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Is it possible to have premium wedge game if you use a budget golf ball?

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Everyone knows that golf is an expensive sport and golf balls are one of the costs of playing, but do you really have to use expensive golf balls to give yourself a chance to play your best?

Most golfers have gone to their local golf store and bought the 15-ball pack, and they soon find out that budget golf balls are not designed with feel in mind. But are they really that bad for your game? Do they spin that much less on wedge shots, making getting up and down even more of a chore?

To find out, I tested four relatively inexpensive golf balls that are widely available at golf shops across the country, as well as four premium golf ball models.

Spin Test: Budget Balls v. Premium Balls

The four budget golf balls I tested were:

To perform the test, I hit multiple wedge shots from 60 yards and selected the highest-spinning shot with each golf ball model. I wanted to see the maximum spin value I could achieve with each ball. As a PGA Professional and scratch golfer, I feel confident that the results are reflective of how each of the balls will perform for most golfers.

Before we get into the results, let’s first discuss the ideal amount of spin a golfer should generate from 60 yards.

To keep my test as unbiased as possible, I contacted a few teacher and fitter friends of mine on Twitter. You probably recognize at least a few of their names. They are some of the most knowledgable teachers and fitters in the world, and use Trackman on a daily basis. They offered their thoughts on the optimal ranges for spin, launch angle and landing angle on shots from 30-60 yards. 

Andrew Rice (@andrewricegolf)

  • Suggested Spin Rate: 6,500-9,500 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 26-30 degrees

Kirk Oguri (@kirkoguri)

  • Spin Rate: 6,000-8,000 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 28-30 degrees

Jon Sinclair (@jrsii)

  • Spin Rate: 6,700-10,000 rpm
  • Landing Angle: 32-38 degrees

Cool Clubs (@coolclubs)
Fitters: Mark Timms, Justin Nelson, Allen Gobeski, and Rob LaRosa

  • Spin Rate 6,000-7,400 rpm
  • Landing Angle: 38-41 degrees

Based on their expertise, it seems that golfers need spin rates of at least 6,000 rpm, as well as launch angles around 28 degrees and landing angles in the mid-to-upper 30-degree range to create ideal stopping power from 30-60 yards. 

The Test: Budget Balls

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 3.51.58 PM

For those of you interested, I hit the 60-yard shot with the four budget balls with both my 56- and 60-degree wedges, which are the same model and have the same shaft. You can see the results in the Trackman screen shot above. I found that the 56-degree wedge tended to spin more than the 60-degree with every ball except Callaway’s SuperSoft because of something called spin loft, which I will explain in more detail in next week’s article.

My peak spin rates with the four different balls ranged from 5031 rpm to 7266 rpm with my 56-degree wedge, which is a huge range considering that I only selected the highest-spinning shot. Here’s how the balls measured up.

TaylorMade AeroBurner Pro

  • Peak Spin Rate: 7,266 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 23.7 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 37.8 degrees

Titleist Velocity

  • Peak Spin Rate: 6,540 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 25 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 31.9 degrees

Nike RZN Red

  • Peak Spin Rate: 6,410 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 23.5 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 28.9 degrees

Callaway SuperSoft

  • Peak Spin Rate: 5,031 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 24.8 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 28.7 degrees

The Test: Premium Balls

Next, I took four premium golf balls and hit the same basic shot, also looking at peak spin rates with each model of golf ball. The balls tested were:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 3.52.15 PM

With the premium balls, I found that I carried the shots about 4 to 5 yards longer on average. The extra distance created a little more spin, but nothing that would skew the results. I also did not hit shots with my 60-degree wedge this time, as I learned from my budget ball test that my 56-degree was the higher-spinning wedge for this shot.

Peak spin rate for the premium balls ranged between 7,639 rpm and 8,298 rpm, a considerably tighter range than the budget balls offered. Here’s how the premium balls measured up.

Titleist Pro V1

  • Peak Spin Rate: 8,298 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 22.1 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 37.7 degrees

TaylorMade Tour Preferred

  • Peak Spin Rate: 7,828 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 21.3 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 36.2 degrees

Bridgestone B330 RXS

  • Peak Spin Rate: 7,682 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 23.2 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 38.1 degrees

Srixon Z-Star XV

  • Peak Spin Rate: 7,639 rpm
  • Launch Angle: 18.9 degrees
  • Landing Angle: 34.1 degrees

Conclusion: Don’t be cheap with your balls

As you can see from my results, budget balls simply do not spin as much as premium golf balls. So while you might be saving as much as $26 per dozen on your golf ball purchase, my test shows that you could be losing as much as 3,267 rpm of spin on the 60-yard wedge shots that are often crucial to your score.

To put that in perspective, imagine if shots with your driver started spinning just 1,500 rpm more or less. It would completely change your ball flight off the tee. I’m here to say that adding just 1,500 rpm of spin around the greens can completely change your wedge game, too, and help you achieve a more ideal wedge trajectory for increased stopping power.

I know that golf is an expensive game, but if you’re looking to perform your best on the course one of the worst places to save money is on your golf ball. That’s why the best golfers in the world exclusively use premium golf balls, and why I recommend that serious golfers use them as well.

One last thing. Keep in mind that the spin rate numbers from the test represent the highest-spinning shots recorded with each golf ball model. So if you’re hitting a shot from the rough or have a dirty or wet club face, you will have even LESS spin than you see in this test. Clean your grooves and club faces before each shot so you get the most out of your wedge game!

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Tom F. Stickney II, is a specialist in Biomechanics for Golf, Physiology, and 3d Motion Analysis. He has a degree in Exercise and Fitness and has been a Director of Instruction for almost 30 years at resorts and clubs such as- The Four Seasons Punta Mita, BIGHORN Golf Club, The Club at Cordillera, The Promontory Club, and the Sandestin Golf and Beach Resort. His past and present instructional awards include the following: Golf Magazine Top 100 Teacher, Golf Digest Top 50 International Instructor, Golf Tips Top 25 Instructor, Best in State (Florida, Colorado, and California,) Top 20 Teachers Under 40, Best Young Teachers and many more. Tom is a Trackman University Master/Partner, a distinction held by less than 25 people in the world. Tom is TPI Certified- Level 1, Golf Level 2, Level 2- Power, and Level 2- Fitness and believes that you cannot reach your maximum potential as a player with out some focus on your physiology. You can reach him at [email protected] and he welcomes any questions you may have.

88 Comments

88 Comments

  1. Benny

    Dec 26, 2015 at 7:35 pm

    I liked this article even though it is something many of us already knew. I am also a believer that spin helps around the green. Pros can turn spin on and off more than us and also hit the ball MUCH harder than you Armchairs. Lets face it, most of us here suck so a cheaper ball probably works fine for us. I remember 5 years ago Golf Digest has a winter article “Best Ball for the Bang” and NXT’s won. Maybe this was a bought article, maybe not, all I know is I have shot just as low a rounds with NXT’s and Prov’s. All this really proves is opinions are like a-holes, we all have one and many of us are them. Thx as always WRX for helping me laugh on the couch!

  2. Ted

    Oct 1, 2015 at 12:19 pm

    More interestingly, the TM Aeroburner Pro was within 600 rpm of the Tour Preferred, and with a better descent angle. Mr. Stickney carefully said “you could be losing as much as 3,267 rpm of spin”, but that’s true only by comparing the highest spinning premium ball, with the lowest spinning budget ball. The difference is much, much smaller if you look at the highest spinning budget ball and compare to the lowest spinning premium ball.

  3. KN

    Sep 23, 2015 at 6:32 pm

    Great objective test results, Tom. I only wish you had used the 60 degree wedge on the premium balls, just for consistency’s and (my) curiosity’s sake. Your test results have confirmed what I have believed for over 15 years now, and that is the most important piece of equipment in your golf game is your golf ball, because you use it for every shot. Why not give yourself the best chance for the best outcome by arming yourself with a ball that will perform capably and consistently? I believe that as soon as you can both come through impact square and make contact on the center of the clubface more often than not, you should employ a “premium golf ball.” My game totally changed when I made the switch from a harder “budget ball” to the Titleist Pro V1. Yes, I put the range time in to improve my long iron game, my driver, and especially my wedge shots (of course, on the range, you’re stuck with whatever brand your local driving range chooses to serve you, but it’s the swing I’m talking about), but when I did hit the links, I absolutely noticed an immediate, positive effect. Indeed, the benefits of a $50/dozen ball is probably going to be lost on a beginner or a high handicapper. There is a learning curve to these purebreds. That doesn’t make those that use these high-end balls better people. It just helps make them better golfers.

    • JR

      Sep 24, 2015 at 2:40 pm

      I disagree with that statement. A smart golfer knows what his ball will do and plays to its advantage and capabilities. For example let me play out a scenario for you. You are in the exact same spot and chip with a wedge while you have a prov1 and a budget ball. Knowing you can cause backspin on a prov1 and get the ball to walk back 1 foot you shot 1 1/2 feet past the hole. The ball bites and rolls back 1 foot and you are now 6 inches from the hole for an easy putt. Now knowing your budget ball will roll 4 feet instead of spinning and biting you shot 4 1/2 feet short of the hole. The ball lands and rolls 4 feet and you are now 6 inches from the hole for an easy putt.

      At this point in both cases you have a 6 inch putt, and the only difference is the cost of the ball. So in reality to tell people to buy the most expensive ball because it will work is hog wash, because anyone knowing what their ball will do and doesn’t do, should and smartly play to that balls ability. If it rolls, you shot short and watch it roll to the hole. If it spins and stops dead then aim closer to the hole. In either case, if done smartly you will get the same outcome, a short putt.

      • KN

        Sep 30, 2015 at 7:54 pm

        That’s a nice story, but it’s only that: a story. Not every pin is nicely plunked onto the middle of the green so you can “roll” your budget ball up “4 feet” to “6 inches from the hole for an easy putt.” Ever short side yourself? Ever put your budget ball in a bunker right next to the pin? Ever have to fly a sand trap or a hazard and stop it cold? These may be more stories to you, but I’ve seen and done all of these successfully, thanks to my Pro V1. So if you’re okay with hitting your second shot onto the green, then watching it run right through and off the back, keep playing your Top Flite or Wilson or Slazenger or whatever. I guess you’ll have to learn to “roll” it up to the hole, no matter what the ball encounters on its way there. Part of learning how to play golf is learning how to control your golf ball. You’re only advocating controlling ONE aspect of it: roll. What about spin, direction, height, speed, deflection, etc? Your whole rebuttal is based on a fantasy “scenario,” then you try to tell me that “reality” is: Don’t tell people to buy superior-performing products, because we are only as good as the ball we play. (?!?) Your argument is invalid.

        • JR

          Oct 1, 2015 at 8:07 am

          So my scenario is an extreme example, but don’t sit here and act like those things you list out can’t happen with a ProV1 or any other high end ball. I’ve seen plenty of ProV1 roll off the back of a green on a chip, just as I have budget balls. I’m not saying learn to play the roll either. I’m saying learn to play your ball. I’ve seen good players take a crappy budget ball and get the spin they want out of it and play just fine with it. What I’ve never seen is an average player take a ProV1 and use the ball to its advantage.

          I’m in no way saying don’t buy ProV1s or any high end ball. I’d buy them myself if they were cheaper, but it is naive and extremely disappointing to read how people think they are incapable of playing golf without a high end golf ball. That is simply not the case. If you can’t play golf or shoot your average score with any random ball, then you sir, are not that good of a player in my opinion. I have seen scratch golfers play cheap, expensive, budget, lost n found, and all other kinds of balls and still shoot their average. You don’t have to use the most expensive ball just to be good.

        • Kuba

          Oct 1, 2015 at 8:17 am

          This made me laugh. Are you seriously pissed off because you pay top dollar for a ball and based that as why are as good as you are? That is like saying go buy the best, most expensive clubs and you will take 10 strokes off your game. You realize that is what you are arguing right?

          Neither point is good. ProV1s can over shoot a green just like budget balls, and I’ve seen it happen. I’ve seen budget balls bite and stop dead on a green just like a ProV1. You don’t need a ProV1 to be the best.

          The ball you play does not make you good player. Your skill is what makes you a good player.

  4. Mr. Wonderful

    Sep 22, 2015 at 8:28 am

    First off, nice article. I like how you explore the spin rate of the ball and the effects it has on wedge play. However; those are not budget balls. Budget balls are sub $20 a dozen. More like $16 a dozen, or even cheaper. A real budget ball would be Nitro Blasters for example $8 for 15 balls, and Wilson makes a ball that is even cheaper than that. I’ve played with the Nitro ball and will tell you that it will roll and roll forever off a diver, but the spin is not there around the green and you tend to get way too much roll. So that is one reason why I agree with this article.
    Second, this doesn’t appear to take into effect the club used or the skill of the player. I have a good friend who has an excellent wedge play and he has very low spin. He has basically mastered his particular wedges, and balls that he uses (ProV1s of course). So that tells me that even high class balls don’t always get the spin, the club itself plays a huge roll.
    Third, is my conclusion. My conclusion based on your article and what I’ve seen, is to play your wedges and stick with one ball, regardless of price. Playing a Nike ball on one hole and a Titleist on the next hurts consistency, and you’ll never really improve the wedge play. However; if you practice using the same ball, budget or not, and learn how to work your wedges, it really doesn’t matter what ball you use…

  5. Lefty19

    Sep 22, 2015 at 7:42 am

    Nice article- please take those same golf balls used and see what happens with the Driver….

    Thanks,
    David

  6. Anonie

    Sep 11, 2015 at 7:08 am

    None of the balls were hit at the recommended angles. Does that mean the fitters are wrong?

  7. marcel

    Sep 7, 2015 at 2:21 am

    there is a reason why similar tests are not done by pros with trusted consistent swing. youd realize that the cheap ball does the trick.

  8. KK

    Sep 6, 2015 at 12:13 pm

    I would say that although it depends on your game and the course, higher spin balls offer more versatility and ability to attack and reach pins in tight positions. That’s never a bad thing.

  9. birly-shirly

    Sep 6, 2015 at 4:38 am

    Testing is good. Data is good. But how about the interpretation? There’s nothing in here to suggest that the serious scratch golfer’s needs might be different from the serious mid to high handicapper. Nor is there any account taken of different playing conditions. I get the point if you’re always playing baked out, fast running tournament conditions – but that’s not everyone, not even on wrx. I think that’s where some of the negative comment is coming from.

  10. Steve

    Sep 5, 2015 at 6:58 pm

    Backspin on a pitch or chip almost always leaves the mid to high handicapper father from the hole then if he just pitched or chipped a ball that runs out a little. I have played in a lot of A,B,C,D player scrambles and watched the majority of A and B players using “Pro Balls” leaving just about every short pitch and chip short while the C and D player are knocking their “Noodles” close enough to save par for the group…and yes I am the famous B player that handed the so called 4 handicap A player a ” top flite “and said “Try chipping with that, we need to score lower to be in the money”.

  11. michael

    Sep 4, 2015 at 11:51 pm

    I use the noodle plus easy distance for swing speeds 80 mph and under and it works fine for me yes a little more roll out but for the price its not that bad. I don’t see how this test is valid any ways its people like myself that need a better spinning ball. There are more people with my swing speed than those with the so called slower swing speed. We need a ball that performs better at our swing speed than other players.

    • Joshuaplaysgolf

      Sep 5, 2015 at 12:37 pm

      Umm…80mph is a pretty low swing speed and would be considered a ‘slower swing speed’ as you put it. Nothing wrong with that, but you completely contradict yourself in saying that people with slower swing speeds need different balls, and then indicating you play a noodle…a softer ball and definitely a budget ball. Nothing about this article is invalid. He tested 8 different balls and posted the numbers. Those are facts, not opinions. The clown David Ward saying ‘how much did titleist pay you for this?’ HE JUST PUT UP THE FACTS, AND FOR ALL THE BALLS, not just titleist. Also, for all of you over reacting, read the whole article. It says at the bottom ‘why I recommend that serious golfers use them as well.’

      In no way would it be effective for a high-handicap player to use a prov1. Totally valid that you will probably lose more than you can afford in a round, and again, there is nothing wrong with that. It doesn’t matter how good you are, just that you love the game…but don’t come on here crowing about in valid tests or titleist bias simply because you don’t have the confidence to put the upper level of equipment in play. It’s like looking at a test between a cavity back and blade iron, and saying the numbers of the blades are invalid and biased because, well, I’m not good enough to hit blades and I don’t like that the science says they preform better. Simply put, if you have the ability to consistently hit the little ball before the big ball, your going to get better results out of a higher-quality ball. Yes you can compensate for roll, but not every shot allows you to let the ball run out 10-20 feet. Sometimes it’s essential to be able to stop the ball as quickly as possible, and that can be the difference between getting up and down, or 2 putting for bogey. For those trying to shoot low scores, again, who this article is targeted towards, it matters. Don’t get sad over facts.

      • michael

        Sep 5, 2015 at 9:28 pm

        I have played for over 40 yrs and I have been a single and more recently and mid handicap due to work etc… But my statement was and is that most slow swing golfers do not need to be playing a prov 1 or a high priced ball to be successful or to be able to put spin on a short shot. The ball I used I hit a nice shot from 89 yards and it spun just fine for me I am not looking to be on the tour I am looking to get my ball at least 10-20 ft from the hole and may be closer if the pin is not a sucker pin. I am proud to use a budget ball as you say. I cannot afford and really don’t want to pay that amount of money for a ball that does not suit my game. I understand he used 8 different balls but my comment is about slow swing golfers that could use a golf ball that does not cost up to 50.00 a dozen and is not designed for that type of swing speed. I have a problem with ball makers that make a ball that is not made for the majority of players such as myself yet you have titleist stating that their most expensive ball is for my swing speed which it is not. Even the DT solo is not designed for my swing speed it is designed for the swing speed of 85-95 mph. So I would challenge the person that made this test to find or test golf balls for the people that swing in my speed range. with balls that are in the 20.00 per dozen range. Then show me how this can help my game. By the way I have put the so called upper golf balls in play and to be honest I was not that impressed especially at that price range. I feel that a golf ball that performs well should not cost that amount of money.

        • parker

          Sep 13, 2015 at 2:50 am

          I have a significantly higher driver swing speed than michael but I also use “budget” golf balls with great success… it’s literally apples and oranges. At the end of the day, the individual needs to choose a ball and play the ball based on the expected results. A “front of the green and roll” golfer has the potential to play as well as a “drop and stop” golfer. But I would posit from my own experience that spin and check, no matter how you get it, gives a golfer much more margin for error. But what do I know, I’m a high DD handi and I don’t buy premium balls… I “free” them from my local driving range 😛

  12. J Brent

    Sep 4, 2015 at 11:43 pm

    Personally, I love the a lot of the viewpoints you offer on your website Tom. Some really good stuff even if I don’t agree with everything based on my personal experience. The actual spin data from your shots is really interesting since most of us do not have a trackman to hit with. Why can’t people appreciate the fact that this is supportive information? I read stuff like this to see if there is something I can learn, rather than to be an armchair a$$ who wants to find something to bitch about. Keep up the great work!! It’s amazing how many people I run into that will comment on info they have seen on your website.

    • Tom Stickney II

      Sep 5, 2015 at 10:57 pm

      Thx J…I just try to do articles that make people think. I don’t know it all but I’ve spent 22 years teaching full time in the lesson tee so I know something. Armchair guys are everywhere; if they really knew anything we’d be reading their articles.

      • Shallowface

        Sep 6, 2015 at 1:06 pm

        Wow. That’s one of the most arrogant statements I’ve ever seen here, and that’s saying something. Really disappointing.

        • WILSON

          Sep 8, 2015 at 12:25 am

          sounds like something a butthurt 15+ handicap armchair know-it-all would say. Leave the instruction to the professionals, please.

          • Cliff

            Sep 8, 2015 at 12:44 pm

            There’s a good saying “people who can’t, teach”

          • Shallowface

            Sep 8, 2015 at 2:29 pm

            Not at all. I just find it interesting how threatened the WRX authors (not just Mr. Stickney) are in general by the idea that someone may have a different point of view.

            The free exchange of ideas is a good thing, and occasionally you’ll find someone whose main goal is getting themselves over. But at least those posts offer food for thought.

            • Tom Stickney II

              Sep 8, 2015 at 10:13 pm

              Shallow– have no problems with criticism or people whom disagree with my opinions but uneducated posts are tiresome. I have no reason to try and “get myself over” as I’m happy where I am professionally.

              • Joe

                Sep 23, 2015 at 8:12 am

                I don’t know why you guys continue to write at all with all the arm chair cowboys…. Keep up the good work!

        • KN

          Sep 23, 2015 at 5:31 pm

          Enough with the drama, shallow. Pull up your big-boy pants, read the FREE professional statistics and advice, and come to your own conclusions. So sad you’re disappointed, but save it for the ladies and the Solheim Cup (no offense, ladies).

  13. EH

    Sep 4, 2015 at 1:00 pm

    Whatever suits your game. For me, budget golf balls = roll out and premium balls = check up. I rather have control around the green.
    The results may vary based on your experiences, but data backs it up.

    • Steve

      Sep 5, 2015 at 7:04 pm

      I would think if you like using premium balls you actually need to practice with it more then if you just keep using the budget balls as you learn quick how the budget balls rolls out, but you need to learn when a premium ball may stop….(and it is usually a lot father from the hole then you want). Most 15 or above handicappers are going to play stop, run, stop, run with a premium ball, might just move down to a 12 if you used a budget ball till then.

    • Craig Clark

      Sep 6, 2015 at 9:40 am

      Want the best of both worlds? Try the Maxfli U/6 at Dicks Sporting Goods. Urethane covers. 6 layers. Spins like a Pro V-1. (or better). I’m a 2 handicap and folks tell me I can get up and down from a trash can. (Which is where my irons hit it sometimes). The Maxfli gives me complete control of my short game – I know what it’s going to do every time, from any lie. And the best part is I just bought 2 dozen for $45.00. (BOGO). A couple of years ago the Maxfli was the only ball tested by the USGA to be rated Low Spin off the driver and High Spin off the wedge. It’s a super golf ball…

      • Fred

        Sep 13, 2015 at 2:04 pm

        The Maxfli U6 is soooo underated. I play ProV1’s and find the Maxfli U6 to be as good or better than the Prov1 around the greens.
        Now, if they only sold them in Canada.

      • rer4136

        Sep 17, 2015 at 12:36 pm

        Glad that someone spoke up about the Maxfli U6 line of balls. The U6 LC is a great ball for slower swing speeds and has incredible feel around the green. Give it a try and I believe you will like it.

  14. munihack

    Sep 4, 2015 at 12:15 pm

    Tom-
    Your response sadly is typical from a person who doesn’t pay for golf balls. I may be wrong but Johnny Miller won his British Open with a surlyn ball as did John Daly. And touring pros play what their contract allows. Your atricle refers to playing your best and I gave you evidence I am doing it with a ball that spins less than a pro v. The point I am trying to make is the amount of spin matters to the extent you can control it. Not every golfer has the skill to control 60 yard wedge shots no matter the ball. Most of them would benefit from managing their game so they don’t have that shot to begin with. To extend your perspective more the old balatas spun more than pro v’s so they should have been the ball of choice between the 2 but we all know how that turned out.

    • Steve

      Sep 5, 2015 at 7:01 pm

      You cant argue with mellonhead, he has never been wrong, he is the smartest person he knows

  15. Jason Alcock

    Sep 4, 2015 at 11:46 am

    I did a blind test on myself by accident. I was sure that I was playing my usual Srixon ZX ball. I played 12 holes and was pretty miserable with my game around the greens. Unbelievably the ball was just not working right, a reject in some form. So I decided to swap balls, even though this one was unmarked.

    Looking closely before I ditched it, the penny dropped, the ball was actually a loose Srixon AD333 from my bag, one I had accidentally covered the ball model marking with my alignment mark.

    I’m definitely not a “feel” player and only mid-handicapper. And while I adapt to playing a budget ball (especially in winter) I’d still agree that the added control is worth the money.

    • mario

      Aug 15, 2016 at 10:48 pm

      Well my perception is quite the opposite… The Z star is a rock, same as a Pro V1x and is nasty around the greens. The AD333 tour is only a budget ball by its price, but is pretty much as long as the V1 -no difference with the irons, maybe a loss of 5 yds with the driver into the wind-. It’s the best all around ball I could find so far especially for shaping iron shots and for flop shots.
      The Wilson DX2 goes the extra mile down this road, being the softest thing I’ve ever come across. I only use it when the course is rock hard but I shot 69 the first I used one (playing out of 4).
      And I have really no interest for marketing speech saying that the 333 tour is for swing speeds of 80-95mph. I swing a solid 105 and the ball reacts fantastically. I could not bear the sound of the Z star on my driver, felt like damaging it.

  16. dapadre

    Sep 4, 2015 at 10:41 am

    Thanks for this Tom. But in all honesty speaking from personal experience and seeing other hackers, you dont really get all the advantages of a good spin/3 piece ball UNTIL your ball striking is good and repetitious enough. In fact I have seen and experienced that these high spin balls actually can hurt a golfer in that it will also exaggerate slices and hooks. Its hard to say at what level but I would argue that if you are above 15 HCP, there is really no need. Once you can control your club face a bit better, then yes. Just my humble opinion.

    • parker

      Sep 13, 2015 at 3:00 am

      I agree with your comment in principal, but I have actually witnessed with my own eyes a premium ball HELP my 60 yr old high handicap father GAIN distance in his iron shots. In his case, left and right was never his problem, he struggled mostly with fat and thin shots. We have both noticed that with higher spinning balls (not necessarily “premium”) that the added spin adds a “float” of an extra 5-10 yards, and also a nice stoppage effect. We are both always amazed at how for the two of us, the Srix Z* doesn’t fly very high, but goes far and always stops on the greens.

      I’m convinced that if you can sort out left/right issues in your game, more spin is better than less.

  17. Ironhorse723

    Sep 4, 2015 at 9:53 am

    Wilson DUO…end of discussion. I’ve always been a super high spin player, now instead of clubbing up so that I can account for the backspin bringing it to the front of the green/pin I can go right at it. One hop and sits. Excellent ball that flies forever!

    • dapadre

      Sep 4, 2015 at 10:38 am

      @Ironhorse723, I have to agree with you here. By the way you also have the new DX3 spin (thats what its called in Europe, not sure whats is called since here in Europe the Duo is called DX2 soft) which is actually a DUO but 3 piece with more spin. Im using it now and if you like the DUO, you will absolutely love this one.

    • NotSoFast

      Sep 5, 2015 at 9:38 pm

      Agreed. I’ve been playing the Duo for three years and frequently toss a ball to the guy who inquires what I’m playing. Most love it and switch from their premium ball saying they like the feel and performance of the ball from driver to putter and especially their wallet.

  18. KS

    Sep 4, 2015 at 9:44 am

    Great article Tom. I just have to comment because you see it time and time again. I typically think more of the golfing community but responses here prove we are not all gentlemen. You try to do some testing, you are a professional in your field and write a great article that isn’t necessarily a one size fits all but is very informational and often a good starting block. From the start the armchair quarterbacks bash the article, typically miss the point of it and often discount the writers credibility. It would be great so see people contribute respectfully rather than a know-it-all a$$hole but in todays world that must be asking too much. Keep on writing Tom. Good reads whether it fits me and my game all of the time or not.

  19. Jayw

    Sep 4, 2015 at 4:29 am

    Recently, my golfing friends and I have been in search for a good performing golf ball at a decent price. Our driver swing speeds vary from approx 90 to 105 max. We are all retired and play a lot of golf. The PRO V1 and V1X’s are definitely fantastic golf balls from tee to green. However, they are too expensive for our budget. The results from your test are basically what we have experienced in normal play with inexpensive vs expensive golf balls. I would like to see results from this test performed on many more (brands) of inexpensive golf balls. I believe that there are some inexpensive’s out there that perform just as well as the expensive for lower swing speeds, i.e., 90-105. The only way to know for sure is to test many different brands. We’ve also tested some Lady golf balls that spin like crazy. More testing would be much appreciated.

  20. JeffL

    Sep 4, 2015 at 3:59 am

    Just today, I hit a Wilson Zip (75 cents or so per ball) to a small back tier in a green, a full sand wedge 90 or so yards downwind. It hit just about pin high, bounced 7 feet or so, then backed up a few feet. Do I want more spin than that? If it backed up a few more feet, it would have rolled down to the lower tier.

  21. CD

    Sep 4, 2015 at 3:28 am

    Tom, how are you a scratch golfer? Don’t you have to give up having a handicap when you turn pro? Isn’t that the point of the PAT?

    What does construction of the have to do with it? Eg I can get a range ball to back up on grass from 60 yards, but the distance is down through the bag. This is despite a ‘hard’ feel (granted that might be sound I’m hearing, but these are two piece range balls)

    • Stretch

      Sep 4, 2015 at 12:23 pm

      All golfers whether pro or not should have a handicap. Whisper Rock in Scottsdale has a lot of members that play the Tour and all have a handicap.

  22. ders

    Sep 3, 2015 at 11:57 pm

    I am nowhere near good enough to use a good golf ball. From anything greater than 60 yds out I aim for the center of the green and I’m happy if I hit it. A few months ago I was playing a par 3 course by myself and played 2 balls: a proV1 vs a sports authority tommy armour 2 dozen for $10 ball. The crap ball tended to roll off the back of the green, the titleist rolled off the front of the green. There were more back pin placements that day so I shot 2 strokes better with the crap ball. I’m sure if I tried the same test on a course that I was hitting a driver, I would have sliced the high spinning proV1 into the trees on the right on the first hole.

  23. jcorbran

    Sep 3, 2015 at 11:49 pm

    Just curious as to why you used a Bridgestone b330 rxs for swing speeds under 105 mph and a Srixon z star xv for swing speeds over 105 mph?

    • Fruity

      Sep 4, 2015 at 3:37 am

      Because that’s how those are recommended.

      • jcorbran

        Sep 4, 2015 at 7:03 pm

        he chose 1 ball for the slower swing speed and 1 ball for the higher swing speed so 1 ball was not the correct choice, according to the manufacturer, skewing the numbers, should have chosen both balls for same swing speed either way.

  24. Desmond

    Sep 3, 2015 at 11:11 pm

    Some budget-minded, offended folk here…

  25. Steve

    Sep 3, 2015 at 10:34 pm

    Mellonhead,
    As per your expert all but one of the budget balls were within range

  26. Munihack

    Sep 3, 2015 at 10:14 pm

    This article is arbitrary. First who wants a 60 yard shot? Second anyone who studies golf balls at all knows they are designed to behave differently with a driver vs. a wedge so the 1500 rpm comparison makes no sense. Third spin only helps if you know how to use it. In my case I am shooting the lowest scores of my life with a top flite gamer soft which I started to use in January as a winter ball. My first round I tied my personal best on my home course with a 64 (my hdcp is +2). It replaced the 330 rx I used last year. It is longer off the tee and chips and putts consitently. And the non sale price is $20 per doz. Any instructor who says everyone needs pro v spin is a salesman.

    • Tom Stickney

      Sep 3, 2015 at 10:57 pm

      Muni–

      If that was even close to true then pros would be playing the distance balls as well since they can get anything they want.

      • Fruity

        Sep 4, 2015 at 3:36 am

        Exactly, Tom.

      • brian d

        Sep 4, 2015 at 1:04 pm

        Tom,

        But isnt that more because pros know how to control their spin and know exactly how their ball will react due to the perfection of their strike? I watch alot of my friends use premium balls and when they chip its a crap shoot. Sometimes the ball checks up way short and some times hops past the hole and rolls out. I have found using a cheaper ball to help at least as an amateur, since I know on my chips, I wont get any check. I use my loft to get the ball to stop and I have found I have been more consistent due to eliminating the “odd spinner” ( the ball that checks up 10 feet short when I feel I hit it the same as the ball tha trolled out.

        Also, I am sure pros need the spin more, as they are playing on rocket fast greens with fairly difficult pins where you need spin to even think of getting it close. Most courses will have a few tucked pins, but I feel most amateurs are more trying to get the ball on the green, or even on a specific quadrant of the green vs throwing it over the top of the flag.

        My guess is if a pro wanted to use a distance type ball, their sponsor would still stamp “prov1” or make them a Prov1 that reacted similar to say a nxt tour.

  27. John Grossi

    Sep 3, 2015 at 9:45 pm

    I remember an old tour pro was asked by an amateur, how he could spin his shots like the pro. The pro said that the amateur should be moving the ball forward, not backward. I let most of my shots run out. If I short side myself, l throw my 60 up hopefully within 10 ft. to have a par chance. Also, I can hit a low compression ball further then the prov v. I know how it reacts on all my short shots. I agree people who are paid to play golf should be using the top spinning ball, however not the amateur.

    • Fruity

      Sep 4, 2015 at 3:40 am

      Unfortunately, what this doesn’t explain is how the DIMPLES react differently to the air, drag & lift.
      Many of these softer balls actually fly LOWER, whereas the harder balls fly higher. Just look at the box of dozen of the Pro-V, it’s all explained right there. So when they talk about getting fit, it’s going to involve how the players hit their balls high or low, as well.

  28. Ken

    Sep 3, 2015 at 9:04 pm

    Well, I’m a 65 year old 8.2 HC and play our course at 6500 yards. Today’s round was one of my best … a 74. On the first hole I teed up a ball I found (since I wasn’t sure where in the hell it was going), it was a Nike PD Soft. I putted out on 18 with the same ball. With the right ball, I may have shot a 62 … I guess!

  29. Joe

    Sep 3, 2015 at 7:12 pm

    There is a flaw in this test, that is that people were the only testers. People are not consistent, a more complete test would have included Iron Byron. Iron Byron is consistent and would have been a truer test.

    • other paul

      Sep 3, 2015 at 8:36 pm

      Iron Byron doesn’t swing like a human and is therefore irrelevant in this test. Do you really think you are the first person to think that a robot should hit all test shots? Yeesh.

      • Joe

        Sep 4, 2015 at 2:30 pm

        You are making my point. Iron Byron does not swing like a human, therefore, test with Iron Byron are consistent with no variation. People have a wide variance in their swings and are inconsistent.
        That is why I suggest that both methods be used for comparison. Consistency is what counts.

  30. Jimmy

    Sep 3, 2015 at 3:42 pm

    Since when is $27 a dozen considered a budget ball. I never pay more than $20. Anyone who pays $4-$5 and isn’t a pro level golfer is just insane. They’re simply not good enough to make solid contact and get 8000 rpm out a pro v1. Definitely a case the Indian not the arrow. Save you’re money buy cheap balls. You’ll have more fun because you won’t be worried about the cost of losing a ball.

    • Christestrogen

      Sep 3, 2015 at 5:02 pm

      Or go to any used golf ball site and get AAAA perfect used prov1s or b330s for about $1 each…..
      ***During the majors they typically have ridiculous sales.

  31. Nolanski

    Sep 3, 2015 at 3:18 pm

    I notice the differences myself. The best spin around the green I’ve gotten is with Bridgestone E5(cheap) but they are like hitting a wiffleball off the tee so I stopped using them.

  32. Charlie

    Sep 3, 2015 at 3:14 pm

    Not an endorsement, as mentioned earlier…

    Lostgolfballs.com

  33. Southpaw

    Sep 3, 2015 at 2:40 pm

    Interesting read, I usually read most of the articles on wrx but bottom line is that it is the golfer and not the ball. Same with clubs, its always the golfer and not the equipment unless you have a huge gash in the side of the ball or scuff its your fault you didn’t put it close. I play penta tp urethane, stops and spins just fine. When will we blame ourselves for not being great at this impossible game haha….. When you hit it 15 past the hole was it your putters fault??

  34. LD

    Sep 3, 2015 at 2:07 pm

    How many strokes am I giving up per round with my budget wedge game?

  35. Scooter McGavin

    Sep 3, 2015 at 1:49 pm

    I feel like I can save myself some time with these articles. Seems like whenever the question is “Should you spend more money on your golf game?” the answer is always yes. I wiff the ball twice and then top it 10 ft., do I need to get fitted? Yes… Do I need an extra thousand rpm of spin around the green? Yes… Is it worth spending $400 to get 4 more yards out of my drives? Yes.

  36. T Young

    Sep 3, 2015 at 1:38 pm

    I enjoyed the article, but would love to see this done on a larger scale. More than 4 balls, and more than one brand of wedges. Titleist, Cleveland, TM, PING, Scratch, Mizuno, Callaway wedges with all the premium balls vs a handful of budget balls, would be a fantastic read. Thanks again
    -T

    • petie3_2

      Sep 17, 2015 at 12:09 am

      I used to have a slice. Had it for 40 years. Cured it in 20 minutes. Hit a small bucket of balls, a 7 iron is fine, a driver is better, with a camcorder and Tripod recording it from behind, so you can track visually the path of the clubhead through the ball. If you think you are coming straight through the VCR will show you an outside-in path and a slice. Be your own teacher. I’m 71, a 13 handicap and shoot 77-84 normally.

  37. Scott

    Sep 3, 2015 at 1:34 pm

    7000 rpm’s with the aeroburner pro? Sounds like a good deal to me. Enough to make you consider it if cost is a factor…and it certainly is for me. So I’m not sure this is such a no-brainer since our decisions aren’t made in a vacuum.

  38. Blazman11

    Sep 3, 2015 at 1:15 pm

    I’m a believer that the middle tier priced balls (with exception of chrome soft) should never be purchased. There are too many premium ball offerings and many sales available for us to save a considerable amount of money.

    Always take advantage of the proV buy 3 get one free promo in the spring.

    Srixon and Nike usually run buy two get one free deals on their top end balls at some point.

    I picked up a few dozen of the Wilson Staff provx equivalent for $20 a dozen over the winter and they are fantastic balls.

    I do personally think the provx is the best ball for me. I get the most distance and green side control with this ball. However there is no need for me to play a provx during every single round since there are casual rounds mixed in and that’s when I pull out the Zstars. If I’m playing by myself or in early spring when I’m not testing new/different clubs even cheapies like a Duo or used balls are fine.

    Bottom line is just be a smart consumer. There are so many very good options available that will allow you to play premium balls at a $20-30 price point per dozen.

  39. Jamie

    Sep 3, 2015 at 1:10 pm

    I don’t think this article means that if you are playing a goat path to go out and buy some Pro V-1’s and your wedge game will dramatically improve. There are other factors that can change spin rates…the type of fairways and greens that you are playing on can have a dramatic effect on spin as well.

  40. Jordan

    Sep 3, 2015 at 12:59 pm

    The answer for most players is in the middle. For a 10-25 hcp the best balls to are most likely NXT Tour, chrome +, e6, project a – balls that spin nearly as much as tour balls, are more durable, and cost less. In my own Flightscope tests, NXT Tour and Pro v1 differ in only a few hundred RPM on partial and full wedges, and only differ on driver distance by a few yards. If money is no object, play a Pro v1, if not play NXT Tour or Chrome +. You’ll sweat it less when you lose them.

    • Philip

      Sep 3, 2015 at 8:30 pm

      I’ve found that the recent non-urethane balls are really closing the gap with the $$$ balls. It is only recently that my level of game has gotten good enough to use the spin to stop in 2-3 yards on the green. I used to choose balls based on feel around on the green (Titleist still wins for me, even the current NXT Tours). My overall favourite ball are the HBTs, however, I’ve used some Hex Controls I’ve found among the trees and I find they bite the greens and cut the wind just as good as the HBTs. Currently I’m using NXT Tour S because I wanted a yellow ball in the fall with early dusk and I love ’em. I’m at the point I often get a round or more out of a ball, but I’m in no rush to burn up more expensive balls.

  41. Bobby

    Sep 3, 2015 at 12:29 pm

    This is all bs it all depends on if you want to check the ball or let it run out ……I’m a scratch golfer and use top flights …this test makes no sense at all

    • Miguel

      Sep 3, 2015 at 2:26 pm

      I don’t know but I have shot my best scores with Pinnacle’s and Dt Solo’s. I never buy Premium golf balls and if I use them, they are the ones I find from the bushes. I can never justify paying for a premium golf ball when I can shoot low 80’s and high 70’s with my cheap used Pinnacles.

  42. Greg V

    Sep 3, 2015 at 12:26 pm

    What about balls in the mid-price segment, such as the Bridgestone e6 and Titleist NXT Tour that a lot of mid-handicap players use?

    • Jordan

      Sep 3, 2015 at 1:02 pm

      Greg, NXT and Chrome + are really, really similar to Pro v1 in spin rates in my Flightscope testing within 300-400 RPM. The extra cash goes to the softer feeling cover, and a few yards of driver distance (like 1-3 yards if your SS is 100-105).

  43. Mat

    Sep 3, 2015 at 12:10 pm

    Agreed. If you can’t be bothered to pay $1 additional per ball, you are doing it wrong.

    • Ted

      Oct 1, 2015 at 12:23 pm

      Mat, I play occasionally with some high handicappers that lose 6-10 balls a round. That adds up. And even if you can afford it easily, it can still leave a psychological scar.

  44. Steven

    Sep 3, 2015 at 12:09 pm

    Tom,

    Thanks for another great article, but I have two questions.

    First, is this relevant for mid and high handicappers who can’t put that much spin on the ball regardless of what ball they play?

    Second, you tested the balls from 60 yards out, is that the yardage where concern for a high spinning ball begins?

    Thanks.

    • Mat

      Sep 3, 2015 at 12:11 pm

      Question – does the high handicapper hit a ball with that much spin? Are we talking good shots, I assume?

  45. Jonny B

    Sep 3, 2015 at 11:56 am

    If price is the major determinant for not buying tour-caliber balls, try shopping for used balls online. LostGolfBalls routinely has Mint Condition prior-gen proV1s for under $20/dozen. They have any ball you would probably want to play, usually for 1/3 the cost of new. There are a few other sites out there like LGB as well.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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