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This Comeback Better Be Different, Tiger

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First of all, let me be the first to say that I am a HUGE Tiger Woods fan and want him back in the game; golf is much better off with him around. That being said, I am growing tired of the talk of his latest “comeback” already, and it hasn’t even begun. Will this really be the time he takes it slow and only competes when he’s physically ready? Or will he be 4-over par at the turn in his next outing and withdraw… then say he needs more time to heal and needs more reps, and then disappear for six more months?

Golf needs Tiger, but I’m not so sure Tiger needs golf any longer, nor do I feel that he is as invested in the sport as he was previously. And who could blame him? He’s made tons of cash, won a bunch of Majors, and has endorsements that will keep him relevant for many years to come. However, I think he knows that his quest for Jack’s 18 Majors is over… really over, and I think it has deflated him. And maybe he’s having fun just being at home, being a father, and being a memory.

This brings me back to my first thought; this comeback better be real and it better last. As usual, he’s cleared by the doctors, he’s back to hitting balls and posting videos, and he says he’s getting ready from a health perspective. But does anyone believe him 100 percent? I don’t. In my opinion, we’ll see the same thing as last time and the time before that; one bad tournament round and he’s out. The fact of the matter is that I don’t think he can handle being second best, or third, or 1164th (his current world ranking), to today’s players and I feel that when he comes back and cannot be the “old” Tiger instantly, he won’t be able to handle it mentally and emotionally. Therefore, I feel that if he cannot be patient, and come back this time at 100 percent, I feel the end of Tiger’s career is approaching quicker than most hope.

Also, from a professional perspective, let’s face it, Chris Como hasn’t had enough time to mold Tiger back into Tournament shape. Anyone can hit the ball well on the range — we all know that. Chris is surely doing the best he can with what he has been given, but he can only do so much if his player isn’t committed or healthy. Tiger’s all but lost his edge and he knows it, but can he deal with being just another good Tour player and not the best any longer? And put in the work required at the pace that’s necessary for his body? I don’t think he can.

So my message to Tiger is this: Be honest with yourself. Be honest with your message to your fans, but most of all DO NOT come back until you are ready. Missing a cut or two does not mean the comeback is a “failure” either, as long as you’re 100 percent committed to the game. We are tired of hearing “I’m back,” only to watch you leave again and again. No one will blame you if you say “enough is enough, my body can’t handle it.” In fact, we’d embrace you more if you just told the truth.

But until then, we’ll hope this time is different…

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Tom F. Stickney II, is a specialist in Biomechanics for Golf, Physiology, and 3d Motion Analysis. He has a degree in Exercise and Fitness and has been a Director of Instruction for almost 30 years at resorts and clubs such as- The Four Seasons Punta Mita, BIGHORN Golf Club, The Club at Cordillera, The Promontory Club, and the Sandestin Golf and Beach Resort. His past and present instructional awards include the following: Golf Magazine Top 100 Teacher, Golf Digest Top 50 International Instructor, Golf Tips Top 25 Instructor, Best in State (Florida, Colorado, and California,) Top 20 Teachers Under 40, Best Young Teachers and many more. Tom is a Trackman University Master/Partner, a distinction held by less than 25 people in the world. Tom is TPI Certified- Level 1, Golf Level 2, Level 2- Power, and Level 2- Fitness and believes that you cannot reach your maximum potential as a player with out some focus on your physiology. You can reach him at [email protected] and he welcomes any questions you may have.

62 Comments

62 Comments

  1. JuNiOR

    Oct 25, 2017 at 12:51 am

    Stay single keep hitting it hard with the midnite hostess at Denny’s new girl every night then be honest about it and you might be in the right frame of mind at that point to be a PLAYER again.

    But if making the cut is the ultimate goal, time to reevaluate the why’s, even if it’s for the all mighty dollar.

  2. Schwartzman

    Oct 21, 2017 at 11:48 am

    Everybody is an expert on golf, clubs, Tiger, politics, religion and sseexx.

  3. Someone

    Oct 21, 2017 at 8:21 am

    Who are you to make demands of Tiger? He has done more for golf than you have done in your lifetime. If Tiger wants to make an attempt to keep coming back, let him. It is his right and he has earned the opportunity to keep trying. Whether he wins or fails is a matter of him getting up there and trying, but not trying at all equals failure, especially when it is in his primary career. You are ridiculous for trying to put stipulations on an athletes comeback. How about we as readers demand your articles actually be written with some quality, tact, and validity? How about we demand that you stop coming back to post on this site until you post something of meaning instead of click bait. You are ridiculous for thinking that you have any stake in whether or not Tiger can come back to golf. He is a grown man and well accomplished in the field of golf, both on and off. Take some time to think about what you write next time. Don’t furnish your personal feelings in an article and try to brandish it as a material. The site isn’t asking for your personal feelings about the happenings of golf, it’s asking you to provide insight that readers can’t get since we all have lives that consist of more than golf. Your article should have been titled, “Tiger’s coming back, but here are a few things that could hold him back from success…” and then at the end you could add on your “personal feelings” about the situation. Other than that, this ‘article’ is a worthless rant with no real golf insight, just all personal feelings about tiger’s comeback, as if he owes you ANYTHING…

  4. Jose Canseco

    Oct 21, 2017 at 8:03 am

    He should just hang it up and admit to HGH and roids that made him, like me, in the 90’s.

  5. Mike

    Oct 21, 2017 at 7:33 am

    Hogan came back and he was really bad. Then again he was a real man

  6. Mr Muira

    Oct 21, 2017 at 6:41 am

    LOL!!!…Amuricans.

  7. Moses

    Oct 20, 2017 at 11:05 pm

    You’re starting to sound like Skip Bayless.

  8. Jack Nash

    Oct 20, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Why is Woods coming back?

    $Sponsors$

    • Schwartzman

      Oct 21, 2017 at 11:50 am

      Icy Hot Back Patches …… together with Shaq?!!

  9. Garry Pierce

    Oct 20, 2017 at 4:59 pm

    who is this BOZO? Looks like he is trying to ride TW for 15 minutes of fame. How tRumpian of you Tom.. you’re fired

  10. moses

    Oct 20, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    Tiger doesn’t owe you a F’ing thing. He can attempt to come back as often as necessary and as long as his body allows it. If his body won’t allow it then that’s just the way it is. Tiger gets to ride off into the sunset any which way he sees fit.

    • Jacked_Loft

      Oct 21, 2017 at 6:32 am

      +1. What an arrogant article. Famous comebacks: Nikki Lauda, Lance Armstrong, Bobby Baun, Jack Youngblood, Michael Jordan…just to mention a few. Remember that Tiger fractured his Tibia and then went out and won the 2008 US Open? 91 holes on a bum leg, and you’re telling him not to play games with his comeback?

      • Jose Canseco

        Oct 21, 2017 at 8:05 am

        But Armstrong was juiced. As was Eldrick.

    • Dr Troy

      Oct 21, 2017 at 9:53 am

      Well said, Moses.

  11. RP Jacobs II

    Oct 20, 2017 at 2:11 pm

    “All but lost his edge” ????????

    That edge went out the window the evening that he pasted the fire hydrant.

    The aura of invincibility was gone and with it the “edge.”

    In my eyes he was the Greatest Player ever and the second Greatest Champion.

    Excellent article and thoughts!!

    Very Nicely Played?????

    Cheers????
    RP

  12. Robert Parsons

    Oct 20, 2017 at 12:35 pm

    Nobody scripts comebacks like we do. Period.

  13. Milton

    Oct 20, 2017 at 12:14 pm

    I always find it interesting when a person says “let me start off by saying, I’m a big fan of ____” before they rip the person their a big fan of a new one. I like TW, he brings an exciting element to golf. He has the 2nd most majors of anyone that played the game. At his best he revolutionized the game. However I’m not a Tiger fanatic. I like anything that helps our game. My only concern is that the writer of the article acts as if Tiger owes us something. As is TW owes it to us to come back healthy or not come back at all. If he comes back and fails, at least he tried. If he comes back and wins, well cool good for him. The guy says I’m a big Tiger fan then literally rips him to shreds.

    Thats not what we typically do in golf, but sadly it’s becoming the norm.

  14. Jay

    Oct 20, 2017 at 11:08 am

    The tough part about the Tiger comeback is that he’s admitted numerous times that he’ll never be able to practice the way that he used to when he was at his peak. So, in that sense, the old Tiger is definitely gone for good. However, if he can have sustained health (physically and mentally) for a 4-5 year period, there’s no doubt in my mind that he’d win again because he’s just that good – and if he can do that, he can win majors again for sure.
    BUT, I think we’re fooling ourselves if we think this latest surgery is going to magically fix everything – unless his swing is built to protect his back, he’ll continue to have issues and will fall into the same pattern.

  15. Darryl

    Oct 20, 2017 at 11:01 am

    Quick straw poll, how many people on this site will quit the game if Tiger doesn’t return? The result is how badly the game of golf needs him.

    • Andrew

      Oct 20, 2017 at 11:55 am

      They left already. Your idea is correct regardless. Any industry that devolves into relying on the shallow wants of the cool kid bandwagon is already dead. Golf didn’t stoop that low but it tried thanks to the ignorant hype of a few clown children who make a living in golf but never took a real economics class. The game of golf transcends any 1 man, even 100 men, and thank God for that.

  16. OB

    Oct 20, 2017 at 9:51 am

    Washed up, finished, kaput, gonzo, no good no mo’ …. believe it

  17. jgpl001

    Oct 20, 2017 at 9:18 am

    Tiger was one of the greatest ever and he took golf to a whole new level. This comeback though is nonsense and will not happen. Age and time away means the world of golf has moved on. Even back at full fitness he wouldn’t make a cut on the web dot com tour

    Very sad, he had an astounding career, but he just needs to leave it so now and stop the nonsense

    • Garry Pierce

      Oct 20, 2017 at 5:01 pm

      who are you to decide what TW does? How about you quit posting!

  18. 8thehardway

    Oct 20, 2017 at 9:17 am

    Tiger wants to be golf’s Eldrick (then Elder) Statesman. The job’s open and it’s the perfect role to counterbalance his past, regain role-model status, offer an enduring mea culpa for those into moral judgements, be a hero to his kids and elevate his status beyond the sport the defines him… in all, a very satisfying arrangement.

    There won’t be a lot of tournaments, and the early ones an indication of conditioning more than competition, but the prospect of another Jack-at-the-1986-Masters performance will start gaining traction, which is another way of saying sponsors will shower our Arnie-Jack amalgam with endorsements.

    The quest for Jack’s 18 Majors isn’t a thing anymore… he can’t sell it and nobody’s buying it; but the optics of immortality has more than one focal point and he’s a consummate lenscrafter.

  19. The dude

    Oct 20, 2017 at 5:47 am

    Great Article Tom!…..it’s what almost everyone is thinking… I’ll bet he doesn’t play though…his swing kinda sucks…and his short game peaked 13 years ago… his ego won’t allow bad play…which is inevitable. I predict a showing at the masters followed by a withdraw….citing back issues of course

  20. MB

    Oct 20, 2017 at 3:00 am

    How many millions is he going to make just from appearance fees? That’s all he’s getting ready for! Lets admit it. He’s not going to be playing the Sr circuit, so he’s going to try to collect as much as he can while he’s still able to swing a bit. For the good players and competitive players who were successful during and post-Woods era of extra dollars it may have been nice, but for the rest of us, it was like watching a bus load of unruly children got dropped off and ruined it for everybody else sort of thing, out there on the courses, that had to also had to spend millions more in maintenance and rules keeping, as well keeping the peace about the place as these unruly beginners and non-golfing beer-guzzling poorly behaved behemoths tore up the place.
    It’s best if he just didn’t play but started hanging out with Deepak Chopra and brought about enlightenment and peace to the world on the whole and the world of golf behavior.

  21. TexasSnowman

    Oct 20, 2017 at 12:37 am

    Tiger as we knew him is Not coming back. If everything goes right for him on this latest comeback (doubtful), he will return, suffer no major injuries and be a top 40 player. He could win a few tournaments and maybe even catch lightening in a bottle and contend in a major or 2 for old times sake. Odds of this actually happening: ~10%. More likely, his body will not cooperate and he will officially retire and play an occasional tourney for nostalgia value.

  22. JD

    Oct 19, 2017 at 11:05 pm

    I normally completely enjoy Tom Stickney columns but not this one. Story has been written 100 times, part of me suspects it was only written because of the amout of clicks anything about Tiger gets.
    Here’s my opinion:
    The man has done enough to shoot whatever he wants, wherever they’re lucky enough to have him. It’s not even a debate, at this point it’s like getting a chance to watch Nicklaus or Palmer. How he plays is beside the point, that he’s playing is enough. Ratings will go way up because he’s maybe the best to ever play and he makes people excited about the game. He’s Tiger Woods.

  23. Walt Bismarck

    Oct 19, 2017 at 7:37 pm

  24. prime21

    Oct 19, 2017 at 7:32 pm

    This comeback better be different? Or else what? You’re going to write a nasty article and follow that with some advice on how to fix his swing? Tiger has 100% EARNED the right to do whatever the heck he wants as it pertains to playing on the PGA Tour and if it weren’t for him, it is highly likely that your business would not be as good as it is if he were to have never played the game. Show the man the proper respect and wish him Good Luck, then stop watching if you already think you know how it is going to play out. But please, do not try to tell Tiger friggin Woods what to do or how to do it, you simply have no right. I realize you’re a big WRX Superstar now, but I think telling Tiger how he should handle his comeback takes arrogance to a whole different level, does it not? I often give you “Likes” for your instruction pieces. If they would create a new vote, this one gets an “EPIC FAIL”!

  25. UnclePhil

    Oct 19, 2017 at 6:56 pm

    Comeback?! Comeback to what?! 2001? Or no, maybe 1996 for you nostalgic clowns! 2005? Ain’t nothing comin’ back!! Maybe my latest driver will get taken back if it continues to act a fool! Ceremonial golfer at best, tourney host the most. Dude, hit da bricks, take care of your kids my friend!

  26. TeeBone

    Oct 19, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    Totally unfair. Tiger was healthy enough to play in his recent comebacks, but re-injured his back under the stress of tournament competition. He didn’t just “quit”. Besides, these guys are independent contractors. They only get paid when they perform. They don’t owe anybody anything.

  27. henry

    Oct 19, 2017 at 3:13 pm

    I agree w everything you said – except that golf needs Tiger. Yeah he might make the casual fan who only knows who Rickie and Jordan are watch a tournament here or there, but unfortunately most of those people have forgotten about Tiger. The PGA Tour is in the best place its been in quite some time.

    • prime21

      Oct 19, 2017 at 7:23 pm

      Seriously? Check the ratings from Tigers last two tournaments and compare them to any event thereafter. The reality is that Tiger STILL moves the needle better than ANY player on Tour and will continue to do so until he decides to pack it in. Does the PGA Tour NEED Tiger? No, it doesn’t. It is strong enough to exist without him, but only because of him. Is the PGA Tour better off when Tiger is present, absolutely. Whether you like him or not, Tiger is still THE MAN and there is nothing you can do about it!

    • Jay

      Oct 20, 2017 at 11:20 am

      The tour is DEFINITELY not in “the best place it’s been in quite some time” – no way. As much as the TV folks like to ingrain that in us to change perception – it’s all fraudulent. Ratings are down, sponsors are bailing, and if the trend continues, I’m pretty sure we’re getting to the point where purses will decrease, the TV $ will decrease as well, and tournaments may be eliminated. None of the top young golfers really move the needle, honestly. They’re all supremely talented, but they don’t bring in casual fans, period. All hard core golf fans (WRXers) will always watch no matter who is playing, but this isn’t about that. If golf is truly going to “grow the game” as they claim (or even just maintain), it needs an epic Tiger comeback or make some drastic changes to the game as a whole.

      • henry

        Oct 20, 2017 at 12:48 pm

        I guess im just stuck in my own mind of how awesome the tour is right now – im one of the obsessed that watches every tournament. And golf-wise, the tour is in a fantastic spot, but I guess that doesnt always equate to the bigger picture of the tour’s success. Cheers.

        • Garry Pierce

          Oct 20, 2017 at 5:09 pm

          awesome in parity? tour sucks. They need an ALPHA male. The group has no BAD GUY or Good Guy. I have a hard time calling Phil a good guy with his MAJOR moral character flaws. He should be in prison for insider trading. But Phil squeals and rats out a guy

  28. farmer

    Oct 19, 2017 at 3:06 pm

    The notion that Tiger is going to rework his swing for the next three or four months and then roar back into competitive golf like it’s 2013 is absurd. He will be 42 before the “real” 2018 season starts, coming off a year layoff, with multiple back surgeries since his last relevant year. What has been released tells of him working out twice a day, now he will start also doing serious swing work, this is the same path he’s been down before. There will be tremendous buzz when he reappears, a boost to tv ratings, but he’s going to have to show something for it to last.

  29. MW

    Oct 19, 2017 at 2:23 pm

    Golf doesn’t need Tiger. It’s doing just fine without him as it has with all the greats once they leave. Certain people such as the author of the article seem to need him, but golf is bigger than any one player. If he comes back, great, if he doesn’t, that’s fine too. You have to accept that one day he won’t be able to compete again, and that may be now, and other greats will come along. If you can’t accept that you better end up finding another sport. May I suggest bowling?

  30. Methislife

    Oct 19, 2017 at 2:04 pm

    Golf is loosing money and more importantly it’s loosing participants. Tiger can only help spark more people’s I treat in golf. If you think otherwise… you a fool. Tiger is the reason money is in golf and that’s pure fact. Tiger brings the numbers.

    Now, will tiger actually come back to being anywhere close to top 10 player? Could happen, would be awesome if happened, but will most likely not happen…

    Saying tiger past off course actions have ruled out any support for his return is funny. He didn’t cheat the game, he cheated his wife… boo hoo, he got divorced and she got a lot of cash. You all are a new breed of internet fools. Not angry trolls but self righteous attention seekers. I bet you all are the ones who complain about minorities at the course ha. You know it’s true. Deep down.

    • Guia

      Oct 19, 2017 at 4:17 pm

      Your mother raise anyone who isn’t a troll?

  31. Mike

    Oct 19, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    Pat Perez has won 3 times all in the fall or in Jan/Feb Camryn. He also never had the mental issues of Eldrick.

  32. M. Vegas

    Oct 19, 2017 at 1:40 pm

    Golf needs a guy that hits 5 wood off the tee, pulls it left of the green or air mails it, putts cuz he can’t chip, 2 putts for bogey, and then withdraws when’s he plus 6 thru 8….
    Yea we need that

  33. Derek jacks

    Oct 19, 2017 at 12:46 pm

    What a dumb post! Woods doesn’t owe anyone anything as far as golf so don’t get the ultimatum that things be better this time around. Who r u????

  34. Chip

    Oct 19, 2017 at 12:38 pm

    Sorry his body can be as predictable as he wishes, Tom.

    • Mike

      Oct 19, 2017 at 1:41 pm

      You’re right, it’s just his physical issues keeping him from being the Tiger of old. Nothing mental going on there.

  35. Bruce Ferguson

    Oct 19, 2017 at 12:36 pm

    With all the young talent on the tour these days, I’m not optimistic over Tigers return. One thing for sure, if he ends up being frustrated on the course, I don’t want to hear cursing, or see spitting on the green or slamming a club in the ground. Be the man . . . count to ten, relax, regroup, focus.

  36. Andrew

    Oct 19, 2017 at 11:01 am

    I was a Tiger fan, then I grew up and learned to be honest. Golf suffers when he is around now. He is a disgrace as a man and a person. Shame on the sell-outs who ignore his history of womanizing and phony remorse. You’re just as phony as Tiger.

    • hays

      Oct 19, 2017 at 11:26 am

      I’m so glad you know the guy on a personal level. you say you “grew up”…doesn’t sound like it

    • golfreality

      Oct 19, 2017 at 2:07 pm

      you left out drug addict

  37. Philip

    Oct 19, 2017 at 10:46 am

    I think you have it backwards … golf does not need Tiger – sponsors and OEMs liked the increase in revenues associated with Tiger, however, the system of golf is adapting quite well. On the other hand, I think Tiger needs golf! It is his entire life – if he was more balanced during his peak then he could walk away feeling complete … unfortunately, that isn’t what has happened and even if Tiger walks away officially – I don’t think in his head that he would truly be okay with that. It is what it is.

  38. Malcolm Herbert

    Oct 19, 2017 at 10:39 am

    I agree with 99% of the article, but strongly disagree that golf needs Tiger and tiger doesn’t need golf. I think golf does not need tiger at all. I agree that it’s better off with him, but the game is healthy enough and we have enough young and exciting talent that golf will be more than ok if we never see tiger touch a club again. Also, I do think that tiger thinks he needs golf. There are things in using life that are more important, like his kids and health, which suggest he doesn’t need golf, but tiger thinks he needs golf. He can’t walk away, it’s become a part of him that he can’t live without. Every time he leaves, he comes back as quick as possible- often too quick- and seems like he takes the first chance he can to come back. While I hope he can separate his life from golf to the extent that is healthy when it isn’t necessary, it seems like golf is always the first thing on his mind, and who can’t blame him. But it feels like he needs golf, and I know, while golf wants him and could use him, we don’t need him.

  39. Andy c

    Oct 19, 2017 at 10:30 am

    Golf does not need Tiger….it existed before Tiger and will exist after Tiger, The business of golf ie. those that make a living from the game may need him but the game of golf does not.

    • xjohnx

      Oct 19, 2017 at 10:43 am

      You’re right from an overall standpoint but, I think the interpretation is that golf has been suffering over the last few years and needs a shot in the arm. There is not one single person on this planet except Tiger that can really bring that in the direct way that Tiger can. Nobody is saying golf is going to become obsolete without Tiger, the point is golf needs Tiger RIGHT NOW.

      • Philip

        Oct 19, 2017 at 10:51 am

        Okay, so golf gets a quick shot … and then what? It does not address the long term. Hey, I enjoyed Tiger’s aggressive shots as much as anyone, but if he does that he likely won’t last one tournament and how much fun would it be for everyone to have a “safe” Tiger constantly in the top 10 – nipping at the more aggressive players and occasionally winning a tournament here and there.

      • Andrew

        Oct 19, 2017 at 11:13 am

        Golf is doing just fine now and does not need a shot in the arm, John. Tiger is less of a shot in the arm and more like a black eye. Golf suffered long-term because of Tiger. He represented a loss of decency and integrity that takes a generation to heal. Golf is better now without him and healing properly. The Tiger bandwagoners who don’t love golf or deserve it are gone, off to the next cool thing. Good luck and good riddance.

        • Dr Troy

          Oct 19, 2017 at 2:32 pm

          Andrew- Golf is doing fine now, yes. However, if you dont think for a second that TW will not entice more people to watch more golf, then you are young and naive sir. Obviously, you have a disdain for him and thats your choice, but there are a TON of Tiger fans that will watch regardless. Most could care less of his personal life, as so many stone throwers on here obviously do. And as far as a “black eye”, how about you ask some TOUR pros how much extra money is in their bank accounts because of Tiger. The sport of golf has no black eye, nor really ever did(I think you are confusing it with the NBA). Your reference to “healing”?? Really?? What happened, did we all go through mental and physical torture?? Ok…Sure.

        • Snowflake

          Oct 20, 2017 at 12:30 am

          You probably don’t think you’re a racist. MAGA. Ignorant.

          • Mat

            Oct 21, 2017 at 12:45 pm

            Based purely on what’s written above, I don’t think he’s racist either. You must put in a lot of time in the gym to be strong enough to walk around with that enormous chip on your shoulder.

          • LD

            Oct 22, 2017 at 9:27 am

            I agree with Mat. Care to point out his “racism” in his post? Astute user name, BTW. Absolutely perfect.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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