Back in May, I felt that Tiger Woods was Statistically Primed For the U.S. Open.

Tiger had just come off his fourth victory for the year, and was using a very conservative tee shot strategy — hitting a lot of 3 woods and 5 woods off tees where most of his competitors were hitting driver.

All of the research I have conducted actually states that a conservative tee shot strategy is usually a bad idea, and that leaving the driver in the bag should be a golfer’s very last option, not his first or second option. But, my reasoning was that since Merion would force a lot of lay-up shots off the tee and that nobody was better at laying up off the tee than Tiger, he was in prime position to win his fourth U.S. Open.

However, there was something that made me a little uncomfortable about forecasting Tiger’s success for the U.S. Open. For most of the first half of the season he was by far and away the best putter on the PGA Tour from outside 15 feet. And all the research I have done has shown that Tour players will move toward the means on putts from outside 15 feet regardless of their putting skill level. I feel that this important information for amateurs to understand in order to not only putt better, but to better plan their shots.

The gold standard for putting metrics is Strokes Gained – Putting. The concept is simple: It calculates the distance of the putt and what the average number of putts for the field have been from that distance. Then it takes the number of putts the golfer makes and subtracts it from the field average.

For example, if a golfer two-putts from 40 feet and the field average from 40 feet for the tournament is at 2.183 strokes, then the golfer gained 0.183 strokes on the field from that particular distance of putt. If the golfer three-putts, then they lost -0.817 strokes to the field on that putt.

What I found was that the distance range of putts that correlates most strongly to Strokes Gained — Putting are putts from 3 to 15 feet. Here is the list of the current top-15 golfers in Strokes Gained — Putting and how they rank on putts from various distances.

The table shows that not only do these top putters tend to rank much better on putts from 3 to 15 feet than on putts longer than 15 feet, but the standard deviation shows much more variance in the rankings as the putts get longer. Sergio Garcia is ranked No. 1 in putts from more than 25 feet and in Strokes — Gained Putting. However, this is merely an anomaly and goes to show how there is little rhyme or reason as to what golfers will make putts from longer than 15 feet.

Here’s a line chart that hopefully illustrates the point a little better.

I call the percentage of putts made from longer than 15 feet a “volatile metric.” What I mean is that a player may rank high in putts made from greater than 15 feet one season, and then rank low on putts made from greater than 15 feet the very next season. It does not matter if the golfer is generally a “great putter” or a “bad putter.”

Here’s a few examples using typically “great putters” (Baddeley, Donald and Snedeker) versus typically “bad putters” (Weekley, Garrigus and Stadler) on putts from longer than 15 feet over the years.

The table further demonstrates the volatility on making putts from longer than 15 feet. Luke Donald has been the greatest putter on Tour during the past five years, and he has had some years where he has made a high percentage of putts from longer than 15 feet and other years where he has struggled from this distance. Conversely, Boo Weekley has been one of the worst putters on Tour in the past five years and he has had some years where he has made a lot of long putts and in other years he has struggled from longer distances.

The data shows that making putts from outside 15 feet has more to do with luck, while making putts from inside 15 has more to do with skill. Thus, for golfers looking to learn from this, they should spend more of their time practicing putts from 3 to 15 feet than putts longer than 15 feet.

However, if I want to go into more finite detail, the strongest correlation of putts made from a one-foot distance range and putts gained is putts from 3 to 4 feet. This is particularly telling when we look at the rankings of the top and bottom-15 players in Strokes Gained — Putting and their rankings in putts from 3 and 4 feet.

I believe that the reason for the strong correlation on these 3- to 4-foot putts and Strokes Gained — Putting is because a putt from 3 to 4 feet is very makeable, but just difficult enough where golfers can easily miss. I believe that these putts require the basic fundamentals to good putting in the golfer’s ability to aim properly, the centeredness of contact and having the right amount of touch and speed on the putt. I also feel it requires a sharp eye for green reading.

While most putts from 3 to 4 feet have little or no break to them, the golfer has to correctly identify that small break when it is there. And again, we should note that Sergio (and Tiger) are mere anomalies as the average ranking for these top-15 putters from 3 to 4 feet is typically in the top-50.

Thus, I recommend golfers not only focus their practice toward putts from inside 15 feet, but to spend a little extra time on those 3 to 4 footers in order to get the fundamentals of putting.

But, that’s not all that the data shows. Another key metric is that current average on Tour is for a golfer to make one birdie putt from outside 15 feet for every 36.2 holes of golf he plays. In essence, it will take a little over two rounds before the average Tour player will make a birdie putt longer than 15 feet.

Thus, if golfers want to make more birdies, they need to strive to get more birdie putts inside 15 feet rather than hope that they can make a few long putts outside of 15 feet. This is what happens in EVERY super-low round on Tour. The player simply accumulates a lot of birdie opportunities. For instance, Tiger’s 61 at Firestone included nine birdie opportunities from inside 15 feet in which Tiger converted eight of them.

For golfers looking to shoot better scores by improving their putting, focus on making more putts from inside 15 feet. And if you’re looking to make substantial improvements to your score, accumulate more birdie opportunities inside 15 feet. For the higher handicappers, I suggest continuing to work on putting from inside 15 feet and to try to accumulate more par opportunities from inside 15 feet.