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Distance for dinner: Have OEM distance claims gone too far?

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Bigger, faster, stronger….longer. That might as well be our adopted cultural motto. This doesn’t just apply to sports, mind you. People have always been very quick to pull out the measuring tape to compete with others in most ways, shapes and forms.

The measure of a person always seems to be measurable, doesn’t it? Or at the very least, more about the catchy sizzle then the substantive steak. This isn’t even a very recent phenomena. Our desire to reduce ourselves to this dates back to our origins. Not that we need to go back that far, but one certainly doesn’t need to think hard to come up with a few examples.

Baseball fans might remember Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux telling us that “chicks dig the long ball” in a famous 1990s commercial that spoofed on the popularity of the home-run-hitting Mark McGuire, as oppose to their brand of crafty pitching. How about the Cadillac CTS-V commercials in 2010 detailing the exact times its car was able to circle the famous Nurburgring circuit in Germany in order to call it the world’s fastest production sedan? To this day, I wonder how many CTS-V owners drive their car in such a manner, or if it would have mattered if their car had come up a few seconds short of a BMW M5 in the commercial. Would they still have bought it?

Want to go back further? How about the railroad and mining tycoons of the Guilded Age, trying to outdo each other by building the world’s biggest houses. Or before that, European and American naturalists and archeologists arguing over which side of the pond was more manly by comparing how big the respective fossils they found were (yes this actually happened, and actually involved Thomas Jefferson). Golfers want to hit the ball further then their friends. They just do. Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) know this, and for the past few years, they have been selling clubs to us has been like shooting fish in a barrel.

But the questions we want to ask, or should be asking ourselves is: Why do we believe we are going to hit the ball longer? And are distances really increasing to back up OEMs claims and promises?

Quiros Bellagio

First, why do we believe the claims? Well, we believe because we want to believe, and because what we see on TV can be a bit confusing. With a drive, the average golfer hits the ball roughly a bit longer than the length of two football fields. If we are to focus more closely on males between the ages of 18 to 49, which for many markets is the target consumer, I’m going to guess that would go up a little bit. I don’t have exact facts to back this up but I’d certainly think 220 yards is reasonable to guess.

If you were to ask the average golfer from that bracket, he would probably tell you that pros hit the ball 300 yards regularly, and based on that they’d probably think he is way behind their potential for how far they can hit. Naturally, he’d be wrong. Pros don’t hit the ball 300 yards regularly, in fact my colleague just printed that the average PGA pros carry distance carry the ball roughly 269 yards. Think about that for a second. Joe Couch-Potato hits the ball within 82 percent of the average pro. Ummm, isn’t that pretty good?

If I can humor you for a second with tales from my youth, I could tell you that I was a fairly athletic teenager. I ran track for my high school team, and was a decent junior baseball player. The fastest I ever threw a baseball when clocked was 73 mph, and the fastest I ever ran the 100-meter dash was in (if I remember correctly) 12 seconds. Neither is that terrible. I’d venture a guess that most people couldn’t top either, and both those marks are about the same percentage off the average pro as your average drive compared to a golfing pro. What would you tell your friend if he told you he was going to buy new shoes so he could get closer to the 10-second 100-meter dash? You’d probably tell him he’s crazy.

Further diluting things is total distance, which is completely irrelevant. The courses amateurs play are completely different then the ones pros play, and total distance is all but meaningless. Every 340-yard drive you see is suspect, because the fairways the pros play are similar to the greens the average golfer plays. Again, if I can tell you tales of my own exploits, my carry distance with driver is very similar to the average pro, roughly 265 yards. I can tell you that I have had days where I’ve averaged more than 300 yards off the tee when playing hard and fast courses, and days where I’ve hit balls that have stuck in the ground. Carry distance is all that matters really. Next time you play your local municipal, imagine how much further you’d hit it if the fairways were as hard as the greens. Pros can get 50-plus yards of roll, remember that.

Iron shots aren’t much more reliable, because not a tournament goes by where the casual fan will see a pro line up a shot and hear the announcer say, “Here’s Kuchar, hitting 7-iron from 195,” and naturally the thought process is that pros absolutely murder their irons. This again is a bit of a misnomer, as all announcers really have to go by is the word of the players caddy, or an educated guess. And it’s not like caddies are always going to tell the truth; why not make his pro seem superhuman?

Another important data point is the release the pros get on greens, so be sure to pay attention to where the ball lands. It’s not uncommon for a pro to hit 5-iron to a 225 yard par 3. Notice that a lot of times, the ball lands on the front of the green rolls to the back. The pro might be carrying it 200 yards as oppose to 225. Still long, but not ridiculous. Chances are that you hit the ball further comparatively then you believe you do, and new clubs might not really change that.

The second question is: Are people really hitting it longer then they did? OEMs definitely want you to think so. It would be easy to pick on TaylorMade or Callaway, who seem to be at the forefront of the cold war of distance, and I will try to minimize the finger pointing. But both are engaged in campaigns of convincing players there are several yards to be found. TaylorMade in 2012 had its much publicized (and successful) “17” campaign, based on the premise that players would gain 17 yards by switching to its Rocketballz 3-wood. TaylorMade even had its players wear soccer-style jerseys on the course during last year’s WGC event at Doral promoting this, truly a first in golf marketing (note: the campaign was nixed mid round by the PGA Tour).

Callaway has responded by signing every big hitter this side of Art Sellinger to its staff, and airing ads where Alvaro Quiros smacks balls over the Bellagio fountains in Las Vegas. I can only imagine what they have in store for uber-driver Jamie Sadlowski! But the question really is, despite the theatrics, are players really hitting it further?

Bubba Watson

Distance numbers for amateurs are tough to come by. But not so much on the PGA Tour, where one would think technology would be just as beneficial. In 2012, Bubba Watson led the Tour in driving distance at 315 yards, Charlie Beljan was second at 311. In 2010, Robert Garrigus led the tour at 315 yards, and Watson was second at 309. In. 2008 Watson led the tour at 315 yards. Garrigus was second at 311. What about 2006? The one and only Watson led at 319 yards and J.B. Holmes was second at 318. Wait? Were people longer in 2006? Or what about in 2004, when Hank Kuehne set the still standing record of 321 yards and John Daly was second at 314 yards, a number that would have still ranked second in 2012?

This is before adjustable-lofted drivers, full acceptance of 460cc heads, speed slots and most other features you see listed as performance attributes of 2013 drivers. With all the supposed advancements, why aren’t we seeing evidence on the tour? Sure, more people are hitting it further these days and averaging 300 yards, but you could just as easily argue that is a case of simple Darwinism than equipment, as a result of the “Tiger Proofing” of courses (think about it, if all food in the world was on 10-foot shelves, chances are humans would have a higher vertical leap 100 years from now right?). But the longest guys don’t seem to be driving it further. To take it even a step further, in Jack Nicklaus’ “Golf my Way,” he says his driving distance was “250 and up.” This was with a sub-43-inch steel-shafted driver, wound balls and wooden heads.

How far would Nicklaus carry the ball with a 45-inch graphite-shaft, a modern titanium driver head and a Pro V1X? Probably Watson long, and these are all advancements that are a decade old right now. Fact is, Nicklaus could’ve probably changed nothing other than his golf ball and he would’ve carried as far as the average pro does today, or at least very close. So how far have we really come?

Irons are another fun discussion. I recently bought a set of refurbished Ping Eye2 irons and plan on using them in the 2013 season. The pitching wedge is 50.5 degrees. Read that again! My new pitching wedge is almost two-degrees weaker than my  Mizuno JPX-800  gap wedge! When I started playing golf roughly eight years ago, most pitching wedges were around 46 to 47 degrees, and now in 2013, it is common for them to be 44 to 45 degrees. The loft of my first ever 7-iron (a Tommy Armour 845 Silver Scot) was 36 degrees, as compared to my last 7-iron, a Mizuno JPX-800 which was 32 degrees. That’s over a 10 percent difference in lofts! Taking that a step further: I could hit my last 7-iron 165 yards and my original 7-iron 150 yards with the exact same swing!

These are important things to remember when considering an iron purchase. Next time you hit clubs in the store further than your original set, make sure to check the specs. To come back to Jack Nicklaus’ yardages, in “Golf my Way,” he claimed he hit his 7-iron 140 to 155 yards, which doesn’t sound like a lot. But remember his 7-iron was really a modern 8-iron at least, and at worst relatively close to a 9-iron! Suddenly his yardages with a wound ball don’t seem so bad! So again, how far have we come with technology? Or really, is it more a clever way of selling?

Another random thing I remember from my youth was a Fox Network special where a masked magician revealed many of magic’s secrets. At the relatively anticlimactic end, he said that he did it not to shame anyone, or make himself famous. He did it to push other magicians to come up with new material, to force them to come up with new tricks. I wish we as consumers would force that upon golf manufacturers. I wish all golf publications and reviewers would mention things like loft and shaft length in their reviews, but many do not currently do that.

Golfers everywhere have spent $799 for new irons under pretenses they might not understand, and ended up with a 4-GW set that performs the exact same as their previous 3-PW set. It’s time we stopped whipping out the measuring stick and forced golf manufacturers to come up with something that really benefits us. This will not happen until golfers out there truly understand what is being sold to them and how flawed their basis of comparison is. Until then, OEMs will continue to feed us distance promises that don’t quite jive. I hope, in my most ambitious sense of optimism, that this can start us along that path.

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Jeff Singer was born and still resides in Montreal, Canada. Though it is a passion for him today, he wasn't a golfer until fairly recently in life. In his younger years Jeff played collegiate basketball and football and grew up hoping to play the latter professionally. Upon joining the workforce, Jeff picked up golf and currently plays at a private course in the Montreal area while working in marketing. He has been a member of GolfWRX since 2008

28 Comments

28 Comments

  1. Paul

    Feb 18, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    With so many options out there, it takes way more testing to find equipment that works with one’s own swing dynamics. One thing that is certain, is that for those who ignore the short game (Wedges & Putter)… And ignore the fact that this is where realistic gains can be made in keeping the total score down to as low as possible… Those same individuals will also ignore how important properly spaced wedge lofts are – in contributing to keeping the score down. 150 yards and in, is where the game is won and lost.

  2. Eric

    Feb 4, 2013 at 4:17 pm

    I enjoyed reading the article and wish that the general public would understand the same things about club manufacturers and how they market.

    However, I would interested to know whether equipment today helps a player who has lower swing speeds distance. Clubs with more advanced technology and better materials that allow for low centers of gravity, high MOI, etc, are really beneficial to bad players. Like you said there are not really statistics for the average amateur or bad players, but I wonder what effect, if any, these newer clubs have for these players.

    Along the same lines, don’t you think today’s iron technology allows the clubs to have lower lofts and go farther? A 7 iron today can have 3 degrees less loft than a 7 irons from 10 years, but still have the same ball flight characteristics (height, spin, etc.) and also go farther. Though I agree that it is misleading when a company says that their 7 iron will go farther than yours, when their 7 iron is more like your 6, as long it has the ball flight that you want out of a 7 iron, I am fine with that.

  3. lbj273

    Feb 2, 2013 at 3:44 am

    the average distances is just that, an average. it fails to take into account anytime something less than a driver is hit off the tee, which skews the distance averages

    • Jeff Singer

      Feb 3, 2013 at 9:05 pm

      yes, but that was also the case in 2004, which is the earliest averages that are referenced in the article.

      • Charlie

        Feb 6, 2013 at 4:58 pm

        Could you not argue that, because of advances in overall distance since 2004, players are able to hit driver less often but still hit it as far?

  4. trapp120

    Feb 1, 2013 at 8:39 pm

    I really liked the article. I do have one problem with it…no mention of shafts! A lot of progress has been made in this area and we all know the right shaft can transform even the crappiest iron or driver head into the right tool for you, so this should really be addressed when blasting all of the marketing.

    I agree that it’s gone a little overboard, but these companies have to sell every year to meet rev goals. There’s no way they can do that by saying “The New TMAG R1…just as good as last year!”.

    Instead of ripping the marketing distance claims, maybe you should rail against the practice of “perceived obscurity” that they’re all very guilty of pushing in hopes of creating a product lifecycle closer to 12 months instead of 3+ years.

  5. GMatt

    Feb 1, 2013 at 12:11 pm

    It’s a case of the sheep being led to the slaughter or in buzz word terms “marketing”
    The majority of folks on here may not believe in the hype but I’d bet you a $100 bill, they’ve inquired about it at their local golf shop. and the gentlman who stated most golfers would improve from lessons, you make absolutely too much sense to be on this forum

  6. moses

    Feb 1, 2013 at 12:45 am

    I still havn’t found a modern driver that was as long as my old 300cc Titleist 983E. Look at the driving distance averages on PGATOUR.COM. Average distances of the purest ball strikers on earth really hasn’t changed in the last 7-8 years. Everything is maxed out. Want more distance? Go get properly fit for launch angle and spin rates.

    • S

      Feb 2, 2013 at 12:30 pm

      None of what you said means anything at all to anyone.
      When you had that 983E, you were younger, probably stronger. Played more.
      Your 983E may have been an anomaly club, which could have been at, or over, the average COR of an average consumer club (that sounds like a fluke, but it happens), with a very good shaft, also at an excellent spec. Unless you had the club tested we will never know.
      Did you actually tally up your driving stats of those days with the 983E and compare it to the one you’re using now? What kind of courses did you play on, with what kind of weather conditions? How hard or soft were the courses and how much wind was there?
      You say last 7 to 8 years – do you have the data to back that up? I bet you’d be surprised.

  7. Golflaw

    Jan 31, 2013 at 10:10 pm

    As someone who has had to defend companies in court against false advertising claims, I find it strange that these arge, publicly traded golf equipment companies would knowingly be making claims without verifiable claims support.

    • S

      Feb 2, 2013 at 12:25 pm

      They only need ONE player to get that result ONE TIME from a test hit on a machine.

  8. mark

    Jan 31, 2013 at 6:36 pm

    From 35 years of experience my best scores all come when 1 club works better than usual. My trusty 17 year old Anser Scotsdale. The worst modern trend is 46 and longer driver shafts. The Pro’s dont use them so why should we? I recall a quote from Davis Love where he said he knew in 3 swings whether or not a club would work for him….

  9. Roger

    Jan 31, 2013 at 1:06 pm

    My goal has been to land in regulation on the 7th at my course and par it, the number 1 stroke hole…did it yesterday from 185m
    with a 16.5 Tee i love….
    Just upgraded to newer 588 wedges,love them…
    Next step is a Driver that helps me hit 12 fairways per round…..250 yards total distance, in the fairway will make me happy. Set realistic expectations of your bag, stay fit and flexible, and practice putts,chipnruns and pitch shots a lot more!!! Great article !

  10. Bill Gabbert

    Jan 31, 2013 at 12:45 pm

    I used to be the same way, beleiving all the stuff manufactures were putting on TV. Then one day I took my bag full of TM products to the course along with a bag of clubs I played 2 years ago. Played 2 rounds, one with each set, and I actually played better with my old set. Bottom line is if you have something that works and your happy with it, leave it alone. Like someone said early here take some lessons, and make some training aids like Michael breed does on the Golf Fix and practice, you will be amazed. Good article Jeff. love this site.

  11. S

    Jan 31, 2013 at 2:25 am

    Blah blah blah blah blah…… that’s what all that is, above!

    You know what?

    Bigger, faster, stronger….longer. = AMERICA.

    It’s our culture. PERIOD. Nuff said.

    • Jeff Singer

      Jan 31, 2013 at 6:45 pm

      my original article was just “bigger, faster, stronger…longer. Nuff said”. But my editor rejected it and asked for like 1800 more words

      • S

        Feb 2, 2013 at 12:22 pm

        Hahahahaha! That’s awesome.

        The other part of what I was going to say, was:

        AMERICA = we’re gullible and love our commercials telling us beautiful lies. We love it.

  12. ABgolfer2

    Jan 31, 2013 at 12:37 am

    269 +50=319

    Sounds like 300+ on tour IS a regular thing.

  13. Jesse

    Jan 30, 2013 at 9:45 pm

    “First, why do we believe the claims? Well, we believe because we want to believe, and because what we see on TV can be a bit confusing.” – Distance for dinner: Have OEM distance claims gone too far? by Jeff Singer

    Secondly – Many people are stupid enough to believe it!

  14. Troy Vayanos

    Jan 30, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    It makes you wonder what the golf club manufacturers are selling us?

    Are they really telling us the truth about distances and so forth?

    I think a lot of time it is up to the individual to test new clubs out for themselves and get a better understanding of their own distances and ball flights.

    Better to do this than listen to a slick salesman telling you that a new driver is going to instantly get you another 20 yards off the tee.

    Cheers

  15. CPP

    Jan 30, 2013 at 11:41 am

    cool story bro. 🙂

  16. John

    Jan 30, 2013 at 10:38 am

    Jeff, another great article. Exposing marketing truths is always a risky proposition, and most amateurs don’t want to hear it. It’s a lot more fun to buy new clubs than to take a few lessons. My personal favourite is the strengthening of lofts, and lengthening of shafts. Today’s 4 iron is NOT a 4 iron.

  17. Tim

    Jan 30, 2013 at 7:55 am

    great article exposing fallacy of distance gains, especially pointing out the course set up for Most PGA tour events, I am reminded of the pictures of the 2006 open at Hoylake where the fairways were almost burnt, and tiger was hitting his 2 iron over 260 off the tee. Move to Hawaii this year into the wind Dustin Johnson was barely hitting driver 200 yards.

  18. Chris

    Jan 30, 2013 at 3:47 am

    Great article. Here in the UK I just read that Mr King CEO of Taylormade wants to chuck away all the USGA/R&A equipment rules to make the game more enjoyable ( Comments apparently originating at the 2013 show) He wantsthe manufacturers to call time on the USGA.

    This of course has absolutley nothing to do with all the Marketing
    B******t his company puts out about equipment performance gains that frankly never materialise unless of course you count hitting a 7 iron
    further than your 6 iron ( Of course we are talking about the number on the club here not the actual loft or length of the club). Further a test in the UK showed that apart from cosmetics the Rocketbladze irons were no better than the Rocket balls irons To sum up this type of marketing you could miss out the rocket.

    Once some one is customfitted ( the best equipment for their current swing and club head speed) the only wayI’ve seen to gain distance is by improving club path ball stricking and clubhead speed.

  19. Jeff

    Jan 29, 2013 at 11:31 pm

    Great article, I don’t plan on upgrading my clubs until they either fail or the grooves wear out. Most golfers would improve more with lessons over new equipment.

    • mark

      Jan 31, 2013 at 6:31 pm

      Damn you’ve let the secret out. Bad swing with good clubs equals bad shot!!

  20. Adrian Apodaca

    Jan 29, 2013 at 8:51 pm

    Jesus Christ! Mark McGwire and The Gilded Age.

    • Jeff Singer

      Jan 29, 2013 at 9:38 pm

      I’ve been really trying to work the gilded age into my artices. Finally an opportunity presented itself…LOL

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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