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Opinion & Analysis

How To Golf With Strangers And Leave With Friends

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Several years back I was playing golf in Hilton Head while on my college spring break. My girlfriend at the time (now my wife) was enjoying a day at the spa, and I snuck over to play Hilton Head National, which I’d saved up for a few months to play. I booked a tee time for around 10 a.m. and did not have a playing partner.

When I arrived at the clubhouse, the pro said he’d pair me with a group of three couples. He told me the women were going to play together and the men were going to play separate and that I could join the men. “Perfect,” I told him.

My new group and I made our way over to the first tee, and I was riding with the oldest man in the group. As he drove the cart from the opening tee box to find his ball, he began asking me about myself. I told him I was on vacation with my girlfriend and she was enjoying her day in the spa. When I told him I was from Kentucky, he gave me a glare that sort of inflicted fear. Then he tipped his sunglasses to the bridge of his nose and looked at me for what seemed like 10 minutes. Then he grinned and slid them back up.

“I’m from Chapel Hill,” he said. “And I help sponsor the golf team at UNC.” I laughed, and he got out to hit his shot.

A few holes later we were talking about the college experience and how I wished I could play more golf, but my grades couldn’t handle it. I hit my approach to the sixth or seventh hole, and when I got back in the cart, he reached his hand out for a handshake. When I shook his hand, I could feel a piece of paper. He held my hand for a moment, and he said, “You know, I like you, kid. I want you to take this and put it behind a picture of your girlfriend. That way, you’ll never be broke. When things get down, just take her to dinner.”

“Ok, I will,” I said. I didn’t look at the bill and stuck it in my pocket. When I got done with the round and made it to my car, I pulled it out of my pocket for the first time. It was a hundred dollar bill. I nearly cried.

As you read this article, know that I’m not saying you need to give everybody you meet on the golf course $100. What I am saying is that there’s a way to play this game with strangers and leave a positive lasting impression. Maybe you’ll even make a lifelong friend.

Here are five tips for turning strangers into friends on the course.

Make Small Talk Early

In 2012, I played a little nine-hole course outside of Tacoma, Washington, called American Lake Veterans Course. The course didn’t take tee times, and there were free golf balls for all who played. As my buddy and I waited in line at the first tee to begin play, two men approached the tee box. We stood off to the side as an older gentleman set up to the golf ball, and the other stood behind him, giving directions. “Little left, little more, little bit more. Alright, you’re good,” the navigator said.

Another man, who donned a straw hat, noticed our attention to the pair and walked over. The older gentleman hit a drive down the left side of the fairway and his partner picked up the tee.

“They are father and son,” the man in the straw hat told us. “The father is legally blind, even with glasses, and his son plays with him three times a week. He lines him up on every shot.” Talk about being flabbergasted.

Be nice and make small talk as soon as you have an opening. It doesn’t necessarily have to be on the first tee box, but if it is, it sets the mood quickly.

My buddy and I ended up playing with the man in the straw hat, and we had a blast. In that situation, we didn’t do anything other than reciprocating small talk, which is the key to getting off on the right foot with strangers.

Be nice and make small talk as soon as you have an opening. It doesn’t necessarily have to be on the first tee box, but if it is, it sets the mood quickly. In golf, there’s a good chance the small talk will take a more in-depth turn soon. Enjoy it, share your worldview if it comes up, but be polite.

If you’re a naturally quiet person, this is a time to try and get out of your shell. Golf is a game of vulnerability; take advantage of the time when you’re out in the open and foster these potential relationships. You never know when you’ll meet someone who sticks with you for years to come.

Avoid Gambling If Possible

You can find a $2 Nassau at most any golf course on a Saturday morning. You’ll never know if the strangers in your group have a moral affliction to gambling, though, so avoid betting unless they bring it up. If they bring it up, and it’s something you’re comfortable with, feel free to join. You might lose a couple of bucks, but you might also break the ice instantly and become part of the group. Or at least it will open it up for more conversation, which is the ultimate goal.

If you do land yourself in a bet, don’t settle the score on the 18th green. It slows down the clearing of the green for the group behind you, and the main thing on the last green should be hand shaking and pleasantries. Pay up in the parking lot. If you win the bet, don’t ask for the money; if they forget, let it go. It’s only a couple bucks. If you lose, pay promptly before loading your bag to leave.

Be Relaxed With The Rules

We all have that friend who starts a stopwatch when you begin looking for a stray tee shot. If you’re that guy, don’t be… at least when you’re playing with strangers. Friendly games are just that; they’re friendly. When you’re playing with strangers, nobody wants to be hassled about whether or not they can take one or two club lengths after an unplayable. Nobody wants to be told, “Hey, you’re supposed to play the ball as it lies” as they’re moving a ball off a root. The rules of golf are complicated, and while they’re currently under some review to remove some of that complexity, it’s easy for situations to become unnecessarily convoluted on the golf course.

If you’re playing with a group of strangers and someone asks your opinion on a rules situation they are in, be honest, but don’t hold their feet to the fire. They are likely seeking your honest opinion, but they don’t need someone to cite the rule for them. Just tell them how you’d play it if you were playing by yourself and move on. A good way to approach rules situations with strangers is never giving your opinion unsolicited.

Control Your Emotions

I have played Chambers Bay twice. Both times were amazing. The first time I played my buddy and I took a caddie, which was a great choice. As we made our way to the first tee, the starter informed us we’d be playing with two other guys who played Chambers a lot. We approached the tee and shook hands with them. It was immediately strange because they were sharing a bag.

At that moment it became clear to us that the clubs belonged to the player who had not thrown the club.

We didn’t think much of it because it wasn’t our business, and they seemed nice enough. The front nine started fine as my buddy and I had an internal match and the other guys sort of did their own thing. On the fourth tee box, one of the other guys in the group hit a tee shot, topping it about 10 feet in front of him. He looked around and put another ball down. He topped the second ball, too, and out of nowhere threw the driver about 50 feet to the side of the tee box. Everybody froze. Our caddies just looked at us and made that I-have-no-idea-what-to-do face.

At that moment it became clear that the clubs belonged to the player who had not thrown the club. The two men got into an argument right there on the tee box. All these years later, it’s funny, but we did not leave the 18th green as friends with those guys.

Control your emotions if you tend to be a hot head on the golf course. The people you’re playing with don’t need to see you throwing clubs or dropping “F” bombs. Relax and enjoy the company.

Be Authentic

It’s easy to try and be something you’re not when you think you’ll never see someone again. It’s not a knock on your character; it’s human nature. But if you’re the kind of person who likes to make friends on the golf course, then the quickest way to do that is to be yourself. I’ve played golf with a lot of people in the last 10 years. Like most people, I can tell when someone isn’t being genuine. It’s not only annoying, but it’s uncomfortable. Not everyone will be your best friend, but you’ll never know if you’ve ruined the chance at a great friendship if you try and be someone you’re not.

With the heart of the golf season approaching soon, there will be a lot of folks crowding up tee times in the next few weeks. I’m sure you’ve already got your local games lined up with the people you pick on constantly, but if you find yourself out and about with a last-minute tee time, make the most of those people you’ve never met before. You never know if one of them could be someone that changes your life.

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Adam Crawford is a writer of many topics but golf has always been at the forefront. An avid player and student of the game, Adam seeks to understand both the analytical side of the game as well as the human aspect - which he finds the most important. You can find his books at his website, chandlercrawford.com, or on Amazon.

27 Comments

27 Comments

  1. Darryl

    Mar 30, 2017 at 8:00 am

    One of the best articles I’ve read on here. I have met a lot of really good friends on the course, guys I enjoy socialising with outside golf as well. Of all the social recreational endeavours one can pursue in life, I always find golf one of the best ways to make a friend, primarily because people who play on their own of an evening are golf nuts and right away you have that common ground and it means that you will both most likely be of a similar mindset with very similar lifestyles.

  2. Sam

    Mar 27, 2017 at 10:36 am

    The photo, do people really do that on the course?

    • Double Mocha Man

      Mar 29, 2017 at 4:22 pm

      Sam, I do that every time I’m able to 2 putt for a par.

  3. Bob Jones

    Mar 27, 2017 at 10:31 am

    You meet strangers and right away be best friends for four hours. This is one of the things I love about golf.

  4. Double Mocha Man

    Mar 26, 2017 at 8:14 pm

    Speaking of small talk… a few years ago I was playing Pebble Beach with two strangers. On the 3rd tee I inquired where they were from. Louisville, Kentucky… around 1 million population. On a lark I asked if they knew Deborah Xxxxxx, my ex who I knew lived there. They both almost fell down. Both were good friends with her and her husband, hanging together and attending the same church, raising their children together! Over the course of the next 15 holes I learned a lot about my ex (hadn’t seen her in over 20 years… good woman) and I shared a few things they didn’t know about her… though I was careful how much I shared. I also learned there was a lot from her past she had never shared with them. Such as me! They didn’t know she had another marriage.

  5. Double Mocha Man

    Mar 26, 2017 at 7:58 pm

    I live north of Seattle near the Canadian border. I also often play a course near that border that attracts a lot of Canadian golfers crossing over. Some of the most interesting guys (and gals) I’ve met on the course are Canadian. Good folks.

  6. KK

    Mar 26, 2017 at 3:43 pm

    The word “friend” has lost all meaning nowadays.

    • Scott

      Apr 3, 2017 at 12:46 pm

      Lighten up. nobody said to invite them to your house for dinner.

  7. WolfWRX

    Mar 26, 2017 at 7:54 am

    Good article. I think it basically boils down to being a decent human being.

    I play as a single a lot and in my experience, people often don’t like being paired up with a stranger or someone they don’t know. I’m not sure if it’s nervousness about playing with someone new, but fairly frequently I’ll get the sense from at least one player in a group they are NOT happy about me joining them – usually on the first tee. That said, I try and be friendly and this attitude usually dissipates after the first few holes.

    • Mr. Replier Guy

      Mar 26, 2017 at 1:14 pm

      Glad to say I’ve never experienced this. I’m in Calif. so maybe it depends where you play.

  8. Cael

    Mar 26, 2017 at 1:25 am

    As I play with the over 60 group most of the time and play as a single a lot, I have found what is mentioned in this article 100% good advice. I have found that if you just play with the attitude I am going to enjoy the company today and let myself enjoy my own play good or bad it works out to be a fine day. For sure if you are younger and/or trying to build and improve your game you need to play alone or with others trying to do the same if you can.

  9. BD57

    Mar 25, 2017 at 10:09 pm

    Better yet – don’t get drunk on the golf course, period.

    Really not a good place for it, and when you’re done, someone’s going to be driving somewhere.

    • Adam Crawford

      Mar 25, 2017 at 10:43 pm

      Couldn’t agree more. I’m totally cool with people having a few drinks during a round. But the getting hammered just takes it too far.

  10. CdnAsian

    Mar 25, 2017 at 9:36 pm

    Knowing when to pick up. Nothing is worse is being on the green and watching your playing partner laying 8 or 9, trying to “salvage the hole”

  11. Philip

    Mar 25, 2017 at 8:55 pm

    If there are playing from a tee box you usually do not – just join them on their regular tee box – whether it is closer or farther than usually for you, unless of course you wish to be left alone.

    • madeinguam81

      Mar 25, 2017 at 11:17 pm

      I completely disagree with this. Play the tees that are appropriate for you, no matter what the rest of your group is playing. Doing so, doesn’t isolate you. You can still have a great conversation with others who play a different set of tees.

      I would argue in the case of playing a set of tees BACK from where you would normally play just to join the rest of the group, the others will most likely be thinking that you should be playing UP a set and that you will most likely slow them down. Not a good start.

      • Scott

        Apr 3, 2017 at 12:49 pm

        I 100% agree. Sure playing up a set of tees from where you normally play may be considered nice, but I still want to play the course that way I want to. And playing back too far could be embarrassing and frustrating for all involved.

  12. Golfyguy

    Mar 25, 2017 at 7:57 pm

    Good article. I started golfing as a single since I retired and really enjoy golfing with people I never met before. Golf gave me the chance to make some new acquaintances this way.

    • madeinguam81

      Mar 25, 2017 at 11:22 pm

      I’m in a similar but opposite boat as you. I started playing around 19 and one of the things I liked most was meeting new people, especially people I would never normally come in contact with. I played this local public course that had quite a bit of retirees and I often got paired with older guys in their 60s, 70s, and even 80s. I loved the stories and the overall social aspect of golf.

  13. Jonnythec

    Mar 25, 2017 at 1:39 pm

    Great article..it’s blows me away that dick heads always hit the shank button at the end. Let’s just remove that altogether. Keep up the good work.

    • izzlist of izzles

      Mar 25, 2017 at 3:02 pm

      It blows me away when people like jonny call other people names because they didn’t like something he liked.

  14. chinchbugs

    Mar 25, 2017 at 1:24 pm

    Next article…playing golf and influencing people…

  15. LaBraeGolfer

    Mar 25, 2017 at 10:37 am

    Playing through golf now at a golf course in the middle of nowhere today. Couldn’t get my buddies to go and I take every opportunity I can to get out. I like the comments just be respectful and hit the golf shots and don’t take forever and everything will go grand.

  16. Egor

    Mar 25, 2017 at 10:04 am

    No unsolicited advice.

    I’m a 3 year player, 12HI and was joined by another single on the second tee. Unusually and from the tips, I hit every fairway and a solid 230-260yds.
    On the 9th tee box, he said something like :
    “if there was one thing I’d tell you, slow down your tempo, your backswing is too fast”

    I wanted to respond with something like – “says the guy who hasn’t out driven me yet, missed3 fairways, and re-teed twice”

    I just said “oh, ok”.

    We really did have a great time and I’d welcome him to join me again, but I’ve learned in the 3 years I’ve played that you never offer swing advice to people you know without them explicitly asking, let alone to people you just met.

    • Bishop

      Mar 27, 2017 at 2:41 pm

      I couldn’t agree more with this. To me, there is nothing more aggravating than when someone gives advice on how I’m hitting the ball. It appears to me that there’s an inverse relationship between the amount of unsolicited advice, and the ability of the golfer. I have yet to meet a scratch golfer who will give me tips, but my friend the 30+ handicapper frequently chimes in with advice when I hit a ball offline.

      I also think this was one of the first things I learned when beginning golf four years ago. It should stand as general etiquette.

      • IHateLoveGolf

        Mar 28, 2017 at 2:13 pm

        I think I’m an outlier because I don’t mind when someone gives me a tip. I can’t see my swing and appreciate that they’d take the time (and the risk, apparently) to try to help me out. More often than not the tip is useful, even if it’s counter to what I’m trying to work on that day. If someone won’t shut about it on every hole, then that’s a different story but this game is hard enough – I’m fine with folks trying to make it a little easier for me.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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