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Opinion & Analysis

Breaking down the top 10 contenders for the Masters (No. 10-6)

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With just a week now to go until the first major of the year kicks off, it’s time to take a closer look at some of the leading contenders for the Masters. Taking course history, current form and the necessary skill sets into account, here are my top-10 power rankings.

10. Bubba Watson ( current odds 33/1)

It has been a bit of a mixed bag for Bubba Watson so far in 2019, with two top-five finishes, a missed cut and a very early exit last week at the WGC-Match Play. But Watson remains a threat at Augusta, as he showed last year on his way to a T5 finish. He was arguably in better form heading down Magnolia Lane 12 months ago, but a T4 finish at the Valspar a couple of weeks ago should hold the left-hander in good stead.

Watson’s work off the tee in 2019 has been excellent, and it’s an area which will no doubt give him a launching pad to get himself into contention next week. The two-time Masters champion sits seconds in next week’s field for strokes gained: off the tee over his last 24 rounds, an area which only Rory McIlroy can boast better numbers. A cause for concern, however, is his iron play. Watson has lost strokes to the field in four of his last five starts for his approach play and stands 91st this season for strokes gained: approaching the green. Considering just how much the course fits Watson’s eye though, don’t be too surprised if he turns those numbers on their head next week.

9. Hideki Matsuyama (33/1)

With five top-20 finishes in his last six starts, and with three of them being top-10 finishes, Hideki Matsuyama heads to Augusta National in confident mood. The Japanese star is still in search of his first major championship, and history suggests that the Masters is as likely a place as any for the world number 26 to make the breakthrough. With four successive top-20 finishes at the Masters, three of which were top-11 finishes, Matsuyama has the game to conquer Augusta.

Over his previous 24 rounds, Matsuyama ranks second in next week’s field for both strokes gained: tee to green and ball striking, and first in strokes gained: approaching the green. His elite long game should ensure that he stays in touch, but a balky putter could prevent Matsuyama from claiming his first major next week. Matsuyama ranks 183rd this season in strokes gained: putting, and finished dead last in this department at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 27-year-old did, however, gain strokes on the greens at TPC Sawgrass which is cause for optimism.

8. Phil Mickelson (50/1)

Another man with excellent course history that you can’t ignore is Phil Mickelson. Lefty has stumbled as of late, missing back-to-back cuts before suffering an early exit at the WGC-Match Play, which isn’t exactly ideal preparation for the colossal test that is Augusta National. However, Mickelson has a win to his name already this year, and when he achieved that victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, it was off a missed cut at the Phoenix Open, which suggests that there is no real need to panic.

In typical Mickelson fashion, the 48-year-old took the positives out of his early exit last week, telling Golf Channel

“I think that’s why I’ve enjoyed this Match Play. If things don’t go well … I get an extra day or two there (Augusta).”

Just like Watson, Mickelson has a love affair with Augusta, winning there three times previously, and though he would need to make history to triumph there again and become the oldest champion in the tournament’s history, Mickelson has shown already this year that he has the game to do it. Despite the hype and hope surrounding his career grand slam chances in June at the US Open, Mickelson’s best chances of major glory remain at Augusta National.

7. Adam Scott (40/1)

In case you missed it on Wednesday, I’m high on Adam Scott at this year’s Masters. The Australian is flying well under the radar, and all areas of his game are in sync as he prepares for his major assault at Augusta. The 38-year-old ranks top-25 in every significant stroke gained category over his previous 12 rounds and looks confident once again with the putter in hand. Scott ranks 17th so far this season for strokes gained: putting, and if he can showcase that form on the greens for four days next week then he will have every chance.

6. Justin Thomas (18/1)

It wasn’t very long ago that people were calling Justin Thomas the best player in the world. Five top-10 finishes from his opening six starts of 2019 did much to back up those claims, but Thomas has begun to cool off over the last few weeks, which is a little worrying. A T30 at the Honda Classic was followed by a T35 finish at the Players, and last week he crashed out of the WGC-Match Play in the group stages. Despite this recent form, I believe that the 25-year-old is poised for his best Masters performance yet.

Thomas has been trending very nicely at Augusta National, with finishes of 39-22-17 in his last three appearances there. There is a steep learning curve at Augusta, and Thomas has now served his apprenticeship. Over his previous 24 rounds, Thomas sits third in strokes gained: total, fifth in ball striking, and crucially at a track which demands exceptional touch, the American ranks second in strokes gained: around the green over the same period. Possessing the ability to get hot and stay hot as well as anyone in the game,  Thomas has the ability to win on any course. More so than the other betting favorites, a hot start could be crucial for the 2017 PGA Champion’s confidence levels considering his recent stuttering form.

 

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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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