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Starting a wedge business? I can help with that

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Let’s say you have temporarily abandoned your plan to introduce a full set of woods and irons, but your passion to be in the golf equipment business still burns. In desperation, you contact me to help with your wedge business and pay my upfront fee of a dozen low compression golf balls (you know, the ones designed for swing speeds that are barely moving). With the mutual understanding that you are definitely going forward, I take a few days and devise a plan.

Since you told me the golf balls had to wait a few weeks while your credit card balance dropped, it’s fair to say that unless a benefactor appears this will be a shoestring effort and I should advise accordingly. In the old days, I used statistical analysis on the cause and effect of ball flight. I determined that golf clubs are used in separate and distinct environments — namely ball on tee, ball on ground (including rough), ball in sand and ball on green. This may sound simplistic, but this type of analysis wasn’t the norm when I started on my own 27 years ago (or 40 years ago when I was hanging out with Dave Pelz). For example, fairway woods used to look like mini drivers and were not designed with a “ball on fairway” mentality save increased lofts.

First a bit of good news. Every currently significant golf club company (except Nike) had one club that got market attention and grew from there.

  • Adams and the Tight Lies
  • Callaway and the Big Bertha
  • Cleveland and its wedges
  • Cobra and the Baffler
  • Ping and the Anser putter
  • TaylorMade and metal woods
  • Titleist and the Bulls Eye putter

With a bit of a stretch, I could also point to Mizuno and irons and also Wilson Staff and irons, but Wilson is not a major player today. I include this bit of trivia to show that starting with one product doesn’t restrict a company from future growth.

The point is that if you become significant with a wedge it could open the door to other products, but first things first. As I said, we have ball on ground, ball in rough and ball in sand as three completely different design environments for wedges. Given our cost effective approach, ball on ground and ball in rough doesn’t fit. It’s not that you can’t make a great wedge; it’s the issue of marketing. There are dozens of wedge companies out there and they all have good designs and strong marketing stories. You are just starting and need the best chance of getting a clear message to the hearts and minds of millions of golfers.

In the literature you sent me, you had a design for a nice looking wedge and its appeal is the use of a soft metal which, in turn, produces a great feel and sense of control at impact. I don’t mean to belittle your effort but what you have done applies to maybe 5 percent of golfers — some of whom are given wedges as a promotional effort. Further, there is no significant relationship between soft metals and feel.

If you want to store this away, differences in feel for more than 98 percent of the golfing population are actually the brain reacting to sound. Put earplugs in, go to the range and test for yourself. The other 1+ percent are tour professionals, and I gained great respect for their sense of feel and never tried the sound blocking experiment with them. Ping has certainly been successful with golfers of every level, and I remember back when their clubs were supposed to be “too hard.” Turns out, they were very good!

So, with all this background my advice is to concentrate on one club (actually two, as you’ll see), the sand wedge.

We will call the sand wedge the “Beauty” — actually the “Beauty-1” and “Beauty-2.” If that name causes nausea, it’s your nickel. Finding a name for a golf club that isn’t being used or isn’t registered in some attorney’s office is a major project. You would never know unless you become successful. I picked “Beauty” because it’s so off the wall there is a chance that no one uses it, but I strongly advise you spend the money and get that name (or your name) verified.

The design of a sand wedge is all about dynamic bounce, which is the relationship between the bounce angle, sole width, face loft and type of sand. I’ll let you do the final design, but I suggest you research underslung head designs. Having the hosel somewhat removed addresses the shank, the bane of the average golfer.

  • Beauty-1 has a very wide sole with some bounce for soft, fluffy sand.
  • Beauty-2 is slightly narrower, but it still has a wide sole and essentially no bounce for hard-packed sand.

You said you have access to a machine shop where you can get samples made and you can test in different sands.

This is NOT a project for good players — this wedge is for those who approach sand traps with trepidation hoping to get out in one swing. Why? It’s simple: by far the biggest market. Your website should be technically accurate and enjoyable while showing both wedges’ designs and the types of sand that work best for each. It will explain “dynamic bounce” in detail, which will help you get to the heart of the average golfer and sell product. I will review the site when finished as part of my dozen balls payment. If I might intrude on your design, take a long look at the concept of “underslung.” It will certainly be a different look and maybe provide the claim of being shankless.

As for shafts, let’s go with one flex (stiff) and one type (steel). Why? Cost, and steel works fine. The challenge will be a controlled inventory after you fully test the machined heads to verify your concept. “Make them in China” is the easy answer, but you will need some leads on trustworthy suppliers and you will pay for tooling, initial samples and an agreement on an initial order. Make it as small as possible to save money, but small can easily be 1000 heads, a minor production run. I think I can dig up a couple of Asian sources when the time comes.

Setup your website and try to get some wedges in the hands of known instructors with an arrangement resulting in you getting quotes. Set a competitive price and sell direct over the net. I’ve just given you enough to do that. I’ll long run out of balls before you have more questions.

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Andy W

    Dec 15, 2014 at 12:46 pm

    Barney,
    Love your “breakout” club listing as I call it. Same list I have, but did not know the Bullseye putter was “it” for Titliest.

    Just sent to your email my job application to Taylormade who needs to grab me and my breakout putter I have developed “overnight” for 10 years. Well, it would have been overnight if could have avoided a 10-year battle with the USGA, which finally gave approval last year. LOL, we do this because it is fun and it’s our passion, right?

    Read your WOW book three times, every word, once out-loud to my wife.

    Asuume you now have some stock in TMag/Addidus, right?

    Thanks, and you are an inspiration.
    Andy

  2. Roger in raining NZ

    Dec 13, 2014 at 12:42 pm

    Barney, love the pairings to Fame!
    Cally Big Bertha, Adams Tight Lies,Cleveland 588
    And i have renewed confidence in my Ping S58 made from Hard Non Soft Cast Metal !! A priceless comment, Thanks!!
    You Beauty!

  3. Straightdriver235

    Dec 11, 2014 at 8:35 pm

    Here’s my idea, forget the wedges, we have too many of them, and only a few are decent. As a Marxist/critical/meritocratic golfer I desire to upset the status quo. I’m an older guy who walks for the health and enjoyment. I don’t think I am anywhere near alone on that. There is a market for what I am about to describe, a market that could take off. Frankly, 14 clubs might suit your company and the present state of the golf industry which wants to sell a lot of clubs, but after giving it quite a bit of analysis I believe less would be more. I believe sets need to be made smaller, requiring more skill, and bigger gaps between irons; also making the game more healthy and returning it to the intent that it be a walking game. I have an ultralite bag and carry only 5 balls, etc. but 14 clubs is way too heavy for this 54 year old frame to lug… it was always too heavy even though I was once young and strapping… as I have said before, elsewhere, this is more meritocratic–the ability of young players to carry their own clubs and play well is vastly underrated in the development of excellent players and future stars. Altering the degrees of existing irons is not sufficient as it messes with standard bounces. Instead of having a standard set with Lob/SW-58*, Gap-52*, PW-46*, 9 iron-42*, 8 iron-38*, 7 iron-34*, 6 iron-30*, 5 iron-26*, 4 iron-23*, hybrid-21*, hybrid-18*, 3 wood-14*, driver-9*, putter=14 clubs. You can see way to many WITBs where there are one or two clubs in the top players bag with almost no difference between the distances they hit. Simultaneously we need to advocate to reduce the club limit for tournament play, but even if that doesn’t work there are enough people who would like this. Someone, myself, needs to start manufacturing something along these lines–engineered for serious players… SW-55.5; Gap-50.5; PW/9 iron-45*; 9/8 iron-40*; 8/7 iron-35*; 6 iron-30*; 5/4 iron-24.5*; hyrbrid 19.5*; Driver/3 wood–13* with fairly large head, but no large that it can’t be hit off the ground, with the putter that gets you 10 clubs…. I’m seeing an alternate version with slightly wider spacing for 9 clubs. It is amazingly fun to carry your own bag with 9 or 10 clubs, and not so fun for 14. The cost of clubs goes down, people start walking, carrying their own clubs, their kids can caddy for them, instead of being surrounded by obese, arrogant, costly and slow we can have healthy, meritocratic, affordable and quick.

    Play would be a lot faster due to less need for deliberation, golfers would develop more skill in the ability to work the ball, hit partial shots.

    To brag about my system… I do this already, but am not satisfied with the grinds on the clubs…. however, my game has improved from a 4.5 to a 2.3 handicap. I strengthened the PW, and 9 iron one degree, the 8 iron two degrees, dropped the 7 entirely, weakened the 6 one degree, kept the 5 the same, and strengthened the 4 iron one degree. Tonight I had my second hole in one hitting a six iron where the shot would have normally called for a 7. Presently no company makes a small headed driver in the 420 CC range that is very square, and has a higher loft. When they sell the higher loft driver they always want a hook face on it and put a regular shaft in it because they assume you must not be very good if you are playing a high lofted driver… the interchangeable heads are an option.

    What’s my point? This could work… the game is messed up as it is, and the business model, starting with homes around the course, golf carts, over-manicured greens, courses that emphasize freakish distance have made the game not palatable.

    • BOB KNOX

      Dec 28, 2014 at 10:47 pm

      I have to say a lot of what you write in your article makes sense.
      I’m 68 (closer to 69) and I used to walk all the time until my knees and respiratory condition
      won’t let me walk and carry any more.
      But I like the concept of stronger lofts and less clubs, also which would enable the player to go
      to go to a lighter “Sunday” bag as it used to be called to help the player in reducing the load on the back.
      Good article, and very interesting. Good concept.
      Bob

    • Stephen Finley

      Feb 26, 2018 at 2:19 pm

      Yeah, that’s good. Really.

  4. riehlg

    Dec 4, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    I really think you should get the paperclip from the old MS Office to be saying the title of the article for the picture at the top. “Starting a wedge business? I can help with that!”

  5. Jonny B

    Dec 4, 2014 at 9:02 am

    There are a lot of fringe companies in the golf equipment industry that seem to be concentrating on doing one thing – a driver, wedge, ball, etc. Look at Krank, Bombtech, Kick X, etc. I’ve never tried any of their products though.

    Remember the Warrior hybrid club that the company was giving away for free with all those commercials? I wonder what happened to them. Just goes to show that even “free” products can’t generate enough buzz to make a successful equipment company. It’s a tough industry with some major barriers to entry.

    • Jonny B

      Dec 4, 2014 at 9:05 am

      As far as wedges go, there is SCOR, Hopkins, and now even Cleveland looks to be moving away from irons and woods and concentrating only on wedges.

      I love the point made about how “feel” is really only a product of sound. I’m going to try the ear plugs experiment at the range next time. I can see that being that case with drivers/woods, but I’m pretty sure that there’s more too it than sound, because I know I have hit some harsh feeling irons.

      • Justin

        Dec 16, 2014 at 7:05 pm

        Try it. You’ll be surprised. I got the idea from Ralph Maltby’s “11 Steps” fitting manual. Totally killed the “forged/carbon steel is softer than cast/stainless steel” myth for me.

    • Sully

      Dec 4, 2014 at 2:58 pm

      Jonny B,

      Thanks for throwing us in the mix. (BombTech). A fringe company is where I want to be. Because through our performance products and direct to consumer approach you have heard of us somehow, but the average Joe hasn’t and that’s the point. I could spend millions and sponsor pros in order to get exposure to golfers and non-golfers, but the industry has changed. Just like the craft brew industry. Yes beer…

      Small companies with high quality ingredients or materials – aka our 2 piece production process can survive (and dual cavity design)….Well..Only if you product that performs…and you still will face challenges. I am very fortunate to have had so much success but it is because of our story, expensive production process and press we have received (Entrepreneur Magazine, PGA Tour Radio, Golf Digest…etc.)

      I am always looking to learn from our customers and potential customers so if you have any additional insight or just want to talk. Call me (802) 448-2094.

      I could say more, but I can’t give away all of our secrets.

      Barney – Check your email…

      – Sully

      “Pull the pin!”

  6. Jafar

    Dec 3, 2014 at 4:34 pm

    Great article.

    Where can you have prototypes made?

    I’d like to design a wedge or even a putter, even if it’s just for my own amusement.

    • Barney Adams

      Dec 3, 2014 at 6:17 pm

      Ask the guys at Dog Leg Right or Tom Wishon. Remember you are embarking on an expensive hobby

    • Mike

      Dec 9, 2014 at 1:55 pm

      I’m not in the golf industry so don’t know about specific issues but I would offer a couple of ideas. There is an internet-based e-machine shop that hobbyists use for example to get obscure car parts made. They even have a web page about putters:

      http://www.emachineshop.com/machine-shop/Custom-Golf-Putters/page423.html

      Also you could look to a 3D printing company to get your part printed directly in steel. One that I’ve heard of is 3D Systems but there are others. I would guess that you’re looking at a bill around $2500 to print a wedge or putter and there’s no bulk discount with 3D printing so it’s not currently an option for mass-production.

  7. ptjn1201

    Dec 3, 2014 at 2:16 pm

    Finally, somebody understands that the packed sand many of us face at our local muni needs low to no bounce. Now I hope more people start listening to you

  8. golfiend

    Dec 3, 2014 at 1:33 pm

    Wedges tend to be replaced quicker than other clubs in the bag. Wedges can also be specialized for different courses and condition. I’m certainly not the only one that play different wedges for different courses. Generally speaking, a low bounce gap wedge and a high bounce sand wedge is adequate for many people including myself when I’m going to an unknown course. Then there is the material. Unless you’re vokey and can make cast wedges like they do and have the marketing power behind it, forged wedges tend to be favored by the enthusiast. But like the restaurant business, it’s not worth the risk. Still I agree that among the clubs we use, it is the entry point with the lowest, albeit still high, barrier.

    • golfiend

      Dec 3, 2014 at 1:36 pm

      I’m sure you’re going to write something about the putter because there are many types and people can go through many putters as well … like I have.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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