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Is Patrick Reed the most promising young American golfer?

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The golfing world seems to be constantly plagued with an inability to nail down its feelings toward Patrick Reed, who won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions at Kapalua on Monday.

They buried him for his “top-5 golfer in the world” proclamation — a curious response when so many complain over the blandness of the present-day Tour player. Oddly, Reed reversed course at the Biennial American Beatdown Ryder Cup, as winning and shushing a heckling crowd in the most jingoistic of events apparently solved everything (on the American base).

Just months later, the use of a gay slur on air — picked up by on-course microphones –precipitated a wave of backlash against the young American. Reed scored some points for his swift action in potentially saving his wife’s life following a seizure in a bathtub, but support for Reed overall remains tepid.

This indecision has not translated though to the views on Reed’s talent.

Here there seems to be little doubt: The 24-year-old is a star in the making. The talent of course is there, but something else about him permeates — his play is so fearless. He’s aggressive, he’s confident, he thrives under pressure, he’s a closer, he’s a winner.

And it’s hard to argue with that sentiment, as Reed has accrued four PGA Tour victories before age 25, only the fourth player to accomplish this feat (Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia are the others). The sky is the limit for this purveyor of bravado, and at this point a front is starting to form in support of hailing Reed as the most promising young American golfer.

And while he no doubt deserves plenty of praise for his on-course record and future trajectory, I think it would be wise to halt this hype train.

Maybe that sounds crazy. Reed after all has won FOUR times on the PGA Tour, and carries with him a swagger maybe unmatched by any golfer in the present day. He’s not afraid to make the unpopular choice and seems to be just fine on important Sundays.

But the reasons against his top perch among the crop of promising young Americans are too potent to discount.

The fact that Reed is a closer and a gutty final round competitor has already been well-established by the golfing faction, but such fervent and unrelenting praise doesn’t totally mesh with the facts.

The 24-year-old has experienced five real opportunities at a PGA Tour victory in his young career. He’s capitalized on four of these occasions, but one involved a seven-shot, 54-hole lead that he put himself in danger of losing late in the final round, and his one losing effort was a miserable one — a final-round 77 that dropped him from the third round lead outside the top 10.

A three-for-five showing of Sunday mettle is still quite enviable. It’s a small sample size though, and this closer inspection of Reed’s Sunday efforts seems to indicate that vulnerability is a larger part of the picture than Reed’s “closer” image would indicate.

Yeah, so? Reed is extremely talented and has already proven his adeptness at big events with a WGC, even if his “closer” reputation isn’t as potent as the public believes, a major has to be in his near future. Maybe the Jordan Spieths and the Rickie Fowlers — Reed’s main competition for this top spot — have high finishes in major championships, but they haven’t tasted the winning formula against a world-class field. Doesn’t Reed hold a distinctive edge here?

Not necessarily. Adam Scott won more often at a young age and was more furiously predicted for superstardom than Reed following his Players Championship win at age 23, but it took the Aussie more than a half-decade to start seriously contending in majors and nearly a full one to win his first.

OK, but Reed has something Scott, Spieth and Fowler don’t: An unwavering mountain of confidence that will fuel him up the mountain. Yeah, he’s cocky and that’s going to ride him straight to superstardom.

It’s funny that sounds sort of familiar… kind of like what was being said about Robert Gamez circa 1990! And we all know the legendary career that he had, one that didn’t include another PGA Tour win for the next 15 years following his electric first two.

The implication isn’t that Reed is on track to follow in Gamez’s path, rather that bravado can only have a minimal effect, if any. Talent and the work you put in matter far more to a successful on-course career than having the guts to shush a hostile crowd of fans.

And if this wasn’t enough to scare you away from believing in Reed’s “rightful place” perched atop the young American rankings, his inconsistencies should.

Reed Kapalua

Since the beginning of 2013, Reed has won four times in 57 PGA Tour events, which is highly impressive in golf, of course. Far less impressive are his 10 total top-10s in this span, his 20 total top-25s and a whopping 17 missed cuts.

For such a top player, he sure contends very little and misses an alarming amount of weekends. Yes, he takes great advantage of these few opportunities, but this doesn’t hold up over the long term. Look at the playing record of any player who won consistently over a long term, and you’ll notice a far better contention record.

All in all, this is not a forum meant to bash Reed or imply that he is not capable of a great career, because he certainly is.

But it appears that the aura gaining around Reed is stronger than the reality, and there are too many negative signs to believe that the 24-year-old can yet be considered the most promising among the young Americans.

The top crown still goes to Spieth, who I’ve already warned about overhyping. And honestly, Patrick Reed might be second on this list (although it still depends if Keegan Bradley qualifies at age 28). It is a distant second though.

Reed’s ceiling is high and he does have the potential for a superstar career, but characterizing him as the young American who you should bet your chips on the most is misleading.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Joe

    Jan 20, 2015 at 1:30 pm

    Let’s not forget what Rickie did in the majors last year and the strides he and Butch have made on his swing.

  2. Matthew Carter

    Jan 16, 2015 at 11:21 pm

    What Patrick has accomplished on the PGA Tour with four wins is very impressive.
    At the Ryder Cup he was lights out. Am I a fan of Patrick, no. I tend to respect individuals who walk in humility. Maybe I don’t understand Patrick and maybe I need to be give a little grace where grace is needed.
    Who do I think is the top young American ? After what he did in Australia and the numerous times the announcers shared how handled himself at media day and the welcoming dinner, Jordan is a class act. He lets his performance on the course do all the talking.
    A close second is Ricky Fowler. He’s flashy, cool and humble all in one. Great for golf and a solid role model for kids.

  3. Mark

    Jan 15, 2015 at 10:53 am

    I still think it’s ridiculous that Reed got all that flack for saying he was a top 5 player. It was an answer to a direct question about where he would rank himself and at the time he WAS playing some of the best golf in the world. The World Rankings work on a two year formula and I would say that at 14th he’s not too far away.

    I think your premise of inconsistency ruling him out as the next American star is wrong. The next big American star is NOT going to be Tiger-like and be in contention every week, etc. That ship has passed. Right now he IS the best young American player because it’s all about winning. I do think Speith is on the top of that list but I think the fire, confidence and fearlessness of Reed’s game puts him right there behind him at a close #2. And as for Ricky, when he actually wins something he can get in the conversation.

  4. Jafar

    Jan 15, 2015 at 9:31 am

    I think Spieth and Reed are neck and neck with this title. Both performed at the Ryder Cup and both won at the End/Beginning of the year at exclusive tournaments.

    I think the only thing left is who wins a Major first and how many. Also you need Final Round duel with a prominent European player.

  5. Rich

    Jan 15, 2015 at 7:50 am

    NO!

  6. Philip

    Jan 15, 2015 at 1:01 am

    test

  7. Philip

    Jan 15, 2015 at 1:00 am

    if you are going to write something stating “And it’s hard to argue with that sentiment, as Reed has accrued four PGA Tour victories before age 25, only the fourth player to accomplish this feat (Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia are the others).” then do some basic research please and get your facts correct.

    So you are saying only 4 players in the PGA history have won 4 times before age 25….
    Some addition players below and possible more :

    Water Hagen won 4 times before turning 25
    Phil Mickelson won 5 times before turning 25
    Sergio Garcia won 5 times before turning 25
    Rory McIlroy won 6 times before turning 25
    Jack Nicklaus won 8 times before turning 25
    Tiger Woods won 24 times before turning 25 (crap that’s a lot)

    • Kevin Casey

      Jan 17, 2015 at 12:15 pm

      Forgot to add in the phrase “in the past 20 years.” This wasn’t a lack of research, it was a stat that was going around after Reed’s victory, and I just left this phrase off at the end by accident. Thank you for pointing that out, my mistake in lopping off that important phrase.

  8. Kyle

    Jan 14, 2015 at 9:55 pm

    Honestly hope him and bubba never win again. 2 least favorite golfers by far. Reed should just let his game talk. Bubba is the biggest baby in the game and is a disgrace to golf fans. It’s 2015. People are going to have phones out. Get over it. Oh and that bunker that you left your shot in, it’s not the bunkers fault or anyone else’s except yourself

  9. Sean

    Jan 14, 2015 at 8:41 pm

    Reed: Talented, Pompous, Entertaining, Lack of respect, sounds like a gen x American kid. Best of luck to him. Although I believe that his swing will cause him injury in the future unless he learns how to keep his left side contained as he ages.

  10. Ronald Montesano

    Jan 14, 2015 at 6:27 pm

    What I like most about Kevin Casey is his due diligence. He digs out statistics and builds a story around them. He doesn’t find statistics to support a story he has already planned. Kevin, what was Reed’s consistency like in college? Did he contend way more often? If so, remember that he has taken about four steps up from D1USA to PGA Tour. Freak years like Fowler 2014 or Norman 1986 are rare.

    I don’t like putting anyone up as the next great player. We have a local PGA pro who used to say that about all his students. Trouble was, the papers and the kids believed it. YHDSY is the best thing to say to a young golfer; keeps her/him humble.

  11. Timbleking

    Jan 14, 2015 at 4:20 pm

    This guy has an amazing swing, and I love the way he manages the course. I don’t give a f* about anything else.

  12. cdvilla

    Jan 14, 2015 at 3:59 pm

    Everyone gets measured by majors. Grab a major and 10+ career wins, that’s a real accomplishment (see Zach Johnson/Jim Furyk.) I think that Spieth, Reed, and Fowler probably fit closer to this category than the next tier which in my mind is 4 and 20 (Ernie Els/ Ray Floyd.)

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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