Opinion & Analysis

The myth of playing to your handicap, and why it’s ruining your expectations

Published

8 years ago

Oct 17, 2016

When was the last time you came in from a round of golf, shooting four or five strokes higher than expected, and said, “Huh, that’s fine. Maybe I’ll do better next time.” For most of you reading this article, this rarely (if ever) happens. Why? Because you love golf, you’re competitive, and you expect to shoot a certain score every time out.

For many golfers, that score is defined by their handicap. As a fellow golfer, I can sympathize with lofty expectations, but where we need to look is the basis of your expectations and why typical thinking could lead to regular disappointment in your scoring.

You Are Not Your Handicap

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard players say, “I didn’t play to my handicap,” therefore insinuating they had a bad round. What does “playing to your handicap” actually mean, though? Well, if your course handicap is 10, then it means shooting 10 strokes over the course rating.

Take a course that’s a par-70 and has a course rating of 71.0. Playing to your handicap means shooting 81. Pretty simple. Now, keep in mind that the USGA handicap system uses the 10 best scores out of your last 20 to determine your current handicap. Therefore, the scores used to make up your handicap are a picture of your best golf. It does not take into account the times you had one of those days.

Imagine being a salesman and being evaluated on your best six months in the last year. That might be nice, right? But is it a picture of who you truly are as a salesman?

You Are Your Average

With an in-depth look at your score history, you can gain a clearer picture of where your game truly stands. In the real-life example below, I plotted a 10-handicapper’s scores on a course with a rating of 71.0. He had a range of scores from 76 to 90 and an average of 83.85.

This player’s score history is very typical of the majority of regular golfers out there. Most will have a spread of 12-15 strokes (better players usually have an even wider spread) and have roughly two thirds of their scores within 3-5 shots of the average.

Notice that this player has only played to his handicap five times! He has, however, scored average or better nine times out of the last 20 rounds and a fraction above average (84) three additional times. If his expectation is to play to his handicap or better every time out, he’s going to leave the golf course disappointed 75 percent of the time. With a better understanding of his average score, he’s more likely to accept an 83 or an 85 as it’s a more realistic expectancy of his game at this point in time.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting that players shouldn’t intend to play well. Having a clear intention of playing great golf is a fantastic way to begin any round. However, expecting to play our best and not accepting anything less can create a constant sense of frustration and actually keep players from playing to their potential more often.

Dr. Rick Jensen, a sports psychologist who has coached multiple men’s and women’s tour professionals to major championship victories, categorizes this as a “focus of energy problem,” which is often highlighted by unrealistic expectations that lead to anxiety and frustration.

“You can only play better than average half the time,” Dr. Jensen points out, which highlights an important fact. Your average score is the truest picture of your game. Don’t be the player who hides from the facts. Instead, put together a plan to improve.

Be Realistic and Look for Opportunities

An honest look at your scores can lead to an evaluation of why you’re shooting the numbers you are and where you have opportunities to shave off some strokes. Start viewing your average as the number you want to lower instead of your course handicap or handicap index. I recommend using a stat -tracking program, such as ShotbyShot.com, which will prioritize the area(s) where you need to focus in order to improve your average score.

If you choose to track your stats on your own, be sure to consider the following:

All missed fairways are not the same, as just tracking fairways hit or missed can be misleading. Are you driving it 3 yards into the rough or behind trees and into hazards? If you’re driving it in play, just not always in the fairway, then your driver may not be the problem.
Hitting greens in regulation is critical to scoring, but not the whole picture. Driving the ball in play should give you opportunities to get the ball on the green, but how close are you hitting it to the hole when you have the chance? If your approach shots are too far from the hole, it will lead to more three putts and higher scores.
We know that having a good short game is a quick recipe to shooting lower scores, but merely tracking up and downs may not provide enough information. Be sure to keep track of how far you’re chipping and pitching the ball from the hole. Leaving yourself 12 feet every time for par or bogey will not lead to consistent saves. If you’re chipping it to 5 feet and missing the putts, however, then your short putting needs to take priority.

Most of us can agree that players with negative outlooks on their golf game rarely play to their potential. Only evaluating yourself based on your best scores leads to a constant grind to play your very best, which we know is not going to happen every time we tee it up. Make sure to appreciate your best golf, and have a clear intention to play great whenever you play.

Be realistic with where you are as a player, however, and use the numbers as a way to evaluate your improvement over time. Work on the areas of your game that will positively influence your scoring, and enjoy the process. You’re more likely to walk off the course happy… and maybe even with a couple of your friend’s dollars in your pocket.

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Dean Kandle

Dean Kandle is a PGA Head Golf Professional and fortunate to have the opportunity to help the members of St. Davids Golf Club in Wayne, Pennsylvania, improve and enjoy the game of golf. He has been teaching the game to players for more than 15 years and also founded the website, mygolf180.com. My Golf 180 is dedicated to sharing ideas and methods to help players experience lasting growth and improvement in their games. During his career, Dean has been the Head Professional at multiple “Top 100” clubs, been mentored by top coaches and instructors, and has been successful in building innovative and effective player development programs for players of all abilities at each step of the way. Find more info at mygolf180.com or connect with Dean, [email protected] or @deankandle.

28 Comments

Steven

Oct 20, 2016 at 12:11 pm

Great article. This also illustrates many sports psychologists points that focusing on score isn’t what leads to success. Goals should focus more on the process. Count how many times in a round you made the smooth swing you worked on or something like that. Focusing on the process of getting better is what actually leads to success (decreased handicap).

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 27, 2016 at 7:18 pm
  
  Agreed! Process will produce results more often than focusing on score. Focused practice that addresses your needs will help scores come down quicker.
  
  Reply Report comment
mat

Oct 19, 2016 at 11:00 am

maybe trying to have other expectations than lowering your handicap will make you a ( better, happier) golfer?

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:21 am
  
  Well, happier would depend on the person but lowering your handicap would mean lower scores and therefore becoming a “better” golfer!
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Double Mocha Man
    
    Oct 21, 2016 at 11:41 am
    
    I think it’s time for Smizzle to post his own picture.
    
    Reply Report comment
BD57

Oct 18, 2016 at 9:28 pm

Truth be told, you “play to your handicap” in the neighborhood of 25% of the time.

A handicap is based upon best 10 of 20 scores, and ‘averaging’ is involved, which (in very rough terms) means 1/2 of those 10 scores will be ‘better’ than average and 1/2 will be worse.

So if you start “playing to your current handicap” – at least, as most people mean it when they say it – your handicap is going to be GOING DOWN.

And you won’t be playing to it any more. 🙂

Reply Report comment
Ron

Oct 18, 2016 at 4:54 pm

Don’t forget about equitable scoring. My handicap would be a lot closer to my average if I was allowed to post the occasional snowman or worse that I take. Since I’m limited to no more than a 7 on any hole, my handicap is artificially low.

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:23 am
  
  Great point Ron and even more evidence of why your handicap is not the best reflection of your game. Track your scores without adjusting for equitable stroke control and that’s going to be the most accurate picture of your game.
  
  Reply Report comment
- KK
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:54 pm
  
  You limit yourself to no more than a 7 on any hole. That’s called cheating. Not everyone cheats.
  
  Reply Report comment
Pingback: The myth of playing to your handicap, and why it’s ruining your expectations | Swing Update
Sean

Oct 17, 2016 at 9:28 pm

Well said Dean. You raise a good point, one I never was really cognizant of.

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:24 am
  
  Thanks Sean!
  
  Reply Report comment
Nick

Oct 17, 2016 at 3:30 pm

I wish the handicap system would be more around an average or like you middle 50% of scores, I feel like it may help lower handicap players compete against higher handicap players.

Reply Report comment
Tom D

Oct 17, 2016 at 2:51 pm

I never thought of my handicap index as an average. I do know that the only way to lower my index is to score lower. That’s why I use my index as the target score for each round. If I shoot under, my index will eventually go down. If I shoot over, my index will eventually go up. I want a little challenge when I start a round, to push me to play better and/or practice better. I couldn’t really tell if the point of the article was “Don’t feel bad if you shoot over your handicap” or “Don’t try to shoot your handicap, it’s too hard and you need less challenge in your golf game.”

Since I don’t make living from playing golf, there really isn’t any pressure on me to play better or score lower. Using my handicap index as my target score gives me at least a little pressure in an otherwise meaningless round.

Reply Report comment
Dave r

Oct 17, 2016 at 1:03 pm

Good article and right on , But this still does not take care of the baggers but then that’s another topic ,and how do you control it?

Reply Report comment
- Egor
  
  Oct 17, 2016 at 3:10 pm
  
  Sandbagging a handicap should be hard to do (it’s not, but it should be) and the handicap system makes provision for that.
  
  1st, The 10 highest of the last 20 scores are thrown out.
  2nd, scores are supposed to be attested whenever possible. USGA requires 3 scores per year to be attested or the player should have NH next to their index.
  3rd, T scores according to 10-3 can reduce the handicap accordingly
  4th, the handicap committee has the *responsibility* of adjusting a player’s handicap if it is determined their handicap is not reflective of their playing ability.
  
  If your handicap chairman is not doing his job or the handicap committee of the club isn’t, they should be corrected or the USGA made aware so that corrections can be made. A handicap is only as accurate as the player posting scores and then the committee reviewing the scores and playing along with the player in question.
  
  It’s not perfect, but if the handicap committee follows the rules the USGA has worked out, it should be more difficult for someone to sandbag. It’s not impossible and if someone wants to cheat, they will.
  
  Reply Report comment
Double Mocha Man

Oct 17, 2016 at 12:33 pm

Somewhat on topic… related. For all of you out there who think you hit the ball longer than you actually do (most of us) jump on your computer and make a chart showing how far you hit each club. Print it out. Carry it in your bag.

Now, through the magic of word processing on your computer, go back and TAKE 5 YARDS OFF every club distance. Print it out, carry it in your bag. Use that one on the course. Use the other one to blow your nose. Watch your scores improve.

Reply Report comment
Paul Dunn

Oct 17, 2016 at 11:41 am

I’ve always worked on the basis that you should only really play to your handicap or better every one in five rounds. Doing so more than that will most likely result in a handicap cut, and rightly so.

Reply Report comment
Chris

Oct 17, 2016 at 11:01 am

This article is spot on. Just this morning on Golf Channel’s Morning Drive, they were perpetuating the myth that your handicap is your average in their bell curve segment. Ironically, the intent was to illustrate that your scores have scatter.

Reply Report comment
AJS

Oct 17, 2016 at 11:00 am

Good article. If scores are normally distributed, the difference between the average of your last 20 stroke differentials versus the average of your 10 best is the standard deviation of your scores, probably about 3 strokes. And don’t forget about the impact of slope when going from handicap to “expected” score. Even for a scratch/plus player this could add 1 stroke.

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:26 am
  
  Yes, for the players I’ve tracked, I’ve found a typical standard deviation of 3-4 strokes,
  
  Reply Report comment
Egor

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:37 am

I use two things to analyze my game – TheGrint.com for free handicap and ArccosGolf.com for tracking what I’m actually doing on the course. After 60+ rounds in Arccos, I know where some of my weakness is – driving in the fairway – so I’ve devoted some time to fix what I’m doing wrong with my driver. I’m getting better at putting it 250-270 in the fairway with my driver.

TheGrint gives me a free real handicap that I can use for tournament play (I don’t.. ever ..) but it also let’s me know that I float between 11.5 – 13.5 depending on my rounds.

Reply Report comment
Mr. Wedge

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:32 am

Article is spot on. Most people simply do not understand the USGA handicapping system and inadvertently equate it to their “average”. I try to educate and simplify by telling people it’s what you would expect to shoot if you are having a really good round.

Reply Report comment
Eric C O'Brien

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:23 am

Expectations ! Why is that so often one scores best on the day that one’s expectations are low ?

Reply Report comment
Double Mocha Man

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:19 am

I don’t let my score, up or down, frustrate me. I’m looking for a certain quality of shots that I expect to execute based on past performance. And I’m looking for consistency. I can have a higher score and leave the course elated. Or I can have a lower score and exit the course puzzled.

Reply Report comment
Paul

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:11 am

I also think people tend to over estimate their handicap which tends to let them down. Ive heard a lot of guys say, “Oh I’m a 10.” And they’ve never shot below an 90 in their life. If people were honest about their handicap they would enjoy them game more. I worked hard for my 22 handicap!!!! LOL

Reply Report comment
- Tom.
  
  Oct 17, 2016 at 1:49 pm
  
  honesty in this sport is rare. But I do agree.
  
  Reply Report comment
Philip

Oct 17, 2016 at 9:42 am

I think of my handicap as a target to beat – nothing more. I usually play to my average which tends to float close to my handicap.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

2 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

4 days ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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