Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

Tiger Woods is finished as a professional golfer

Published

on

As one of the world’s biggest Tiger Woods fans, I am sad to officially say Tiger is finished. He’s done. It’s over people.

Honestly, I can’t believe Tiger’s game has been reduced to what it is today. He was a golfer who made the impossible seem easy, seemingly every week in his prime. Now he’s a shell of his former golfing self, just another guy on the PGA Tour from a scoring perspective. And he might not even be that. Brandel Chamblee postulated that we may never see Tiger on a PGA Tour tee sheet ever again, and there’s a chance he’s right.

As a golf instructor and student of the game, I have identified the compounding reasons why Tiger’s game is in a state that was unimaginable only a few years ago, and why he’ll never dominate again. I hope I’m wrong — there’s no denying that Tiger Woods has touched the life of every person in the golf industry and every golf fan in some way — but all the evidence is to the contrary.

The Death of Earl 

As a child, Tiger idolized and emulated his father, Earl Woods. Publicly and privately, Earl created an ideological identity for Tiger, and one that Tiger seemed to believe wholeheartedly. He trusted Earl, and succeeded in following Earl’s vision to become everything his father wanted him to be.

To many it seemed laughable to hear Earl speak about his son and Gandhi in the same sentence, but Tiger had to wonder, “Why not?” Like everything else Earl predicted in his son’s life, if Earl said it then it had to be achievable.

When Earl died, Tiger lost his best friend, his confidant, and his guiding light that led him to his greatest successes. Who else could fill that role? Tiger was now the most celebrated athlete on the planet and on his way to billionaire status. Who could he really trust? For the first time in his life, Tiger was the boss and was left to navigate the world… on his own.

Swing Changes and Different Coaches

To master golf to any degree is a losing battle… unless you were Tiger Woods in the early 2000s.

Tiger was rocking along with Butch Harmon as his swing coach, winning every tournament in sight and setting record after record. All was right with the world, but Tiger wanted more. He wanted to become a better golfer, learn more about the game and separate himself even further from his peers.

Harmon wanted Woods to concentrate on maintaining the skills he had, and believed he was fine where he was fundamentally. He didn’t want to mess with the delicate mix of mechanics and confidence that allowed Tiger to become the most dominant golfer of all time. He knew it was a recipe for disaster. But Tiger wasn’t satisfied, and left Harmon to seek other ideas on how to hit the ball better.

Enter Hank Haney, Sean Foley and Tiger’s current coach, Chris Como. I know each personally and they are ALL great teachers, but they all have different ideas on how to best play the game. Watching Tiger’s great success with Haney, and to a lesser degree with Sean Foley, we know that Tiger could basically swing in whatever style he desired and still win. But it wasn’t fair to those teachers to expect Tiger to become a better golfer under their tutelage. Let me explain.

When you teach great golfers, you will always fight their reluctancy to change, even if that’s what they say they want. So Haney, Foley and Como had to spend at least 50 percent of their time convincing Tiger that they were telling him the right thing, and then the other 50 percent of their time working on his motion.

Like most great players, Tiger always thought he knew best, so he only used the bits of instruction he liked best and inserted them into his swing, even if they weren’t the most important bits. Tiger’s swing was anything but a lump of clay that Haney, Foley or Como could mold to perfection, and for that reason they can’t be blamed fully for his successes or his failures.

Marriage, All Hell Breaks Loose, Divorce 

When Tiger married Elin Nordegren, the golf world assumed she was the one person Tiger could trust blindly in Earl’s absence, and marriage was going to make Tiger a better golfer, as it did with Jack Nicklaus.

As we all know, it didn’t exactly work out that way. I’m not here to judge Tiger, and the end result of his divorce was clear. He lost his wife, became divided from his children, and in just a few weeks went from being the most admired athlete on the planet to a laughing stock. And when Tiger looked in the mirror, who could he blame other than the reflection staring back at him?

Divorce is an evil thing. I’ve been there. It breaks down a man in ways that I can’t explain, and the impact it has on your children adds to the hurt. It makes sense that since he suffered his back injury he has been seen spending as much time with his kids as possible. Deep down, do you think Tiger really wants to be a golf rock star again? Does he want to even further separate himself from his children?

Tiger has enough money for several lifetimes, and enough business ventures to keep him relevant in golf history. If he never plays again, he knows he’ll still be the Michael Jordan of golf.

Bad Press and Hank Haneys Book

There is no question that Tiger’s life must be a royal pain in the a** on a daily basis, but he has somehow held most of it together. Enter Hank Haney’s book.

Forget the argument of ethics, and let’s focus on the one thing that left a lasting impression on me as a player and teacher when it came to Tiger. Haney vividly described Tiger’s once invincible mental strength being reduced to sheer panic at Augusta National’s putting green at The Masters.

One thing Tiger always had in the eyes of his Tour peers was the belief that his mental game was unwavering. Players folded week after week, believing Tiger was stronger mentally than they ever would be, not to mention how good he was physically.

When Hank described the ending of their time together, it confirmed that Tiger dealt with the same neurosis and doubts all golfers do. This revelation opened the doors for Tour players to actually believe Tiger could be beat. The mystique of Tiger Woods, at least in the eyes of his competitors, faded.

The Final Breakdown of the Athletic Body

Golf is hard enough with a perfect body, not to mention one that is faltering. Tiger was once one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, but the golf fitness revolution he led influenced a new generation of golfers that started hitting it by him easily.

Tiger’s distance dominance was a big part of his past success, and his attempt to remain one of the longest players on Tour hurt his game. How many times have we heard him talk about the kinetic chain, muscle activation and explosiveness when he should be talking about scoring better? He became obsessed with fixing his body and adding more distance, and it only led to more problems.

With injury after injury piling up, Tiger’s body couldn’t take the practice sessions or the workouts that once made him unstoppable. He was shorter and more crooked off the tee relative to his peers, and his short game started to decline from a lack of reps. Even in Tiger’s five-win season in 2013, the golf world started to see how his game was changing. He needed his A-game to win, where he only used to need his C-game.

The Short Game Yips

In the golf teaching community, we all knew Chris Como inherited a broken short-game motion with Tiger, and it was ready to come to a head with Tiger’s continued focus on the long game. And as anyone who has had the chipping and pitching yips knows, you never completely get rid of them; they are just dormant until they decide to come back again.

If anyone is skilled enough to put the chipping yips to bed for good, it’s Tiger. But don’t forget the three wedge shots he dumped in the water during a corporate outing at Congressional a few months ago off a tight lie. Whatever was going through his mind, it was likely the same thought that caused him to withdraw from the Safeway Open.

The Comeback: Range vs. Course

So Jesper Parnevik and Notah Begay III said Tiger was striping it and is ready to come back and play… and then Tiger committed to the Safeway Open. The golf world was jazzed! But deep down, Tiger knows the range is not the place that tells you if you are ready or not. Anyone at the PGA Tour level can stripe it on the range or during practice rounds, especially when they’re not going full speed.

Every video of Tiger I have seen during his comeback is at practice speed, and his swing is almost cut off looking like he is still trying to guide the ball as you would with a knockdown shot. I have yet to see a series of swings at competition speed with different clubs, beginning with the driver. Until then, I am not convinced of Tiger’s mechanical or physical health.

Loss of Confidence

The nail in the coffin of a golf career? It’s withdrawing due to a lack of confidence in your game. Anyone who has played golf at the tournament level understands the doubt that can creep in at times, but that’s not the same as being afraid to compete. Tiger is afraid to compete right now. He knows that every 78 he shoots from here on out will tarnish what he has accomplished in his golf career, and that’s a tough pill to swallow.

Tiger knows this is his last shot. Not wanting to play until he is ready is his safety net, but will he ever be truly ready? Probably not.

Your Reaction?
  • 570
  • LEGIT840
  • WOW56
  • LOL50
  • IDHT14
  • FLOP54
  • OB63
  • SHANK816

Tom F. Stickney II, is a specialist in Biomechanics for Golf, Physiology, and 3d Motion Analysis. He has a degree in Exercise and Fitness and has been a Director of Instruction for almost 30 years at resorts and clubs such as- The Four Seasons Punta Mita, BIGHORN Golf Club, The Club at Cordillera, The Promontory Club, and the Sandestin Golf and Beach Resort. His past and present instructional awards include the following: Golf Magazine Top 100 Teacher, Golf Digest Top 50 International Instructor, Golf Tips Top 25 Instructor, Best in State (Florida, Colorado, and California,) Top 20 Teachers Under 40, Best Young Teachers and many more. Tom is a Trackman University Master/Partner, a distinction held by less than 25 people in the world. Tom is TPI Certified- Level 1, Golf Level 2, Level 2- Power, and Level 2- Fitness and believes that you cannot reach your maximum potential as a player with out some focus on your physiology. You can reach him at [email protected] and he welcomes any questions you may have.

109 Comments

109 Comments

  1. DrRob1963

    Sep 26, 2018 at 12:30 am

    Hey Tom!
    Where is that “Humble Pie” you ordered?

  2. TOm who

    Sep 13, 2018 at 9:32 am

    How stupid do you feel lacking the intelligence to realize it was back and health problems?

  3. B

    Aug 21, 2018 at 9:56 am

    Well….you’re fired! ???????????

  4. Connor

    Aug 17, 2018 at 1:05 pm

    This came up on my sidebar next to the stupid broad puffing her chest out at the airport, and I seriously thought it was TMZ or some other form of trash click-bait. Come to find out it’s an article written by Tom two years ago on this very site lolololololol. Absolute TRASH journalism.

  5. PH DE N ROTHSCHILD

    Aug 13, 2018 at 3:53 pm

    One should NEVER make definitive comments like you did in 2016… You absolutely made a FOOL of yourself.
    Shame you are a respected journalist.

  6. Nocklaus

    Aug 1, 2018 at 4:46 am

    So, what dio you say now…? Tiger leading in The Open, finishing in the top ten …

  7. Travis

    Jul 27, 2018 at 5:32 am

    Yes the recent Britis Open showed us all Tigers pro golfing days are over…. can’t compete huh? Bet you feel stupid now for writing this.

  8. Paul Blake

    May 2, 2018 at 12:08 am

    Yes there is a lesson, I hit a physical wall of poor health at 47! It became an effort to do any training, and arthritis was moving into my joints and back…and this was bringing on depression. Diet and Yoga were the two main answers, doctors prescriptions only made things worse.
    I am 73 now, and I have zero diseases, and no arthritis at all, and I take zero prescription drugs! I train hard every day of the week, and from the comments I get, and the way I feel, the payoff has been big! Ever heard of anyone who stated getting arthritis, and then grew out of it as they got older…That is what Yoga and a very clean diet can bring you?

    • Tim

      Dec 10, 2018 at 8:50 pm

      Hi Paul,
      You did all this with just yoga and diet? Can you please forward me your weekly regimen?

      Thanks, Tim

  9. Pingback: Tiger Woods Fitness Workout

  10. Shallowface

    Oct 22, 2016 at 9:53 pm

    Golfers always had a complex about wanting to be considered athletes, and Tiger led the “fitness revolution.”
    Now golfers are considered athletes. And, just like athletes in every other sport, they have injury riddled careers and are washed up at 40 if not sooner. Congratulations. You got what you wanted.
    Sam Snead was a devotee of yoga, and was great well into his 60s. Maybe there’s a lesson there.

  11. KK

    Oct 20, 2016 at 8:08 pm

    Too many injuries, too much psychological scarring, too much money, too many young lions roaming the tour. It’s a wrap.

  12. Mad-Mex

    Oct 20, 2016 at 2:10 am

    Wonder how long before we see him in “Dancing with the Stars”?

  13. Mad-Mex

    Oct 20, 2016 at 12:15 am

    Ballsy article in a website where Tiger worshiping is the norm, somehow I get the feeling that those who are bashing Tom also follow the Kardashians ,,,,,,,,,

  14. devilsadvocate

    Oct 19, 2016 at 6:07 pm

    Wow Tom… I am one of your biggest fans on this site. That being said I am dissappointed tremendously with this article. Really what was the point? Oh right to get hits. Come on man kicking someone when they are down is low class.

  15. JL

    Oct 18, 2016 at 7:11 pm

    I hate this website and most of its users.

    • Mad-Mex

      Oct 20, 2016 at 12:37 am

      Awesome! We cant stand you either, now go away,,,,,,,,,,,,

  16. GetRichorTyTryon

    Oct 18, 2016 at 1:54 am

    The comment section is borderline Trump vs Hillary. I’m a HUGE Tiger fan. Although this is an opinion piece much of the statements based on his timeline are true. What bothers me is casual fans that say he needs to do this or he needs to do that and then he’ll win. Earl was a major source of stability. Too many swing changes with too little time. It’s baffling to me that Tiger needs to learn how to chip again or find his “pattern”. I guess it’s a lifelong fine tuning but it seems some, Stricker, Furyk and many others always have a solid short game. I’m not saying Tiger can’t come back and win again. Not at all. I’m saying that if you think he’s going to come back and be the dominant 2000 Tiger than I think you’re in denial.

  17. Jack Nash

    Oct 17, 2016 at 5:06 pm

    The most important statement from Woods and his pulling out of Safeway was that he felt his game was “vulnerable”. People said he was stripping it. He said his back was great, but one thing will make you “vulnerable” and that’s the chipping yips. Im betting that’s what he has and he can’t break it. If there’s anyone around that can help him it’s Stricker. Sometimes the best hand action is no hand action at all. That’s who I would call. To me he’s one of the BEST wedge players in the game, and if you’re having problems with a handsy short game the best thing to do is take them right out.

  18. Grizz01

    Oct 17, 2016 at 4:57 pm

    Two things not mentioned… sort of…

    1. Divorce did not doom Tiger. There are plenty of athletes who get divorce and find their way. Whoring around did him in when it became public and he couldn’t/wouldn’t be humble and apologize for his behavior. That is in his head.

    2. PED’s can’t be as easily used as he once used them. Can’t use them to heal up his broken body.

  19. MIke

    Oct 17, 2016 at 4:33 pm

    Interesting article, I do not agree with the writer, I just hope that if he is wrong he would admit it! Very strong things to say about anyone! Tiger will come back he will win more tournaments and I even think he will win more majors!

  20. Keith W.

    Oct 17, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    During the final regulation round of the U.S. Open in June, 2008, I watched in literal horror as Tiger limped and staggered around Torrey Pines trying to win on what was clearly a serious injury to his leg. While on-air commentary openly marveled at his so-called “courage” for playing in obvious pain, I became physically ill. To say that I was not impressed with his “courage” is a serious understatement. I frankly considered his recklessness immature and down-right stupid.

    I turned to my guests who were watching with me in my home and I said “this is the dumbest thing I have ever seen Tiger do…he is putting his entire career in jeopardy continuing to play with this injury”. In fact when he defeated Rocco Mediate in the Monday playoff I stated out loud that this, very likely, “could be his last major championship win”. It was. Moreover, it was the first in a series of reckless mistakes that keynoted his ultimate fall from grace.

    If you arrange a timeline from that weekend forward Tiger has never been the same physically, mentally, or emotionally. If you look at each of the succeeding life and career decisions (missteps), i.e., health, marriage, friendships, professional mentoring, and subsequent personal relationships he has done nothing to engender himself to anyone…most importantly himself.

    Tiger tripped over his belief in his invincibility at Torrey Pines and has been stumbling to regain his balance ever since. Along the way he has fallen from being, arguably, the greatest post “Jordan” era athlete reduced now to a pitiful shadow of his former excellence. It hurts to watch, and pains me to see a hero vanquished.

  21. Jim

    Oct 17, 2016 at 12:58 pm

    Good article Tom. Unfortunately we are living in a very decisive, partisan climate where anyone who disagrees with the “popular” opinion must be vilified and personally attacked. Thanks for sharing your “opinion” with us Tom.

    • rymail00

      Oct 19, 2016 at 9:10 pm

      +1

      Not just this article, every article. It’s either “good article” or basically “what a POS article”. It’s to bad.

  22. Ron Garland

    Oct 17, 2016 at 12:14 pm

    Tiger’s been playing Miura’s with a Nike logo for quite a while.

    • Tim

      Dec 10, 2018 at 8:57 pm

      Wrong, Tiger has played ENDO forgings basically all along since being with Nike. Miura has been a myth since Tiger started dominating the Tour late 90’s early to mid 2000’s. Starting with his Titleist contract when first turning pro. Titleist was Hoffman forgings later they used Endo forgings as well.

  23. Steve Wozeniak

    Oct 17, 2016 at 11:44 am

    Actually he is an easy fix for a Professional that understands the golf swing…….the problem is getting him to stay on task for more than a half hour…….

    Steve Wozeniak PGA
    http://www.stevewozeniak.com

  24. Bob Jones

    Oct 17, 2016 at 10:37 am

    Tiger coming back is like stepping onto a treadmill that’s turned on High. He probably got spooked when he realized what his game would really be up against in the Safeway. It’s best he retires on a high note than falling on his face trying to recapture the magic. Saving his back from further damage would be a good reason and an honest one.

  25. Flip

    Oct 17, 2016 at 10:26 am

    That’s the worst case of writing I have ever viewed. What a hack

  26. Scooter McGavin

    Oct 17, 2016 at 7:22 am

    Anyone know of any other golf sites? Gerting tired of the clickbait crap here.

    • Jim

      Oct 17, 2016 at 10:34 am

      Agreed…add the tough-guy keyboard commando responses to legit teaching/technique articles and responses too.

      Tiger’s been done for a while. Time for Eldric to just come out and enjoy playing again….. or hang em up, dig in to business like Norman. Frankly, I don’t care what he does as long as he’s happy

  27. Pingback: ?????????????????? – ???????????????????

  28. Matt

    Oct 16, 2016 at 5:41 pm

    I’m all for trying to get “hits” on stories but the fact is one person knows if he has the game or not and that’s Tiger. If I were betting on his comeback I’d say it would fail but that’s not a revelation. And if he comes back and succeeds you can back track to “he’s not the same Tiger he once was” or “I’m the first person to be happy I was wrong”. Great for your “hits” but no much for journalism. Breaking News, Alabama football is good.

  29. Corey

    Oct 16, 2016 at 3:33 pm

    Tom…who are you to officially say?

  30. Egor

    Oct 16, 2016 at 2:55 pm

    Click
    Bait

  31. Jack

    Oct 16, 2016 at 11:31 am

    Only an unintelligent, childish coat tail puller would give his attention to Tiger Woods now.

  32. Yearight

    Oct 16, 2016 at 11:28 am

    Put tigers name on an article title, put a controversial statement with it, something you have no real knowledge of. Then make the title seem as though an announcement was made to get people to click on it.

    Then write terribly and just restate year old arguments about tiger’s life.

    Excellent “work”

  33. Jacob

    Oct 16, 2016 at 9:01 am

    Shoulda stuck with Sean.

  34. ooffa

    Oct 16, 2016 at 6:25 am

    Great article. Yep, he’s done.

  35. J

    Oct 16, 2016 at 1:29 am

    I agree with some of the above posters, I don’t ever comment on these articles but I found this to be kind of an unnecessary article. Count me among those who hopes Tiger does come back, even if it’s at a fraction of his former self. He owes no one anything and it’s been a pleasure to watch him over the years. The bold title and restating of common knowledge to back up a theory is kind of cheap and tabloidish. But it put eyes on the page and clicks in the counter which seems to be the only measure of success these days.

  36. Lob Wedge

    Oct 16, 2016 at 12:41 am

    Copying golfwrx posts, tweaking/editing them and pasting now qualifies as writing an article?

    Which is worse.. The tweek and paste or the outright copy/paste with the golfwrx username and calling that an article.

    I can’t even use my golfwrx putter covers in public anymore because of articles like these. C’mon golfwrx!

  37. Guia

    Oct 16, 2016 at 12:02 am

    Another speculative opinion.

    The crystal ball is foggy, and as always everyone reads something different.

    Athletes, always think they have something left, and usually give it several more tries. Either on the PGA Tour, or the Champions Tour.

  38. Pingback: Tiger Woods is finished as a professional golfer | Swing Update

  39. Rwj

    Oct 15, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    I believe tiger dropped out of Safeway because they announced they were pairing him with Phil. I believe he was scared to play with Phil, afraid to look foolish or get bet by him personally

  40. D

    Oct 15, 2016 at 8:11 pm

    Hater

  41. Bert

    Oct 15, 2016 at 6:26 pm

    Well thought out and good analysis. Thanks for your prospective Tom.

  42. Jack

    Oct 15, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    Look at all the fanboys hitting the “shank” button. That was predictable, lol.

    • moses

      Oct 15, 2016 at 7:37 pm

      Yeah and the haters hitting the like button. Hmmmm

      • Jalan

        Oct 15, 2016 at 11:29 pm

        If that’s true, there are far more Tiger Fellaters than Haters. Fellaters outnumber fan boys two to one.

        • Jalan

          Oct 15, 2016 at 11:32 pm

          edit: Fellaters outnumber Haters 2 to 1

          • Fella

            Oct 16, 2016 at 3:30 am

            Regardless, they call fallate themselves

            • Jack

              Oct 16, 2016 at 10:33 am

              They’re just upset because they wasted their money on a brand new red shirt and an extra large tube of hand lotion.

  43. Sean

    Oct 15, 2016 at 5:32 pm

    I have never been a big fan of TW, but I don’t think he’s done. Not by a long shot.

    • DrRob1963

      Oct 17, 2016 at 6:04 pm

      I agree! Never write off the great players. Tiger’s only 40 – Jack won that fabulous ’86 US Masters at age 46 after he had been written off by so many.

      • DrRob1963

        Sep 26, 2018 at 12:28 am

        Rereading this nearly two years later has put the biggest smile on my face!
        Fabulous comeback, Tiger!
        C.H.A.M.P.I.O.N

  44. smh

    Oct 15, 2016 at 4:55 pm

    Click-bait.
    Totally respect your opinion but you do deserve to hear that this is JUST click-bait given the headline.

  45. Tom Stickney

    Oct 15, 2016 at 4:47 pm

    Not a bait and switch article just my thoughts from what I’ve seen and experienced in my 20+ years on the lesson tee.

    Personally I hope I’m wrong as I am a huge Tiger fan but you can’t deny the compounding problems he’s had.

    Harmon, Hank, Sean, and Chris have ALL had their work cut out for them teaching Tiger. I respect them greatly for stepping up to the plate and giving it their all. Regardless of his w/l record during their tenure with him they are all regarded as the top 1% in our field in my book.

    • cgasucks

      Oct 15, 2016 at 8:37 pm

      If you want to keep what is left of your credibility you have on this site don’t put a misleading title on your articles…

  46. the bishop

    Oct 15, 2016 at 3:50 pm

    LOL! Maybe but slow news day?

  47. steve peake

    Oct 15, 2016 at 3:31 pm

    Not an original thought in this opinion? article

  48. AC

    Oct 15, 2016 at 3:19 pm

    it’s article and someone’s opinion… good grief, people’s panties getting all wadded up.
    I’ve participated at the highest level of sports, professional. Tiger’s mentality is so weak he’s become friendly and dependent on withdrawing from events to escape. When you reach that level of quit you have entered denial with no shame.

  49. Deejaymn

    Oct 15, 2016 at 3:15 pm

    Someone already mentioned it but CLICKBAIT, I’m surprised he didn’t mention Brad Pitt to garner more clicks. Anyone who speaks in absolutes is a fool in my books. Hey we all know it’s uphill for tiger but hey you never know, he basically wrote a history that has been rehashed to death with no interesting insights of his own. Step up your writing game.

  50. JJr

    Oct 15, 2016 at 3:13 pm

    Tom Stickney II is finished as professional writer!
    I won’t go into detail.

    • cgasucks

      Oct 15, 2016 at 8:39 pm

      Quite true…he should stick to giving lessons to hackers.

  51. Mark

    Oct 15, 2016 at 2:36 pm

    Often, the written word is Golf WRX’s Achilles’ heel. I consider this article to be one of the better ones. It is well written and well structured. If the author’s opinion differs from yours, welcome to the free world.

    • elslash

      Oct 15, 2016 at 4:10 pm

      Best writing on almost any topic in GolfWRX, possibly ever!

  52. Jack

    Oct 15, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    Excellent article! Agree 100% with your opinion. Tiger has only been saying he will come back to continue his endorsement income. He has had no value whatsoever for over a year, and no future value either. You are absolutely right – he’s finished…

  53. Brian

    Oct 15, 2016 at 2:27 pm

    Are you talking about the article, or 99% of your posts?

  54. cocheese

    Oct 15, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    This clickbait style article may seriously deteriorating the integrity of this site.

  55. ultimate hacker

    Oct 15, 2016 at 12:25 pm

    delete this already

    • Mr Muira.

      Oct 15, 2016 at 7:52 pm

      I hope Tiger-san keep going so i can make clubs for him, unfortunately he got too much sushi in brain.

  56. ultimate hacker

    Oct 15, 2016 at 12:24 pm

    waste of time

  57. Dwight Howard

    Oct 15, 2016 at 12:24 pm

    Tiger’s career may not be over but judging by the desperation of this article, the website may be finished

  58. Ryan

    Oct 15, 2016 at 12:17 pm

    Read people. It literally says “Opinion and Analysis” right above the title. This is his opinion. An opinion in which a lot of people who understand golf agree with. Tiger is done. Get over it. Move on.

    • Titty681

      Oct 15, 2016 at 2:58 pm

      If you would have moved on you wouldn’t be reading this article.

  59. Ed

    Oct 15, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    Thank you for this article. We all hate to see the inevitable ebb of that magic that make our hero’s seem superhuman. Great article Tom.

  60. Tony Rich

    Oct 15, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    Stickney just looking for some attention…..just a weak article, please find something else to talk about. Pathetic writer, all you did was plagiarize some golf channel articles from the last 6 months. You and Chamblee should find an island together and never come back.

  61. Markallister

    Oct 15, 2016 at 11:47 am

    most of this article is wrong. urcle did a bad job trying to change his swing one time too often. competition is just so much better athletically than it used to be. urcle’s body is broken.

  62. Jafar

    Oct 15, 2016 at 11:41 am

    Headline should have “Opinion” in front of the title.

    • Mat

      Oct 15, 2016 at 2:12 pm

      Instead of having it in a blue, highlighted box just above it.

      • Jafar

        Oct 16, 2016 at 7:47 am

        Yah it’s not on the homepage though. So it’s clickbait. “From the Forums” uses FTF:

        Why couldn’t this use Opinion:

  63. Ugh

    Oct 15, 2016 at 11:21 am

    This article is / was so unnecessary.

  64. TD

    Oct 15, 2016 at 11:11 am

    Why can’t I paste this dumb little the horse is beat down dead emoji?

  65. Plus

    Oct 15, 2016 at 11:11 am

    I thought this was a real report on something Eldrick said. But how brave you are to let out your opinion like this, Tom.

  66. farmer

    Oct 15, 2016 at 11:03 am

    No one knows the real state of Tiger’s game, but the only way to find out if it’s ready for tournament play ….. is to play tournaments. My expectations were that he would use these fall tournaments to knock the rust off, see what needs work, and then be ready for 2017. Now, playing in a limited field event, then taking off until, say, Torrey, is not a recipe for success.

  67. Topic_Monitor

    Oct 15, 2016 at 10:55 am

    Please be respectful of authors and fellow WRXers. Thank You

  68. MT

    Oct 15, 2016 at 10:48 am

    Agreed – delete the article. No need to mislead people just because you think his career is over.

  69. Dumbwrx

    Oct 15, 2016 at 10:46 am

    There won’t be any comments on this story, I’m sure!

  70. Jack

    Oct 15, 2016 at 10:45 am

    Agree 100% – Tiger is finished as a professional tour player. Zero chance he could ever come close to winning any tournament…or even finishing in the top 10 – make that top 20.

    • Casey

      Oct 15, 2016 at 4:57 pm

      Yeah, because the last time we saw him play in a tournament he finished 10th, 4 shots off the leader with a blow-up triple bogey that knocked him from contention. So care to explain why you think he’ll never play any sort of decent golf again?

  71. Square

    Oct 15, 2016 at 10:44 am

    Really Tom? How about giving the guy a chance, forgive his mistakes and root for the guy who gave us the best period of professional golf in my lifetime. What a crappy article!

  72. Dj

    Oct 15, 2016 at 10:33 am

    Change the title. And give me my 2 minutes back. Better yet, just delete the article.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters

Published

on

We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.

In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.

Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.

Placement Bets:

Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):

I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.

Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):

Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.

In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).

Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.

Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.

Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.

Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):

The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.

This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.

Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.

Top Nationalities:

Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):

I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.

I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.

This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):

While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.

He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.

Tournament Head-to-Heads:

Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa

JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).

Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.

Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark

I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.

Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.

Your Reaction?
  • 9
  • LEGIT5
  • WOW3
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK2

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

Published

on

It’s been over nine months since we saw Brian Harman parlay a dominant performance at Royal Liverpool into a claret jug. After another major offseason filled with a feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, talks of a merger, and a multitude of questions regarding the future of the game, the golf world is desperate for all of the best players in the world to come together again for a major championship. 

We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. Scottie Scheffler has separated himself as the best player in the world heading into the Masters. At the moment, the 27-year-old seems to be an unstoppable force. However, questions about Scheffler’s up-and-down putter once again resurfaced as he missed multiple short putts at the Texas Children’s Houston Open including a 5’11” putt to force a playoff with Stephan Jaeger. 

Additionally, a handful of the PGA Tour’s top players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth make their way to Augusta National with their current form in question.

Plenty of LIV golfers may be up to the task of conquering Augusta, but with so much time in between the last two majors, it’s not always easy to decipher how their games will stack up against Scheffler and co.

Last year, some important changes were made at Augusta National. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards. Last year, Azalea played as the toughest of the four par 5s, and players averaged 4.74 for the week, which was down from 4.85 in 2022. However, eagles, birdies and bogeys were all up, so the lengthening achieved less pars, which equals more excitement. 

Without further ado, let’s get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.

Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.

Past Winners at the Masters 

  • 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
  • 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
  • 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
  • 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
  • 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
  • 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
  • 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
  • 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
  • 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
  • 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
  • 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
  • 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
  • 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Augusta National

Let’s take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.

 Last year, Jon Rahm ranked 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, five of the past seven winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.30)
  2. Corey Conners (+0.99)
  3. Shane Lowry (+0.88)
  4. Tony Finau (+0.85)
  5. Austin Eckroat (+0.85)

Course History

More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.

In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course. Prior to 2023, Rahm had finished in the top-10 of four of his six starts at The Masters. 

Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):

  1. Will Zalatoris (+2.91) 
  2. Jon Rahm (+2.28) 
  3. Jordan Spieth (+2.22) 
  4. Scottie Scheffler (+2.22)
  5. Dustin Johnson (+2.01)
  6. Rory McIlroy (+2.00) 
  7. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.90)
  8. Justin Rose (+1.85)
  9. Rickie Fowler (+1.72)
  10. Russell Henley (+1.60) 

Par 4 Scoring Average

Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.

Par 4 Scoring Average in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+3.88) 
  2. Chris Kirk (+3.92) 
  3. Jordan Spieth (+3.93) 
  4. Peter Malnati (+3.93)
  5. Xander Schauffele (+3.93)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.

The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:

  1. Hideki Matsuyama (+0.71)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+0.66)
  3. Patrick Reed (+0.61)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+0.53)
  5. Lucas Glover (+0.51)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Augusta National is most definitely a second shot golf course. Golfers can get away with a missed fairway here and there, however, it’s important that the misses with driver aren’t too wide of the target or there is serious trouble to be had.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+1.04)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+0.85)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+0.71)
  5. Ludvig Aberg (+0.68)

Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Bentgrass

The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.

Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass in past 24 rounds:

  1. Justin Rose (+1.43)
  2. Sahith Theegala (+0.97) 
  3. Min Woo Lee (+0.88) 
  4. Cameron Smith (+0.70) 
  5. Patrick Reed (+0.70)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Course History (16%); Par 4 Scoring Average (10%); SG: Putting on Fast Bentgrass (16%); SG: OTT (16%). and SG: ARG (16%).

Last year, Jon Rahm ranked first in this model

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Xander Schauffele
  3. Hideki Matsuyama
  4. Tony Finau 
  5. Justin Thomas
  6. Shane Lowry
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Corey Conners
  9. Si Woo Kim
  10. Rory McIlroy
  11. Stephan Jaeger
  12. Jordan Spieth
  13. Chris Kirk
  14. Keegan Bradley
  15. Wyndham Clark
  16. Sahith Theegala
  17. Russell Henley
  18. Collin Morikawa
  19. Matt Fitzpatrick
  20. Patrick Reed

My 2023 Pick:

Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)
A few months ago, I never thought that I’d be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It’s not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.

Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.

Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He’s also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.

As we’ve seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.

While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world’s best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This will be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.

2024 The Masters Picks

Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

In order to win the 2024 Masters, a player will have to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, who’s hitting the ball as anyone in golf over the last two seasons. When building a betting card this week, it’s important for me to choose players that I believe can stare Scheffler down on the weekend at Augusta National. Brooks Koepka fits that bill.

Koepka’s lackluster performance at LIV Miami is concerning, but he’s the type of player who can turn it on quickly during the week of a major championship. Although I’d have preferred, he played well last week, I’ll take the odds discount we got as a result of his most recent results.

Prior to LIV Miami, Koepka appeared to be in solid form. He finished in the top twelve in four of five starts on LIV this season. When it comes to the five-time major champion, it’s well known that he has another gear for major championships. Everything he’s done both in the off-season and during the LIV season is to gear up for the year’s first major at Augusta National.

In his past five starts at Augusta National, the 33-year-old has three top-7 finishes, including two runners-up. The two years when he played poorly (2019 and 2020) were when he was nowhere near 100% healthy. All signs point to Brooks being in a great place physically as we enter major season.

Last year, Koepka was the 36 and 54-hole leader prior to letting the green jacket slip away to Jon Rahm. He used the result as a springboard to win his 5th major at Oak Hill at the PGA Championship.

Brooks enters the week looking to get one step closer to achieving the career grand slam and golf fans would be foolish to rule him out.

Joaquin Niemann +2800 (BetRivers)

Full disclosure, I bet Niemann the second he was invited to The Masters back in February at +8000. Although the odds have shortened dramatically since then, I can’t pretend that the Chilean isn’t one of the players who has a real chance to win the 2024 Masters.

While I was speaking with Niemann back in March, he told me how much he loves Augusta National.

“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.

I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.

So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”

As Niemann alluded to, the Chilean was able to have his best career finishes at The Masters (T16) despite not being in the best form. This year, Niemann comes into the week playing better golf than anyone in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old has won three times since December and has shown the world why he was regarded as one of the games future stars since he was a teenager.

Historically speaking, Joaco’s win at Riviera a few years back seems to be an indicator of potential success at Augusta National. Fourteen players have won at both historic courses including Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan.

Niemann has all the shots to be successful at Augusta National. His low stingers will come in handy on plenty of holes down the stretch and he can work it both ways, playing the high draw or the low fade. He also putts best on Bentgrass greens and likes them fast. Whether PGA Tour or LIV, talent will always reign supreme, and I’ll always bet on that talent.

Cameron Smith (+4000) (FanDuel)

Cameron Smith is another player who we should get an odds discount on based off of the results at LIV Miami. Smith was forced to withdraw prior to the second round due to food poisoning. In my opinion, the number has drifted to a place where I’d consider it a “bet the number” play on the talent.

Smith is a contender for the green jacket anytime he tees it up at Augusta National. The Australian absolutely loves the golf course and has four top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the golf course. In both 2020 and 2022, Smith had a real chance of winning The Masters and came up just short, finishing T2 and T3 in those two tries. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta.

In order to be successful at Augusta National, players must be creative around the greens and be shot makers who have plenty of ways to get around the golf course. Cam has all the shots required to be successful at the course at his touch around the greens will continue to serve him well in his hopes for a green jacket.

Smith is arguably the best putter in the world and has the capability to win a golf tournament on and around the greens. He’s already taken down Rory McIlroy at the home of golf on his way to a claret jug and is one of the few players who can stare down any of the world’s top golfers on the back nine at Augusta National.

Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)

With how he’s been playing since his 2022 PGA Championship win, you may be shocked to see the name “Justin Thomas” in this preview. However, JT has drifted to a place on the odds board where I believe it’s worth taking a shot on the talent of a two-time major champion in his prime.

It’s not all bad for Thomas this season. He finished T6 at the signature Pebble Beach event, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T12 at the signature Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last 24 rounds, JT ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bentgrass greens.

Despite missing the cut last season, Thomas has played pretty well at Augusta National. He ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds at the course. He finished T4 in 2020, T21 in 2021 and T8 in 2022.

I believe the 2024 edition of The Masters is completely wide open. The past few years has been frustrating for Thomas fans, but I believe his peak form may be a bit closer than people realize.

Sergio Garcia +12000 (FanDuel)

Earlier this season, Garcia dueled with Joaquin Niemann before finally losing on the fourth playoff hole late into the night. Despite the loss, the 44-year-old seemed to gain confidence in his game. The results that followed weren’t spectacular, but in terms of his ball striking he’s shown some flashes of vintage Sergio.

At LIV Miami last week, Garcia played well on a massive golf course, losing in a playoff to Dean Burmester. He continued pumped the ball into the fairway and hit massive iron shot after massive iron shot. He also used a refurbished Scotty Cameron that he used in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah. The putter served him incredibly well until he missed a short putt on the 18th hole to win the event. Overall, he gained 7.1 strokes putting at Doral.

Sergio Garcia is once again headed to Augusta National with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, having a chip on the shoulder is nothing new for the fiery Spaniard, but this year, the 2017 Masters Champion will arrive at Augusta with his game clicking on all cylinders.

Sergio winning a second green jacket is seemingly an almost impossible feat, but magical things tend to happen on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National.

Adam Scott +11000 (FanDuel)

Betting Adam Scott over the past handful of years has been a Masters staple for me, and like many traditions, has been a hard one for me to let go of.

Last week, Scott finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open in a windy and difficult week. I believe the wind will be a major factor this week at Augusta National, and the more difficult the tournament plays, the more I favor Scott. Scott also ranks 5th in his past 24 rounds on Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass and has the short game these days that could help him contend in a major.

Since his win in 2013, Scott’s history at The Masters has been spotty. He has some poor finishes alongside a T9 in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. He’s been playing some solid golf this season, finishing T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T19 at the Genesis Invitational.

(All photos in piece belong to LIV Golf)

 

Your Reaction?
  • 35
  • LEGIT22
  • WOW8
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP6
  • OB2
  • SHANK22

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

The 22 players who can win the Masters

Published

on

Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.

This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.

If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.

Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.

Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson

Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935

Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)

Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.

I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods

Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas

I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:

Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk

A Tradition Unlike Any Other…

Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.

Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:

Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka

Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.

Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.

Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:

Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor

Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.

I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.

That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)

Here’s my personal top-10 picks:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)

Your Reaction?
  • 185
  • LEGIT74
  • WOW24
  • LOL25
  • IDHT5
  • FLOP12
  • OB7
  • SHANK63

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending