Opinion & Analysis
Do Taller Golfers Have An Advantage?
You would assume that height would be an advantage in golf. After all, taller golfers have the potential to hit the ball farther based simply on their limb length, mass, and overall body strength. Doesn’t a taller golfer’s ability to drive the ball as much as 30 yards or 50 yards past his shorter opponent give him a head start that can’t be overcome?
Well, there’s that well-known fable concerning the tortoise and the hare, and we all know how that turned out. A fast start is no guarantee of a fast finish. Maybe that’s the point that Harvey Penick was attempting to make in his own way when he said, “The woods are full of big hitters.” I think you would agree that there’s is no point in hitting the ball a long way off the tee if doesn’t end up in the fairway consistently.
Charlie Danielson
After working with a number of tall players over the years, I had come to the conclusion that height was a not an advantage. In fact, with only a few exceptions, it seemed to be a distinct disadvantage.
In considering this subject, I thought of my former student Charlie Danielson, who was 6-feet 5-inches tall. I‘d worked with Charlie through his high school years up until the week that he left to play for Coach Mike Small at the University of Illinois, where he helped his team capture the NCAA Championship. In working with Charlie, I found that the plane of his swing could vary as much as a foot over the course of a single week. In this regard, he was not the exception to the rule, but more the norm when it came to be working with tall players.
The advantage that Charlie had was that he was fully capable of hitting good shots even when the plane of swing was less than ideal. He was like a great hitter in baseball; he would just adjust to the height of the pitch and make it work.
The Taller Player
The logical assumption, as mentioned earlier, would be that a taller player would naturally hit the ball farther than a shorter player. And that distance would then allow the taller player to outperform the smaller player every time. That contention would certainly seem to be evidenced by looking at today’s modern wonder boys, Dustin Johnson at 6-feet 4-inches and Jordan Spieth at 6-feet 1-inch. Between them, they’ve have won a total of nine events and a total of $17 million on the PGA Tour in an eight-month period.
That said, I’ve found over the years that there are six areas where tall players typically struggle. These six areas constitute what I refer to as “The Taller Player Syndrome,” and these problems ultimately affect a player’s ability to score.
The Taller Player Syndrome
No. 1: The Setup
The first disadvantage is related to setting up to the ball. How does it make sense that a player who is 6-feet 5-inches tall would use the same length irons as another player who is 5-feet 7-inches tall? And yet, realistically, the most an iron can extended is about an inch before it becomes unmanageable. In this case, there is a difference of 10 inches in height between these two players.
The taller player must then account for this difference in the setup, which becomes exceedingly awkward — especially with the shorter irons. This is in contrast to the shorter player, who only needs to bend slightly forward from the hips, place the sole of his club on the ground, and then make a swing.
No. 2: Lower Body Instability
The distance from the taller player’s feet to his knees, and the distance from his knees to his hips, is considerably greater than the shorter player. This lends itself to general instability in the lower body, especially where the length of the legs is disproportionate to the torso, ensuring poor balance throughout the swing.
No. 3: Excessive Knee-Drive
There is a universal tendency for taller players to develop excessive knee-drive on their downswing, causing them to finish with their backs in an arched position as if they were doing the side-ways limbo. This places excessive pressure on the lumbar region of the back.
No. 4: Lower Back Issues
In many cases, I’ve found that taller golfers have legs that are not equal in length, which creates setup and balance issues. There are three possible causes for the apparent disparity in leg length:
- The first possible cause can be genetic, meaning that the length of the leg bones on either side of the body are unequal, which is actually quite rare.
- The second possible cause, which is more common, occurs when the pelvis has been torqued in one direction or another. In a case where the pelvis has been twisted to the left, the right leg becomes functionally longer while the left becomes shorter. The reverse is true when the pelvis is twisted in the opposite direction.
- A third possible cause is when the stronger and less flexible muscles on one side of the body take over. This has the effect of pulling the lower spine out of alignment and in the process, pinching delicate nerves. which is the basis of pain. Those players with this condition will universally complain of periodic or chronic back pain, which often grows worse with age.
No. 5: Fluctuating Spine Angle
The arc of the swing revolves around the spine, which is inclined forward at address. This angle must be retained throughout the swing until the ball is struck, which makes for consistent shot-making. The required angle at address is considerably more acute for a taller player than a shorter player, making it more difficult to retain the angle through impact.
No. 6: Variable Backswing Plane
The most significant problem for the taller player, as mentioned earlier, is the variety of planes in which the club can be swung. The plane can vary from horizontal to vertical and everywhere else in between.
In contrast, a shorter player has, for the most part, only one swing plane. And invariably it’s the correct one, because it comes more naturally to them than the taller player. The inability to swing the club on the same plane on a consistent basis ultimately leads to variations in performance.
PGA Tour Money List
I decided to look at the top-15 players on this year’s PGA Tour Money List to determine if there was a connection between the height of the players and how well they performed in terms of dollars earned between January 1 and August 31, 2017, as outlined above.
The study would hardly meet scientific guidelines, based on (1) limited sampling, (2) short time period, (3) lack of a control group.
The Study
The study was not designed to prove or disprove any one theory. I simply wanted to determine in rather short order if there was a plausible correlation between a player’s height and the number of dollars they earned on the PGA Tour.
The study would seem to suggest that in terms of dollars earned, height is neither an advantage or a disadvantage. That said, a broader study conducted in a purely scientific manner “might” reveal additional insight on the subject.
- The numbers indicate that taller players on the PGA Tour do not hold an advantage over shorter players.
- In the reverse, shorter players on the PGA Tour may hold a slight advantage over taller players based on their durability, making them less prone to injury.
- The amount of money earned on an average by those players under 6-feet tall is virtually same as the amount of money earned by those players over 6-feet tall.
- The numbers suggest that the composite height of “the perfect golfer” has increased from previous years to between 5-feet 11-inches and 6-feet tall.
- The numbers are skewed in favor of taller players by Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar, who are both 6-feet 4-inches tall. Were these two players NOT among the top-15 money winners, the average height of the entire group would dip toward the shorter side.
Some additional findings included:
- The shortest player in the group is Brian Harman at 5-feet 7-inches.
- There are a six players who are below 6-feet, while there are nine players who are 6-feet or taller.
- The average amount of money won by the six players under 6-feet was $5,714,844, while the average amount of money won by the nine players over 6-feet was $5,323,572.
In many other sports, height is an advantage and in some cases a requirement. In this regard, golf is unique. The height of the player is for the most part irrelevant when it comes to earning, and by extension, playing the game well.
Would these same findings apply to amateur golfers across the board, including those with handicaps from scratch to 30? That grouping would have to be studied on an independent basis to reach a valid conclusion, though a plausible assumption is that it would be similar.
In addition, this limited study indicates that height of “the perfect golfer” would seem to be increasing. This may well be due to the fact that the sport is attracting bigger and better athletes, who might have chosen to play another sport in prior generations, but were attracted by the fame and fortune that golf now offers its stars.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla
The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.
The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.
Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.
Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.
The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.
Past Winners of the PGA Championship
- 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
- 2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
- 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
- 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
- 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
- 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
- 2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
- 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Valhalla
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.
Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Shane Lowry (+1.25)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
- Jordan Smith (+1.05)
- Tom Hoge (+.96)
- Corey Conners (+.94)
2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
- Keith Mitchell (+.90)
- Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
- Ludvig Aberg (+.82)
Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs
Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:
- Jon Rahm (+2.56)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
- Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
- Shane Lowry (+1.57)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses
Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.60)
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships
One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
- Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
- Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
- Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens
Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
- Justin Rose (+0.93)
- J.T. Poston (0.87)
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways
Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:
- Justin Thomas (+1.53)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
- Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.23)
2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).
- Brooks Koepka
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Shane Lowry
- Alex Noren
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Young
- Keith Mitchell
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Billy Horschel
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Adam Schenk
- Chris Kirk
- Sahith Theegala
- Min Woo Lee
- Joaquin Niemann
- Justin Thomas
2024 PGA Championship Picks
Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)
At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.
Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.
Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.
In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.
Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)
Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.
At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.
Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.
Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.
Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)
There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.
Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.
Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.
Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.
Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)
I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.
Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.
Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.
Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.
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In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.
At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.
It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.
And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.
I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.
But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.
If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.
To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.
There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.
Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.
The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.
First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.
And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”
So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.
More from the Wedge Guy
- The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1
- The Wedge Guy: The easiest-to-learn golf basic
- The Wedge Guy: Golf mastery begins with your wedge game
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title
The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.
After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.
Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.
Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.
The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.
Past Winners at Quail Hollow
- 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
- 2022: Max Homa (-8)
- 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
- 2019: Max Homa (-15)
- 2018: Jason Day (-12)
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
- 2016: James Hahn (-9)
- 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)
Key Stats For Quail Hollow
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Corey Conners (+1.01)
- Shane Lowry (+0.93)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.82)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
- Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
- Chris Kirk (+0.52)
Proximity: 175-200
The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.
Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:
- Cameron Young (28’2″)
- Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
- Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
- Sam Burns (+30’6″)
- Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)
SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs
Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.
SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
- Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.57)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Taylor Moore (+0.82)
- Nick Dunlap (+.76)
- Wyndham Clark (+.69)
- Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
- Cam Davis (+.61)
Course History
This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.
Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):
- Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
- Justin Thomas (+1.96)
- Jason Day (+1.92)
- Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.78)
Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).
- Wyndham Clark
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Shane Lowry
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Viktor Hovland
- Cameron Young
- Austin Eckroat
- Byeong Hun An
- Justin Thomas
2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks
Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)
I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.
Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.
Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.
For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.
I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.
Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)
It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.
Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.
The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.
Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.
Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.
Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)
For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.
Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.
The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.
Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.
Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)
Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.
Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.
An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.
Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.
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Pingback: Do Tall Golfers Have An Advantage - Pros And Cons Of Being Tall For Golf - (MUST READ Before You Buy)
Duhg
Oct 16, 2017 at 10:26 am
Being taller can be an advantage if you are a very good athlete. If you are a weekend warrior hack, then it probably works against you.
8thehardway
Oct 14, 2017 at 7:24 am
This article only makes sense if the author is 6’5″ and wants to convince his 5’8″ buddies to take fewer strokes.
Jack Nash
Oct 13, 2017 at 8:22 pm
Taller golfers? Like The Golden Bear?
Walt Kihm
Aug 11, 2023 at 2:43 pm
The G Bear is 5’10” & his hands below average in size.
He ran the 100 yard dash in high school & started on the basketball team.
Walt Kihm
Aug 11, 2023 at 3:23 pm
Chi Chi Rodrequez was 5’3″ or 5’4″ & could hit a driver 300 yards with the old persimmon heads. I saw him do on the practice range in St. Louis.
He would hit 1 high draw & then hit a high fade & the 2 balls would crisscross in the air.
Tony Hadley
Oct 13, 2017 at 4:24 pm
Facts don’t care about your feelings Maruman. Try reading “The Bell Curve.” It will help you out.
Marcello
Oct 13, 2017 at 12:49 pm
At 6.6″, this sure makes sense to me.
Does anyone have any references in FL for golf instructors who specifically teach tall golfers?
Peter in Parker
Oct 13, 2017 at 10:53 am
I have noticed that heavier set folks can really drive the ball far. So if you are not tall…..eat eat eat !! Put on those carbs……..
Cheesehead42
Oct 13, 2017 at 10:25 am
I am 6’9″ so I can probably offer a little bit of first-hand experience.
1. Longer levers may allow for more club head speed but in my experience, the longer the club is moving, the more time there is for something to get off track. Imagine someone who is 5’10” swinging a 50″ driver versus myself swinging a 45″ driver. Yes, if everything is timed correctly you can generate some power/speed but you need a swing that is really dialed in to take full advantage of it.
2. It is a pain in the a$$ to get fitted. Getting fitted sounds great as long as what they have in the cart fits you. After a lot of trial and error, I finally got into a set that truly fits me….. +2″ length and +6’5* upright on irons and wedges. There is not a fitting cart in the world with those options.
3. We (tall people) bend over for everything (reaching down to open a door, ducking to walk through a door, bending down to hug your wife, etc) so we want to stand upright as much as possible. This includes with our swing. Coming out of the swing early has been something that I gave up trying to fix and decided to just adapt my swing to it. I play to a 9 now and feel that will go down but it has only gotten better after I decided to adapt a swing to my body rather than trying to emulate what YouTube tells me.
Ardbeggar
Oct 13, 2017 at 8:48 am
I’m convinced! I’m going to start practising getting taller.
larry
Oct 13, 2017 at 8:26 am
terrible read
MB
Oct 13, 2017 at 2:45 am
This needs a good 25-year study and not just some short term earnings based off the Fedex Cup race.
Grizz
Oct 13, 2017 at 2:57 pm
I agree, a much longer study would be better. Nicklaus was what? 5’11” and could drive the ball with old equipment over 300 yards. His short game lacked though, but I think that is because he hit more greens and didn’t need the short game as much and didn’t practice like he should.
I also think the study needs to include arm length and leg power and core strength. I’m 6 ft. But have the arms of the average length of someone 6’3-6’4. With that fulcrum/leverage and very strong and quick core, I’m long off the tee and fairly accurate. But my shorter mid-range 30-80 yards is the worst part of my game. It’s not the lack of practice but I think the long arms have trouble with getting into that rhythm.
Mark
Oct 12, 2017 at 8:21 pm
May I suggest you search for an excellent discussion in the Clubmaking forum on fitting clubs for tall golfers. If you do bother to read this you will realise that your statement ” And yet, realistically, the most an iron can extended is about an inch before it becomes unmanageable.” reveals you to be someone who has limited club fitting experience.
Casey Svejkovsky
Oct 12, 2017 at 4:38 pm
If you look at Phil Mickelson who’s 6’3″, he hits it all over the place and still finds a way to win tournaments. It all comes down to who has the best short game, at the end of the day, not who can hit it the straightest. Coaches now can find away around a disadvantage
Walt Kihm
Aug 11, 2023 at 2:49 pm
You don’t want Phil in the trees; he will pull off a miracle shot. I would want him in the fairway.
Bishop
Oct 12, 2017 at 4:19 pm
I feel height provides no advantage to a player. As a 5’6″ hack, I’m still able to consistently out-drive most of my playing partners, and all of them are taller than me.
A couple of big-hitters who are short: Ben Hogan (who was 5’7″ and 135 pounds) and Rory (who’s also 5’7″).
M. Vegas
Oct 12, 2017 at 4:52 pm
5’6” is probably rounded up a lil…
Not much luck with the cart girls, I’d also bet
Peeny
Oct 13, 2017 at 2:46 am
Who cares if you are taller or shorter!? This game is a game of adversity (for everyone).
This article and these comments just seem to bash based on a physical trait that people have no control over, and has the same framework as racism. C’mon guys – just go out there and have some fun. Don’t worry about what everyone else is doing.
Cornwall1888
Oct 13, 2017 at 11:26 am
Mcilroy is about 5’9″
Bishop
Oct 13, 2017 at 3:05 pm
Thanks for the correction, Cornwall. I had understood that he was shorter, but after researching, you’re definitely right.
M. Vegas
Oct 13, 2017 at 6:50 pm
Yea learn some facts Troyer
Kurt Guldi
Oct 12, 2017 at 2:44 pm
Not a bad article. Though I feel like it is pretty generic. I’m a taller player at 6’3″. However, my arms and legs are short for my height-(72″ arm span, 30″ inseam”). So for example, the section referring to club length….. someone who is 10″ taller will also generally have longer arms which would offset the height difference somewhat. Also, someone like me who is taller but has shorter legs, doesn’t have the same issues with lower body instability as someone who has the typical leg length.
Mat
Oct 12, 2017 at 3:54 pm
Agreed. Let’s do the same calculation by Wingspan:Height ratio.
2putttom
Oct 12, 2017 at 8:47 pm
Kurt your nick name shall be T Rex :~)
Matt
Oct 12, 2017 at 12:39 pm
Gotta love golf. Still to this day the most “egalitarian” sport physically. Which is why golfers are the most talented athletes on Earth. We have basically the entire world population to compete against. Those other sports have about 3% of the population to contend with. The reason is so much force in a golf shot comes from the player’s athletic ability to deliver a large spring into the back of the ball. If coordinated enough a relatively “weak” athlete like Justin Thomas (I am comparing him to what is required to even be on the gridiron or baseball diamond), can leverage a golf club and hit the ball further than those much larger. Its athleticism to use a golf club properly, but the club is a huge equalizer. A baseball bat does not flex much, its basically brute force with all the energy coming purely from the body. Football and basketball have obvious physical limitations, with basketball so ridiculous is almost funny – literally freaks of nature. How many 6’9″ people do you see, you could literally go weeks in a big city and not spot one, not to mention 7′ or something).
Tommy
Oct 12, 2017 at 12:09 pm
I’ve said all this for years. With their short irons, taller players can have trouble even reaching the ball properly. Look at Keegan Bradley, how he’s all bent over and contorted to reach it properly. It’s very tough to fit a taller person with club length…almost impossible for someone with longer legs.
C
Oct 12, 2017 at 2:45 pm
Pretty sure Keegan is properly fit into his clubs. That’s just his stance and swing.
Scott
Oct 13, 2017 at 10:05 am
I will say the difficultly in fitting taller amateur players is the day to day variation in the address position which causes a number of the items discussed in the article. I am about 6′ 1″ or so with a very long wing span. I have difficultly maintaining what I feel is a proper address on a day to day basis. Just something that needs to be worked through
Greg V
Oct 12, 2017 at 11:49 am
In the days of persimmon, it was helpful to be “closer to your work.” Look at players such as Tom Watson, Lanny Wadkins, Ben Crenshaw. Even Jack Nicklaus was only 5′ 10″. Now that 460 cc drivers are the norm, and good lightweight graphite shafts make longer clubs more feasible, golfers up to 6’2″ or 6’3″ are still plenty close to their work.
Bruce Ferguson
Oct 12, 2017 at 1:25 pm
I’m 6’3″. As the the argument of longer limbs giving an advantage, I can’t say. I can say that, in my experience, a big reason I don’t play blade-sized irons is that they look so tiny from my height. If I were 5’9″ or shorter, I might be more confident playing a compact iron head. I might also fit better in some of those sports cars I fancy . . .
Ryan
Oct 12, 2017 at 11:45 am
Average height of an American male is 5’9”. Only Brian Harmon is shorter. Everyone else is average or above… feels like a correlation to me.
C
Oct 12, 2017 at 1:29 pm
Came here to say this.
Dan
Oct 13, 2017 at 1:20 pm
I was going to pint this exact thing out. The average American male is 5’9″ now, and back when I was a kid it was 5’7″, that was when Jack playing so even then he was 3″ above the norm. I think there is no doubt height is an advantage, it’s hard to ignore physics and those extra lever lengths help. Two people of exactly the same intrinsic skill, will perform differently because of the physics involved if they are different in height, or other dimension. Comparing the top golfers with average height shows that most are above average, and if you look at women’s golf this evidence becomes even more profound.