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Prediction: Phil will win at Pinehurst in 2014

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Some might be tempted to call it quits after six runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open.

Sam Snead finished runner-up in four, never once winning the championship. Jack Nicklaus matched Snead with four second-place results; however, he won the event as many times.

Like Snead, Nancy Lopez also came in second-best in her national championship on four occasions, never once winning. While it’s true that these exercises in hollowness pale in comparison to the 19-year streak for futility of soap opera actress Susan Lucci, they are certainly gut-wrenching rewards that do not match the effort an energy dedicated by these golfing superstars to the annual showcase events of the United States Golf Association.

As many bitterly watched on Sunday, the gods of golf found a way to deny Phil Mickelson an inaugural Open championship of his own. Sunday, June 16, Bloomsday to the literary world, Father’s Day to many and 43rd birthday to Mickelson, brought another excruciating runner-up finish in a tournament he was desperate to win, that seemed destined to be his. In his own incomplete words, his finish at Merion was “very heart breaking.”

“This could have been the big [something] a really big turnaround for me on how I look at the U.S. Open and the tournament that I’d like to win, after having so many good opportunities,” Mickelson said after the round.

When a golfer searches for words “could have been the big…” the result could not have been more torturous.

Does it surprise you, then, that I predict that Phil Mickelson will win the 2014 U.S. Open? I write it with extreme confidence, for a number of reasons. If it’s facts you want, I have them. If it’s spiritual connections, I have those as well. My intent is to convince you that Phil’s town is not on Long Island (where he had three runner-up finishes), in Westchester county (one) or even the eponymous eastern Pennsylvania city of Phil-adelphia (one.) Phil’s star will finally shine bright in a small town known as the home of American golf in south-central North Carolina.

In 1999, a soon-to-be-30 and soon-to-be-a-daddy Phil Mickelson, outdueled a young Tiger Woods, only to have Payne Stewart enact the role of Harry Houdini and drain a monster 15-foot par putt on the 72nd hole to avoid a playoff and win the Open outright. In a moment frozen in time (and made all the more poignant and symbolic by Stewart’s untimely death less than six months later), Stewart grabbed Mickelson’s face in his hands and nearly shouted “You’re going to be a father, you’re going to be a father.” That Stewart chose to focus on Phil’s impending role as parent, rather than consolation for a job nearly well done, set in motion a spiritual trajectory that saw Mickelson through the birth of two other children and the personal health battles of his wife, son and mother.

Given that connection to Pinehurst (and ignoring the interim Open there in 2005, when Mickelson finished T33), is there any greater place for Mickelson to close fate’s circle than Pinehurst in 2014? I think not.

Fine, you don’t believe in spiritual connections. Let me suggest, then, that the “new” Pinehurst No. 2 sets up better than any other U.S. Open venue for Phil’s particular golfing phraseology. Since its restoration a year ago by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, Pinehurst No. 2 has returned to its Donald Ross origin of fairway width and manageable, sand-and-pine-straw rough. It is often written of Mickelson that he’d rather be in trouble, with an opportunity to manufacture a shot, than in the middle of the fairway, faced with a straightforward approach. At Pinehurst, he’ll be able to manufacture recovery shots in most situations, which might allow him to use driver with greater confidence.

Once you’re on the greens at Pinehurst No. 2, their contours and movements are for the most part negotiable. It’s the missing of the greens that causes consternation, followed by discomposure and vexation, for many competitors (channeling John Daly’s six–chip, are we?) Well, it’s for those very bumps, flops, spinners and nudges that Phil Mickelson is known. He handles a missed green with aplomb, knowing that he has either hit the recovery shot before or that he relishes the prospect of adding a new weapon to his stockpile.

You won’t need to give credit where it’s due (to me) nor sing of my clairvoyance for ages to come. The site of Phil phinally, sorry, finally hoisting the unnamed U.S. Open champion’s trophy will be reward enough for me and, I suspect, all of golf. And for those of you with scant knowledge of Susan Lucci, after 19 successive yet unsuccessful nominations for Best Actress in a soap opera, she finally won on her 20th attempt…in 1999.

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Ronald Montesano writes for GolfWRX.com from western New York. He dabbles in coaching golf and teaching Spanish, in addition to scribbling columns on all aspects of golf, from apparel to architecture, from equipment to travel. Follow Ronald on Twitter at @buffalogolfer.

10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Tom Allinder

    Jul 10, 2013 at 7:47 am

    Ronald, I agree with you. I think Pinehurst #2 is the best venue for Phil to get his U.S. Open. I was thinking in the months before the U.S. Open at Merion that Phil would have a hard time there; I was wrong. At Pinehurst #2 (I have played the course a few times), the premium is absolutely on play AROUND the greens.

  2. Ronald Montesano

    Jun 20, 2013 at 6:24 pm

    No doubt, Ryan. More guys in the running next year. I think that Phil’s trump card is his magic around the greens.

    Bart, he’ll not be dumping Bones. You are correct about #2 and #3, but there has to be a point at which he has a good putting week at an Open and makes a few less whacky choices.

  3. Bart carter

    Jun 20, 2013 at 4:27 pm

    1, he needs to sack his caddy,2, he has to be the streakiest putter ever, this won’t cut it,3, he continues to make stupid choices, being the best at miracle shots to try and escape the poor drive/approach will not get him home all the time. I also predict he’ll never win a U.S open and certainly not “The Open”.

  4. Ryan Caddell

    Jun 20, 2013 at 8:22 am

    There’s a lot more than pine straw and sand where the rough used to be…. wire grass, sticks, pine cones, weeds. Also, the lack of rough should bring more guys to the table. It will be firm and FAST through the fairways. Good shots will roll in to the natural areas, and unless you get lucky there will be obstacles to deal with. I am excited to see how the pros (men and women) handle the new (old) setup. Growing up in Pinehurst I have seen a lot of great golf tournaments… next year could be the best yet.

  5. Ronald Montesano

    Jun 19, 2013 at 6:39 pm

    Love the feedback. Keep it coming, gang. I’m hopeful that the universal kharma machine decides it’s Phil’s time.

  6. Socorr4

    Jun 19, 2013 at 3:26 pm

    I’ll take that bet!!

    With one more year on his clock and fractured psyche after failing to deliver on his dream this year, I’ll go out on a limb: Mickelson will NEVER win the US Open and probably won’t’even contend in many other majors.

  7. BigBoy

    Jun 19, 2013 at 6:15 am

    Phil da Phillper wont win a US Open……one of them “set up for birdie” courses, yes…..but not a classically designed course.

  8. Ronald Montesano

    Jun 19, 2013 at 6:05 am

    Merion’s greens ate up a lot of golfers last weekend; Phil was hardly alone. I’ll check Rose’s putting stats, but I would doubt he missed as many as Phil or Tiger when they counted. The winner in hindsight is usually the player that converted critical putts form a variety of makeable distances.

  9. Joe Golfer

    Jun 19, 2013 at 2:16 am

    That’s a good assessment of Phil’s game.
    I think he’s really going to be gunning for the win next year.
    Not that he wasn’t super serious about it this year.
    He probably will play more practice rounds at the course next year, weather permitting.
    I liked that SuperStroke grip he used on his putter. Those greens at up a lot of golfers at Merion. Phil may have missed some putts, but they certainly weren’t gimmes, and he burned the edges of the cup numerous times.
    Even at his current age, he’s still one of the top guns on tour, so I think his chances will be as good as anyone’s next year.
    And this article makes it sound like the course suits his game.
    After all his second place finishes at the US Open, I think I’ll be rooting for him next year.
    I was sort of hoping he’d tie Justin Rose on the 18th at Merion, though it would have been really tough to do.
    I really wasn’t rooting for either guy though, as both seemed worthy of the championship. That 18 hole playoff would have been must-see tv.

  10. kyle

    Jun 18, 2013 at 11:43 pm

    Ya if he is gonna win he will have to have a better putter. His putting this last week was not good for considering how many birdie putts he had. He really did not convert well. I saw him make a par save from maybe 8ft. Other than that he was ice cold from 15 ft and in.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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