Opinion & Analysis
Is competitive golf for you?
Many recreational golfers often wonder if they should dip their toes into the waters of competitive golf. This article will give you an understanding of what it’s like to play under the pressure cooker of a stroke-play event, and offer some ideas on how to pursue an amateur career.
Make no mistake, competitive golf is an entirely different animal from a Sunday morning round with your buddies. There are no gimmies, X’s on the scorecard for bad holes, and certainly no breakfast balls. Every shot carries more significance, and in the back of your head you know that one errant swing could cost you any chances of success.
That being said, it can be extremely fun! Starting an amateur career can open up a whole new dimension of golf for you, and give you an intense focus on what you can do to improve your game.
My Experience
I grew up playing high school golf, junior events, and a bit in college. I have lost count at this point, but I have played well over 100 rounds of tournament golf. Competition was always a mixed bag for me. I had the exhilaration of success, and the awful sinking feeling when I blew my chances of making the cut at the most important tournaments. I was never a standout player, but was good enough to stick around.
After college I took about a 10-year hiatus from tournaments and a couple of years ago I decided it was time to get back into it. I’d like to take you through the process I’ve gone through from finding events, setting goals, and dealing with just how different it is to play golf in a real competitive environment.
Setting Goals
In 2014, my goal was to get my handicap below 1.4 so I could compete in the U.S. Open Qualifier the following year. I had started the year around a 4, so I had some serious work to do. Because my goal was extremely specific, and not completely far-fetched, it helped me focus on what I needed to do to get there.
I took a hard look at my game, and decided that in order to reach that level I needed to put some serious work into both my short game and fixing errant tee shots. More importantly, I needed to play more golf. There is no substitute for improving at this game other than live action.
Sixty rounds later and some serious time spent practicing on the range and in my backyard, I ended the year at a 0.7 handicap. It might not sound like a lot, but moving from a 4 handicap down to almost scratch is a huge jump. There were many bumps along the road, but I kept my focus on the goal and I was happy to get there.
Having the goal of playing in the U.S. Open qualifier is what kept me practicing hard all year, and I strongly believe that it was the main factor for my huge drop in scoring. If you are looking to get into competition I would recommend setting some goals for yourself based on the level of golf you’re looking to compete at. Not all tournaments have such a low handicap requirement, so it’s best to find one that represents a reasonable level that you can achieve. Don’t go thinking you can drop from a 13 handicap down to 2 in six months though!
The Tale of Two Tournaments
Now that I had spent 2014 getting my game in gear, I had registered for the 2015 U.S. Open Qualifier and another amateur event that I found through our local golf association. After a brutal winter that ended late, I only had a few weeks to prepare for the qualifier, which was in May. I continued my work on the range, and tried to play as much as possible leading up to the tournament, and I felt my game was as sharp as it could be.
Since this was my first competitive round in more than 10 years, I tried to be reasonable with my expectations, and I urge you to do the same if you are just starting out. You never really know how your game is going to react in a tournament situation. I told myself that if I broke 80 at the qualifier I would be happy with myself. If I’m being completely honest, all I really wanted to do was not make a fool of myself and get banned from ever trying to qualify again by the USGA!
The day of the tournament I was pretty nervous. I showed up to Bethpage State Park a few hours early, which was probably a huge mistake. After walking around the practice green and the range I could see that the field was a mixture of college players and seasoned pros.
What am I doing here?
My warm-up session was a bit terrifying to be honest with you. After going through my normal routine for about 20 minutes, all of a sudden I started shanking 8-irons. It was like a scene out of Tin Cup. I looked back at my friend who was caddying for me that day, and we both gave each other a look that clearly said, “uh oh.”
After watching player after player bomb 300-yard drives off the tee of the intimidating 450-yard opening hole, I was in full freak-out mode. I was about a 9 out of 10 on the nervous meter.
My first tee shot was horrific, a pathetic duck hook that landed in the worst part of the golf course. Luckily a marshal was able to find my ball in about 2 feet of rough. I pitched out, and somehow managed to make a bogey.
Then something funny happened. All of the nerves went away, and my routine took over. I went on to have a great round. Despite some shaky putting and a double on No. 18, I shot a 76 in difficult conditions. I ended up 63rd out of roughly 120 players. I had finished ahead of some great golfers, and felt pretty good about myself.
I had achieved my goal, and all of the preparation before the tournament had paid off.
What Goes Up Must Come Down
Here’s the thing about competition, and golf in general really: It has a way of humbling you pretty quickly if you get a little too conceited.
My next tournament was a qualifier for a pretty important local amateur event. I knew that I had to shoot roughly 5- or 6-over in order to make the cut, so there was a very specific number in my head beforehand. I had never played the course, but it was only 6,100 yards, and I assumed that it would be no problem to overpower it and make the cut.
Expectations are a funny thing in golf. At the U.S. Open Qualifier I knew I didn’t have a realistic chance of qualifying, and I really had nothing to lose. However, in this tournament I was fully expecting to make the cut.
When you play in a tournament all of your deepest fears as a golfer are exposed. Shots that you aren’t completely confident over all of sudden are magnified 100 times more than a normal round. On the third hole I was faced with a 30-yard bunker shot, which is by far and away the shot that terrifies me the most as a golfer. There was water over the back of the green, and all I could think about was not blading it into the drink.
Well that is exactly what I did, and I made a triple bogey.
It was completely embarrassing because my playing partners were all in line to make routine pars, and they had to wait for me to clean up my mess. There was a terrible sinking feeling walking off that green at 4-over par after only three holes. All of my momentum was completely gone, and the rest of the round was a blur of bogeys, self-doubt and embarrassment. I ended up shooting an 85, and was not even close to the cut line.
At the scorer’s table I couldn’t help but laugh at myself for the way I had felt before the round, and what transgressed on the course. It was only my second tournament back into competitive play, and I realized that I had gotten way ahead of myself. Lesson learned.
It’s a Mixed Bag
So what can you learn from my experience? Well, a few things hopefully. If you are interested in pursuing an amateur career in tournament golf you need to be prepared, and I mean that in a few ways.
- Planning: Make sure you give yourself plenty of time to select the tournaments you want to play in; it could be as much as a year in advance in some cases.
- Preparation: If you are serious about success, your game needs to be ready. Don’t expect to show up to a tournament without having played or practiced much and perform well. Set specific goals that are reasonable and measurable.
- Expectations: Your mind needs to be ready. Tournament golf is nothing like a normal round. There are no safety nets, and if this is a new experience, you need to expect the unexpected. Anything can happen out there, and it’s OK!
What Tournaments Can You Play In?
The first thing you have to do is find actual tournaments to play in. The best place to start is your local golf associations. For example, in the New York Metro area we have the MGA, Long Island Golf Association, and New Jersey Golf Association. They all run a bunch of tournaments for golfers at various levels.
There are also some national resources where you can find events like the Golf Channel Amateur Tour. Amateurgolf.com is also a fantastic resource because it has a searchable database of tournaments.
Each event will have registration guidelines such as age and handicap level. My advice is to pick two or three events on the calendar that you think you want to play in. It’s best to start off slowly if competitive golf is new for you.
Competition can be extremely fun and rewarding. It also can be terrifying and embarrassing. Everyone who has ever competed at any level can attest to this. Dealing with the highs and the lows is part of the deal, but there is no substitute for experience. The more tournaments you play, the better you will be at handling the pressure. Start off slowly, and try to have fun with it.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla
The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.
The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.
Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.
Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.
The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.
Past Winners of the PGA Championship
- 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
- 2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
- 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
- 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
- 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
- 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
- 2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
- 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Valhalla
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.
Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Shane Lowry (+1.25)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
- Jordan Smith (+1.05)
- Tom Hoge (+.96)
- Corey Conners (+.94)
2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
- Keith Mitchell (+.90)
- Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
- Ludvig Aberg (+.82)
Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs
Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:
- Jon Rahm (+2.56)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
- Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
- Shane Lowry (+1.57)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses
Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.60)
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships
One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
- Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
- Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
- Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens
Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
- Justin Rose (+0.93)
- J.T. Poston (0.87)
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways
Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:
- Justin Thomas (+1.53)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
- Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.23)
2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).
- Brooks Koepka
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Shane Lowry
- Alex Noren
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Young
- Keith Mitchell
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Billy Horschel
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Adam Schenk
- Chris Kirk
- Sahith Theegala
- Min Woo Lee
- Joaquin Niemann
- Justin Thomas
2024 PGA Championship Picks
Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)
At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.
Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.
Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.
In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.
Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)
Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.
At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.
Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.
Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.
Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)
There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.
Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.
Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.
Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.
Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)
I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.
Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.
Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.
Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.
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In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.
At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.
It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.
And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.
I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.
But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.
If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.
To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.
There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.
Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.
The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.
First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.
And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”
So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.
More from the Wedge Guy
- The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1
- The Wedge Guy: The easiest-to-learn golf basic
- The Wedge Guy: Golf mastery begins with your wedge game
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title
The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.
After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.
Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.
Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.
The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.
Past Winners at Quail Hollow
- 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
- 2022: Max Homa (-8)
- 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
- 2019: Max Homa (-15)
- 2018: Jason Day (-12)
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
- 2016: James Hahn (-9)
- 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)
Key Stats For Quail Hollow
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Corey Conners (+1.01)
- Shane Lowry (+0.93)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.82)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
- Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
- Chris Kirk (+0.52)
Proximity: 175-200
The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.
Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:
- Cameron Young (28’2″)
- Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
- Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
- Sam Burns (+30’6″)
- Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)
SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs
Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.
SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
- Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.57)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Taylor Moore (+0.82)
- Nick Dunlap (+.76)
- Wyndham Clark (+.69)
- Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
- Cam Davis (+.61)
Course History
This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.
Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):
- Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
- Justin Thomas (+1.96)
- Jason Day (+1.92)
- Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.78)
Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).
- Wyndham Clark
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Shane Lowry
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Viktor Hovland
- Cameron Young
- Austin Eckroat
- Byeong Hun An
- Justin Thomas
2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks
Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)
I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.
Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.
Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.
For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.
I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.
Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)
It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.
Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.
The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.
Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.
Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.
Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)
For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.
Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.
The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.
Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.
Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)
Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.
Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.
An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.
Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.
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mizuno29
Feb 24, 2016 at 8:48 am
Excellent article!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jon Sherman
Feb 24, 2016 at 8:57 am
thank you 🙂
John (ChipNRun)
Feb 23, 2016 at 11:28 am
Well written article. “Facts” are all there and the story flows well too.
The article brought back lessons of summer past, when I played in the local amateur circuit tournaments for the first time. The point about “all of your deepest fears as a golfer are exposed” is all too true. In half the rounds I had a blow-up hole (my deepest fear) where I mishit a shot… overcorrected.. and mishit again… the longest walk in golf is going up to green to try and sink a 3-foot putt to salvage a 10.
For those entering competitive golf, chalk up the first season to just learning how to play in tournament conditions. There’s a lot of mental trash that bothers you in year one – it goes away. One thing: ask the course marshal pre-round about any unusual local rules or conditions, and how to handle them. I got several bits of bad rules advice from am circuit veterans (it ended up costing me strokes when I could have gotten relief). Make sure you review the rules of golf before you enter the tournaments.
The good thing is, I got to play some fairly big name courses, and post my own score. The problem with scrambles is you get to play top courses, but you don’t get your OWN score. One such course was Glen Echo CC here in St. Louis. Build by Old Tom Morris protege Jim Foulis, it hosted the only Olympics golf tournament back in 1904. In the championship match, Canadian star George Lyon defeated defending US Amateur champ Chandler Egan 3-and-2. No. 15 tee has a plaque commemorating this fateful hole, in which Egan pulled his tee shot into the lake and pretty much lost the match. (Small victories: I put my drive into the fairway).
Jon Sherman
Feb 24, 2016 at 8:57 am
thanks John!! Appreciate you taking the time to read it
Jp
Feb 23, 2016 at 8:09 am
Great article. I love competing now. It’s a great feeling and motivator to overcome the mental as well as physical. Great journey. I’m a 3 now and if I get down to a 1 I’ll go from winning occasionally to winning a lot in the local matches. Can’t wait !
gary
Feb 22, 2016 at 6:28 pm
Playing tournament golf will improve your course management and the way you putt. When playing with your buddies it is just hit driver and get the putt to the hole. Who wants to hear “nice putt Alice” Tournament golf is a different animal. Every shot counts. Every shot needs 100% total commitment. Problem is everyone has a comfort zone and the guy that shot 66 couldn’t handle the round of his life. My comfort zone is even so if I shoot -2 on the front pretty much guarantee you I’ll find a way to shoot 2 over on the back. If I’m +3 after nine I’ll find a way back to even par. Golf is a funny game. Tournament golf is a serious game.
Scott
Feb 18, 2016 at 10:49 am
Another fun read on trying to play tournament golf is:
Paper Tiger: An Obsessed Golfer’s Quest to Play with the Pros
Book by Tom Coyne
viking62
Feb 18, 2016 at 8:31 am
I can relate a little bit with respect to expectations. I took up the game late in life and in my mid 40s decided to try tourneys – my first tournament (Ont Public Player) but the field was flighted so I was in the B group – I had no expectations – didn’t really even know the rules – made the cut and finished 7th – I was thrilled.
The next year my handicap improved and I was in the A flight – I looked at the handicaps and figured I was the worst player there so figured I’d never make the cut – I finished 4th – actually had a chance to win but tripled the 17th.
The next year brimming with confidence I qualified for the Ontario Mid Am – went there expecting to do well – got there and immediately felt inadequate – was instantly horrible – hooked first drive 75 yards left – played a provisional when it was red staked and was forced to play my provish – double, followed by a triple and I felt like an ass.
I’ve honestly never hit the ball as well as I did leading up to that tourney accept when playing alone or with close friends. Expectations seem to have overwhelmed me.
Ron
Feb 18, 2016 at 12:40 am
Jon, Thanks for telling your tournament experience – and to the rest of you who also added your stories. Here’s mine: I played young (junior golf, HS, college) without ever being particularly good or competitive. After a hiatus from golf for well over three decades as real life took over, I started playing recreationally again. After retiring I started playing a lot, my index dropped to the low-to-mid single digits, so at 72 decided to enter our county senior am tournament. I knew I couldn’t win, of course, I was in grad school when some of these guys were born – and I hadn’t played in an actual tournament since my senior year in college. But it gave me a great excuse to work on my game with some purpose. I shot 75 in round one – the same score I shot on the final day of that intercollegiate championship fifty years earlier. So I told my kid my half-century tournament average was 75. In what other sport is something like that even possible?
Matt
Feb 17, 2016 at 8:03 pm
Jon,
Really enjoyed the article. Can relate to the grind from a 4 to a scratch. Even after getting to around a .4 handicap, it was very difficult to stay at that level in college with less time to play. My hope is to play enough throughout my twenties to avoid that drop to a mid level handicap.
Our company is looking to keep players from having that 10 year lull you had. That lull certainly makes it difficult to stay sharp and people in their twenties often miss out on competition due to time or cost. You mentioned the state association and Golf Channel Am Tour as great outlets for competitive rounds which I totally agree with. For those 18-34 year old readers, they should also consider our Nextgengolf City Tour events for younger players across the country. If this was around when you were finishing your college days, you would have been a great fit to compete while still balancing your busy everyday life with kids and a job. Hope this helps supplement your article with some other ways golfers can stay sharp and have fun!
– Matt
Jon Sherman
Feb 18, 2016 at 12:47 pm
Thanks for chiming in Matt. I absolutely would have loved to play in these events when I was younger! That’s really a great idea for that age group because the competitive juices are still flowing pretty strongly, it’s just hard to find an outlet for them sometimes with golf.
ken
Feb 17, 2016 at 7:27 pm
LOL…..our tour is flighted. So the expectation that the other people in my group have done the same thing or worse, is highly likely.
I find the ball and hit it again. What are ya gonna do? Stress? Its a GAME..I have played in a few “open” tournaments where the USGA index is used to come to a Net Score. In those events, i have found there are lots of great guys. And of course there are guys that are “Living the dream”. These guys tens to act like guys like me aren’t worthy of the same turfgrass as they.
That is until they realize i play just as fast or faster than they. One thing I have noticed about playing against low handicappers that are grinders and real serious is if I am waiting on them to hit their next shot….It bugs the crap out of them…Worse yet…..Hit it inside of them from the fairway or a par three……LOL…makes ’em NUTS
McGruff
Feb 24, 2016 at 9:54 pm
No one cares how fast or bad you play.
James
Feb 17, 2016 at 2:52 pm
Great article Jon. You’ve motivated me to get my butt into gear to shave 3.8 off my handicap to qualify for my club’s major tourney each year. Coming from athletics background I can add that nerves are cruel mistress that can strike you down and ruin years of prep for an event. Ask any Olympic sprinter you train for four years and have one crack at getting it right…..at least in golf we have the next shot!
John
Feb 17, 2016 at 2:23 pm
Another thing to remember that will definitely help…THE OTHER GUYS DON’T CARE! It used to really affect me when I would hit a bad shot and do something dumb because I thought everyone else was thinking about it as much as I was. I finally realized that many of the guys I played with hit their share of bad shots, and while I might have felt a bit sorry for them for a split second, I was focused on my own game and didn’t really give them a second thought, and I’m sure they did the same thing when I hit a bad shot. That took a lot of the pressure off and really helped my game.
Great article!
Scott
Feb 18, 2016 at 10:40 am
+1
MIKAH
Feb 17, 2016 at 2:10 pm
You wasted so much time getting to scratch. Everyone on WRX knows is that all you need to do to get to scratch is buy a set of blades! DUH!!
Luis
Feb 17, 2016 at 2:02 pm
Jon
Can you provide a sense of how much you played/practiced in 2014 to get yourself ready? 2-3 games a week? practice 5 days a week? what about conditioning, how were you able to squeeze that in?
thank you – great post!
Luis
Luis
Jon Sherman
Feb 18, 2016 at 9:13 am
I tried to get about 2-3 solid practice sessions in a week. A lot of that was concentrated on honing in my wedge distances, and improving my putting. My game inside 100 yards was one of my weak links. On top of that I would say I averaged about 2 rounds a week for a 6 month period. Some weeks I was able to play and practice more, and others less. It’s obviously hard to squeeze golf in with family and work obligations. I will say I have an amazing wife who is extremely supportive!!!
M-Herd4
Feb 17, 2016 at 11:12 am
Great article Jon! I can completely relate to overwhelming nerves. I played in a few tournaments on my highschool team and shot a 108 in the last one I played. Took a 14 on the 2nd hole of the day! I’m 46 now and played in a NY State Mid-Am qualifier a few years ago and scraped it around all day for a 92. I love the thought of playing competitively but my nerves take over to the point where I completely lose my focus and thought process. This game can mentally scar you for sure. I love the game though and maybe some day I’ll find the courage again to try my hand at some competition.
OH
Feb 17, 2016 at 10:29 am
Great article! I’ve been playing on the GC Am Tour for a couple years and love playing competitive golf. I’ll never qualify for the US Open but it’s still fun to get out there and compete. There are a lot of great options available for amateurs today at some incredible courses around the country. I think the GCAT is a solid option for a broad range of handicaps to “dip their toe” into competitive golf. Just remember, though, you aren’t playing for a paycheck so keep the ego in check and have fun. I’ve seen way too many guys get all worked up like they are playing a Monday qualifier for the Open.
Rob
Feb 17, 2016 at 10:01 am
I’m don’t want to sound demeaning, as I play a lot of amateur tournaments at both the state and national lever, but why would you spend $150 to sign up for US OPEN local qualifying with the goal to only break 80? Seems like a bit of a waste of money. Or were your goal really to qualify?
Jon Sherman
Feb 17, 2016 at 10:23 am
Overall it was something to motivate me to improve my game. I always wanted to play in a U.S. Open qualifier. Was I capable of actually making it out of that first round? Absolutely. I actually hit 14 greens that day, and anyone who was at -1 got in the playoff for what I believe was 8 spots. So in an alternate universe where I was putting well that day I certainly had a shot (easier said than done). That being said, I tried to be reasonable with myself. If I went in there thinking I was going to qualify I don’t think I would have played as well. In the future I am just going to be playing in local events, and probably won’t play many USGA tournaments.
Nick
Feb 17, 2016 at 4:19 pm
These qualifiers are often at nice golf courses and they allow a practice round. Heck, that’s a bargain for two rounds at most of the qualifying sites in my state tournaments. He shot 76 in a U.S. open qualifier, that’s more than commendable considering his time away from tournament play.
ken
Feb 17, 2016 at 7:30 pm
I know……The type of tournaments Jon is playing are under conditions as tough as they can get( unless it is a USGA event) for Amateur golfers.
I think going out and breaking 80 on a relatively difficult course while playing among golfers that can shoot lo 70’s or even high 60’s is good experience.
If not to win, but to prove to one’s self they can do it.
Scott
Feb 18, 2016 at 10:46 am
I have to agree with the responses indicating that it is $150 well spent. No one wants to embarrass themselves, but playing for something cool on a great track is well worth $150.
Simz
Feb 17, 2016 at 3:35 am
Thanks for this! Much appreciated.
I am looking to play more competitive golf this year, starting with the Club Champs. I wont pursue an amateur career, as I’m way over the hill…but definately more tournaments. It’s pretty difficult with a full time job & family, and I squeeze in all the practise & lessons I can.
Thanks again & all the best in future tournaments!
Jon Sherman
Feb 17, 2016 at 8:49 am
thank you! It’s definitely a time-consuming endeavor. I am only planning on playing 2-3 tournaments this year as we have two young children. Luckily I have enough space to fit a practice net in my basement so I can get in some practice sessions here and there. Definitely need to get creative with it when you’re short on time.
Other Paul
Feb 17, 2016 at 12:32 am
I have had such a great virtual golf season this winter and improved so much (controlling a hook took time) that i really want to play amateur golf. So this article was a great read for me. Just cant wait for the snow to melt. Also I found a pro that is willing to take me under his wing (He is playing competitive golf already and doing well).
Jon Sherman
Feb 17, 2016 at 8:52 am
If your goal is to play more competitive golf, I think it’s important to work with a pro who has tournament experience. Coaching is just as important as instruction when gearing up to play in some events.
Andrew
Feb 16, 2016 at 8:29 pm
Unusual to have unanimous consent on a WRX article – I will add to it: great article both personal and informative. Many thanks Jon!!!
Jon Sherman
Feb 17, 2016 at 8:47 am
thanks Andrew! glad people are enjoying the read
dwc
Feb 16, 2016 at 7:33 pm
Not just a great article but do yourself a big favor and check out the author’s website “Practical Golf”. I did so this morning. It contains a wealth of great information including tips and reviews. Definitely one of the best golf sites I have used. Thanks Jon!
Jon Sherman
Feb 16, 2016 at 7:54 pm
thanks for checking out the site!
Johnny
Feb 16, 2016 at 2:33 pm
Great Article Jon, it was a pleasure to read! Playing in tournaments is where you really develop a passion for the game. I believe the only way to truly develop the game is to get more people (especially juniors) involved in competitive golf at whatever level. Tournament golf is the most rewarding and the most soul crushing activity that you can take part in. A couple years back in our club championship I shot 66, 86 making an 8 on the last hole to lose by 1 shot. Brutal, but I still love it! Can’t wait till this white stuff goes away, and I can start grinding to get my game ready for this year.
Jon Sherman
Feb 16, 2016 at 3:17 pm
thanks Johnny, glad you enjoyed the read. 66-86 is certainly a hard pill to swallow, but it keeps you coming back for more!
Ronald Montesano
Feb 16, 2016 at 4:43 pm
It does? Maybe him, but I know fellows who would have broken all their clubs, torched their bag and gone to a monastery to pray for clarity. Johnny, you are more man than many men. Any success stories in subsequent club championships?
Jon Sherman
Feb 16, 2016 at 5:06 pm
haha I guess I was thinking about that opening round 66. John does certainly have resolve for continuing on after heartbreak like that.
Alex
Feb 17, 2016 at 9:23 am
This is what competition is about. Especially golf. You have awful days, but you always believe the next will be a brilliant round. Last year I only won our Fourball Match Play competition, got two runner-ups in stroke play and played all year round. Had some terrible rounds, a subpar round and some good scores in the wind. Playing gets to to accept the bad days and get over.
Johnny
Feb 17, 2016 at 9:57 am
That 86 came thanks to strong wind mixed with a lot of nerves. I didn’t torch my bag or brake all my clubs, but I had to search for clarity in a bottle of Johnny Walker that night. Unfortunately, because of work commitments I was unable to play in the club championship last year, so I missed my chance at revenge. Hopefully I will get the chance this year. I live in Germany, and over here the opportunity for competitive events is endless. Each club has a team and the team travels and plays all the clubs in the area. Also, at least a couple times a month there are stable ford events. I did my fair share of winning last year, but nothing would be sweeter than lifting that club championship trophy up this year.
Alex
Feb 16, 2016 at 2:11 pm
In my country we play tournament golf every weekend. Club competitions, Open tourneys, Match play championships. I don’t play that much these days but I still love tournament golf so there’s a bunch of us who used to compete a lot when we were kids and we really enjoy tournament golf.
We don’t have a lot of time to play but we all have some short focus-oriented practice sessions. Competitive golf is totally addictive and we all want to play our best.
Cliff
Feb 16, 2016 at 12:46 pm
Not sure what it is but I seem to play better golf in tournaments. Maybe my decision making is better. Once in a tournament I topped my driver on the first hole. Only used driver 2 times that day.
Erik
Feb 16, 2016 at 10:01 am
I’ve played in “hundreds” of tournaments myself, starting in high school, college, USGA, etc. The big factor for me was once I got over being “embarrassed” by my bad shots I had nothing to lose. Who cares if you skull one over the green, every player at this level should be good and have enough respect to realize that this happens to everyone. Just as in life, it only matters how you react to that bad shot going forward. Are you going to let it mentally end your round, or are you going to let it go and move on to the next shot.
Jon Sherman
Feb 16, 2016 at 10:14 am
I think this is an important point for most golfers to take note of. EVERYONE who has played tournament golf has had moments that are completely embarrassing. You may have had a great start, and are settling into your round, then all of a sudden you make a terrible swing that rocks you to your core. Being able to deal with that moment is the hardest thing to do in competition, and takes a ton of experience to overcome.
Erik
Feb 16, 2016 at 10:48 am
Hole 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Par 4 5 4 4 3 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 3
RD 3 3 4 4 3 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 4
17 18 Tot
Par 5 4 72
7 5 75 +
Do you mean something like this Jon? 🙂 -3 after 2, finish +5 over the last 5 holes, shoot a 75 and miss the cut by 1.
Jon Sherman
Feb 16, 2016 at 11:30 am
ugh, I know that feeling. One moment I will never forget is making bogey from 100 yards out in the middle of the fairway on the last hole of my final high school tournament. Missed the cut by one stroke.
15+ years later and it still stings!
Dan
Feb 16, 2016 at 9:52 am
This honestly might be my favorite GolfWRX article ever. Loved reading the 1st hand experiences. Great advice.
Jon Sherman
Feb 16, 2016 at 10:11 am
thanks for the kind words Dan, glad you liked it!
Tom Allinder
Feb 23, 2016 at 9:41 pm
Dan, I agree. Best article ever on GolfWRX.
Ryan
Feb 16, 2016 at 8:44 am
A great start for many players is amateurgolftour.net – the Golfweek-sponsored amateur tour. Last I checked there were 44 tours nationwide, mostly East of the Mississippi. Ability ranges from Champ Flight (3hdcp and better) to D flight (19+). No, I don’t work for the tour, but I do play on it. Getting 25+ competitive rounds a year is very helpful and takes the 9 out of 10 nervousness down several notches. I play it for fun, for gift card money to buy golf stuff (total club ho here) and as warm-ups for local and state amateur events.
Nick
Feb 16, 2016 at 8:12 am
I would say that I think you can almost practice too much to where you play poorly in an event. I think that happening to me one year really should me how to always take a relaxed approach into tournaments. But the realistic expectations are a good reminder. I have played better and won tournaments when I didn’t really have many expectations. It relaxes you and allows you to play more naturally.