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The Rule of 24: How to shoot low scores like a tour pro without changing anything in your game

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I play a lot of golf, mostly at municipal courses, generally with average golfers who suffer from the current epidemic of LOFT (Lack of F***ng Talent). A couple of months ago, watching a pair older guys ride the struggle bus, I thought “someone’s gotta make this better.” When one of my regular playing partners called to tell me had quit, that he was done with the game, that he had other ways to torture himself, I set out to find a solution for him and everyone else who ain’t never gonna play on tour.

Unlocking a solution wasn’t easy. I thought about the question for months and months getting nowhere. And then one day I asked myself a simple question: How far does the average PGA Tour pro hit the ball? The number 300 immediately popped into my head. Next, I asked myself, how long is the average PGA tour course? 7,200 yards popped into my head. Then, I started doing some simple math in my head and stumbled on a simple key: 7,200 divides by 300 into a nice, neat number: 24. The average PGA Tour course is roughly 24 times as long as the average tour player drives the ball.

Could 24 times your driving distance be a basic anchor for how long of a course people should play? Could 24 be some sort of a key to unlocking the game?

Walking on the golf course the other day, I wondered what the rule of 24 would mean for my playing companions. First, there was Steve. He is a mid-40s investment banker who says he hits the ball 210 off the tee but really hits it about 180. He plays a course that is 6,200 yards short. His ratio? 34.4. Yikes. Then there is Patricia, his wife. She hit it about 130 and plays from 5,600—a ratio of 43! Okay folks, Dustin Johnson’s ratio is below 24, Steve’s is 34 and Patricia’s is 43. Who do you think is having more fun playing golf? No wonder the average golfer struggles, I thought, they are playing courses almost 2x the proportional length of a PGA Tour player’s course with 50 percent less power and accuracy. That ain’t nothing but crazy.

Based on that small piece of research, I decided to take the question a step further by asking a couple of more questions: How many greens in regulation does the average PGA Tour player hit vs the average 20 handicap male? The answer is approximately 12 for the PGA Tour player and one for the 20 handicaps. But why? My instincts suggested distance. I called a couple of stats people and asked a question: At what distance does the average 20 handicap man and 20 handicap women hit the green approximately 50% of the time? No one knew. So, I decided to do some really basic data collection to see what I would find. A week later and several 1,000 balls hit on the range by anyone and everyone I could round up later and measured on my launch monitor, the data suggested the distance of the 20 handicap men is approximately 110 yards and for the women, it’s 60 yards.

So how many times would a guy who hits it 180 have 110 yards on an average 6,200 golf course? Basically never. Pretty much same with the ladies hitting it from 5,600. No wonder the average 20 handicapper hits one green per round (if they are lucky)!

Armed with the data, I decided to test it with my favorite golfer—my mom. On a normal drive, my mom hits it about 135 yards. She plays to a 38 handicap. Based on my math, she should be playing a course that is about 2,430 yards. From that distance, she should hit 14 drives approximately 1,890 yards, leaving approximately 30 yards to each green on an 18 hole course.

With this math in mind, I created a 9-hole course and took her to play. The result? She hit 7 greens in regulation, had 2 birdies and 2 bogeys and shot even par. Did she have fun? Did she feel good. How did you feel the last time you shot even par? Exactly…

Since that day with my mom, I have been testing my method with others. Yesterday, I got paired with a lovely older gentleman named Michael. Michael is in his late 60s, is a lifetime golfer with a lovely swing and keenness for the game that was evident from the moment I met him.

Unfortunately, through the first 6 holes, from the senior tees, Michael failed to make anything better than double bogey and was very frustrated; his two longest shots were nowhere close to the green. On 7, I told him about the rule of 24 and asked if he would like to try it out? He agreed. I did the math. I walked him to 203 yards from the green. He hit an average driver and had about 85 yards. He pulled his 7 iron and hit a nice shot that hopped twice and ended about 18 feet from the pin. I gave him a high five and said “good par!”

“Par?” Michael asked, “Really, Brendan, I’m knocking that putt in!” Which he did. His first birdie in two years. Pretty cool.

Okay, folks, you all like to hit the big club far, but I gotta tell you something, I have yet to find someone who doesn’t prefer shooting par.

At this point, some of my math-inclined readers might be upset because they have figured out that based on my math, someone who flies it 240 would play 5,760. Immediately this might raise some eyebrows; that’s why there is another step: adding additional yardage to account that some of the holes will be par 5’s. To account for this, based on conditions, here are the additions of yardage

  • Players who drive it up to 100 yards; add up to 250 yards
  • Players who drive it between 101-225; add up to 750 yards
  • Players who drive it more than 225; add up to 1,000 yards

So do your own math or email me, and I will figure out your real average driving distance by 24 for you and tell you how long your average course should be to have the same chance at par (and fun) tour players do.

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Brendan Ryan, an entrepreneur and scientist, is a passionate golfer who loves his local muni. Armed with a keen interest in the game, a large network of friends in the industry, Brendan works to find and produce unique content for GolfWRX.

15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Barry

    Oct 28, 2019 at 10:24 pm

    Loved it, great article. We just need course designers to incorporate additional tees to accommodate the appropriate length of course.

  2. Ian

    Oct 26, 2019 at 7:21 am

    in Germany where I live most courses are longer than 6000m (over 6500 yards) from the mens tees. So nice theorie but no chance ????

  3. Pete

    Oct 24, 2019 at 5:41 pm

    Holy cow, please re-write that first paragraph … I think you showed a LOFT and were riding the struggle bus as an author when tryIng to draw in your audience with that start. Otherwise, very interesting article.

  4. Brandon

    Oct 24, 2019 at 3:07 pm

    I like to cheat at things I’m bad at, too.

    • larrybud

      Oct 24, 2019 at 3:51 pm

      Who is to say the ratio should be linear or that the ratio should use a driver for the baseline?

      According to trackman, the average pga tour player carries a 6 iron 183 yards. If i use a 6 iron ratio, I would be playing a course 700 yards longer than if I use the “rule of 24”. Why is your method any better than mine?

      This simple example proves the ratio should not be linear.

      You can also prove this to yourself by calculating the ratio between driver and, say, 9 iron, for a pro vs your own distances.

      The pro carries his 9 iron 54% of his carry distance on driver. The slower your swing speed, the larger ratio a 9 iron is to your driver.

      BTW, the average carry distance on tour is 275.

      • larrybud

        Oct 24, 2019 at 3:52 pm

        sorry, didn’t mean to reply to you, but to the article.

  5. MarkBlack

    Oct 24, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Great article. Gets me thinking. The problem is determining a driver length average. I know, seems doable enough but I vary between 220 and 310 on the same hole and with the same wind. YES – no bueno. Am a 5 handicap.

    5 iron much more predictable.

    I feel bad for short hitters, such as many ladies. They rarely get the opportunity to have GIR, even with pretty swings. 90% of courses do not have tees for someone who drives it 150.
    For me, distance of the course has less to do with my score than focus and staying on my game plan.

    Thank you for a thought provoking article.

  6. Brad M

    Oct 24, 2019 at 12:38 pm

    I’m always curious about the “average drive” as a basis for this type of advice. Is it avg. drive in the fairway? Avg. drive that’s playable (not needing a punch-out from trees, for example)?

    I typically play 6400-6800 yards. I’m 55 years old and an 10.6 hcap, maybe I’m your target for this article, maybe I’m not. If I’m not, then you might not need to read the rest.

    Here’s my barometer for fun, enjoyable golf. If I hit a decently struck drive in the fairway (for me 260), there are few 4’s and 5’s I can’t reach in regulation (or better) with my next shots. The challenge is that sometimes that’s a 4 iron, sometimes that’s a wedge. And if I miss the fairway, I want par to less likely and to use all my skill/creativity to eke one out. I like to play all my clubs, so this challenge is one of my favorite parts of the game. Will I hit a high percentage? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. But to have it be all driver/wedge would remove a significant part of the fun.

    I play one very easy course, par 71, 6570yds and wide open, very little trouble. My 78’s and 79’s there are not nearly as satisfying as my 83’s and 84’s at more challenging courses, and even some of my 89’s elsewhere are more fun than driver/wedge all day.

    Many of us play for the challenge, and going lower by shortening the course isn’t that fun. When I start holding up golfers behind me because I’m taking too long, I promise I’ll shorten things up. But playing shorter just to shoot more 70’s than 80’s isn’t my idea of having more fun with golf. I do completely agree that many should move up. But there are reasons why some of us don’t.

  7. S

    Oct 24, 2019 at 9:42 am

    This is great stuff. Good research.

  8. B-Dubbs

    Oct 24, 2019 at 6:55 am

    I like it. I’ve heard a similar thing that I like better. Take your 5 iron carry distance and multiply by 36. Carry it 150? Should play from 5400. 195? 7000 is your distance.

    • Brad M

      Oct 24, 2019 at 12:43 pm

      I think this is a better barometer, the distance variability is reduced with 5iron so you’ll have a more accurate number. This actually shows I should be playing longer than my usual 6600-6800, and I can survive at 7000, but at the moment, that’s usually too much of a grind.

  9. paul rooney

    Oct 24, 2019 at 6:09 am

    Its a great insight into driving distance and length of course, it would be interesting to have a formula for SSS or slope! or a personal slope(ability) for example:

    driving distance /2 – handicap = personal slope – slope = score

    just a thought

  10. freowho

    Oct 24, 2019 at 4:16 am

    Longleaf tee system has already done all the work. You might get sued for plagiarism!

  11. Drew

    Oct 24, 2019 at 12:11 am

    I like the rule of 24. But shouldn’t we also account for handicap. My 20+ buddie can crush a drive 300 yards no problem (1 out of 5 tries). But no way should he be playing from the tips.

  12. Bob Jones

    Oct 23, 2019 at 7:24 pm

    I agree wholeheartedly with the rule of 24. My research several years ago produced a number of 25, but that’s close enough.

    What I do now is take the distance of my average (not best) drive, and add on the distance I carry a 7-iron. I play from the tees that give me half the par fours at that combined distance or less.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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