Opinion & Analysis
5 Tour Stops the PGA Tour is Missing
Over the course of one season, the PGA Tour and World Golf Championships host 40 events across the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas. Of those 40 events, 32 happen within 21 states during the span of 12 months. See the map below for reference (click to zoom):
As you can see, the majority of Tour events take place in major golf markets located in states with warmer climates (the West Coast and the South). There are a few cities across the country that the PGA Tour may want to consider when scheduling future events, however. Here’s my list of these five cities, which includes three courses in each city within a 100-mile radius of a major media market that could make sense for a Tour event.
Seattle
As golf fans saw last season, the city of Seattle loves the game of golf. The 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay provided the golfing world with a glimpse into golf in the Pacific Northwest, and local fans sold out the event months before in anticipation. Seattle houses the 12th largest TV market in the country, and is home to players such as Fred Couples and Ryan Moore.
Top Courses in Seattle Area
- Sahalee CC (Host of 1998 PGA Championship, 2010 U.S. Senior Open, 2016 Women’s PGA Championship)
- Chambers Bay (Host of 2015 U.S. Open)
- Aldarra Golf Club (Fazio Design, Ranked No. 3 in Washington by Golf Digest)
Detroit
From 1958 to 2009, Detroit hosted the Buick Open as an annual Tour stop. Winners of the event ranged from Billy Casper and Hale Irwin to Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods. For long-time golf fans, this was the home to a wonderful tournament atmosphere and one of the rowdiest holes in golf (known as the 2nd largest cocktail party outside of the Florida-Georgia football game). Home to the 11th largest TV market, Detroit would make a GREAT Tour stop during the summer months of the schedule.
Top Courses in Detroit
- Oakland Hills CC (Hosted 6 U.S. Opens, 3 PGA Championships and a Ryder Cup)
- Warwick Hills CC (Former Home of the Buick Open)
- Barton Hills CC (Donald Ross Design, Hosted U.S. Women’s Amateur)
Chicago
While the Windy City has hosted some recent majors and an occasional FedExCup Playoffs event, Chicago really does deserve to have a yearly Tour stop once again. The 3rd largest TV market in the U.S. hosted the Western Open from 1899 to 2006 (the 3rd longest active Tour event behind the British Open, and the U.S. Open), and has also hosted 14 U.S. Opens, 6 PGA Championships and a Ryder Cup. While the playoffs are a nice visit now and then, Chicago is certainly worthy of a yearly event.
Top Courses in Chicago
- Medinah No. 3 (Hosted 3 U.S. Opens, 2 PGA Championships and a Ryder Cup)
- Butler National GC (Host of Western Open from 1974-1990, Ranked in the Top-25 nationally)
- Kemper Lakes GC (Host of 1989 PGA Championship, Grand Slam of Golf)
Denver
Another city that has seen an occasional FedExCup Playoffs event, Denver hosts the 17th largest TV market in the U.S. “The International” was held in the Denver area from 1986-2006, and was the only stableford event hosted on Tour during that time. Denver has also seen 3 U.S. Opens and 3 PGA Championships come through town, so it certainly has the history to back its bid for a potential event location.
Top Courses in Denver
- Castle Pines GC (Former Home of “The International” event)
- Cherry Hills CC (Hosted 3 U.S. Opens and 2 PGA Championships)
- Colorado GC (Host of 2010 Senior PGA Championship & 2013 Solheim Cup)
Tulsa/Oklahoma City
Combined, Tulsa and Oklahoma City create the 21st largest TV market. It’s not just the TV market that makes these cities an attractive stop for the PGA Tour, however; it’s the quality of golf in the area. The golf teams at the University of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State University have developed more than 50 PGA Tour players, and continue to field nationally-ranked teams year after year. Add in some major championship history, and you’re looking at a solid site for a yearly Tour stop.
Top Courses in Tulsa/Oklahoma City
- Southern Hills CC (Host of 4 PGA Championships and 3 U.S. Opens)
- Oak Tree National (Host of the 1988 PGA Championship and 2014 US Senior Open)
- The Patriot Golf Club (Folds of Honor Home Course, Host of Patriot Cup Invitational)
Where do you think the PGA Tour should consider adding a stop? Let us know in the comment section below.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead
The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.
The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time.
Past Winners at Valspar Championship
- 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
- 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
- 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
- 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
- 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Copperhead
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)
- Tony Finau (+.90)
- Nick Taylor (+.81)
- Justin Thomas (+.77)
- Greyson Sigg (+.69)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)
2. Good Drive %
The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.
Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+91.3%)
- Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
- Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
- Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
- Aaron Rai (+89.7%)
3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
- Tony Finau (+1.24)
- Cameron Young (+1.17)
- Doug Ghim (+.95)
4. Bogey Avoidance
With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.
Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.
Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+9.0)
- Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
- Austin Cook (+9.7)
- Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
- Greyson Sigg (+10.2)
5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions
Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+1,71)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
- Cameron Young (+1.27)
- Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
- Justin Suh (+.94)
6. Course History
That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.
Course History Over Past 24 rounds
- Patrick Cantlay (+3.75)
- Sam Burns (+2.49)
- Davis Riley (+2.33)
- Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.04)
The Valspar Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).
- Xander Schauffele
- Doug Ghim
- Victor Perez
- Greyson Sigg
- Ryan Moore
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Sam Ryder
- Sam Burns
- Lucas Glover
2024 Valspar Championship Picks
Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.
Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.
Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.
In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.
Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.
Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.
In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.
Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.
Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)
Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.
It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.
It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.
Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)
Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.
Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.
In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.
Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.
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Opinion & Analysis
Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina
As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.
My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.
2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.
My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.
Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation
What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.
If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.
You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.
If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.
Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.
Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?
The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.
My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.
The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.
Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North
Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)
A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.
Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)
A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.
King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.
With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.
THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.
THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.
Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
- 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
- 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
- 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
- 2016: Jason Day (-15)
- 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass
Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.37)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
- Tony Finau (+0.99)
- Jake Knapp (+0.83)
- Shane Lowry (+0.80)
2. Total Driving
This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.
Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.
Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds
- Rory McIlroy (22)
- Akshay Bhatia (25)
- Keith Mitchell (25)
- Adam Hadwin (34)
- Sam Burns (+39)
3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.
SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.77)
- Sungjae Im (+1.72)
- Brian Harman (+1.62)
4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
- Tony Finau (+1.51)
- Tom Hoge (+1.48)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.18)
5. Par 5 Average
Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.
Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
- Doug Ghim (+4.34)
- Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)
6. Strokes Gained: Florida
We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well.
Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
- Doug Ghim (+1.78)
- Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)
7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger
With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
- Tony Finau (+1.62)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.49)
THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).
- Scottie Scheffler
- Shane Lowry
- Tony Finau
- Corey Conners
- Keith Mitchell
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Xander Schauffele
- Cameron Young
- Doug Ghim
- Sam Burns
- Chris Kirk
- Collin Morikawa
- Si Woo Kim
- Wyndham Clark
2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks
(All odds at the time of writing)
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):
Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.
Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.
Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.
Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):
In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.
Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.
Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.
Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):
History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022.
Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.
Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.
Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):
(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).
Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.
In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.
It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.
Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):
A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.
This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.
Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.
Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):
It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.
Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.
This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.
Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):
Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.
In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.
Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.
In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.
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laremy tunsil
May 6, 2016 at 7:08 pm
Colorado Oregon Washington
Richard Trickle
May 6, 2016 at 7:05 pm
I think a minimum of 3 events in West Virginia would be great. You could call it the West Virginia Swing and have a points race with free lifetime supply of skoal for the winner.
Loki Smizzle
May 3, 2016 at 5:16 pm
The tour has to dodge where a high percentage of minoritys live. Decent people won’t support anything after they take it over. I know everyone will hate this comment but just think about the last restaurant you was in that was minority heavy: it was terrible, wasn’t it?
Atty
May 4, 2016 at 7:59 am
You’re an a$$.
farmer
May 3, 2016 at 3:07 pm
Surprising the hole in the NW. Microsoft could sponsor an event, commercial free telecast, free food, and have a blip on their quarterly earnings report. All they need is a date, and for Bill Gates to stop carelessly trying to make life better for folks in underdeveloped countries.
Steven
May 3, 2016 at 2:00 pm
Since I live in OKC, I would love this. I do think the Tour would have to look past Southern Hills and Oak Tree National because both those courses want to host majors. However, we have 1-2 others (like Patriot Club) that could definitely host an event. Gaillardia Country Club hosted the Senior Tour Championship a few times, and our golf season is longer than most.
MP-4
May 3, 2016 at 12:04 pm
You would think that Microsoft or Amazon could sponsor an event in the Seattle area.
Don’t forget: TPC Snoqualmie Ridge, Salish Cliffs, White Horse, Gold Mountain, Suncadia, and Gamble Sands!
Brad
May 3, 2016 at 2:52 pm
Was in Seattle last summer and stopped by the TPC Snoqualmie Ridge clubhouse for a scorecard and a Boeing Classic polo…beautiful part of the country!
prime21
May 3, 2016 at 7:23 am
Gotta vote for Philly w/ Aronimink being the venue. While there are many great golf courses in the general vicinity, Aronomink is not only the best test of golf in the area, it also is a great layout for spectators. The array of local universities makes transportation easier to accommodate and I’m sure Pat’s & Gino’s would make it one of the favorite stops for food on tour (outside of New Orleans of course). Saucon Valley would also be great, but being a good 45 minutes outside of Philly, I don’t think it can really be considered “within the city limits”.
Evan
May 2, 2016 at 9:51 pm
I’ve been thinking a bit about this. Seattle is inconvenient for the tour schedule even though it has some of the most predictable and best weather in the summer. But US Opens and PGA championships should be held much more frequently in the pacific northwest and upper midwest to really capture larger golf audiences. The US Open at Chambers was a very big deal around here.
I can’t think of a better market/weather for the PGA championship than Seattle/PNW.
Another thought, the weather has been amazing around here lately. Why doesn’t the zurich classic move to Seattle?
B Clizzle
May 2, 2016 at 7:06 pm
Seattle…terrible weather
Detroit and Chicago…full of thugs and criminals
Colorado…trying to do Matt Every a solid
Tulsa/OKC…even the ppl living there don’t wanna be there
Andrew Beck
May 3, 2016 at 11:44 am
I’m not sure you’ve been to Seattle. From the end of June until the end of September there’s almost zero chance of rain. The skies will be blue. And at worst the temps will be in the 90’s, but more likely in the high 70’s to low 80’s. You can’t really ask for better weather than that.
Scott
May 3, 2016 at 11:44 am
wow, what a worldly view. I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Art Williams
May 2, 2016 at 4:06 pm
Philly should have a tour stop with all the great courses in the area and a population that loves and supports golf from Southern NJ to the Lehigh Valley and everywhere in between.
Mike Honcho
May 2, 2016 at 3:21 pm
Hands down, Chi-town. I don’t like the mid-West, mid-Westerners and Windy City sports team, the Blues Brothers can’t sing, could go on and on. But when it comes to golf courses, the town is not getting it’s deserved pro play.
Greg Moore
May 2, 2016 at 3:13 pm
LPGA is playing their Championship at Sahalee this year. Most of the issues with a new event is finding a sponsor who is willing to put up millions of dollars to host an event. The sponsors at established events are happy with where they are holding their tournaments. They’re not going to be happy if their tournament is moved.
reach4aheiney
May 2, 2016 at 3:11 pm
Wisconsin definitely needs to have a regular stop on the tour. Having a major every so often and the upcoming Ryder cup is nice but there are so many fans that I believe would agree. Whistling Straits could be reserved for majors and Ryder cups but the Irish course on the same complex could handle an event of that size without any issues and is a little easier to walk. Erin Hills, where the US Open is next year could host and event as well as The Bull, a Jack Nicklaus design, could also provide a challenging stop year after year. Having the Greater Milwaukee Open and then US Bank Championship was nice but the course that hosted it didn’t provide too much of a challenge and cannot be lengthened due to area restrictions.
Wa
May 2, 2016 at 1:47 pm
Weather has a lot to do with it, they’d rather go to places where it’s mostly predictable and good. Most of those other places are way too unpredictable and tremendously thundering when it does hit, season by season, and to try to fit it into the global golf calendar these days would be very difficult with the WGC getting in the way of bringing top names to smaller events.
Double Mocha Man
May 2, 2016 at 9:49 pm
Did you notice New Orleans this past week, weather wise?
GO
May 4, 2016 at 2:50 am
He said MOSTLY. Duh. Do you understand the English language?
Snowman9000
May 2, 2016 at 1:36 pm
All good candidates. Golf is big around Chicago. And certainly in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota too. The Quad Cities (John Deere) does give Iowa/Wisconsin/Minn/Illinois fans a tourney in the region. But it would be nice to have some kind of rotation involving the western great lake states.
Nick
May 2, 2016 at 12:24 pm
What about Philadelphia?
Merion
Aronimink
Pine Valley (though they would never host an event)
Philly Cricket Club
Lancaster Country Club
Huntingdon Valley
Saucon Valley
Brad
May 2, 2016 at 2:14 pm
Pennsylvania GENERALLY gets the US Open every year (although the west coast has been grabbing more and more bids). Personally, I associate Merion/Pine Valley/etc with the Open
Jim Reed
May 2, 2016 at 4:06 pm
GENERALLY???
8 times in 60 years…that is occasionally, not GENERALLY. The point that was being made is Philadelphia could use a tour stop and it could. There are significantly more world class courses in the region than on Nick’s list….and the largest metropolitan area to not host an event.
03 Blue 07
May 2, 2016 at 5:43 pm
Philly is the largest metro area to not host an event, you say? No, that would be the Chicagoland area, which is larger in population than the Philadelphia metro area by more than 33% (barely 6 million vs. over 9 million). Source: http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk
Tom
May 2, 2016 at 11:35 am
Too bad the PGA will never even consider Butler National for anything until they allow woman at the club.
ben
May 2, 2016 at 11:06 am
I just don’t see a regular event coming to Tulsa/Okc. Southern Hills would never host a regular tournament. I was kinda shocked when they hosted the Tour Championship in the mid 90’s. The Patriot is too easy for a tour stop. It reminds everyone of a resort style course. Oak Tree National would be great but it could be a challenge finding a sponsor with the state’s economy in the dump.
Matt
May 2, 2016 at 11:44 am
I doubt Oak Tree National would even want a regular tour stop. Something tells me they’d hold out for a major just like Souther Hills.
John
May 3, 2016 at 11:33 pm
Oak Tree hosted a senior event and everyone hated it. The course is all gimmicks and wind.
Lynn
May 3, 2016 at 11:02 pm
Agree with both comments here. Southern and oak tree won’t host anything but majors. More likely to have a web.com event, and plenty of good courses for that since logistics are easier with smaller crowds. Karsten Creek 45 min north of OKC (but Mike Holder, OSU athletic director wouldnt let this happen) Golf club of OK or Cedar ridge in Tulsa (Patriot is a nice course but wouldn’t hold up to web.com players) Gaillardia, Twin Hills or OKC g&cc in OKC. To extend that circle Prarie Dunes or Flint hills in Kansas would be great spots too.
Grant Janssen
May 2, 2016 at 11:05 am
St. Louis has a fantastic golf market and culture (we have one of only two Golf Galaxy superstores and a Club Champion for a reason), and with great courses like Bellerive CC (Senior PGA and PGA), Fox Run (LPGA, potential PGA stop if it gets in better shape), and others that could host an event for the Web.com Tour, the PGA tour is really missing out on a top market.
Chris
May 2, 2016 at 4:07 pm
St. Louis is a great place for golf. Spending four years in the city while playing collegiate golf I had the opportunity to play many courses. As stated above Fox Run could be a great test, it can tip out over 8000 yards. Only issue is its a bit far from downtown, otherwise great course. Dont forget about the like of Boone Valley, Old Warson, St Louis Country Club. Yes some may be easy as old school layouts, but hey who doesnt like seeing a birdie fest?
Lynn
May 3, 2016 at 11:06 pm
Fox Run is a BEAST! Caddied an open sectional qualifier there. From what I remember I enjoyed the course, a lot. And even in the qualifier we would get to a tee box and look back 80 yards and there would be another set of tees. All. Day. Long.
Mark
May 2, 2016 at 10:36 am
You think this is bad? Try living in England. The PGA Championship at Wentworth and one other event scheduled for The Grove, also out London. 2 million plus players, 42 million population and nothing north of the Greater London Area. The European Tour would much rather brown nose the middle east or China where the crowds, minus the guests, are negligible.
Brad
May 2, 2016 at 11:24 am
I really would LOVE to see a map of where all the European Tour events take place (similar to the one above). Would be interesting to see how many European Tour events take place in Europe.
Wa
May 2, 2016 at 1:44 pm
Why? That’s the same as asking the LPGA to show where they play in the WORLD. What point would it prove? They play where they want to play by mutual contractual and sponsorship agreements. They don’t have to play every event in Europe. Or the LPGA only in the US.
Brad
May 2, 2016 at 2:16 pm
No point to prove…just curious to see where every event is played.
I’d even take a Web.com/Champions/LPGA map
gmoney
May 2, 2016 at 11:06 pm
This would be great. Your next article??? It would be cool to see maps of European tour tour stops of the past 15 or so years to see how the events slowly move to asia
Double Mocha Man
May 2, 2016 at 10:24 am
Now that the Cubs are winning, Chicago doesn’t need any other sports. 🙂
And the photo looks like the City Park golf course in Denver, not one of the championship venues you listed.
QC
May 4, 2016 at 4:25 am
Lol Thats what I thought about the picture as well.
Nicholas Pursel
May 2, 2016 at 9:30 am
They really need a new tournament in Detroit. The city loves the game and is in desparate need of some fun activites to bring people downtown. There have been numerous attempts to get something going at Detroit Golf Club (my home course) and every single one fails for the same reasons, funding and finding a date. The tour needs to get back to Detroit, but I feel it won’t happen until someone shells out the money. Gilbert always acts like he does everything possible for the city but sponsers a tour event outside Detroit. They even backed out on a great event that would have featured Justin Timberlake, Mark Wahlberg, Rory McIlroy and Ricky Fowler playing under the lights in an alternate shot match. Its just a shame
Denny Jones
May 2, 2016 at 9:12 am
The Buick Open was in Grand Blanc, about 45 minutes north of Detroit. It was a great event and enjoyed by all. It is greatly missed.
CT
May 2, 2016 at 9:15 pm
Was played at a good course
Mike
May 2, 2016 at 8:48 am
Chicago has an event there every year virtually. Outside of 2008 I cannot think of a year where they didn’t have either the Ryder Cup or the BMW there?
Josh from Chicago
May 2, 2016 at 10:44 am
BMW Championship is only in Chicago every other year. So two years ago, 2014, there was no Chicago tour stop. Plus, the Champions Tour event up in the North Shore lost its sponsor depriving me of my chance to see John Daly tear it up with the old guys.
Brad
May 2, 2016 at 11:26 am
On the flip side, we did get a Web.com tour event this season as well as the LPGA’s UL Crown. Still miss the Western Open in July though…