Opinion & Analysis
What we talked about at Adams Golf
I’ve gone through the comments on my previous stories, looking for topics that my readers seem to want covered. So far, I’ve focused on the nuts and bolts of the industry and stayed away from what might be considered more personal. But one comment kind of stuck with me.
What did we talk about while having a beer? This person wanted to know more about the day-to-day discussions of people in the industry.
Obviously, I can only respond from the Adams Golf viewpoint. The industry is very competitive and as such, we didn’t have industry functions where we got together and socialized. Many years ago, Golf Magazine would have an outing after the PGA Merchandise Show and invite its customers, which included equipment industry folks. I played in a couple, but we didn’t get together to discuss the industry.
At Adams, any conversation during a get-together had the same theme — how do we increase our sales so we can effectively compete with the big guys?
Let me put this in perspective. It’s post 2000, post IPO, we are the No. 1 hybrid on tour and competing daily against companies 5-to-15 times our annual volume At our peak, we did a bit more than $100 million in annual sales and, while that may sound like a lot, it’s well short of the roughly $140 million you need to do all the necessary marketing stuff and turn a profit. You are managing cash flow.
What were we doing with the money? Huge salaries, big benefits, expensive marketing? I know it doesn’t mesh with what many outsiders believe about the golf equipment industry, but we were very conservative. Since it’s public record, you can confirm that my yearly salary never exceeded $200K. Some of our key people actually did better in areas where we had to pay to get the best folks, but we were very professional with our salary structure.
There’s a saying about marketing that goes like this:
“I know 50 cents of every dollar is a waste. I just don’t know which 50 cents.”
We probably spent as much time in random discussions on this subject as anything. We would get a call saying Player X is available and we can get him for… well, more than any of us were making. Once the euphoria of being associated with a known name wears off, it’s the old question: Will the association pay off in sales?
There is no formula that applies to a company that has a tour staff of one or two players. The only thing that moves the needle is to have a large tour staff, and financially it wasn’t in the cards for Adams. It isn’t just the player; it’s how much of your advertising budget gets dedicated to promoting the relationship. Where else could the money go?
That conversation brings us around to “who are we” and “how do we capitalize on our image?” At Adams, we knew we wanted to appeal to the average golfer. Our designs were focused on making the game more enjoyable for what demographically is the largest constituency.
Now remember, in the example I’m giving, this is a bunch of us sitting around having a beer and giving opinions. There’s no formality, just ideas. When it came to the issue of helping the average player, there was one unavoidable step. You had to make excellent product that good players would use and do so knowing it would be a small percentage of total sales. Golf has a pyramid of influence, and if the better players aren’t complimentary of your products the selling effort increases significantly.
There’s an important thing to remember here. The golf equipment industry is a lot more like the fashion industry than many people are willing to admit. The actual differences between products are minor and often subjective. We don’t want to copy, but we are remiss if we don’t look at what seems to be popular and decide how to position ourselves.
Doing all of this — tour, marketing, product design — and you missed break even at $100 million in sales?
Well, cut back!
Drop the Tour staff to one or two minor (read: cheaper) players, cut back on advertising, don’t spend money designing a driver that competes favorably with the best in the market, etc. This movie has been seen, and the company slides into oblivion during the denouement.
There are other “opportunities.” A golf ball manufacturer will make a top-quality ball under our name, a shirt company will do the same. This can be done with golf shoes and virtually anything that’s sold at golf retail. Look to history. Has any smaller company ever been successful adding non-equipment products? The answer is no. So we collectively decide that our focus is on-course and we will try and do the best we can knowing we don’t have the luxury of funding.
Then the sales guy says,”I was in one of the ____ stores the other day and our [very costly] displays were in the back and some had product from other companies.” (I’m assuming everything was done to correct this!)
This is a killer. You spend the advertising dollars, the tour dollars and the R&D money just to have your product displayed where it’s hard to find. There’s a simple reason why; the big guys pay for premium space and make sure it’s properly managed. We completed our budget just getting to the store — renting premium space doesn’t fit. We have to come up with an in-store sales strategy that allows us to compete.
Get the picture? We’re still drinking beer, having a good time and we’re all passionate. And it’s good that we are; we want to put the best product in consumer hands and do so in a way that allows us to compete going forward.
That’s what we talked about.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead
The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.
The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time.
Past Winners at Valspar Championship
- 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
- 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
- 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
- 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
- 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Copperhead
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)
- Tony Finau (+.90)
- Nick Taylor (+.81)
- Justin Thomas (+.77)
- Greyson Sigg (+.69)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)
2. Good Drive %
The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.
Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+91.3%)
- Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
- Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
- Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
- Aaron Rai (+89.7%)
3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
- Tony Finau (+1.24)
- Cameron Young (+1.17)
- Doug Ghim (+.95)
4. Bogey Avoidance
With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.
Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.
Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+9.0)
- Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
- Austin Cook (+9.7)
- Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
- Greyson Sigg (+10.2)
5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions
Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+1,71)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
- Cameron Young (+1.27)
- Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
- Justin Suh (+.94)
6. Course History
That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.
Course History Over Past 24 rounds
- Patrick Cantlay (+3.75)
- Sam Burns (+2.49)
- Davis Riley (+2.33)
- Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.04)
The Valspar Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).
- Xander Schauffele
- Doug Ghim
- Victor Perez
- Greyson Sigg
- Ryan Moore
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Sam Ryder
- Sam Burns
- Lucas Glover
2024 Valspar Championship Picks
Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.
Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.
Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.
In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.
Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.
Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.
In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.
Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.
Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)
Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.
It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.
It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.
Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)
Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.
Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.
In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.
Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.
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Opinion & Analysis
Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina
As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.
My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.
2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.
My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.
Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation
What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.
If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.
You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.
If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.
Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.
Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?
The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.
My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.
The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.
Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North
Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)
A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.
Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)
A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.
King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.
With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.
THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.
THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.
Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
- 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
- 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
- 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
- 2016: Jason Day (-15)
- 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass
Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.37)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
- Tony Finau (+0.99)
- Jake Knapp (+0.83)
- Shane Lowry (+0.80)
2. Total Driving
This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.
Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.
Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds
- Rory McIlroy (22)
- Akshay Bhatia (25)
- Keith Mitchell (25)
- Adam Hadwin (34)
- Sam Burns (+39)
3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.
SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.77)
- Sungjae Im (+1.72)
- Brian Harman (+1.62)
4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
- Tony Finau (+1.51)
- Tom Hoge (+1.48)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.18)
5. Par 5 Average
Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.
Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
- Doug Ghim (+4.34)
- Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)
6. Strokes Gained: Florida
We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well.
Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
- Doug Ghim (+1.78)
- Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)
7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger
With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
- Tony Finau (+1.62)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.49)
THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).
- Scottie Scheffler
- Shane Lowry
- Tony Finau
- Corey Conners
- Keith Mitchell
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Xander Schauffele
- Cameron Young
- Doug Ghim
- Sam Burns
- Chris Kirk
- Collin Morikawa
- Si Woo Kim
- Wyndham Clark
2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks
(All odds at the time of writing)
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):
Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.
Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.
Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.
Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):
In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.
Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.
Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.
Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):
History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022.
Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.
Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.
Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):
(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).
Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.
In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.
It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.
Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):
A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.
This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.
Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.
Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):
It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.
Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.
This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.
Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):
Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.
In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.
Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.
In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.
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Nat
Feb 24, 2015 at 3:41 pm
As always a great article, thank you. Like many have said, Adams made great stuff. I have just stopped using an F11 driver after using a 9015. Great great drivers. My son had the opportunity to caddie for Tom Watson’s group in a pro am last year and was shocked to see him using an F11. He said it was the best driver he’d ever used, ‘nothing better out there today’.
golfandgamble
Feb 23, 2015 at 5:16 pm
Why the vitriol towards Mr. Adams? Between he and Wishon, their writing series’ have been outstanding and very insightful. I can’t figure out why people need to be so bashful on here, he doesn’t have to do this, but I’m thankful that he has.
T-MAC
Feb 23, 2015 at 2:13 pm
Love the arm-chair quarterbacks here. Most of the ideas given on how Adams “should have” grown their brand are a joke. But, it makes for good reading.
I used to be a big Titleist and Mizuno forged guy (after getting rid of my forged Wilson Staff Tour Blades back in the 1980’s). Then one day I went to a Adams Demo day at my Club and hit the forged CB1’s and CB2’s. Best irons I’ve EVER hit. I’ve since owned CB1’s, CB2’s, CB3’s and Pro a12’s. Love the dark finish on these so I stocked up on them since they are no longer available (you can still find some of these in stores today). I also bought a 3-wood as well as several hybrids, which I think are the best on the market. It pains me to see that TM now owns Adams. I guess they thought buying the company would be less expensive than going through a lawsuit over the slot technology? 😉
Appreciate the inside information Barney. Best of luck to you in the future Sir.
farmer
Feb 15, 2015 at 1:05 pm
Keith and West, you guys are awfully harsh having the benefit of hindsight and no demonstrable credentials. What Mr. Adams describes is a cautionary tale for the new Hogan brand.
Barney Adams
Feb 13, 2015 at 7:27 pm
As for shipping one club; very slippery slope you are trying to develop relationships with retailers and this broaches direct selling. Larry; try me at [email protected]. As for the “Adams demise. ” never happened. The shareholders decided they could benefit from a sale. Happens every day. Johan Adams marketing comes from TM and has for the last couple of years.
Johan Klarin
Feb 13, 2015 at 11:39 pm
Barney, that explains a lot. TM’s marketing playbook can’t be applied to Adams. TM marketing: flood the world with pushy and loud messaging. Experiment (dolls anyone?) frequently, outspend the competition, and “buy” more pros to endorse your gear. Applying this marketing toolkit/thinking on a smaller scale to Adams will never succeed.
For a recent example of how to do this better: Cadillac’s marketing guys, shared across GM and other Detroit-based manufacturers for decades, with predicable amounts of harmful groupthink, recently decided to move their top marketing guys to a new office in Manhattan, away from Detroit (both physically and intellectually).
I would bet some Adidas stock that one of the most cost-effictive ways to help Adams over the next 1-3 years would be to follow the Cadillac (and others) playbook: create a separate marketing team for Adams, and place it physically far away from TM’s marketing. They can still collaborate, but it would make it much easier for Adams to create and tell a story that resonates enough in the marketplace that sales increase meaningfully. It has been done many times before, by many companies, in many industries.
Thanks for your great commentary across the WRX pages.
Del Capslock
Feb 16, 2015 at 10:26 pm
Johan….what would you budget for that parallel sales force? Can you afford it?
Gorden
Feb 21, 2015 at 2:32 am
The only way they are going to keep the Adams line is if it sells….they can use Adams as a testing ground for ideas they are not sure of yet for their flagship TaylorMade clubs. As Adams golf proved haveing one great product (Tight Lies) is not enough to compete in the Golf Club game……..at a level we would call pro level equipment anyway….
Larry111
Feb 13, 2015 at 5:13 pm
Barney,
I have in my possession a prototype driver head designed by an iconic long driver who is deceased. It’s aerodynamic and slippery from any angle but it retains an old school look. It looks like it’s getting ready to take off and fly right off my desk. I may be looking at the next Big Bertha.
Here’s the problem, I don’t trust the major manufactures especially Taylormade and Callaway so I don’t want to put it in their hands just yet. Could you suggest an ethical party that knows the ins and outs of the business who I could send it to for an evaluation and maybe establish a game plan? Send me a pm here at GolfWRX if you have any suggestions.
Andy W
Feb 13, 2015 at 4:32 pm
What’s up with older comments? I click on it and it just scrolls up to the top of the page…
Johnnie McFarland
Feb 13, 2015 at 1:34 pm
Jonny B described me to a “tee.” I am an old man by my own self-description (58) and a “hacker” for lack of a better term of a casual weekender whose goal is to break 100 consistently. But statistically, am I not the median or average golfer? What percentage of golfers do I fit in? Am I in the majority of golfers out there? I just bought a set of Adams V3 irons because from Adams’ marketing and price point, these clubs fit my game. Would me buying a set of higher-priced, bigger name-brand clubs really improve my game? I doubt it. And I realize that with more time and a greater effort, I can and should improve. The question for me is will my ability synchronize with the potential of my equipment? I formerly played with bargain basement, no name equipment and got teased unmercifully until I asked this question, if a tour player and I exchanged equipment, would my game improve by quantum leaps and bounds and would the tour pro fall into a wormhole? Marketing without question is the key. The thought of purchasing the same equipment top 10 tour pros use might possibly increase my confidence which in turn might possibly improve my game. But would my game improve measurably? And is that improvement more mental (which is extremely important) versus physical? Do I buy clubs because my favorite player uses this brand or do I buy clubs based on my ability and budget. I choose the latter and Adams has been a good choice for me. I took pride in occasionally beating my competition with “no name brand” equipment and I hope to play better with Adams.
Justin
Feb 20, 2015 at 6:18 pm
It really doesn’t matter. You play and buy what YOU want, what you can afford. The biggest deal is if you’re properly fitted for your sticks.
Even if it’s a low-end aluminum-faced (or “titanium matrix”) driver and zinc irons and wedges that you got as a full set from Wal-Mart, if you’re chasing after the little white ball you are golfing. Are you “optimized”? Most likely, no… but who really is? Tiger Woods is undoubtedly “optimized” for his equipment, but even he has his days when he has to rely on his B, C, or even D game. That’s golf.
Ever see one of those guys on a rec softball league with all the fancy gear? How many actually “play up” to the equipment? They’re buying it to make themselves feel better about their game (admirable, as it’s their money to spend as they see fit), but it doesn’t help when they go 0-4 at the plate, or drop that routine fly ball.
Buy what makes YOU happy, and ignore everyone else.
Johan Klarin
Feb 13, 2015 at 10:06 am
You are describing a branding issue perfectly: in commoditized markets (small variances in product, competitive industry, low margins) if you can’t compete with money, only way to win is to “tell a better story” that resonates. Easy to say, incredibly hard to do. Especially in a company where R&D / engineering and product is historically seen as the core. Nope, this is a marketing gig. Look at SCOR wedges for example – BY FAR the highest satisfaction rates, backed up by robot testing. Meanwhile, most amateurs think Bob Vokey oversaw the production of their SM5 wedge, and thus continue to perpetuate a very effective marketing myth. Vokeys win, not by product excellence, but by superior – and consistent – storytelling. And yes, they do ads – but the ads support the story – they aren’t the story.
The answer is to hire (internally and agency) the best marketing brains – including several from outside the industry. Adams has plenty of engineering and product excellence, and it doesn’t have to flood the golf channel with ads to do much better.
I could be totally wrong about Adams marketing as I’m an outsider, but as a start, I’d take a look at the organization’s top marketing talent.
Currently gaming two 9031 hybrids. Nothing better anywhere.
Jonny B
Feb 13, 2015 at 8:19 am
My two cents as a consumer – Adams demise (or failure to achieve desired market share) can be partially attributed to their brand image. The brand image is that these are “old man” clubs, or “hackers” clubs. Cleveland is struggling with the same right now, and as such their equipment sales are plummeting. This brand image may or may not be the fault of Adams, I’m sure they didn’t set out to make old man and amateur clubs, but that is the market who bought them.
Another problem is that superior equipment is such a finicky term and goal – so much is subjective when it comes to that stuff. If I go to the range and demo 5 similar iron sets or drivers today – the difference in playability and results is minimal – MINIMAL. So you may say your goal is to produce better equipment, but what is that “better” based upon… better materials, better results, better adjustability, etc? And it isn’t better unless the market knows it’s better, and that takes $$$$ to educate consumers, get clubs in their hands, get premium retail space. The public doesn’t know what they want – you have to tell them. And in the golf industry, you tell them with $$$ and tour players gaming your gear. Adams failed to do this, and so we see they have gone by the wayside.
DMR
Feb 13, 2015 at 7:15 am
Mr. Adams,
Thank you for taking the time to talk about your experience at adams golf. Although some of the comments I see here lack civility, I am sure most people appreciate your insight. I am curious, in the 70’s and 80’s, the equipment industry did a complete turnover. Wilson, MacGregor, Dunlop, Ram, Hogan…a bunch of companies that had experienced success, seemed to disappear over time, and new companies took their place…Callaway, Taylormade, Ping…even Adams. In your view, how did this occur, and is there a chance, it could occur again?
Thank you….and by the way…I have a couple adams hybrids in my bag that date back a few years. Still have not found a hybrid I like better…
Mike
Feb 14, 2015 at 1:03 am
That is a great question. I’m very interested in mr Adams take on this.
Barney Adams
Feb 14, 2015 at 9:23 pm
In a word the demise of those Companies; Callaway. They introduced an era of strong marketing and innovative product. You either learned to compete or you got run over.
I think it’s happening now. The USGA has essentially stifled real innovation so we have a four horse marketing game. TM, Callaway, Ping and Titleist albeit really a ball company.
Chuck
Feb 13, 2015 at 5:19 am
I’m curious what Barney can say about Tom Watson; obviously a consummate player and professional, Watson’s marketing worth is something that a number of companies (Ralph Lauren Polo, for one) seem to like. And yet Tom Watson appears to have resolutely stayed away from contracts with the major club manufacturers (Titleist, Taylormade, Callaway, Mizuno, Wilson.) Barney can you say anything about the Tom Watson/Adams golf linkage?
Barney Adams
Feb 14, 2015 at 9:25 pm
It was one of the great experiences. Whatever we said a club would do Tom had to prove it via his ball flight. Couldn’t have had a better partner.
Gorden
Feb 12, 2015 at 9:19 pm
Barney what do you think of Wilson slowly gaining some more market share…it has been a long time since Wilson Had a female President that dropped John Daly and killed any Driver sales they would have for years.
Barney Adams
Feb 14, 2015 at 9:26 pm
Some improvement but miles to go.
Andy W
Feb 12, 2015 at 5:46 pm
Sales in the range of “$140 million…. necessary for marketing stuff and turn a profit” is enlightening. Man, it all adds up being in all the golf mags, TV time, pay for play Pros, ect., all to establish presence and motivation for golfers to buy. Have to think TMAG spent $10 million just on the PGA Show the last three years….
tom
Feb 12, 2015 at 5:07 pm
it’s all time and place. barney did what he did at the time he did it. his company grew to its apex and could not have grown anymore. you have to consider what he was up against. callaway, titleist, taylormade, ping, et al. those companies were doing all they could against each other and there’s only so much you can do to win the limited amount of golfers there are in the world. $100MM in rev is all he could have done – end of story. if he had started when titleist, ping, taylormade did, and have the “hits” those companies did, he could have been in a different place altogether. if taylormade didn’t have that HUGE hit with the metalwood, they’d be an adams. if ping didn’t have those ground breaking upright lie irons, etc., it’d be a different story. adams didn’t really do much of anything except popularize a utility club. they rode that fad as long and hard as they could, and the other vendors provided a similar product that golfers were content buying to fit their bag profile. look, microsoft was a time and place business. apple, time and place. google, time and place. adams did what they could, and that’s it – end of story. adams is a remarkable story, but callaway, titleist, taylormade, ping, cleveland, cobra, mizuno, nike, bridgestone, are more remarkable.
Andy W
Feb 13, 2015 at 7:37 am
Yep, one club (tightlies) was the catalyst, yet clones were everywhere and few Pros saw a need to pull the 2-iron. What if Adams had offered a putter that was a USGA conforming “Surveying Instrument” with an Operating System that guaranteed a perfect Greenread 100% of the time? What if Adams with this putter offered free support just like Microsoft does on their Operating Systems. What if for 17 years nobody could compete with this Adams SI putter like Apple does with Microsoft? What if Pros deemed this putter essential equipment in the bag? With something like that, $100M is not the limit.
tom
Feb 13, 2015 at 9:12 am
Yup, Andy W, my fine apprentice, you have been correctly influenced by my assertion. had adams come out with something truly revolutionary (e.g. the taylormade metalwood is the great golf equip example) that everyone ‘had to have’, they’d have created the channel “pull thru” required to catapult them to the uber manufacturer status of callaway, ping, taylormade, titleist, et al. however, the “hybrid” club as the “adams revolution” gave them only $100MM rev pull thru at their peak and they were relegated an alsoran at retail. so they had “push thru” going for them and that’s why their retail displays sat unopened in the back receiving area of retail stores. for those channel sales neophytes out there – pull thru occurs because demand for your product is so strong, people come into stores already knowing what they want and literally pull the product off of store shelves. push thru occurs when a product or company has not produced anything hot enough to generate demand and as result you rely on gimmicks (sales spiffs, training, incentives, sexy retail displays, buying end-caps, ads, etc) and hope that you these things will push products thru the channel.
Barney needed to realize that in order to grow his business he had to focus very heavily on a push strategy. you can see in his article that he did NOT focus on this as much as he needed. In fact, he says “(I’m assuming everything was done to correct this!)” when he heard a sales guy talking about their retail displays sitting around in back. if it were my business, i’d have fired the guy! if you’re going to “assume” your sales org is doing what it needed so consumers are, then you’re out of touch and you’re not going to grow. you have to be a push marketing sherpa. your organization has got to know precisely at every level what it needs to do – that starts at the top. if consumers don’t know your product, or if consumers simply aren’t actively looking for your product you have to push your product. if your product isn’t known, then nobody will be looking for it. you can’t assume your retail sales org is doing its job. you have to know they are.
Barney Adams
Feb 15, 2015 at 7:08 pm
Tom, I found myself agreeing until the end and your choice of ” more remarkable” companies. Based on industry data Adams had a greater market share than Cleveland, Mizuno, Nike, Bridgestone or Cobra and all of those companies were owned by a corporate giant and it’s support systems. ( or in Nike and Bridgestone’s cases were a division of a corporate giant) Take Titleist’s ball business away and they too fall off the radar. Just FYI. Makes no difference it’s all history now.
Barney Adams
Feb 15, 2015 at 7:17 pm
Tom ; your conclusion. Adams had greater market share than any of the ” successes” you mentioned starting with Cleveland and they all were either owned by large companies or were large companies. We would have continued to increase but it was an annual street fight. As I’ve said before it’s a fashion/ marketing business. The USGA does not want nor will allow distance improving innovation or anything they feel makes the game easier.
Kenner
Feb 12, 2015 at 8:35 am
“Necessary marketing stuff…”
I don’t need to see Ernie every other commercial telling me he has two in the bag.
Or Kenny Perry saying that its out of here.
west
Feb 12, 2015 at 1:20 am
And am definitely appreciative of Barney, because I will have learned from his mistakes.
Shawn K
Feb 11, 2015 at 11:16 pm
Sounds like many other businesses. You have to hope quality of product will sell it and your are making money at or it doesn’t work. It is tough to compete with the big boys in any industry toe to toe in marketing, no matter how creative you get. It still costs a lot to market products these days.
If you can’t compete you need to get out or sell. Pretty simple IMO. Sounds like Barney sold and has kept the brand alive. BTW I just picked up an XTD Driver (Demo sell off of course for half of retail. I think that was a whole other discussion.)
Thanks for the article Barney.
Brian
Feb 11, 2015 at 9:12 pm
I gamed Adams equipment for >10 years. It was flat out good stuff. There’s nothing better than a small company that makes better products than the big guys. And I owned the stock too. Adams Golf was a good, innovative company.
I find these articles to be very interesting reading.
Barney, just ignore the armchair CEOs and 300 yard hitters and keep it coming.
Ryan rymail00
Feb 11, 2015 at 8:55 pm
Mr. Adams,
Once again I enjoy reading your articles, and giving us an insight 99% of the golfing world will never see. Once again the haters come out of the wood works.
Keep posting!
Ryan aka rymail00
Tom Duckworth
Feb 11, 2015 at 8:09 pm
Barney I just want to say you made some of the best and most honest equipment during your run. I enjoy your articles and I’m sorry you have to take pot shots from a bunch of wannabe a**holes.
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 6:54 pm
Wow some readers either having very bad days or just down on Adams. What I provided was an honest assessment of our internal conversations and being self ( or company) critical properly done was healthy not complaining.
Always room for improvement but I have to mention one thing; we started in 1987. Since then please name me one equipment company that has started and reached 100m in sales etc….
Jerry
Feb 11, 2015 at 8:15 pm
Don’t worry about it. There’s always 1-2 percent who are haters or jealous because you’ve done what they have dreamed about doing and are working in an industry they can only keep as a hobby. Keep it coming bud.
MT
Feb 11, 2015 at 6:32 pm
Adams should really think about making their overall brand look more cool. At this moment they look old that is against them making all those innovations. And I am speaking not influenced by some other brands such as TM that simply looks cheasy and cheep though delivering some great woods.
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 6:45 pm
Mr Adams is as they say long gone from the game.
gunmetal
Feb 11, 2015 at 6:47 pm
There stuff right before and after TM bought them looked “cool”. Problem is Adams isn’t Adams anymore. Taylormade is either calling all of the shots or at least has them on a very short leash. Very sad.
Regis
Feb 11, 2015 at 4:50 pm
Can’t fathom the degree of vitriol here, but I guess that’s the blog environment. I enjoy the articles Barney.Thanks
Matt Johnson
Feb 11, 2015 at 3:11 pm
Barney, thanks for taking the time to write and post this blog. I think you know that a lot of folks find it insightful. Please assume there is a silent majority of readers who enjoy your posts. Unfortunately there is also an outspoken majority of ignorant reprobates. What did Teddy Roosevelt have to say about those that actually enter the arena? “It is not the critic that counts…”
Tom Wishon
Feb 11, 2015 at 2:45 pm
Barney
Just curious since you are sharing info from your days – what was your total company payroll as a percentage of annual sales, same question for marketing expenses. And on a different topic related to your article, did your company use “secret shoppers” who would visit the retail stores frequently/occasionally to ask for your company’s products to then see whether the retailers were supporting you well or doing a bait and switch? Just curious.
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 6:59 pm
In reverse order we did have folks visit retail and report back. Not a staff but on occasion. Truthfully placement is the rep’s job and you have to trust them. As for marketing and payroll as a percentage we were high. Not because we were excessive but our volume was the factor. You played the cash flow game and worked to build volume.
Mauricio
Feb 11, 2015 at 2:24 pm
I think people are missing the point. Adams puts out great clubs, but the time frame he is talking is before Google was making money in advertising online. A lot of water passed under that bridge. This is great inside information. What I am curious to know is how did Adams Golf got gobbled up by TM Adidas.
Keith
Feb 11, 2015 at 4:32 pm
Adams golf was founded in 1991…so your logic applies for about 9 years of the companies lifespan. There was still a good clip of time that they were still using 1991 logic in the way they approached the marketplace before being purchased. One of the first things that happened post acquisition…Adidas/TaylorMade fired the advertising agency in Dallas.
It sounds like they focused their dollars in the wrong places…it is actually a great lesson for anyone starting a business in golf. There are a lot of companies that have had a rise after the fall Wilson (present day) and Mizuno (post 2009 when profit fell by double digits).
I agree with the message though…this is a hard industry to be successful in, there are a lot of ways to mess it up.
ck
Feb 11, 2015 at 1:45 pm
Which golf companies did you guys run? I missed that part.
LY
Feb 11, 2015 at 1:44 pm
Barney:
When you sign a PGA or LPGA player, does that player approach you to play your equipment or do you approach them? And when you do sign a player, how long on average is the contract they sign?
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 7:01 pm
No precise formula. They all have agents and they are the contact. As for duration you certainly want at least 3-5 years and hopefully longer. It takes a couple of seasons before the public notices.
Ty Webb
Feb 11, 2015 at 1:38 pm
I don’t get why he is on here. I can’t tell if he is being insightful or bitter.
gunmetal
Feb 11, 2015 at 6:50 pm
Yeah it blows my mind why we’d want a founder and CEO of a golf equipment contributing to the content of a website dedicated to golf equipment.
golfiend
Feb 11, 2015 at 1:10 pm
There was a boon in the golf industry and for golf in general with Tiger Woods, with steel woods and titanium big head drivers, a new club called hybrids, game improvement irons, wedge grooves and grinds, mallet and other funky looking putters, graphite shafts, urethane cover and 3-piece balls, but it seems the innovation have now become purely marketing with the same products being dressed up differently every 2 years. I attribute this partly due to the imposed rules on equipment which companies have seemed to maxed out on.
AJ Jensen
Feb 11, 2015 at 11:29 am
What keeps Adams going is their products, putting great clubs in their customers’ bags. It seems obvious enough, but how many other brands can actually claim the same thing? My Adams hybrids (I own four) and my Adams forged irons perform as well as anything I’ve ever borrowed or tried at a trade show. With other brands I get the feeling they’re overspending on sizzle while Adams consistently works on the steak. I see the grandiose product displays in golf stores and marvel at the irony, as customers walk past the Adams rack and reach for the big boys’ clubs, that the better value in the store was overlooked.
ken
Feb 11, 2015 at 11:19 am
Advertising dollars must not be just spent. Those dollars must be spent in the correct places.
That translates to good marketing and keeps the consumer price down.
Having fewer PGA Tour players on staff also helps to maintain a reasonable price point.
DOug H
Feb 11, 2015 at 10:34 am
Barney,
I would have loved to been in those conversations I always tout the Adams Hybrids to my group. My favorite 3 wood to date for my steep swing has been the Adams Super LS 3 wood. I can’t tell you how many times I have had guys grab this club after hitting mine a few times.
I like your insight and look forward to reading more articles.
Doug
Bart Mellinger
Feb 11, 2015 at 10:30 am
Is this why you got into Long Drive back in 2008 (because it was cheap)? And did long drive move the needle for you at all? I know you had some pretty good hitters on staff (Sadlowski, Mobley, etc) but I’m wondering if you felt it was worth it in the end.
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 7:10 pm
Yes. We had to spend money giving our driver credentials knowing that the market sales would be minor. They helped us. Although I must say after watching a couple up close what they do to a golf ball is way off any grid.
Keith
Feb 11, 2015 at 10:23 am
No offense Barney, but the reason why your advertising didn’t work is because you chose strategies like putting hitting bays in tiny airports and thinking it would move the needle and drive sales (waste of money)…you needed advanced analytics and a robust digital marketing strategy and Adam’s wouldn’t adapt to the change in the marketplace.
You can measure ROI..saying $.50 wasted is such an old school mentality and couldn’t be further from the truth. When your competition is outspending you 10:1 there are ways to be scrappy and carve out your own share of the pie.
That ‘very costly’ display money could have been spent on driving awareness and consideration of your product which I would guess hovered around the 25%-35% range…rather than having someone stumble upon your product in store you could of had them seek it out. If consumers want something they go get it…it’s not a code that needs to be cracked.
And so goes the battle between “marketing” and “sales”
west
Feb 11, 2015 at 11:03 am
Have to agree with Keith. I know I’v been hard on Barney’s previous posts, and will continue to do so because his approach/perspective fail to demonstrate the ability to adapt and be innovative. Sorry Barney, but the cold hard truth is better that fluffy while lies to make you feel better.
If you couldn’t get proper brand space in the retail stores–build your own Adams retail chain. Include clothing, shoes, and balls. These other products would have been things you could compete on.
Having troubles getting marketing or tour presence? Ever heard of Google Ad Words? Screw tour players and retail big box. Appeal to customers online. And with the economy being what it has been since 2009, a product that appeals to customer’s wallets surely should have beat out all the overpriced competitors…Why didn’t that happen? If anything the economic recession should have been an opportunity in disguise for Adams…A resurgence if anything.
All I hear from you Barney is that Adams was doomed to fail from the beginning because you didn’t have the money or market share…worst excuse in the book. No one is going to give that to you, you have to go out and make it by adding value to your product. Which you never did.
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 7:05 pm
Build our own retail chain ! That’s it the one sure thing we never discussed!
west
Feb 12, 2015 at 1:31 am
Why Not?!? Put them in outlet malls initally. Surely with the additional merchandise, i.e. clothes, shoes, balls, bags, etc. you will be able to diversify, compete, and expand. I bet the margins are better too in these product types vs. clubs/equipment?
Del Capslock
Feb 17, 2015 at 10:33 am
YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS?!?!
How many mall based stores do you propose opening? And how much will it cost to get each one open? Ongoing costs & sales per store?
west
Feb 12, 2015 at 1:36 am
BTW I actually like the Adams branding waaaaaaaay more than the equipment for what it’s worth.
Rob
Feb 11, 2015 at 11:15 am
How much is Barney Adams worth….but yeah I’m sure he is taking your advice!?
Keith
Feb 11, 2015 at 11:20 am
Hey Rob,
People like Barney Adam’s pay guys like me to make these decisions for them…so in fact he/they already do take my advice. But thank you for adding to the conversation.
Rob
Feb 11, 2015 at 1:24 pm
“Guys like me…” So NOT you. He has done a fair amount for the golf industry, tough to compete with companies that have the ability to say yeah I like your idea and buy it out. But I bet you could have really saved him with your great advice!
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 7:07 pm
Keith. We had guys like you.
Keith
Feb 11, 2015 at 8:52 pm
When tasked with these hard decisions…did you listen to the marketing team or the sales team? Based on your comments in the article I have an idea…but would be interested as these conversations can be very interesting.
One guy brings theoretical volume to your business and the other has tangible numbers…I would be interested to get your point of view.
Barney Adams
Feb 11, 2015 at 9:16 pm
Of course you listen to the Marketing and Sales team. Sometimes when things were a toss-up we made regional decisions and tracked results. We definitely trended towards marketing. Sales guys get pretty united. Lower prices, more money for spiffs, market leading products good weather etc……
west
Feb 11, 2015 at 12:04 pm
It’s too late for Barney to take anyone’s advice…Rob.
BTW I’d rather have a thriving business with sustainability and little personal net worth, than a failed track record, money in the bank, and nothing better to do than write articles on an industry forum about why things were so hard me for back in the day.
Greg
Feb 12, 2015 at 12:38 am
West- Care to toss around any more compliments without putting your track record on the line for everyone online cowboy to snipe at? Mr. Adams seems to have done something- you?
west
Feb 12, 2015 at 1:19 am
I’m just getting started…
Greg
Feb 12, 2015 at 9:38 am
Your done. You will keep talking– all the while questioning others decision without exposing your own is the ultimate form of cowardice.
You are just another impotent internet cowboy denigrating someones work, (care to put yours on display?) Your pollution of this a discussion is more than worn out.
Good bye
west
Feb 12, 2015 at 11:30 am
Yeeeeeha! 😉
west
Feb 12, 2015 at 1:22 am
And am appreciative of people like Barney, because I will have learned from their mistakes.
Barney Adams
Feb 17, 2015 at 6:19 pm
Re hitting bays in tiny airports. TM is one of the most successful marketers in the industry. They have many bodies including experts on analytics. Suggest you contact them and ask them about the concept involving that program.