Opinion & Analysis

Inside the world of counterfeit golf clubs

Published

9 years ago

Mar 25, 2015

Barney Adams

This story was selected as one of the 15 best GolfWRX stories of 2015!

Allow me a bit of forecasting, for those of you planning to buy clubs in the upcoming years. Start saving your money.

The TaylorMade scenario of pushing the market with constant product reached the predictable overload, with the company’s drop in sales giving way to margin-driven efforts. This means higher prices by the major manufacturers, and retailers being held to honoring suggested retail prices. Translation: More out of your pocket when it’s club-buying time.

Some of the lesser-selling brands can view this as an opportunity by striking lower price points. This is nothing new, and past efforts have not been enormously successful. Think of it as “We’re just as good and we cost less.” And the truth is they are just as good, but by selling for a lower price they send a message that they have to because they don’t perform as well.

We may well see the return of counterfeits — not that they ever completely disappeared — but the rapid-release cycle made it difficult for them to compete. By the time they were available, the copied model was already on discount and the “new and better” model was out.

The subject of counterfeits takes some explaining. There are “knock-offs,” which are loosely defined as being very similar to a specific brand, but they do not have the trademark. On reasonable inspection, you can tell they are not the real thing.

Counterfeits are exactly that. They look exactly like the intended product, including the trademark. Knock-offs are legal (and there can still be litigation over brand deterioration), but counterfeits are definitely not.

For the sake of this story, I’ll use the terms interchangeably even though they are technically different. The heads come from China, and equipment manufacturers source in China. So why don’t they switch to the U.S. and protect their brand?

At Adams, I was personally involved in switching from a U.S. source to a Chinese manufacturer (Taiwan in those days). Two dynamic reasons:

The price was much less
The quality much better

The job is to provide your customers with the best product at the best price, so the sourcing was inevitable.

Casting, the process by which most current clubs are made, requires hand grinding and polishing, and it must be done with great accuracy to look right and match the weight specs. Hand grinding foundry cast products is essentially one of the labor functions that the U.S. market couldn’t fill, or it did so at a cost per head that was prohibitive. It’s a lousy job and I speak from experience spending a summer working in a black sand iron foundry in 1956. It’s a miracle I still have my fingers, but the $0.80-per-hour pay was tall cotton in those days.

So along with most of the rest of the golf equipment industry, we got our heads from Taiwan. While some of those sources still exist, much has moved into mainland China. Not unlike the U.S., when the electronics industry moved into Taiwan the choice for a bench job was electronic parts assembly in a relatively clean, quiet environment — or enjoying the noise of the grinders and breathing in the polluted air.

Back in my day, the process of getting good product was arduous, as samples shipped back and forth while we battled the language barrier and what looks good in a head with suppliers unfamiliar with the game. Today, the degree of sophistication is significant; you can download computer files to a tool-making machine in a hamlet in mainland China and have pristine samples back in a relatively short time frame.

For the record, most of the U.S. manufacturers assemble their custom orders while importing stock and packaged sets. Even the majority of milled putters are imported. While small operations will say, “This isn’t us,” their total market share is 1.2 percent with brand awareness comparable.

This positive importing relationship came with, for most of us, an unwanted consequence — counterfeit product. I say, “for most of us” counterfeits closely tracked market popularity. In more than one instance, the source was our own supplier. Tooling that we paid for had an “extra run” for heads that were popular.

On one of my visits, I visited a new foundry and asked to see knock-offs of a popular model from another manufacturer. After inspecting them, I asked to see counterfeits and was taken into another room for a “private showing.” While our main foundry would steadfastly deny those “extra runs,” it wasn’t difficult to find knock-offs.

Quick story about renegade operations. I had made some friends in Taiwan and they took me to a foundry that “specialized” in copies. I kid you not, the entire operation was below a restaurant! You walked down this labyrinth of winding stairs, probably three floors in all and nervously looking around all I could think of was Dante’s Inferno!

The foundry was at the very bottom, and the grinding and polishing levels were on the higher floors, with product delivered by conveyer belt. There was no air circulation, and just one entrance/exit. It was like looking through (and breathing) a world of grainy smoke. The noise was deafening and open bottles of some kind of “white lightning” were on the benches. That part I understood, you had to do “something” to work there.

Think for one millisecond that the owner/operator was terribly concerned about the ethics of copies? The place made such an impression that I can see it to this day; it made my personal foundry experience in the 50″s benign by comparison.

One evening, a Taiwanese man who I considered a friend educated me at dinner. He explained that the world of knock-offs and counterfeiting, while not something to be proud of, was ingrained in the culture. Some suppliers (like him) refused to participate, but the practice was wide spread and looked at as more of an enterprise than some heinous crime.

What he essentially told me was that it was a way of life, and the best thing to do was have our own full-time rep in Taiwan to look after our interests — but even then a very popular model would spawn copies. He very politely warned me that some of the major operators in the world of counterfeiting were not upstanding citizens and could be dangerous.

Since golf equipment today is frozen technically by the USGA, at least in the critical category of distance, it’s essentially a brand-awareness, marketing game. Frankly it’s not unlike the fashion business, as new models must be accompanied by very strong marketing. Counterfeiting in that industry is a major issue and China is one of the main sources.

If my prediction of higher prices for new clubs comes to fruition, the knock-offs won’t be far behind.

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Barney Adams

Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

39 Comments

Dave

Apr 23, 2015 at 9:47 am

I thank God every day I am a lefty!!!

Reply Report comment
Gorden

Apr 6, 2015 at 10:59 pm

Barney, you do not have to write new articles all the time just bring up a subject and let everyone write in thier questions in the comments section and you can answer them for all to read…..Love your articles, love your answers (and the questions you get asked) in the comments section after each article…

Reply Report comment
- Barney Adams
  
  Apr 7, 2015 at 5:26 pm
  
  Good idea will bounce off editors
  
  Reply Report comment
Carl Paul

Mar 31, 2015 at 2:56 pm

The “big 5” foundries in China, (Dynamic, OTA, Sino, Advanced & Fu Sheng) were all unwillingly involved with counterfeiting. Not because they cast, forged or finished the counterfeit club heads but because employees would steel first article samples and sell them to the foundries who did manufacture counterfeits. The big 5 took extraordinary steps to keep new designs secret but too frequently an employee would figure a work around. At one foundry, an employee simply walked to the window with a finished head, threw it on to the roof and then retrieved it later. By the way, Dynamic closed its China facility and moved it all back to Taiwan.

Reply Report comment
Rob

Mar 28, 2015 at 9:33 pm

Didn’t Apple find out one of its factories was selling iPads out the back door a couple of years ago?
A friend bought a set of Ping irons last year online from Europe, he actually believed the crap about them being “cosmetic blems”. I started to tell him there is no such thing, but figured why waste the effort, he only plays a couple times a year and he feels good having them.
I almost bought a new graphite Project X shaft on the bay for $35, until I realized the seller has a continual add for them and the wholesale price must be higher than that!

Reply Report comment
Larry

Mar 27, 2015 at 8:05 pm

What would help the everyday golfer is if someone stepped in and inforced fair trade law and took the power to set prices away from the big OEMs. Someone who’s brother in law owned a driving range and pro shop said that an OEM walk in and took away all his stock of thier product because he had a “sale” where he priced the clubs below what the OEM said he had to sell them for…could not even sale clubs at full price and throw in a couple dozen balls, OEM hold all the sellers accountable for the selling price (even free shipping). If a $500 new driver cost $275 wholesale and a seller wants to charge $325 he cannot sell the driver….discount sourses like Walmart could buy thousands of OEM clubs and sell at prices much lower then retail but the golf industry is a protected buisness using the idea they have some kind of power to inforce price something that was outlawed years ago or so we thought.

Reply Report comment
- Larry
  
  Mar 27, 2015 at 8:09 pm
  
  Barney could you replay to this idea, what did you do at ADAMS GOLF to keep your clubs from being sold for what ever the seller wanted to charge, as your products were always sold for same price every where also…..So Barney tells us why the prices on new golf clubs (and balls) are FIXED….
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Barney Adams
    
    Mar 28, 2015 at 7:54 pm
    
    To be 100% clear. I did not run Adams during all of its existence only the early days. My feeling was make superior product and let retailers make their policy. That said we didn’t sell to some of the giant retailers for a variety of reasons. For example we couldn’t live up to their demands to take back unsold product, pay for sales space etc… We tried to forge relationships with retailers with an eye on the long view.
    
    Reply Report comment
Joe

Mar 27, 2015 at 5:03 pm

Bubba you are truly an idiot

Reply Report comment
Tom Wishon

Mar 26, 2015 at 2:49 pm

it isn’t just China. And it isn’t just golf clubs. As any here know who work with sourcing products from outside the USA, regardless where there are large factories making products with consumer demand, there will be counterfeiting of any type of product. Those factories that are very good in their work get the business, and those who are not sometimes revert to the distasteful and illegal use of their skills and equipment to make money.

For those who decry the movement of the clubhead and shaft production business to Asia, there is no question the Taiwan factories got their foot in the door of the clubhead production business because of a low price made possible by a low labor rate. But they kept the business and by the early 2000s, eliminated the US based head making factories to get all the business, for one reason only – they ended up being better at it in all ways.

I began designing heads in 1986. I did head design projects with US factories and Taiwan based factories from day one. I grew to dislike the 15,000 mile round trips 2-3 times a year to Taiwan to do my work. But I also grew to dislike working with the US based factories because it was a royal pain in the rear to have to deal with separate vendors for tooling masters, for dies, for casting, and then for finishing the heads. In Taiwan, they had “one stop shopping”, so to speak, with everything done in one factory facility.

But then around the mid 90s, the better Taiwan factories really, and I mean REALLY, got extremely good at what they do. So good that this was when all the major OEM companies began to jump ship from their US based head factories. Because they HAD to in order to get the best quality in their head production. And the good factories got the quality companies’ orders while the not very good factories reverted to what they felt they had to do to make a living. Plain and simple, I would have loved to make the clubhead development trips to LA rather than Kaohsiung. But it didn’t work out that way because their factories beat the pants off ours. Barney knows. He lived through it too.

Reply Report comment
- Joe
  
  Mar 27, 2015 at 5:02 pm
  
  you missed the major factor. The good ole EPA drove every USA based company out of business.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Tom
    
    Dec 24, 2015 at 11:11 am
    
    the EPA is the right hand of federal law making policies.
    
    Reply Report comment
michael

Mar 26, 2015 at 9:54 am

Shame on all manufactures who do business off shore!

I no longer support the pga show or manufactures that frequent

and condone such practices!

Reply Report comment
- Patricknorm
  
  Mar 27, 2015 at 11:24 am
  
  You view is very naive sir. I know in an ideal world we would manufacture, market and buy products only from their country of origin. Today a premium new driver sells anywhere from $300.00 to $500.00 USD. Using your idealistic logic, mantra , paradigm, nothing shipped from other countries to North America would enter our shores. Or duties from these products would be so high they would limit the dollar amount people would spend on consumer goods.
  Currently many American companies sell consumer products, manufactured in America to countries all,round the world. America has multiple trade agreements with multiple countries around the world. And the reverse is true with countries that ship to America.
  Your 1950’s logic changed when the second world war ended sir. Americans are good at many things, just not everything. Competition is good for trade around the world.
  
  Reply Report comment
Phat

Mar 26, 2015 at 4:19 am

In China this is how it is for any industry – sport, fine art, fashion, electronics – there is literally a knock off available for anything. I say this from my perspective of believing that Chinese people are amazing, intelligent, kind, and acknowledging that many of the great human inventions came from China.

Us westerners whinge about the Asian counterfeit industry, but it is understandable considering what hundreds of millions of ‘everyday’ Chinese people have had to endure over the past 200 years. This of course includes; the opium wars, the Japanese invasion, the Maoist revolution, the sweat shops and cheap labour (for our) luxury goods, the corrupt officialdom, and last but not least, a class division created through a rampant game of catch-up with western capitalism!

Reply Report comment
Don

Mar 26, 2015 at 12:59 am

Thanks for the wonderful article. I remember years ago, being in a golf shop buying balls and someone came in to sell a titanium driver… the pro asked the assistant to put it on the grinder to test the metal in the sole… that was my 1st experience… when I asked about it the pro said he was always suspicious… that was 12 years ago.

I also have a friend who has a set of asian counterfeit clubs, he still uses them, even though the lofts are wrong… he claims they are rejects from a well known brand. He also has a name brand driver that cracked… the asian seller paid for the freight so the club could be returned and then replaced it…

Reply Report comment
ken

Mar 25, 2015 at 11:24 pm

If there are people knowingly buying counterfeit clubs, shame on them.
And the blame for the existence of counterfeit clubs is THEIR FAULT….They are the market. They are to blame.
Without the cheapskates buying the trash, the market for counterfeits does not exist.

Reply Report comment
- RG
  
  Mar 26, 2015 at 12:20 pm
  
  Trash?!?! Some counterfeits are better than the original.
  
  Reply Report comment
Dave

Mar 25, 2015 at 8:30 pm

Barney,
You have barely scratched the surface of counterfeiting. Two years ago at PGA show I was approached from a gentleman who imported granite slabs from China. He explained that there was a gap between each slab of about three inches, and he would be happy to bring into the US Callaway club sets in that gap with no duty taxes because they were invisible. The six iron demo he had was a very cheap clone that had a shaft diameter of .390″ made of filament wound graphite, with perfect graphics. The head was a cast item of very less quality material such as chrome plated zinc, with a $1 grip copy .
The cost per set was US $100. When I asked about the demo item he said I could keep it, it wasn’t worth the cost to do anything else with it.
Ultra inferior product, and logs that matched. But would bring fire-storm from the Cally patent folks, and land my sorry butt in jail for about twenty for parent infringement. Smiles, D

Reply Report comment
- Barney Adams
  
  Mar 26, 2015 at 1:40 am
  
  When I re-read my own story it could have been interpreted that most all Chinese suppliers were involved in counterfeiting. Of course this is not the case in fact the majority are straight up business people and have greatly helped the cost of golf equipment from escalating.
  Then there are the others.
  
  Reply Report comment
mb

Mar 25, 2015 at 7:32 pm

Thanks pretty simple don’t try yo find a cheap deal pay what is right for the product and you want and not worry about great deal and you get buried, manufacturers pay millions to protect us but many will try to find a cheap deal. You have been warned!!!!!

Reply Report comment
Jeff

Mar 25, 2015 at 6:50 pm

At golfsmith the other day and they still have the entire RBZ stage 1 line on display, full price, stock shafts and lots of upgrade costs. I found a G30 in the used clubs area and I’m thrilled. But it’s no mystery to most golfers, who love golf but wouldn’t ever and couldn’t ever keep up with the new products why the industry is hurting.

Reply Report comment
Andy

Mar 25, 2015 at 4:35 pm

Counterfeiters are using more and more sophisticated means to con people out of their money. They register websites in the the country they are targeting, targeted scam emails etc., and as Mike says, they are getting harder to spot. I have also noted that on the counterfeit websites the price gap is narrowing, making them appear more legit. The one thing which will work against the counterfeiters is the growth in club fitting, so as the old saying goes, golfers who know buy from their Pro. On a lighter side, I heard a story of a guy who was given a set of clubs as a retirement present, which as you might have guessed turned out to be fake – must have been a really popular guy at work 🙂

Reply Report comment
RG

Mar 25, 2015 at 3:17 pm

Great article once again Barney.I think people really need to understand the ramifications of continually flooding a market with constant product, but I doubt they will.

Reply Report comment
Carlos Danger

Mar 25, 2015 at 1:24 pm

So…I look at my bag and think that I surely do not have any counterfeit clubs. Every club was bought from a golf store/site, vetted WRXer or from a US seller on Ebay whom I have either bought from before or who has a long history of positive reviews and not the type of equipment you would typically think of as counterfeit. Meaning, if you have a Ebay seller with hoards of 10 degree regular flex Taylor Made R1’s shipping from Indonesia…no way. But if its some dude from South Carolina who is selling unique high end equipment I feel pretty safe/confident that whatever Im buying is legit.

Am I being naive? Am I forgetting that these guys had to get the club somewhere as well and who knows where that was?

I guess what Im asking from Barney is…do you kind of have to be a doofus to fall for a counterfeit club? Do you have to be naive and think that “wow, this $75 Scotty Cameron from Ethopia is a great deal!” to be the type of person who is at risk of getting a counterfeit? Or am I at risk ordering a club from globalgolf.com or from an Ebay seller with 100s of positive reviews that is selling rare high end stuff?

Reply Report comment
- RG
  
  Mar 25, 2015 at 3:05 pm
  
  Always go to the manufacturers website and verify by serial number or you’re a sucker.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Max King
    
    Mar 25, 2015 at 9:48 pm
    
    I tried to verify a serial # with Nike and it was like pulling teeth. The first representative told me they didn’t have a record of serial numbers. So I tried a “live” online person and they were able to verify the serial #. Nike sucks.
    
    Reply Report comment
- barney adams
  
  Mar 25, 2015 at 3:48 pm
  
  if it’s “too good to be true” it probably isn’t.
  
  Reply Report comment
- golfiend
  
  Mar 25, 2015 at 4:31 pm
  
  I’ve met alot of people with excess disposable income who are always trying and buying new clubs. They tend to get rid of their clubs at a very low price through golf for sale forums and ebay. The products are real. But the product may only be as good as the reputation of the seller.
  
  Reply Report comment
golfiend

Mar 25, 2015 at 1:05 pm

Counterfeit golf clubs have been around for some time, especially when it started costing $400-500 for a driver, and in Japan where the price of a driver could be $1200. There are good counterfeit clubs and bad ones in terms of appearance and finish as well as performance. The more expensive counterfeits are almost indistinguishable from the real ones at a price well below retail. Sometimes they are marketed as “tour only.” I bought one of these back in the days thinking it was actually only from the tour van, and I hate to say it but I was killing it with this driver. People who play or deal with alot of clubs are probably the only ones who can distinguish the difference.

Reply Report comment
- MHendon
  
  Mar 25, 2015 at 3:23 pm
  
  You might have been killing it because it had an illegally performing face.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - golfiend
    
    Mar 25, 2015 at 4:23 pm
    
    Yes, I suspected that. Then again, I’ve been to some demo days, and hit the same brand and model drivers (with same stock shaft setup) that were both duds and great. It seems that even with non-counterfeit equipment, there are some variations in performance.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Faker
      
      Mar 25, 2015 at 9:49 pm
      
      Well if were only killing it to 200 yards then you probably couldn’t really tell from a real one to a fake! Ha!
      But if you pushed the head beyond 50m/s and tried hitting it over 300 yards carry I bet that head would fall apart.
      
      Reply Report comment
      - golfiend
        
        Mar 25, 2015 at 10:25 pm
        
        head didn’t fall apart. i still have it, but stopped playing it due to other equipment available but i am afraid that one day, it will no longer perform. but you’re probably right that many people will not notice a big difference in performance between a real and a fake one.
        
        Reply Report comment
Johnny

Mar 25, 2015 at 12:35 pm

Although the major OEMs like Taylormade, Titleist, Ping, and Callaway are bitter competitors in a stagnant golf market, they work side by side when it comes to counterfeiting. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Reply Report comment
- Greg
  
  Mar 25, 2015 at 4:34 pm
  
  So by that rule… is Taylormade friends with the Titlest counterfeiters?
  
  Reply Report comment
rockflightxl1000

Mar 25, 2015 at 12:29 pm

The one thing that scares me about your article is the margin driven approach reaching a maximum. I feel that if Taylormade already made clubs (used) more affordable and the industry is still shrinking (i.e. less participants) than I fear that golf one day will price itself out of the market for the average working man. I just hope these bootlegged clubs do not create a phenomena where people stay away from golf b/c they don’t know if they’re getting the real thing. I like your articles Barney but I never get a “warm” feeling about the state of the game after reading them.

Reply Report comment
- barney adams
  
  Mar 25, 2015 at 3:46 pm
  
  the industry is replete with folks looking at the glass half full. If my articles are depressing it’s because they reflect the status quo. I have put forth several suggestions aimed at positive results but I am just a voice.
  
  Reply Report comment
Mike

Mar 25, 2015 at 11:26 am

This is the exact same impression I had from my own industry. The counterfeits are readily available of almost everything. You just have to know the right people to see where they are made. My coworker came home with what have been tens of thousands of dollars in handbags in the US for only a couple hundred dollars in China. All of which were identical to the real thing. It is crazy how accurate the counterfeits are.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

12 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

5 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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