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Opinion & Analysis

Do Taller Golfers Have An Advantage?

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You would assume that height would be an advantage in golf. After all, taller golfers have the potential to hit the ball farther based simply on their limb length, mass, and overall body strength. Doesn’t a taller golfer’s ability to drive the ball as much as 30 yards or 50 yards past his shorter opponent give him a head start that can’t be overcome?

Well, there’s that well-known fable concerning the tortoise and the hare, and we all know how that turned out. A fast start is no guarantee of a fast finish. Maybe that’s the point that Harvey Penick was attempting to make in his own way when he said, “The woods are full of big hitters.” I think you would agree that there’s is no point in hitting the ball a long way off the tee if doesn’t end up in the fairway consistently.

Charlie Danielson 

After working with a number of tall players over the years, I had come to the conclusion that height was a not an advantage. In fact, with only a few exceptions, it seemed to be a distinct disadvantage.

In considering this subject, I thought of my former student Charlie Danielson, who was 6-feet 5-inches tall. I‘d worked with Charlie through his high school years up until the week that he left to play for Coach Mike Small at the University of Illinois, where he helped his team capture the NCAA Championship. In working with Charlie, I found that the plane of his swing could vary as much as a foot over the course of a single week. In this regard, he was not the exception to the rule, but more the norm when it came to be working with tall players.

The advantage that Charlie had was that he was fully capable of hitting good shots even when the plane of swing was less than ideal. He was like a great hitter in baseball; he would just adjust to the height of the pitch and make it work.

The Taller Player 

The logical assumption, as mentioned earlier, would be that a taller player would naturally hit the ball farther than a shorter player. And that distance would then allow the taller player to outperform the smaller player every time. That contention would certainly seem to be evidenced by looking at today’s modern wonder boys, Dustin Johnson at 6-feet 4-inches and Jordan Spieth at 6-feet 1-inch. Between them, they’ve have won a total of nine events and a total of $17 million on the PGA Tour in an eight-month period.

Table_2_Rod_Height

That said, I’ve found over the years that there are six areas where tall players typically struggle. These six areas constitute what I refer to as “The Taller Player Syndrome,” and these problems ultimately affect a player’s ability to score.

The Taller Player Syndrome 

No. 1: The Setup

The first disadvantage is related to setting up to the ball. How does it make sense that a player who is 6-feet 5-inches tall would use the same length irons as another player who is 5-feet 7-inches tall? And yet, realistically, the most an iron can extended is about an inch before it becomes unmanageable. In this case, there is a difference of 10 inches in height between these two players.

The taller player must then account for this difference in the setup, which becomes exceedingly awkward — especially with the shorter irons. This is in contrast to the shorter player, who only needs to bend slightly forward from the hips, place the sole of his club on the ground, and then make a swing.

No. 2: Lower Body Instability

The distance from the taller player’s feet to his knees, and the distance from his knees to his hips, is considerably greater than the shorter player. This lends itself to general instability in the lower body, especially where the length of the legs is disproportionate to the torso, ensuring poor balance throughout the swing.

No. 3: Excessive Knee-Drive

There is a universal tendency for taller players to develop excessive knee-drive on their downswing, causing them to finish with their backs in an arched position as if they were doing the side-ways limbo. This places excessive pressure on the lumbar region of the back.

No. 4: Lower Back Issues

In many cases, I’ve found that taller golfers have legs that are not equal in length, which creates setup and balance issues. There are three possible causes for the apparent disparity in leg length:

  1. The first possible cause can be genetic, meaning that the length of the leg bones on either side of the body are unequal, which is actually quite rare.
  2. The second possible cause, which is more common, occurs when the pelvis has been torqued in one direction or another. In a case where the pelvis has been twisted to the left, the right leg becomes functionally longer while the left becomes shorter. The reverse is true when the pelvis is twisted in the opposite direction.
  3. A third possible cause is when the stronger and less flexible muscles on one side of the body take over. This has the effect of pulling the lower spine out of alignment and in the process, pinching delicate nerves. which is the basis of pain. Those players with this condition will universally complain of periodic or chronic back pain, which often grows worse with age.

No. 5: Fluctuating Spine Angle

The arc of the swing revolves around the spine, which is inclined forward at address. This angle must be retained throughout the swing until the ball is struck, which makes for consistent shot-making. The required angle at address is considerably more acute for a taller player than a shorter player, making it more difficult to retain the angle through impact.

No. 6: Variable Backswing Plane

The most significant problem for the taller player, as mentioned earlier, is the variety of planes in which the club can be swung. The plane can vary from horizontal to vertical and everywhere else in between.

In contrast, a shorter player has, for the most part, only one swing plane. And invariably it’s the correct one, because it comes more naturally to them than the taller player. The inability to swing the club on the same plane on a consistent basis ultimately leads to variations in performance.

PGA Tour Money List 

Table_1_Rod_Height

I decided to look at the top-15 players on this year’s PGA Tour Money List to determine if there was a connection between the height of the players and how well they performed in terms of dollars earned between January 1 and August 31, 2017, as outlined above.

The study would hardly meet scientific guidelines, based on (1) limited sampling, (2) short time period, (3) lack of a control group.

The Study

The study was not designed to prove or disprove any one theory. I simply wanted to determine in rather short order if there was a plausible correlation between a player’s height and the number of dollars they earned on the PGA Tour.

The study would seem to suggest that in terms of dollars earned, height is neither an advantage or a disadvantage. That said, a broader study conducted in a purely scientific manner “might” reveal additional insight on the subject.

  • The numbers indicate that taller players on the PGA Tour do not hold an advantage over shorter players.
  • In the reverse, shorter players on the PGA Tour may hold a slight advantage over taller players based on their durability, making them less prone to injury.
  • The amount of money earned on an average by those players under 6-feet tall is virtually same as the amount of money earned by those players over 6-feet tall.
  • The numbers suggest that the composite height of “the perfect golfer” has increased from previous years to between 5-feet 11-inches and 6-feet tall.
  • The numbers are skewed in favor of taller players by Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar, who are both 6-feet 4-inches tall. Were these two players NOT among the top-15 money winners, the average height of the entire group would dip toward the shorter side.

Some additional findings included:

  • The shortest player in the group is Brian Harman at 5-feet 7-inches.
  • There are a six players who are below 6-feet, while there are nine players who are 6-feet or taller.
  • The average amount of money won by the six players under 6-feet was $5,714,844, while the average amount of money won by the nine players over 6-feet was $5,323,572.

In many other sports, height is an advantage and in some cases a requirement. In this regard, golf is unique. The height of the player is for the most part irrelevant when it comes to earning, and by extension, playing the game well.

Would these same findings apply to amateur golfers across the board, including those with handicaps from scratch to 30? That grouping would have to be studied on an independent basis to reach a valid conclusion, though a plausible assumption is that it would be similar.

In addition, this limited study indicates that height of “the perfect golfer” would seem to be increasing. This may well be due to the fact that the sport is attracting bigger and better athletes, who might have chosen to play another sport in prior generations, but were attracted by the fame and fortune that golf now offers its stars.

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As a teacher, Rod Lidenberg reached the pinnacle of his career when he was named to GOLF Magazine's "Top 100" Teachers in America. The PGA Master Professional and three-time Minnesota PGA "Teacher of the Year" has over his forty-five year career, worked with a variety of players from beginners to tour professionals. He especially enjoys training elite junior players, many who have gone on to earn scholarships at top colleges around the country, in addition to winning several national amateur championships. Lidenberg maintains an active schedule teaching at Bluff Creek Golf Course Chanhassen, Minnesota, in the summer and The Golf Zone, Chaska, Minnesota, in the winter months. As a player, he competed in two USGA Public Links Championships; the first in Dallas, Texas, and the second in Phoenix, Arizona, where he finished among the top 40. He also entertained thousands of fans playing in a series of three exhibition matches beginning in 1972, at his home course, Edgewood G.C. in Fargo, North Dakota, where he played consecutive years with Doug Sanders, Lee Trevino and Laura Baugh. As an author, he has a number of books in various stages of development, the first of which will be published this fall entitled "I Knew Patty Berg." In Fall 2017, he will be launching a new Phoenix-based instruction business that will feature first-time-ever TREATMENT OF THE YIPS.

36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. Pingback: How Tall Is Harman - Stardom Times

  2. Pingback: Do Tall Golfers Have An Advantage - Pros And Cons Of Being Tall For Golf - (MUST READ Before You Buy)

  3. Duhg

    Oct 16, 2017 at 10:26 am

    Being taller can be an advantage if you are a very good athlete. If you are a weekend warrior hack, then it probably works against you.

  4. 8thehardway

    Oct 14, 2017 at 7:24 am

    This article only makes sense if the author is 6’5″ and wants to convince his 5’8″ buddies to take fewer strokes.

  5. Jack Nash

    Oct 13, 2017 at 8:22 pm

    Taller golfers? Like The Golden Bear?

    • Walt Kihm

      Aug 11, 2023 at 2:43 pm

      The G Bear is 5’10” & his hands below average in size.

      He ran the 100 yard dash in high school & started on the basketball team.

      • Walt Kihm

        Aug 11, 2023 at 3:23 pm

        Chi Chi Rodrequez was 5’3″ or 5’4″ & could hit a driver 300 yards with the old persimmon heads. I saw him do on the practice range in St. Louis.
        He would hit 1 high draw & then hit a high fade & the 2 balls would crisscross in the air.

  6. Tony Hadley

    Oct 13, 2017 at 4:24 pm

    Facts don’t care about your feelings Maruman. Try reading “The Bell Curve.” It will help you out.

  7. Marcello

    Oct 13, 2017 at 12:49 pm

    At 6.6″, this sure makes sense to me.
    Does anyone have any references in FL for golf instructors who specifically teach tall golfers?

  8. Peter in Parker

    Oct 13, 2017 at 10:53 am

    I have noticed that heavier set folks can really drive the ball far. So if you are not tall…..eat eat eat !! Put on those carbs……..

  9. Cheesehead42

    Oct 13, 2017 at 10:25 am

    I am 6’9″ so I can probably offer a little bit of first-hand experience.

    1. Longer levers may allow for more club head speed but in my experience, the longer the club is moving, the more time there is for something to get off track. Imagine someone who is 5’10” swinging a 50″ driver versus myself swinging a 45″ driver. Yes, if everything is timed correctly you can generate some power/speed but you need a swing that is really dialed in to take full advantage of it.

    2. It is a pain in the a$$ to get fitted. Getting fitted sounds great as long as what they have in the cart fits you. After a lot of trial and error, I finally got into a set that truly fits me….. +2″ length and +6’5* upright on irons and wedges. There is not a fitting cart in the world with those options.

    3. We (tall people) bend over for everything (reaching down to open a door, ducking to walk through a door, bending down to hug your wife, etc) so we want to stand upright as much as possible. This includes with our swing. Coming out of the swing early has been something that I gave up trying to fix and decided to just adapt my swing to it. I play to a 9 now and feel that will go down but it has only gotten better after I decided to adapt a swing to my body rather than trying to emulate what YouTube tells me.

  10. Ardbeggar

    Oct 13, 2017 at 8:48 am

    I’m convinced! I’m going to start practising getting taller.

  11. larry

    Oct 13, 2017 at 8:26 am

    terrible read

  12. MB

    Oct 13, 2017 at 2:45 am

    This needs a good 25-year study and not just some short term earnings based off the Fedex Cup race.

    • Grizz

      Oct 13, 2017 at 2:57 pm

      I agree, a much longer study would be better. Nicklaus was what? 5’11” and could drive the ball with old equipment over 300 yards. His short game lacked though, but I think that is because he hit more greens and didn’t need the short game as much and didn’t practice like he should.

      I also think the study needs to include arm length and leg power and core strength. I’m 6 ft. But have the arms of the average length of someone 6’3-6’4. With that fulcrum/leverage and very strong and quick core, I’m long off the tee and fairly accurate. But my shorter mid-range 30-80 yards is the worst part of my game. It’s not the lack of practice but I think the long arms have trouble with getting into that rhythm.

  13. Mark

    Oct 12, 2017 at 8:21 pm

    May I suggest you search for an excellent discussion in the Clubmaking forum on fitting clubs for tall golfers. If you do bother to read this you will realise that your statement ” And yet, realistically, the most an iron can extended is about an inch before it becomes unmanageable.” reveals you to be someone who has limited club fitting experience.

  14. Casey Svejkovsky

    Oct 12, 2017 at 4:38 pm

    If you look at Phil Mickelson who’s 6’3″, he hits it all over the place and still finds a way to win tournaments. It all comes down to who has the best short game, at the end of the day, not who can hit it the straightest. Coaches now can find away around a disadvantage

    • Walt Kihm

      Aug 11, 2023 at 2:49 pm

      You don’t want Phil in the trees; he will pull off a miracle shot. I would want him in the fairway.

  15. Bishop

    Oct 12, 2017 at 4:19 pm

    I feel height provides no advantage to a player. As a 5’6″ hack, I’m still able to consistently out-drive most of my playing partners, and all of them are taller than me.

    A couple of big-hitters who are short: Ben Hogan (who was 5’7″ and 135 pounds) and Rory (who’s also 5’7″).

    • M. Vegas

      Oct 12, 2017 at 4:52 pm

      5’6” is probably rounded up a lil…
      Not much luck with the cart girls, I’d also bet

      • Peeny

        Oct 13, 2017 at 2:46 am

        Who cares if you are taller or shorter!? This game is a game of adversity (for everyone).
        This article and these comments just seem to bash based on a physical trait that people have no control over, and has the same framework as racism. C’mon guys – just go out there and have some fun. Don’t worry about what everyone else is doing.

    • Cornwall1888

      Oct 13, 2017 at 11:26 am

      Mcilroy is about 5’9″

      • Bishop

        Oct 13, 2017 at 3:05 pm

        Thanks for the correction, Cornwall. I had understood that he was shorter, but after researching, you’re definitely right.

  16. Kurt Guldi

    Oct 12, 2017 at 2:44 pm

    Not a bad article. Though I feel like it is pretty generic. I’m a taller player at 6’3″. However, my arms and legs are short for my height-(72″ arm span, 30″ inseam”). So for example, the section referring to club length….. someone who is 10″ taller will also generally have longer arms which would offset the height difference somewhat. Also, someone like me who is taller but has shorter legs, doesn’t have the same issues with lower body instability as someone who has the typical leg length.

    • Mat

      Oct 12, 2017 at 3:54 pm

      Agreed. Let’s do the same calculation by Wingspan:Height ratio.

    • 2putttom

      Oct 12, 2017 at 8:47 pm

      Kurt your nick name shall be T Rex :~)

  17. Matt

    Oct 12, 2017 at 12:39 pm

    Gotta love golf. Still to this day the most “egalitarian” sport physically. Which is why golfers are the most talented athletes on Earth. We have basically the entire world population to compete against. Those other sports have about 3% of the population to contend with. The reason is so much force in a golf shot comes from the player’s athletic ability to deliver a large spring into the back of the ball. If coordinated enough a relatively “weak” athlete like Justin Thomas (I am comparing him to what is required to even be on the gridiron or baseball diamond), can leverage a golf club and hit the ball further than those much larger. Its athleticism to use a golf club properly, but the club is a huge equalizer. A baseball bat does not flex much, its basically brute force with all the energy coming purely from the body. Football and basketball have obvious physical limitations, with basketball so ridiculous is almost funny – literally freaks of nature. How many 6’9″ people do you see, you could literally go weeks in a big city and not spot one, not to mention 7′ or something).

  18. Tommy

    Oct 12, 2017 at 12:09 pm

    I’ve said all this for years. With their short irons, taller players can have trouble even reaching the ball properly. Look at Keegan Bradley, how he’s all bent over and contorted to reach it properly. It’s very tough to fit a taller person with club length…almost impossible for someone with longer legs.

    • C

      Oct 12, 2017 at 2:45 pm

      Pretty sure Keegan is properly fit into his clubs. That’s just his stance and swing.

    • Scott

      Oct 13, 2017 at 10:05 am

      I will say the difficultly in fitting taller amateur players is the day to day variation in the address position which causes a number of the items discussed in the article. I am about 6′ 1″ or so with a very long wing span. I have difficultly maintaining what I feel is a proper address on a day to day basis. Just something that needs to be worked through

  19. Greg V

    Oct 12, 2017 at 11:49 am

    In the days of persimmon, it was helpful to be “closer to your work.” Look at players such as Tom Watson, Lanny Wadkins, Ben Crenshaw. Even Jack Nicklaus was only 5′ 10″. Now that 460 cc drivers are the norm, and good lightweight graphite shafts make longer clubs more feasible, golfers up to 6’2″ or 6’3″ are still plenty close to their work.

    • Bruce Ferguson

      Oct 12, 2017 at 1:25 pm

      I’m 6’3″. As the the argument of longer limbs giving an advantage, I can’t say. I can say that, in my experience, a big reason I don’t play blade-sized irons is that they look so tiny from my height. If I were 5’9″ or shorter, I might be more confident playing a compact iron head. I might also fit better in some of those sports cars I fancy . . .

  20. Ryan

    Oct 12, 2017 at 11:45 am

    Average height of an American male is 5’9”. Only Brian Harmon is shorter. Everyone else is average or above… feels like a correlation to me.

    • C

      Oct 12, 2017 at 1:29 pm

      Came here to say this.

    • Dan

      Oct 13, 2017 at 1:20 pm

      I was going to pint this exact thing out. The average American male is 5’9″ now, and back when I was a kid it was 5’7″, that was when Jack playing so even then he was 3″ above the norm. I think there is no doubt height is an advantage, it’s hard to ignore physics and those extra lever lengths help. Two people of exactly the same intrinsic skill, will perform differently because of the physics involved if they are different in height, or other dimension. Comparing the top golfers with average height shows that most are above average, and if you look at women’s golf this evidence becomes even more profound.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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