News
The state of the game
By Sean Foster-Nolan
GolfWRX Contributor
USA Today pointed out in a recent article that in the past five years the number of golfers in the United States has declined by 13 percent. Last year, the number of rounds of golf played nationwide dropped by 3.5 percent. In part, the reason for these numbers has to do with time and money. While I would agree I would add another, and perhaps larger contributing factor: frustration.
As we all know golf is not an easy game. Frank Thomas, former research director of the USGA said that over the past 20 years, despite all the advances in technology, the average male hits his drive approximately 200 yards, the average score hovers near 100, and for those that keep handicaps the average remains around 16.
Despite this course architects continue to build longer and more difficult golf courses. And, men being men, play tees that are further and further back. So, if the average male hits his tee shot 200 yards and he’s playing a 423 yard par four what are the chances of his getting to the green in regulation? If a par three is 190 yards, and surrounded by bunkers, what are his chances of hitting the green at all? Add to that narrow fairways littered with hazards … what are his chances of even getting the ball in play? How many greens in regulation will he hit if he is hitting a fairway wood to virtually every par four, and on many par threes?
“Move up!”, you say. Easier said then done when dealing with the fragile male ego. According to the USGA’s Tee it Forward initiative if a golfer’s average tee shot is 200 yards than he should be playing from 5,200 to 5,400 yards. The problem is not many golfers will play from that yardage, not to mention there aren’t many tee boxes with that yardage. Okay, let’s say the middle tees are approximately 6,200 yards. That would mean that the golfer would need to hit his tee shot an average of 250 yards. Not many golfers can hit it that far. Where does that leave our fellow who is 200 yards off the tee? Very frustrated.
Last summer I went to the local muni and was paired with a three some. We were all roughly in our mid-50s.
“What tee box are you playing from?” one gentleman asks me.
“The middle tees,” I respond.
“We always play from the back tees,” says another, in a rather self-important voice.
We proceed to hit our tee shots. On our approaches my intrepid three some is hitting fairway woods or hybrids into the green while I’m hitting an 8-iron. This goes on for the next couple of holes, where none of them have yet to make a par, let alone a bogey. We get to the fourth hole. From the back tees this is a very intimidating tee shot. At a minimum you must hit your tee shot at least 230 yards over a pine tree onto a plateau to have any chance of getting to the green in two. None of my three some has yet to hit a tee shot over 200. If you tug it a little left you are in the trees that slope severely left. If you hit it right, you’re okay, but you have a long shot to a green that you can’t see and if you hit your approach a wee bit left, long, right or short you’re dead. From the middle tees if you hit it 200 yards you’re on the plateau and have a relatively easy shot to the green. If you hit it 230 you’ll knock it past the plateau and it will roll forever down to the front of the green. Needless to say my three some scored a big number on this hole.
By the time we get to the fifth hole I’d heard enough curse words to make my drill instructors from my Marine Corps days blush. This is a monster par three from the back tees. An extremely narrow 210 yard hole flanked by oak trees on both sides coming closer together as they run up to the green. I’m thinking to myself, “What are these guys going to do here?” Two tee shots were lost in the woods and the third was well short. Another big number for all concerned.
As we walk to the sixth tee I’m mentally scratching my head. My three some has been cursing, mumbling, and not having very much fun. I’m one over par, and they have yet to make a bogey. It’s not that they can’t hit the golf ball. They just don’t hit it very far. Why are they killing themselves?
We get up to the tee box and one of the guys asks me,
“Do you mind if I join you on the middle tees?”
“Not at all,” I respond.
The others quickly jump in.
By the time we finish up on No. 18 there is a lot of laughter and comments such as:
“I’ve never reached the 16th in regulation before!”
“That’s my first birdie of the year!”
“That’s my personal best on the back nine!”
“I didn’t lose a ball the rest of the round!”
“I’ll never play the back tees again!”
“I haven’t had so much fun in ages!”
Well, you get the idea.
So, in the vast majority of cases what do we have? We have a golfer playing from a tee box where he has no chance in getting to the majority of par fours in regulation with two very good shots. Has no chance in getting to most of the par threes with a good shot. Must have an outstanding short game just to make a par. Must get very lucky to make a birdie. That really sounds like fun.
Is it any wonder the number of golfers is on the decline? What can be done? A few things. Superintendents can move up the tee boxes, and change the scorecards as well as the slope and rating. Although the USGA has the Tee it Forward initiative golfers will not move up on their own accord. They’ll need a push. New course designs can be more user friendly. Fairways can be wider, greens can be more approachable and courses can be made shorter. There is no reason courses are designed with the single digit in mind when the vast majority of golfers, and those that bring in the vast majority of revenue, are mid to high-handicappers. Perhaps if golfers start reaching greens in regulation, making the occasional birdie, not losing multiple balls a round, they may decide to stick with the game. If so golf will remain a healthy and viable sport, which can only benefit all of us.
Tee in Funward anyone?
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News
Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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944
Feb 21, 2012 at 12:08 am
I’m not sure this topic merits the use of profanity, but I can understand some of the frustration.
The truth of the matter is that public courses are just that- public courses. Everyone has a right to play to them, and to choose which tee box they play from. If pace of play is an issue, then it should start with the offenders policing themselves. If that doesn’t work, then I believe the group behind the offenders and/or the marshals should intervene.
If pace of play is not an issue, then I believe that players should be allowed to use whatever tee box they please. If their scores reflect their choice of tees, then said players should have the common sense to recognize this and modify their choice of tee box, if they choose. If they still like to play from tees that are probably not suited to their skill level, then they will have to continue to accept the poor score that they post. Nobody is forcing them to play from the tips but themselves and if they enjoy playing from that length, then great for them. If they want to move up to improve their score, then great for them again.
I would compare it to a person who is relatively new to weightlifting. Nobody forces them to squat 500 lbs., but if they choose to attempt to do so, they can. They will be the one to have to live with the results. I believe they will quickly find that they will have a more enjoyable experience starting with a lower weight, and working up from there as their strength and skill improve. Regardless, it is still that individuals choice.
In my opinion, the issue is not so much course design as it is each individual golfer’s personal decision on what tees they play from. Perhaps a solution might be a sign before the first tee box that says “Please make an honest assessment of your game before deciding which tees to play.” would be a nice reminder for everyone who plays.
beyondthedimples.wordpress.com/
Feb 19, 2012 at 10:50 am
And lastly, I can’t afford to drive a mercedes, so I don’t.
I am not certified to fly a plane, so I don’t.
If the course is too difficult, don’t play it!
There are so many different courses to pick from, don’t shit on the design. So stupid to point the finger to someone else rather than educating yourself.
Seems simple enough to me!
beyondthedimples.wordpress.com/
Feb 19, 2012 at 10:47 am
The problem is not time or distance or course difficulty or any of that nonsense.
When I was introduced to the game, I had to “prove” myself before heading to the golf course. I had to learn the basics of the golf swing, short game, etc. Kind of like getting your driver’s license. When the golf boom happened and courses and equipment were available on every street corner, those traditions were pushed aside. Learning why there are different tee boxes, pace of play rules, etiquette, etc were all part of the learning process. This took time and the general public did not want to invest the time, and that ultimately will only be to their demise.
In my opinion, there are still way too many un-licensed golfers out there.
Zunes
Feb 18, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Great article. Should be required reading for anyone designing, owning, running, or working at a golf course.
Part of the problem is that everyone working at a golf course is a scratch golfer and doesnt see these problems.
I would disagree that “we” are all the problem as many of us would like to see a fix.
Nor do I think assigning tees by handicap would work as even the front tees are too long for many players.
chip75
Feb 18, 2012 at 11:09 am
I’ve always thought the tees players hit from should be handicapped based, so a higher handicapped player will have to hit from the front while the top flight amateur will be sent way back.
The equipment doesn’t help much either, OEM’s spend millions on trying to get more distance but their innovations of less loft and longer clubs won’t help the average player to hit the ball solidly with a square clubface.
I’m sure if they did tests they’d find the average player would score better with a bag of wedges, a couple of short to mid irons and a putter!
dekker
Feb 18, 2012 at 10:41 am
this is the arch-typical story, which I could tell countless versions of myself, from both sides of the blocks.
Who’s to blame ?
Well actually we all are, starting with the demanding players, to the put-upon course architect, to the ego-driven resort owners ,to the obliging clubmakers ,and the fiscally driven OEM who lead us to the promised land via a new-improved route every year, with the player screaming, “I was robbed”! Hilarious!
The average golfer parallels a deluded stud who finds his conquest is a pro who expects to be paid.