their game for the win.

Bill Haas — 56/1

AT&T National - Round One

The world No. 24 is having another strong year and recorded his fifth Tour victory in June’s AT&T National. He has had three top 10’s in his last four starts maintaining his good form including a T7 at last week’s Bridgestone Invitational. He’s first in T10 finishes this year with nine and leads the GIR category from 150 to 175 yards.

If he can find his share of fairways, his strong iron play could enable him make a serious threat come Sunday.

Jason Day — 36/1

Jason Day

The Australian and world No. 20 is destined to win a major after a string of impressive performance in major tournaments. Day again went agonizingly close at the both the Masters and U.S. Open this year where he lead the tournament at various stages on the back nine on Sunday.

He’s yet to miss a cut in 2013 showing his amazing consistency. At just 25 years of age, he’s already recorded five top 10’s in majors in his career.

A strong short game and long off the tee, if things can fall his way he’s a great chance.

Matt Kuchar — 36/1

Matt Kuchar

The popular smiling American is having his best season to date recording two victories including seven top 10’s and 18 for 18 cuts made.

Kuchar finished T8, T28 and T15 at the first three majors of the year and continues to churn out solid performances.

An impressive scoring average of 69.59 highlights his consistency as does his scrambling ability (currently 8th) which means he knows how to get up to down.

A win here for his first major victory would not surprise.

Ian Poulter — 56/1

Ian Poulter

The colorful Englishmen is having a decent season despite his limited appearances on the PGA Tour.

Poulter missed the cut at April’s Masters but bounced back to finish T21 at the U.S. Open and an impressive T3 at the British Open after finishing with a sterling 67. He’s recorded four top 10’s in majors the last two years (including T3 here last year) showing Poulter is capable of measuring up to the best in the world.

With England enjoying a golden run in major sporting events in 2013, Poulter could add to the tally with his first major victory.

Richard Sterne — 111/1

Richard Sterne

The South African and world No. 34 is a bit of an unknown to many but has proved he can play well on the big stage. He won his country’s Joburg Open this year with a score of 27-under par winning by a massive 7 strokes from former Masters winner and countryman Charles Schwartzel.

After struggling with back injuries through much of 2010 and 2011, he seems to have regained his form and fitness.

Leading up to the PGA Championship he finished a very credible T9 with rounds of 70, 68, 70 and 68 at the difficult Bridgestone Invitational last week in a major strength field.

Martin Kaymer — 56/1

Martin Kaymer

The former world No. 1 has disappeared off the world stage since his win at the PGA in 2010. The current world No. 35 is slowly finding form again which saw him reach golfs pinnacle.

He’s made the cut in all three majors this year and finished strongly at the last lead up tournament at the Bridgestone Invitational finishing off with rounds of 67, 69 and 66 in difficult conditions.

Perhaps a second major is coming for the German.

Bill Horschel — 111/1

Billy Horschel

Horschel is one of the hottest young players on the PGA Tour in 2013 with a string of good performances highlighted by his win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. His red-hot form through March and April saw him record an amazing four consecutive top-10 finishes culminating in his maiden victory.

Proving he can match it on the big stage he finished an impressive T4 at the U.S. Open in June.

His strength is his ability to make birdies which sees him first in birdies made in 2013.

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Troy Vayanos was born and still resides in Brisbane, Australia. He has been a passionate golfer for more than 25 years and loves learning and increasing his knowledge of the golf swing. He lives and breathes golf from his local golf course to the professional tours around the world. His website Hitting It Solid delivers the latest golf instruction that helps you break 100 and beyond. You’ll also learn the 7 critical steps you must know to play better golf today.

7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. Troy Vayanos

    Aug 8, 2013 at 12:14 am

    I agree Fred, it’s a very wide open tournament even though the odds don’t necessarily reflect this.

    Realistically there are several players who on their day are capable of winning this tournament.

    Regards

  2. Troy Vayanos

    Aug 7, 2013 at 5:05 pm

    Yes Barry Paul Casey has had a bid of resurgence in recent times winning the Irish Open in June and is great value at that price. If he finds some of the old form that had him really high in the world rankings he’d be a definite chance.

    Regards

  3. Barry

    Aug 7, 2013 at 4:05 pm

    I backed Paul Casey at 125-1 and Marcel Siem at 225-1 for the big wager of 1 euro each!-I might get a thrill early in the first round!

  4. Troy Vayanos

    Aug 7, 2013 at 2:55 pm

    Hi Arthur,

    Based on the odds to win the tournament is how they were considered outsiders. At 36/1 in any sort of betting event is usually a long shot to win.

    Cheers

  5. Fred

    Aug 7, 2013 at 2:31 pm

    It’s interesting how the writers are saying that Tiger is up against some tough competition this week. Aren’t these pretty much the same guys he handled last week? And all this talk about Tiger vs. Phil… considering Phil’s victory at the Open, it should have been that way last week – but Phil was barely in contention. I’m not suggesting Tiger will win (it is a major, after all), but the writer’s should try and be a bit more realistic when writing these stories. We could all be in for a big surprise this week.

    • Mike

      Aug 8, 2013 at 7:30 am

      Tiger was also “handled” by a few, and the rules, too… Let face is, tiger has become Greg Norman….except Norman actually won a major and tiger is oh-fer majors since yang “handled” him at the PGA oh so many years ago…

  6. Arthur J

    Aug 7, 2013 at 10:47 am

    Not sure how Kaymer was an outsider when he won his PGA championship? Or how you can consider either Jason Day or Matt Kuchar to be outsiders this time?

    Seems American writers consider any win outside of Phil/Tiger/Rory to be a ‘shock’.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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