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Is Rory too jacked for his own good? A definitive answer

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Most men would kill — but not hit the gym — to have Rory McIlroy’s physique. Since he burst onto the golf scene nearly a decade ago with a mediocre build, the Northern Irishman has transformed his body into one worthy of a Men’s Health Magazine cover.

One thing Rory didn’t shed, however, were his critics.

Several members of the golf media have recently voiced their pointed opinions about Rory’s beefed up body. Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee went public with his worries early in 2016, saying “it does give me a little concern when I see the extensive weightlifting that Rory is doing in the gym.”

McIlroy famously shrugged off Chamblee with this unforgettable response:

NBC golf analyst Johnny Miller joined the attack during the 2016 British Open. While explaining why Rory hasn’t won more majors (he’s stuck at a lowly four, double Miller’s career total if anybody’s counting).

“I think he overdid the weight room,” Miller said. “I don’t think that helped him at all. Same thing with Tiger Woods. You just get carried away with wearing the tight shirts and showing off their muscles.” 

Golf Magazine columnist Alan Shipnuck also has an opinion on the matter, recently firing off this tweet regarding the muscle madness on Tour:

If you didn’t already know who Rory McIlroy is before reading this, based on these criticisms, you might assume he’s a washed-up meathead who can’t put a coordinated swing on a golf ball. And like Chamblee, Miller, and Shipnuck, you’d be dead wrong.

Despite the fact that his major championship “slump” sits at nine events without a win heading into the 2017 U.S. Open, and a nagging rib injury that has kept him on the sidelines for much of the year, Rory holds the No. 2 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. How can this be, you ask, given Rory’s dedication to the gym? Golf fitness expert Carolina Romero, the woman behind the social media persona the Fit Golfer Girl, uses a simple formula to explain.

“When we think about the ability to hit the ball and generate swing speed, force equals mass times acceleration,” she says. “When Rory was tiny … he didn’t really have a lot of mass, he had to accelerate his little body a lot,” Romero told my At The Turn podcast, referring to McIlroy’s physique when he was noticeably less muscular toward the beginning of his professional career.

“This was actually hurting his lower back,” she said. “This was not exactly good for longevity. If he’s going to continue to play for many, many years … he needs to make sure that he continues to generate these speeds without putting so much pressure on his body. If he just increases his muscle mass a little bit, he’s going to be able to reach that same amount of force — meaning his same distances and his same speeds — with a lot less acceleration, which is going to put less stress on his body.”

To refute the critics even more, Romero goes on to explain that the added muscle Rory has built might actually do more to preserve his career than damage it.

“Even if his mass is a little bit higher, this is actually going to protect his back and his body and give him longevity in the sport,” she said.

Rory’s longevity remains to be seen, but his results speak for themselves. With four majors and a No. 2 world ranking, there’s no need for McIlroy to defend himself on Twitter… but it’s quite entertaining when he does.

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Nick Heidelberger writes about all things related to golf, from the world's best players to the weekend warriors, although he can only relate to the latter. When he's not writing or golfing, Nick co-hosts the @AtTheTurnPod, hikes with his dogs and roots for his wife's soccer team. Twitter: @njheidelberger

52 Comments

52 Comments

  1. Someone

    Jun 17, 2017 at 12:28 am

    The article is poorly written because he just restates what he quoted.

    On another note everything is relative. In the world of golfers, Rory could be considered jacked because of his muscle mass. Compared to long driver champs, no way. Compared to body builders and powerlifters, nah. But again, putting it into perspective, compared to most golfers he’s pretty jacked. Ripped on the other hand is another story. Ripped is definition and lean. Villegas is absolutely the most ripped player on tour. Is he jacked? Not really, considering his muscular toning, he’s more ripped than he is jacked. Yes that is possible.

    Those making the comparison of a golfer to a jacked football player, are comparing bananas to pineapples…they’re not even remotely related when it comes to golf and being “jacked.”

    Write something new next time. Don’t just re-summarize past events and then quote them to be redundant. If you’re gonna write an article, do it the way Johnny miller thinks golf anchors should commentate. Don’t be afraid to make your own speculations about things and possibly be wrong. It’s not interesting if you wait until AFTER the shot and just comment on what happened. There’s no need for a sportscaster if all you do is repeat what we just saw. Be intersting. Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t think he’ll make this putt.” When they do, just say “oh, well I guess I was wrong.”

  2. EddieEdwards

    Jun 15, 2017 at 9:33 am

    Nobody on the pro tour is jacked. Jason Zuback is, and he doesn’t seem to have any flexibility issues.

  3. cgasucks

    Jun 14, 2017 at 10:09 pm

    I bet 10 years from now Rory will be pulled over by cops in Northern Ireland in the middle of the night for driving under the influence of all the painkillers he took to deal with his injuries from weightlifting from years past…

    • Quinn

      Jun 15, 2017 at 11:57 am

      Funny how Gary Player has been a fitness advocate his whole life, known for “weightlifting” and he is still very fit and strong at the age of 80 years old. He still trains 4 to 5 times a week and iss much better off than Jack Nicklaus physically at an old age. But you don’t seem to include him in this discussion. Who’s to say that Tiger wouldn’t have had these problems regardless if he weight lifted or not? More than likely its genetic and he would have had those problems regardless due to the strain he puts on his lower back with his swing. Without weight lifting he would have been worse off.

      • peter collins

        Jun 16, 2017 at 3:57 pm

        good post

        • stephen smith

          Apr 8, 2023 at 9:30 pm

          Weight training is fine. Lifting extra heavy dead weights that change your body is so wrong for golf. Feel, flexibility, and quick strength, are the keys to good golf. What? A slimmer, less muscled version of Tiger winning the U.S. Open by 15 strokes is not good enough???

  4. Quinn

    Jun 14, 2017 at 12:14 pm

    One thing nobody ever talks about and is the fact that working out and building up your physique actually helps you mentally in the sense that you become more confident which directly translates to the golf course. The idea that working out and building muscle hurts your game is ridiculous, no you do not become less flexible, quite the opposite actually it can allow you to become more flexible as long as you stretch. If your muscles grow too big to properly swing the golf club then yes it could have an impact but nobody on tour has this problem and certainly not Rory. Building up muscle will help prevent injury and you will deal with less joint issues, muscle and strength training helps with this. I’ve had knee problems since I was a teenager due to damaging my meniscus and my knee would pop out of socket frequently. But ever since I’ve built up the muscle in my legs with squats and leg workouts I’ve never felt better. Working out will help you no matter what anybody says, its ridiculous to think otherwise. I would say one thing you have to be aware of is not to be too tight from a workout and be aware when to workout so as not to affect the day you play. But a lot of times even in Tiger’s case he said when he was younger he was too loose and I can agree with that because I’ve personally felt/seen that.

  5. Jacked_Loft

    Jun 14, 2017 at 10:45 am

    14 months ago I weighed 125 lbs at 5 foot 4, now I weigh 150 lbs and have put on 25 lbs of muscle with only the help of free weights and body weight exercises.

    14 months ago I had to swing out of my shoes to get a 100 mph driver headspeed, now I just have to effortlessly turn and release to reach 102 mph.

    As I don’t have the leverage of someone 6 ft tall, I have to produce head speed by createing more torque through larger muscle mass. It took me a while to stop forcing but now it’s easy-peasy just to let go.

    I look good, feel good and haven’t had an injury all season. At 58 I’m quite happy with the change.

    If the guys want to workout and play it’s ok with me.

  6. Matt

    Jun 14, 2017 at 3:56 am

    Good on Rory for taking care of himself (it doesn’t take much to look ripped next to all the overweight PGA players). Ripped gym junky he ain’t.

  7. Z

    Jun 14, 2017 at 2:52 am

    He ain’t ripped, whatch’all talking about? He’s a shrimp! Make him wear some baggy shirts and not them skintight swimsuit shirts, you’ll see how he’s really not ripped at all.

  8. JThunder

    Jun 13, 2017 at 8:55 pm

    It’s awesome how people here know more about training and physical fitness than the top golfers in the world, their coaches, and all the trainers in professional sports and the PGA Tour. Congratulations! Seems like you should ply your advanced knowledge to put some of these people out of work and turn Rory, Tiger, etc, into the perfectly fitted athletes that you know you can sculpt. Or are you all wealthy and busy enough already?

    Your superior skills and knowledge are wasted in comments sections of blogs. The real world is just like the internet, only taller.

  9. Brian

    Jun 13, 2017 at 7:59 pm

    Sure…force = mass X acceleration…however, the mass in this equation is in the golf club, not the human that is producing the acceleration.

    • H

      Jun 13, 2017 at 8:26 pm

      But the body has to be able to support those mass and acceleration, otherwise you won’t get solid contact with proper momentum (mass X velocity), therefore if you’re weak like you are, you can’t get distance fnar fnar

  10. toyzrx

    Jun 13, 2017 at 6:19 pm

    Golf is a game, not really a sport. You don’t have to be powerful, fast, or even fit to play the game well. Golf has become all of a sudden cool in the media world since mid 90s. Today, the game is not what it used it be – for kids and older people who cannot play other real sports. So I guess the top guys need to look like real athletes. It’s the image thing I guess. They need to be good models for the apparel their sponsors are trying to sell.

    • Brandon

      Jun 14, 2017 at 9:46 am

      sport

      /spôrt/

      noun

      noun: sport; plural noun: sports

      1. an activity involving physical exertion and skill in which an individual or team competes against another or others for entertainment.

      Navigating undulating and changing terrain, spinning and placing the ball for positioning for the next shot, etc. Are you sure it’s not a sport? 300+ yard drives, hitting high 185 yard 5 and 6 irons from 2-5 inch rough is pretty physical, and the skill set necessary to compete at the highest level. It’s funny when people say golf isn’t a sport just because we don’t run or they believe that the physical exertion isn’t as high as other sports yet the same top tier athletes that are so great at their sports can’t beat the majority of amateurs that play this GAME.

      • ComeyforPresident

        Jun 14, 2017 at 9:50 am

        Agreed. Anyone who has seen a pro hit balls in real life will realize the difference between the individuals “game” and the pros “sport”.

    • Brandon

      Jun 14, 2017 at 9:54 am

      oh and about being fit or fast, so what exactly is Curling or Table Tennis or competitive shooting or archery, are they not sports? I guess the big 5 are the only real sports, American Football, Basketball, Hockey, Soccer, and Baseball maybe even Cricket? Well Basketball and Baseball are debatable, if you are 6’9 – 7’2 with no coordination, you can get into the NBA nowadays as long as you can get 4 rebounds, 3 points and 1 block a game even though you can’t jump higher than a frog and everybody else outrun’s you down the floor and I guess baseball isn’t either when the most recent Triple Crown winner looks like all he did was sat around and ate donuts all the time.

  11. NolanMBA

    Jun 13, 2017 at 6:12 pm

    Well say what you want but theres like 19ish majors between TW, Rory and Day so… Hard to ignore that.

  12. ooffa

    Jun 13, 2017 at 2:52 pm

    Yes he is. It will be a short while before he starts breaking down just like Tiger.
    The steroids will take their toll.

    • H

      Jun 13, 2017 at 8:25 pm

      You would know from shooting up every day making your johnson really tiny, eh, you need a tweezer?

      • ooffa

        Jun 14, 2017 at 6:33 am

        Your lady seemed pretty happy with it last night.

  13. brian

    Jun 13, 2017 at 2:06 pm

    good grief what has the golf world come to…we consider a guy who is 5 foot 9 and weight 165 to be jacked. No wonder other athletes make fun of us! Not even in the realm of muscular, let alone jacked. Rory and Day just keep wearing shmedium size clothes, not getting jacked

    • chinchbugs

      Jun 13, 2017 at 4:12 pm

      +1

    • Dr Troy

      Jun 13, 2017 at 9:07 pm

      Brian- finally someone with a little common sense in regards to this topic. “Jacked” @ 165-170lbs is downright laughable. You wanna see jacked? Watch the NFL or open a muscle and fitness mag.

    • Large chris

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:03 pm

      I’ve stood next to him a couple of times and I think even 5’9 is pushing it…. 5’7 is more likely. He’s tiny.

  14. li0scc0

    Jun 13, 2017 at 1:47 pm

    The problem is these golfers are injuring themselves with improper lifting techniques. They are utilizing ballistic movements such as Crossfit, plyometrics, and Olympic Weightlifting which have far higher rates of injury. If you notice, the golfers who lift are those who are the most injured (Dustin Johnson, Rory, Tiger, Jason Day, etc.).
    As an athletic trainer, I always had athletes implement Powerlifting techniques with a focus on strength, not size. Such techniques have low injury rates and shield the body from sports related injury.

  15. Dave

    Jun 13, 2017 at 12:39 pm

    I love all of these people who think they can diagnose Rory’s golf “problems” (as the world number 2, it’s debatable that he even has any golf problems). How would anyone be able to tell for sure that his weightlifting has negatively affected his golf game? Jordan Spieth’s performance has dropped off considerably since 2015, and he hasn’t been bulking up in the gym. What do the “experts” have to say about his “struggles on the golf course”?

    The simple truth is that golf is just an incredibly difficult game to play consistently at the highest level. Tiger made it look easy by dominating the game for nearly 10 years, and people who know absolutely nothing about golf expect other players to be able to do the same with ease. Well, it doesn’t work like that, and there really is no issue here to be discussed.

  16. Judge Smells

    Jun 13, 2017 at 11:29 am

    Justin Thomas is on the pop tarts and xbox routine doing just fine

  17. Shambles

    Jun 13, 2017 at 11:18 am

    Actually, he’s not that ripped. If you can find a recent photo of him with his shirt off while on vacation, you can see that he is not ripped like some of the long-drive guys at all. It only appears that way because of the shirts he wears and the designs that make it seem like he has massive pecks and thick arms. But he’s actually quite svelte, he’s only 5’9″ at 165, and his arms are about as normal for a fit guy at his height and weight. When he plays, he’s quite limber and knows how to stretch every muscle to get the speed he generates.

  18. Dj

    Jun 13, 2017 at 11:13 am

    Do people honestly think he’s jacked??? He’s posted pics with his shirt off.. certainly not jacked. He put on a little muscle and tone, that’s all.

  19. Notbuyingit

    Jun 13, 2017 at 10:45 am

    I think someone forgot to tell Olympic gymnasts that you can’t be muscular and flexible…

    • TR1PTIK

      Jun 13, 2017 at 11:11 am

      My point exactly (if it will ever post). Rory is no bigger than any male gymnast I’ve ever seen. It’s all about HOW you train in the gym. The idea that adding mass = less flexibility is a generalization that needs to be stopped. Sitting on your @$$ in a desk chair behind a computer keyboard all day = less flexibility!

    • Brian

      Jun 13, 2017 at 7:57 pm

      Gymnasts don’t do much weight lifting. Their bodies are built almost entirely from body weight exercises.

  20. Teaj

    Jun 13, 2017 at 10:35 am

    This is just my uneducated opinion here so be gentle. Is it the swing before and at impact that is where damage is inflicted on the body or is it the follow through and the body having to stop the rotation of the swing? If the latter and Player A does not work out and swings at 110mph and player B does work out and has the same 110mph swing I would assume player B’s muscular frame will be better equipped to handle the forces generated by the golf swing, that is true unless Player B has worked out to the point that the muscles are fatigued then this could have the adverse effect and more impact and force would now be put on the skeletal structure in turn causing more injuries to joints.

    Now take into consideration if player A and B have the same weight club player B would most likely be able to swing the club at a faster speed (I know there are other aspects to the swing that can effect speed) but for the sake of argument player B should be able to swing faster in turn the forces to stop the swing need to be larger which run the risk of (possibly) being transferred to the skeletal structure.

    I am not sure I understand the effect of a golfer having more mass being able to hit the ball farther, I am sure some of this added weight is transferred into the swing but at a very small percentage would be transferred to the head of the club. Now if the club head has more mass I can see how this would compress a ball more given the same swing speed which could effect ball speed as long as this has not increased backspin.

  21. Benny Frank the 3rd

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:41 am

    Citing “social media persona Fit Golfer Girl” as an expert – wow!
    This is not an article this is a quick google search of what some people have said on this subject. No own research on the subject, no direct statements from the people involved and no laid out arguments for any thesis, antithesis – not speaking of synthesis. This is a clickbaiting waste of time. Shame on you!

  22. Daym

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:34 am

    The lack of understanding of exercise physiology and how it relates directly to the golf swing, from your expert, is laughable. There are undoubtedly workouts and exercises that will increase a golfers ability to work his/her swing.

    That said however, immobility from mass is a common issue among professional athletes. Take Dwight Howard for instance…the guy is massive and naturally so, but, his mass has limited him on the court for years. Every team he’s played on has had that concern, and still do. Now, if he were in the NFL, the story would be different. The point remains though, that mass doesn’t necessarily create power. Speed creates power, at least as it relates to golf. Adding large amounts of mass restricts mobility – look at your nearest beefcake in the gym tomorrow – and it actually can limit speed.

    Rory working out is NOT the issue. It’s how he’s working out that is the issue. Factually speaking, the muscles of the lower back are small muscle groups, and even combined together, they’re still a small group. When those muscles are stressed from having to carry the added mass (muscle weighs more than fat) from the upper back muscles, that’s when problems start to develop. And we’ve seen that time and again…

    Think back to the last world number 1 before Tiger’s reign, David Duvall. Somewhat chubby, but loose and limber. Now, think back to when he went on the fitness/working out train. It destroyed his back and body, and he’s admitted that himself. His career essentially ended because of injuries.

    We’ve seen it with El Tigre, as well. Make no mistake, Tiger’s back issues are almost directly a result of the violence of his swing and the added mass he has to carry. That creates uneven “push & pull” duties to all the muscles and that’s when tears and rips start happening.

    The real question is, did Jack look like that? What about Gary Player? Tom Watson? Arnold Palmer? Seve? Trevino? Any of the historical greats of the game? There’s a reason they didn’t, and it’s not because there wasn’t weights to do it. Arnold Schwartzenegger and Reg Park were in their primes in those guys’ hay days. The methodology was there, however, those guys understood that being limber is better, especially in golf.

    I have been saying for years that what golfers should be doing is stuff like Yoga, Pilates, Tabata, or other techniques that work around keeping the weight down, the tone in the middle (not too ripped) and flexibility high. Guys that are doing deadlifts and working with heavy weights, are eventually going to limit themselves. This is obvious to most exercise physiologists…..myself included.

    • Greg V

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:13 am

      This is an excellently written reply.

      Johnny Miller was another guy who bulked up and ruined his golf game. Chopping wood, or something like that if I remember.

      Nicklaus was pretty darn smart. He played (and continues to play) tennis to stay in shape.

    • dapadre

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:23 am

      I cannot refute anything you are saying but would like to add that I think the main issue is how theier swing needs to ADJUST to their new body which is the issue. When you put on muscle, you usually loose flexibility and that is the trade-off.

    • mike

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:33 am

      In the golf swing speed will always be king, and some obtain that through strength, if we look at the longest hitters in the world on the long drive circuit they are massive guys, but if you are not 6’6 and have the body able to support that mass I have always loved jamie sadlowski’s swing/physique for its ability to produce incredible amounts of speed in a body that doesnt need to be 300 lbs. He is great shape but in ways that help his golf swing like flexibility and balance to control that fast motion vs mass that would slow his body down. Could be incredibly wrong but that’s my 2 cents.

    • TR1PTIK

      Jun 13, 2017 at 11:06 am

      I’m not an expert, but I’ve done extensive reading on the subject of bodybuilding and athletic training to know that your generalization of what added mass does to an athlete is absolutely false. Added mass can restrict a golfer’s ability to swing freely, but only if he/she does not incorporate mobility, flexibility, and myofascial release exercises into the program. From what I can tell, Rory is no bigger than a high school or budding collegiate gymnast. He’s no bodybuilder. What everyone always seem to ignore is the fact that Rory is working with a personal trainer and his programming focuses primarily on making him a more complete and balanced athlete. The issues Rory had with his back are well noted and if you did a quick search you would also learn that he originally had stability issues in his legs (primarily his non-dominant side). The goal of his training (as it should be for any athlete) has always been to improve the areas in which he has the most issues. There may be some things he has done solely for the purpose of physical appearance, but none I can see which are cause for any concern. His training (and that of almost any other pro-golfer) is a world away from what Tiger was doing.

    • Tal

      Jun 13, 2017 at 11:19 am

      Perfect response!

    • Jonathan

      Jun 15, 2017 at 11:29 am

      Agreed on the Pilates, Yoga.

      There’s an element of machismo in how golfer’s work out. Dead lifts, Squats, Bench presses are macho. Stretching, flexibility regimes like Yoga are not macho.

      It’s the same as Driving versus Short game. Bombing the driver 300+ yards is macho. 3 foot putts and chipping are not. But they all count the same on the scorecard.

      Ask any Pro if they would rather a mediocre long game with a tour best short game or a tour best driving distance with a mediocre short game, they would always stump for the superior short game.

      Any intelligent golfer recognizes that. As they also recognize that routines that focus primarily on increasing flexibility, limberness etc are far more important are more appropriate for their longevity than heavy compound lifting and their risk of getting career stifling injuries.

  23. stevie

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:20 am

    key Q: does it effect his putting touch?, which needs improvement apparently.

  24. Patricknorm

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:19 am

    I’m okay with Rory getting stronger to a point. Everyone has a particular build (meso, ecto, endo) based on their genetics. There is a point of diminishing return and it happened to Tiger where his joints could handle the torque from his swing. Something has to give whether it’s your knees, back or ankles.
    Golfers do strength training to prevent injuries and if they get a little stronger then it’s a bonus. I always believe the focus on strength training should always be core related. It’s not important to squat or bench or dead lift massive amounts unless your a power lifter. Golf is a pretty violent rotational movement and when core muscles are stressed, something has to give.
    Finally it’s easy to get addicted to the gym. Especially when those muscles get bigger. Like I mentioned earlier, there is a point of diminishing return.

  25. mr b

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:08 am

    People that criticize professional golfer’s weight lifting routines are simply misinformed. end of story.

    • gvogelsang

      Jun 13, 2017 at 7:12 pm

      Weight lifting is the “easy” way to try to get in better shape, but not the best. Playing a different sport, like tennis, or squash, would improve fitness and not put on unnecessary muscle bulk. And then we have Camilo Villegas who takes long bike rides for fitness. I would endorse that.

      Rory, statistically, was a little longer before the gym routine. I can see some moderate weight work to protect his back, but the bulk in the shoulders and biceps is totally unnecessary for a golfer. For a golfer, all you need is the strength in the upper body to maintain width. The force comes from the core and legs. One can keep that in shape through cross training – tennis, squash, bicycling, stand up paddling. Heavy weights are unproductive. But, they are addictive.

      Rory was a better, more natural golfer before the weight room.

      • Steve

        Jun 14, 2017 at 12:22 am

        Maybe, just maybe, he has realized there’s more to life than just golfing… Maybe he likes lifting weights and likes the way it makes him look/feel…

        • Steve

          Jun 14, 2017 at 12:24 am

          Also, he used to do the “other sport” route as well… and then he seriously messed up his ankle playing soccer… Seems like lifting is the safer option for him.

        • gvogelsang

          Jun 15, 2017 at 9:00 pm

          He was a better golfer when he was pudgy.

          So was Bobby Jones, and Jack Nicklaus. When you are a golfer who can hit the crap out of the ball, and score better than everyone else, you shouldn’t mess with what Mother Nature gave you.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

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The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old. 

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades. 

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event. 

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions. 

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

  • 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
  • 2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
  • 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
  • 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
  • 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
  • 2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Shane Lowry (+1.25)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
  3. Jordan Smith (+1.05)
  4. Tom Hoge (+.96)
  5. Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship. 

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+.90)
  4. Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
  5. Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

  1. Jon Rahm (+2.56)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
  3. Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
  4. Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
  5. Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds: 

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
  5. Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event. 

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
  2. Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens. 

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
  2. Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
  3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
  4. Justin Rose (+0.93)
  5. J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds: 

  1. Justin Thomas (+1.53)
  2. Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
  4. Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
  5. Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%). 

  1. Brooks Koepka
  2. Xander Schauffele
  3. Rory McIlroy
  4. Scottie Scheffler
  5. Bryson DeChambeau
  6. Shane Lowry
  7. Alex Noren
  8. Will Zalatoris
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Keith Mitchell
  11. Hideki Matsuyama
  12. Billy Horschel
  13. Patrick Cantlay
  14. Viktor Hovland
  15. Adam Schenk
  16. Chris Kirk
  17. Sahith Theegala
  18. Min Woo Lee
  19. Joaquin Niemann
  20. Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024. 

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

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In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

More from the Wedge Guy

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

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The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year. 

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child. 

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

  • 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
  • 2022: Max Homa (-8)
  • 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
  • 2019: Max Homa (-15)
  • 2018: Jason Day (-12)
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
  • 2016: James Hahn (-9)
  • 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult. 

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.01)
  4. Shane Lowry (+0.93)
  5. Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
  5. Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard. 

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

  1. Cameron Young (28’2″)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
  4. Sam Burns (+30’6″)
  5. Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week. 

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
  3. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Taylor Moore (+0.82)
  2. Nick Dunlap (+.76)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+.69)
  4. Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
  5. Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow. 

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

  1. Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
  2. Justin Thomas (+1.96)
  3. Jason Day (+1.92)
  4. Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
  5. Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

  1. Wyndham Clark
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Xander Schauffele
  4. Shane Lowry
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Viktor Hovland 
  7. Cameron Young
  8. Austin Eckroat 
  9. Byeong Hun An
  10. Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024. 

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week. 

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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