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Why you shouldn’t start a golf equipment business

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If I had to use one word that applies to the people in the golf industry, and specifically the golf equipment, it would be passion. These people love the game and want to be involved in some fashion. I was one of them, and still have letters I wrote to the major equipment companies seeking employment in the early 60’s. Suffice that the response was consistent throughout. No!

I mention my personal background to clarify that I’m no different than the folks out there today with product ideas looking for a way to bring them to market. Since I’ve retired, I’ve received dozens of emails with the same theme:

“Barney, I have this great [insert type of golf club] and if you could help me bring it to market I know it would be a great success.”

My philosophy is simple. These people took the time to contact me and deserve the best answer I can provide. Unfortunately, the answer isn’t always what they want to hear. Given their passion, I sometimes get a message back that goes something like this:

“You arrogant jerk! Who are you to respond that way? Just because you had some success…”

I understand their frustration. I suppose that “no” would be an easier answer to accept, but if you want to get in the golf equipment industry you have to consider the facts.

The metal woods and iron business is pretty simple. It’s a big boys game, and unless you have (many) tens of millions of dollars behind you don’t get involved. Remember, technology has plateaued and you are essentially entering a business that is tantamount to a fashion business — you’re up against established brands with hundreds of millions of dollars invested.

“I have great clubs and I’m going to sell them very inexpensively and compete that way,” you might say. My response would still be negative. Now you’re putting yourself up against discounted lines of major brands and that experiment has been done and failed.

The annual PGA Merchandise Show is where the equipment companies go to show their products. It’s a national show, so by going a company is announcing that it is ready to compete in that arena. I attended for more than 40 years and out of curiosity tracked equipment companies that attended the show between 1990 and 2000 — arguably some of the industry’s best years. I counted 129 equipment-only companies that attended the show during those years that are out of business, or at best, selling a little over the Internet.

Some of those companies were underfinanced, some had huge backers, some had good products and some products were closer to borderline. “Those who ignore the past are condemned to repeat it,” said philosopher George Santayana, and that’s my advice when I counsel people who are looking to get in the business of making and selling woods and irons. One caveat that could be a game changer: a clear, measurable, breakthrough technology as defined by improved ball flight. Oh, and with USGA approval!

OK, how about a swing training device? There are garages and back rooms full of partially used training devices. Once again, look at history; the success rate is in the 1 percent category. Look, I’m a golfer and I’d love to find a training device that would transport my swing back to an earlier era. In fact, I know how to do it. It’s called exercise and I’m holding out for the magic pill.

Your golf pro who likes your idea isn’t the market; it’s people like me. Does your training devices look weird? That’s a killer. Straps, hinges… anything that’s an easy target for teasing and a tough sell just got a whole lot harder. Given the hundreds of practice aids over the years, how many have you actually seen someone use on the range? One way to overcome that is educating the golfing public on the merits of the device and that’s media and big bucks. Success means sales of not thousands but hundreds of thousands; then issues like buying and storing inventory, shipping, billing — all the ” things” that accompany a business operation.

You say your idea is so good that an equipment company will want to pick it up and sell it? I say name one instance when that’s ever happened with a training device? Equipment companies concentrate on selling their clubs. My tip? Try developing a website and selling there. If the product is truly a breakthrough, it will be noticed. At least you get the experience of selling golf-related products.

OK then, how about wedges and putters? Everyone has different models, so that must be an opportunity. It’s a worthwhile discussion, and rather than use up several pages in this story, I’ll talk about it in my next story.

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

83 Comments

83 Comments

  1. Tom WIshon

    Nov 14, 2014 at 12:01 pm

    Having been in the equipment industry for 30+ yrs, Barney’s right about much of what he says. I too have had many of the letters, emails and phone calls from golfers who have the next greatest design idea. And it is tough to handle these in a nice way that won’t leave the person angry. Used to be back in the 80s you actually could look at what the person had and then offer a proper comment about why their idea wasn’t the next best thing.

    But then in the 90s and onward, the trend toward a much more litigious society began to come on and from that point, any company’s lawyers would tell those who would get these solicitations to just say no. If you looked at someone’s idea and you happened to be working on a similar, now your concept was potentially hosed legally for fear of litigation if you did go forward with it.

    So the “no I can’t look at what you have and don’t tell me what you have” response is very much prompted from a legal protection standpoint.

    As to the cost to get on the dance floor of the equipment industry, Barney is right. If you want to build a $20, $50, $100 million company, you better have $10 mill a year to spend in marketing to even have a shot. And even then there is no guarantee. I remember the former Burroughs Golf company from the late 90s or early 00s as an example.

    Backed by a wealthy shopping mall magnate from Indiana, they spent $35 mill in 3 yrs and failed miserably. They had name pros, they had tons of two page ads in every mag, and they were poof, gone.

    Shoot, in picking up the recent Golf Digest with Johnny Football on the cover, right on the inside front cover is a 6 page foldout ad from Callaway. That’s at least $400 grand for that and its ONE ad in ONE issue. Not to mention they have other ads in the same issue and TV ads and all sorts of other paid exposure. And there are 4 other OEMs doing the same thing. VERY tough to compete with that if you want to be even a small 8 figure company to follow a passion to be in the business.

    Guys, today, 5 companies control some 80% of the premium golf club market. Their combined revenues is in the $4 billion area and they each spend around $40-50 mill a year in marketing and promotion. So if you want to play in that arena, it’s not cheap.

    Yes, it is possible to be a small company and survive as long as you have good product and are in a niche area. But you’ll have to be happy with beans and franks and a real pride of ownership instead of expecting to live on steaks and get glowing attention from the media if you do that.

    • Mark Kaloustian

      Nov 14, 2014 at 7:40 pm

      Got any other insights you wanna share with the punters Tom? I’d really love to hear them, keep up the good work! 🙂

      Mark

      Mtek VersaSpeed

  2. Drew

    Nov 13, 2014 at 10:40 am

    Assuming you really knew you could be successful, you’d MUCH rather sell apparel or golf balls, because the margins are WAY higher.

  3. Mark

    Nov 12, 2014 at 1:25 pm

    Problem is Golf, like the electronics industry has become obsessed with the next year’s product before the current model year can even get a foothold. TM are part of Adidas who are now more of a fashion brand than a sports manufacturer. A good Golf club is a 5 year old Mercedes or 10 year old Rolex…still relevant and still effective. Anyone trying to take on the marketing might of TM and Nike is wasting their time and investors money.

    • JOEL GOODMAN

      Nov 12, 2014 at 8:48 pm

      10 YEAR OLD ROLEX? HECK, I AM WEARING EVERY DAY A 1967 ROLEX EXPLORER-II,THAT I BOUGHT NEW FOR $650, AND IT IS A GOOD AS THE DAY IT WAS MADE, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SCRATCHES. YES, I WEAR IT EVERY DAY, PLAY GOLF, SWIM, FISH WHATEVER AND IT STAYS ON MY WRIST WHERE IT HAS BEEN ALL THESE YEARS. I TAKE IT OFF TO SLEEP AND THAT’S IT.

  4. Dave C.

    Nov 12, 2014 at 11:02 am

    I don’t think the public, golfing and non golfing alike, will ever understand that golf is a difficult game. Equipment has very little to do with it. All clubs, from department store box sets to the finest individually fitted clubs are not going to make much difference in most peoples’ golf game. Practice and natural skills are the factors.

    The pros and top amateurs could scour Goodwill and make up a $10 kit and play well. The manufacturers don’t want the people to realize this. If they did, the equipment industry would be history. Clubs would be replaced when broken or too shabby for use.

    • Jack

      Nov 14, 2014 at 2:52 am

      People know it’s difficult, but they like to think they are better than they really are. Thus the constant denial and repeated buying of golf equipment. That and it looks nice.

    • Justin

      Dec 16, 2014 at 7:51 pm

      Coming to this thread late, but I have something interesting to add.

      In Jeff Sheets’ book “The Perfect Fit”, he talks about building a set of clubs for Lee Trevino. The thing of it was, Trevino wanted his iron set to be made from clubs he used before, each one having its own happy memory. That means the 3, 4, 5, etc., were all from different sets, and each individual club had its own memory.

      It came down to gauging hosel bores, BBGM measurements and cutting the shaft set Trevino picked to match up with each measurement. Difficult task, but not impossible.

      Long and short is, What Dave C’s saying isn’t some kind of blasphemy. Golf is golf; would buying a new mitt every 6 months make you catch a baseball better? Would buying this year’s shoe instead of saving money on a pair from 1, 2, or even 3 years ago make you run faster and jump higher? No. If you want to buy a new driver every 6 months, that’s a personal choice, nothing more. Whether we’re using a $10 Goodwill set or a $3000 brand new set of ‘s, we’re still golfing either way.

  5. renoaz

    Nov 12, 2014 at 10:11 am

    Here’s a concept…

    Let’s start a business collecting as many lost golf balls we can find. Sort them, clean them and sell them on Ebay. It’s not the equipment.. it’s YOU!!!
    Keep ’em where the mowers go!

  6. Chris Downing

    Nov 12, 2014 at 2:45 am

    I think Barney Adams was trying to write a piece that took us all inside the way the golf industry runs right now and share his insights with those who sit in the clubhouse over a beer and ‘hold court’ on what shouldbe happening or what could be happening with golf equipment. We are all guilty of doing that at some time. But as he says, there are some basic business models in play that make entry for new businesses difficult.

    There’s basic busines models that everyone uses, developed by people like Theodore Levitt, Michael Porter, and W. Edwards Deming for example. When one applies these models it becomes obvious how many barriers to entry there are. That’s why we see new entrants around the niche, peripheral markets, producing new carry bags, new milled putters, and new pitchmark repairers. A new club or set of irons is too difficult to get to market. This year’s demise of the TaylorMade financial results is all about how crowded the maket is and how difficult it is to get market acceptance for so many new product launches.

    What Barney Adams has shown us is why dreaming about becoming the next Eli Callaway is more nightmare than fulfilling a passion.

    A friend in the business said of my idea to start a little vineyard ,”Why don’t you get a big box of £50 notes, open the window, and throw handfuls of them out until they are all gone – it’s quicker, it’s little effort – but has the same end result!” Barney is telling us the same is true of golf.

    My prediction is golf will return to most players getting their clubs fitted properly and we will stop buying clubs off the shelf as we are now. Club fitting is a rising market. That means as a player, I use what the fitter (club professional?) recommends. If that happens it sidelines discounts, online purchases, club launches, what tour players using becomes irrelevant – the marketing target in this new model becomes the club pro and the fitter. In that new World, you can market balls, bags, gloves, and trollies to me – but not wedges, irons, and woods. Can you imagine how hard the big five manufactures of clubs will work to stop that vision of the future?

  7. marcel

    Nov 11, 2014 at 10:53 pm

    Barney – great article and great truth based on great knowledge. Arthur Honegger great composer of last century was asked many times to give lessons to young composers. He spend 1st meeting to deter youngsters from this “lifelong curse”… only strongest survived but hardly anyone heard of them…

  8. KK

    Nov 11, 2014 at 8:55 pm

    If the golf equipment industry is indeed like the fashion industry, that should actually give people hope, albeit with an entirely different mindset.

  9. Steve

    Nov 11, 2014 at 8:32 pm

    You arrogant jerk! Who are you to write this way? Just because you had some success. That’s hilarious…thanks for the insightful article and the dose of reality. Can’t wait to read the next article.

  10. markb

    Nov 11, 2014 at 7:47 pm

    Reminds me of the old joke.

    How do you make a small fortune in the golf industry?

    Start with a big fortune.

    • markb

      Nov 11, 2014 at 7:53 pm

      And many of the comments remind me of the other old joke from Dumb and Dumber.

      Lloyd: “I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?”

      Mary Swanson: “Not good.”

      Lloyd Christmas: “You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?”

      Mary Swanson: “I’d say more like one out of a million.”

      Lloyd Christmas: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance… YEAH!”

  11. Sully

    Nov 11, 2014 at 7:17 pm

    Barney,

    I would love to set up a call with you! Could we be the 1 percent? Thanks to all that have supported us! But I agree with you, unless you have a product that really outperforms or a brand that is truly unique it is tough…

    As always, pull the pin!

    Sully

  12. Dave

    Nov 11, 2014 at 6:49 pm

    Barney,
    An interesting question to be sure. However, I have a few questions for you.
    I think that there is a reason why the golf industry has “plateaued” and that is the rules for equipment. How can you explain the rules changes that has limited experimental clubs and heads and held development to a stand still?
    And how can you explain to us why the rules for the collision of the club with the golf ball has been held constant for the last fifteen years, thus limiting the ability of any golfer to improve. TIA MH

    • Evad

      Nov 11, 2014 at 8:23 pm

      Pompous prrrrick

    • Barney Adams

      Nov 11, 2014 at 8:29 pm

      At the risk of passing the buck you are in USGA territory and if I were to answer I would be speculating

    • Jack

      Nov 14, 2014 at 3:37 am

      Would a pin hole seeking golf ball help improve your game?

  13. Andrew

    Nov 11, 2014 at 6:29 pm

    Barney, Thanks, for contributing to the site. Please, come on to the instruction forum!

  14. Mark Kaloustian

    Nov 11, 2014 at 5:41 pm

    Hi Barney, i’m looking forward to reading what you’ve got to say about putters & wedges in your next installment. cant wait! Always loved your passion & insight for the good game of golf, theses articles are very informative for me! Keep up the good work!

    Mark

    Mtek VersaSpeed

  15. Gorden

    Nov 11, 2014 at 4:45 pm

    on training aids Klasy swing magic came out over 15 years ago when the Golf Channel was fairly new, has now come back as a training aid pitched by Hank Hanny??? Klasys started with a iron swing magic, then came the driver which Hanny is pitching….I wonder if Klasy went broke with his idea, which had to be fairly good or Hank Hanny would not back it now??

    • Adam

      Nov 17, 2014 at 4:17 pm

      Hank, like all the anointed teachers, is paid to market this stuff.

      You can buy any teacher, and any player. All it takes is a big check and they’ll be slinging your wares as well.

      Product is irrelevant as these guys are true shills. They’ll assign their name to any product as long as the check clears

  16. Manolo Carr

    Nov 11, 2014 at 4:10 pm

    As a year-round weekly senior golfer playing with 12 other like-minded fellows, I (we) like to fantasize playing like the pros, and getting some pars and rare birdies are what keep me (us) playing. That fantasy, mystic and challenge will get lost if rules and equipment are changed.

    So what can be changed to make it more challenging for the pros?

    How about changing golf courses? Or making design changes where there are not as very many straight fairways or limiting the straights to fewer than 300 yards? This will challenge drives towards accuracy rather than distance and the course can be adjusted to the non-pro by moving the teebox 40-50 yards closer so that we aren’t looking at a 500-yard par 4s or 200+yard par 3s! And I don’t think it will change the game of the amateur too much at all, especially with limited adjustments I suggest below:

    Los Angeles Municipal golf courses (owned by the county, senior green fee rates) already make adjustments like this by marking five TEE BOXES (some of them): black for professionals, blue for the young ‘uns, gray for us seniors, red for ladies, and orange for the kids.

    The key to universal enjoyment of the game is making the playing field ACCOMMODATE age groups and muscle strength for parameters over 150-180 yards, NOT by changing the rules, balls, or equipment, as it stands today. The rules that govern at this time are evolutionary and acceptable to most and, with just a FEW adjustments in catastrophic stroke penalties, as you mentioned (ex: OB, or lost balls), should not be changed too often so as not to alter the nature of the game and kept the same for all players, young and old, men and women, amateur and pros alike.

    Another issue I advocate for are SENIOR rates. Some L.A. county-owned municipal golf courses have five tee boxes marked off: Black for pros, blue for many men, gray for seniors, red for ladies, orange for kids. Look around at the senior market. Most can play on weekdays. Many play after 10:00 a.m. If a golf club has sunset rates, they should start them at 10:oo a.m.

  17. Chris Downing

    Nov 11, 2014 at 3:44 pm

    A lot of you guys sound just like the sorts who write to Barney and then don’t like his reply because it squash your ‘dream’. Business is business and having worked for major companies all my life until I retired, I can tell you they do whateverit takes to keep the shreholders happy, and trying to start up a company to displace the big boys or steal some market share just isn’t going to happen. You’d have to be just as big – like Nike -,or just eat scraps from the table like Giannini, Piretti, and the niche builders.

    The big breakthroughs in golf have been few – the Anser putter, the move to steel heads from woods, the sand wedge, and wide fairway woods like Adams Tightlies. Only a mojor game changer got these products widely accepted and that competitive edge didn’t last long unless there was something that could be copyrighted. For a one man band none of this is ever going to happen aginst the big five companies – and if someone does have a great idea, its way easier to sell it to a big five company than trying to develop it yourself.

    Barney Adams is just saying it as itis in the golf industry. It is not sour grapes, I know I’ve worked for big brands, it is just the way it is.

    • eric

      Nov 11, 2014 at 6:53 pm

      its better to fight for those “scraps” than not fight at all. any btw, those scraps are nothing to laugh about. look at brands like byron morgan, or scratch, or even hopkins. i agree, most big companies are held to their shareholders. but people don’t start companies because they are planning on displacing the “big boys”, they do it because they think they have a cool idea that might sell and they are passionate enough to take a risk and put themselves out there. many of these people reach out to Barney to get some advice on how to make it from someone who was once in their shoes and basically he’s telling them to not even try. yes, the likelihood of a small startup succeeding is small. but as the great wayne gretzky once said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

  18. golfing

    Nov 11, 2014 at 3:41 pm

    People say here this is business not passion, well there is no business
    without passion that is sustainable or “healthy”.
    You could take a businesses model that put millions on advertizing and endorsements and another in marketing staff, sales, engineers, cad programers like never seen before, make monthly orders in the China factory of a new line of irons or woods like it was a par of socks, the result in the short time maybe nice, but in a couple of years the market
    is chocked with 500$ drivers and 1500$ irons that stores try to stuff it
    in you, at any cost(smaller company’s).

    Also this “business” plan is making players numbers swamp, with nice
    manicured Trump courses that are 50 miles long and the only propose
    is real state sales, and cost 5000 to play at the cost of other.

  19. Golfraven

    Nov 11, 2014 at 2:21 pm

    I would rather agree just looking at myself and which brands I am buying and would try in the future – mail OEM. What about the childrens/kids golf equipment market? Still very untouched and no great day offering on what is already out there. I found new kids clubs from Scottland that really excited me. http://golphinforkids.com Those guys just started going into the market this year.

    • ParHunter

      Nov 12, 2014 at 12:17 pm

      Yes seen them as well. I think I know what my little boy will get for his birthday 😉

  20. T-MAC

    Nov 11, 2014 at 1:44 pm

    I went through Titleist, TM, Mizuno, and Callaway forged irons over the past several years and wound up with a set of Adams CB2’s with KBS shafts. Best irons I’ve ever hit. Liked them so much I bought a set of forged Pro a12’s in the same dark finish as the CB2’s, so I’ll be ready to replace my irons when my CB2’s finally wear out.
    Sorry to see what has happened with Adams after they were purchased by TM. They stole the slot technology from Adams and I guess they figured it would be easier/cheaper to buy the company than to go through legal action. Never should have sold out Barney!

  21. Rick Norton

    Nov 11, 2014 at 12:54 pm

    Golf companies & people who get into this business are in it for the business. It takes a great idea to be evolved into something for the masses. But what’s the real driving factor? Is it really to help golfers out there to score better? No, it’s giving people what they think they need. People get in this business & any other business, & that’s to make money. To get rich & make life “easier” for them financially. If you’re trying to stay in the business with your passion….the business may eventually fail, but do you ride it to the end or do you sell out to a bigger boy? The latter tends to let walk away with a thicker wallet. And you don’t have to continue having to work for a living.

  22. Ryan Buzelli

    Nov 11, 2014 at 12:03 pm

    I recently started a milled putter business, with divot tools. All milled in the USA. Shafts by true temper, grips by PURE grips. In light of the hardest path I have ever endured, it is a wonderful experience . With 100% made in USA putters and divot tools and attention to customer service, I do think eventually Buzelli Golf will be noticed. It seems it will be a long journey just to get my name out there, but i wouldn’t have it any other way. Wonderful reviews thus far from online forums and others. Being a regular guy that just plainly loves golf, I feel Buzelli Golf will prove to be slightly different then the others. I am at many disadvantages then the big dogs, but personally I’m ready to go head on and show people, it doesn’t have to be a certain way. Let’s buy American, let’s get personal attention, let’s have customized options with no upcharge. I still work my day job, is it possible to do putters for a living? I don’t know. At least I am giving it a go. Hope passion will prevail.

  23. West

    Nov 11, 2014 at 12:02 pm

    Worst advice…EVER!!!

    If people didn’t try new things because they were hard, or the odds were stacked against them, or because there were already other big fish in the pond, we wouldn’t have companies like Apple, and Steve Jobs would either be stuck in a cubicle writing software for some other big company, or still in India seeking “enlightenment.”

    It’s no wonder Adams Golf is a thing of the past. No gusto, no determination, no grit, no innovation, nothing more than a thing of the past…Sorry Barney, but the lesson to learn in your piece is not what you advise, but to ignore it full heartedly.

    • Dustdevil

      Nov 11, 2014 at 12:18 pm

      Here’s the problem though…

      What if someone told Steve Jobs you can only build a computer that can only go so fast and work only as well as everybody else’s? Back in the glory days of the components, companies like Integra, Bang, Golfsmith (SnakeEyes), etc. could be innovative. They brought the modern 460cc head to the consumer before the big guys. But the playing field has been leveled in so many ways, I do see Mr. Adams’ point.

      Now putters, that might be a different story…

      • West

        Nov 11, 2014 at 12:39 pm

        Have to disagree.

        Even in the world of tech, things are still limited/constrained by the laws of physics and material availability. And while tech is still climbing to meet its “plateau,” there will always be ways to innovate and compete.

        I just find it so distasteful for Barney to basically say: “He kid, you got a great idea? Forget it. There’s no reason to fight, the bigger fish will eat you alive.”

        And while this might be the case 90 out of 100 times, philosophically this is a principle I can never abide by. It goes against the entrepreneurial spirit, and what makes this country great.

        • West

          Nov 11, 2014 at 12:48 pm

          Barney could still learn a thing or two…

          http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/238960

        • John

          Nov 11, 2014 at 12:54 pm

          The bigger fish actually win more like 99,999 times out of 100,000. Most small fish are dead after Year 1. Nothing at all distasteful about what Barney Adams wrote. “Entrepreneurial spirit” means being realistic, not dreaming up scenarios that don’t make sense fiscally or blind optimism. I would take it from somebody who has actually been there….

        • bradford

          Nov 11, 2014 at 2:19 pm

          What if someone told Steve jobs he could make a slower, but prettier computer and sell it for 3 times the price? or rather a simplified version of a smartphone for 3 times the price? Clearly some did tell Steve jobs this…

          Your logic is good, but you chose a bad example.

        • Simon Max

          Nov 13, 2014 at 6:18 am

          Do you really think Barney’s article would stop a committed entrepreneur from following his dreams. Come on.

    • Barney Adams

      Nov 11, 2014 at 12:55 pm

      Since there are several comments that fall into the “arrogant jerk” category or that I’m bitter, mean spirited , broke , shorter off the tee, etc…..this is a universal response. I do not try to crush , discourage I make them aware of history and offer suggestions on a path where they can follow their dream and not go broke. . When you compare golf innovation to computers remember that golf is essentially technically restrained.

      • Manolo Carr

        Nov 11, 2014 at 4:24 pm

        Adams golf clubs, to me, were always innovative but affordable.
        I loved the A-series irons OVERSIZED which were very forgiving, and the Tight Lies fairway woods. As an engineer, I wasn’t swayed by what’s popular or “hot” but what I thought were designs which make sense.
        Thanks for getting me back into golf, Barney!

    • Joe

      Nov 11, 2014 at 1:09 pm

      West from your post I would gather that you’re only experience with golf is from the consumer side. You have no idea what you are talking about in terms of golf, as evidenced by your baseless acuzations about how Adams Golf was ran. You obviously know nothing about the game or Adams Golfs reputation within that game. Good luck leading the blind.

      • Pat

        Nov 11, 2014 at 3:21 pm

        +1 Joe. I think Adams made some wonderful clubs, especially their hybrids and forged irons. Barney is truly a genius in the golf world and ran his business the right way and still managed to succeed financially. It’s a shame that TM bought out his company, but that’s the way business goes. I was once interested in starting my own line of clubs back in the day, but after I talked to some the biggest executives in the golf equipment business, I decided not to go that route. The risk versus the reward gap is just too great and the chance of failing is astronomical unless you have tons of capital as Barney suggested. Kudos for Barney for telling it like it is and not sugar coating anything.

  24. Adam

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:59 am

    Very true Barney but its best to encourage entrepreneurship rather than deter. Not too many professions or successful business people actually encourage participation. If you ask any great writer or business person for advice on entering and succeeding in their trade, almost all will say the same thing. Don’t do it! But as we know, success is neither easy or quick but it takes participation and often times, blind faith.

    As someone who does have a golf training product business that has seen success, I can state that it is without exception the failings of the person to understand the market rather than the failings of a product or gadget. Most golf entrepreneurs either fall in love with the idea of being involved in the business or their product itself. They know very little about marketing, sales, manufacturing and partner management and fail miserably to heed any advice on such. Visions of grandeur fill their dreams even when the actual numbers fail to impress.

    The biggest challenge to any new product today is gaining shelf space and attention. The equipment guys have the retail channels locked up and they are fierce in their defense of shelf space. The big retailers make it next to impossible for any small guy to break through because of obfuscated buying processes, expensive vendor requirements and a slew of other onerous and challenging rules and compliance rules. It’s hard, its expensive and the end of the rainbow isn’t loaded with a pot of gold. Lots of golf and the ability to be in a business that you love. That’s what is at the end of the rainbow.

    But it can be done and we should encourage folks to tackle their dreams and give it a shot. But perhaps we should just offer them more realistic advice instead of just a loud no. Jerry Seinfeld said that the people who are most successful in show business are the people who wanted it more than anyone else. There is a lot of truth to that statement when it comes to golf as well… but you can’t ignore the numbers for even though golf is a religion to many, it’s still a business.

    • eric

      Nov 11, 2014 at 7:00 pm

      couldn’t agree with you anymore. encouragement, not criticism.

    • Barney Adams

      Nov 11, 2014 at 7:43 pm

      All of which is exactly why I give a business / history lesson. Not to shut them down but to get them thinking about how specifically to have a chance of survival

      • Eric

        Nov 12, 2014 at 2:57 pm

        and i believe that isn’t the right thing to do. most realistic people know that their chances are slim to none and yet they are still willing to take a chance and put themselves out there. they probably already have tons of naysayers telling them they are going to fail and they shouldn’t even try. but they come to you as someone who once was in their shoes. someone with an idea and a dream. and most importantly, someone who managed to defy the odds and actually succeed. they are hoping you can provide some insight and wisdom on how to succeed, not a history lesson on the fact that their journey will be difficult and more than likely will result in failure.

        i liken someone approaching you about a business idea to to someone asking you advice on climbing a mountain. yes, its hard and yes you probably will fail. but people don’t want to hear you talk about all the shitty parts of the climb and the frostbite you got and the sherpa that died on the way. they want to hear about how awesome the journey was and the beautiful stuff you saw on the way and the sense of accomplishment you felt when you reached the summit.

        clearly you’e entitled to respond in any way you desire since these people are reaching out to you and not vice versa. and its unreasonable to think you’re going to be the mentor for any random Joe that emails you with his idea. but I believe that providing constructive criticism while providing encouragement and advice is the way to go.

  25. D.S. Graybeal

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:53 am

    I spent 36 years in the equipment business and retired on Jan 1, 2009. Every year since then at the PGA Show old friends still in that end of the business come up to me and say, “you are so lucky you retired when you did.”

  26. Chris Downing

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:51 am

    I think Barney has been though enough to have learnt how the golf industry works. Having said that, there is nothing to stop anyone making their own putters, bags, trollies, and stuff. It’s probably in those areas you see most new names. Trouble is, golf is no longer a developing market, its plateaued with the dominant brands. Look how hard it has been for Nike to break in and establish some market share worth having. Secondly passion is a very poor guide to a career. Although the idea of following your passion is almost mythical, the facts show it to be a very risky way to choose how to make a living. The practical approach is to identify what people want to pay for and start working in that area. In that way you immediately identify that your fellow golfers are not thirsting for yet another brand of irons and woods. Although someone who can produce an inexpensive, light weight, trolley battery would get lots of votes. Of course the budding putter maker doesn’t want to hear that everyone wants cheap, reliable batteries – his passion is putters (which is not what golfers are asking for).

    The new products and services in the golf market will probably come from those who listen most carefully to players. When enough players are looking for the answer to the same problem, then the person who solves the problem is the one who will have a new product that everyone will want. Of course approaching it that way and waiting to identify the golf problems isn’t what a budding golf entrepreneur wants to hear. They want to get started on their new club design and then out sell, out market, the competition. And you know what, if you raise the money to get started there will be plenty of people willing to help you spend it on marketing and selling and never tell you that you are stupid.

    Just read Cal Newport’s book, “So Good They Can’t Ignore You”, and sit back and have another think about following your passion.

    • Pat

      Nov 11, 2014 at 3:27 pm

      Nike is doing just fine now with the golf line. They had inferior equipment when they first came out but learned to keep up technology wise and invested more capital in their products. Now with all their marketing and technology, they still manage to rake in high revenues annually. They also had more than enough start up capital to begin with which gave them a huge advantage. The average start up company doesn’t have the resources Nike had, so their chance of failure is astronomical.

  27. Bradley

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:44 am

    Barney, I recall being in the Carolinas PGA and spending much time in the Pinehurst area. Circa -91-92. There was a big guy, pro from the area. Cannot for the life of me remember his name. Apparently you had brought him in as area/territory manager for the Carolinas. Knowing my sales experience, he courted me hard for your company to come in and sell. Lynx was after me at the same time. I just wanted to play and teach. In hindsight, perhaps the biggest mistake I ever made not coming on board with Adams. Congrats on all your success. It would have been a fabulous ride!

  28. EBeaudry

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:39 am

    Considering Barney sold the business off to TM – it’s not the demise of the brand he pioneered. It’s the consolidation of the brand from a costing standpoint.

    Signs of the times for golf…..

  29. MHendon

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:38 am

    Yeah it will be interesting to see if Hopkins golf can make it through this mine field.

    • bradford

      Nov 11, 2014 at 11:52 am

      Well, have you actually looked into their “factory direct pricing”? By the time you have customized the wedge to your liking, it’s identical if not considerably higher than current offerings. And if guys can’t thump it on the ground (for whatever reason) at the shop, it’s a hard sell…

      • Gorden

        Nov 11, 2014 at 4:36 pm

        Trying to grab on with the “Custom” idea….Pros make a living with thier clubs and the big boys will make them anything they need (most of the time right now in a tour van) I think Hopkins is trying to bring a “Pro” moment to the wedge and iron buyer, tuff row to follow.

  30. psygolf

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:32 am

    Other things to consider…one, if you make a splash and start taking market share from the big boys, the lawyers you’ll need to battle theirs will kust about bankrupt you…Adams, Orlimar. Secondly, these companies that find initial success & followings start to think they can reinvent every club category…Adams, Orlimar, Scratch. Hubris run wild, even the Izzo bag company came out with a set if irons-lol.

  31. Eric

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:30 am

    as someone who has found great success in this industry, an industry that we are all PASSIONATE about, i think Barney should be spending his time encouraging young entrepreneurs and providing constructive criticism rather than telling them “the best answer he can provide” which seems to be him crapping on their ideas based on responses he is getting.

    yes, i agree that he doesn’t need to sugarcoat his thoughts or blow smoke up someone’s butt, and of course of course there are thousands of cautionary tales to tell. but there are plenty of success stories within the market as well including his very own which makes it even more odd that he doesn’t seem to encourage these people rather than give it to them straight. its understandable to give people a healthy dose of reality however whats the point of shutting down their ideas? you’re basically telling people their ideas suck and don’t even try to pursue your dreams and instead play it safe.

    call me a dreamer or out of touch with reality but i think we should encourage more people to take risks. in an industry that is declining, we need MORE people who are passionate about the sport and committed to making it better, not LESS.

    • West

      Nov 11, 2014 at 11:52 am

      I think you are spot on…Barney is just bitter he never made it into the “Big 3” and had to sell out to stay above water.

      • bradford

        Nov 11, 2014 at 11:56 am

        I would look on that from the other side. If I had technology so slick that the big “one” bought my company for the patents, I’d call that a success.

      • Joe

        Nov 11, 2014 at 1:21 pm

        Wow West!! What’s your hard-on for Barney all about? Are you his stalker? Did he not hire you for a job? Are you jealous of his extraordinary success and reputation in his chosen profession? Seriously man, you come across jilted and jealous, what gives?

    • Adam

      Nov 11, 2014 at 12:05 pm

      Agreed but as I said in my post, its pretty normal for the old guard to discourage the new kids in almost every profession and industry. Golf is no different but its one heck of a tough market. People are woefully ignorant on basic business and marketing knowledge and enter into the market blinded by their love of their product and/or the game itself. Any trip to the PGA Merchandising show will leave you scratching your head and wondering “what were they thinking?”

      • AJ Jensen

        Nov 12, 2014 at 10:43 pm

        Here’s the thing; business is cutthroat and the golf business is especially so. Does that mean success is impossible for the right product or startup company? Of course not. But the next Karsten Solheim will face a lot more crap than Karsten himself did, and have to be a shrewd businessman as well as inventor of a game-changer product.

  32. Jafar

    Nov 11, 2014 at 11:05 am

    That’s funny. More marketing and money are spent on drivers and slick new irons, but the most important and coveted clubs in the bag are still wedges and putters.

  33. Mike Belkin

    Nov 11, 2014 at 10:59 am

    I have many ideas for golf products and services, but golf clubs are certainly not on the list! The amount of crap one sees at the PGA show is phenomenal. I hope people read this article and think twice before they invest their time and money into poor concepts.

  34. AJ Jensen

    Nov 11, 2014 at 10:47 am

    The XTD hybrid is the finest golf club ever made. I have one in every loft, and load up for my rounds depending on how I’m swinging that day.

    The second finest club of all time is the Adams Proto mini-hybrid, which serves only to disgust me for the years I wasted in trying to hit long irons when I could have been landing greens with my Proto. No club requires less effort for distance, and I have hit almost everything on the popular market.

    Mr. Adams I hope you read this, and accept my sincere thanks for putting a golf club in my bag that actually made a difference in my entire game.

    • Kdubbs

      Nov 11, 2014 at 12:02 pm

      Thank Tmag for those hybrids, B Adams had nothing to do with it…

      • bradford

        Nov 11, 2014 at 2:25 pm

        Are you serious? I hope you’re not serious…

        wow. Really? Jeez…I’m not sure where to begin with this one

      • Pat

        Nov 11, 2014 at 3:49 pm

        Kdubbs, you are clearly either a Tmag slurper or just ignorant. Adams was the first company to find success in the hybrid, NOT TM. They were the first ones to implement slot technology into hybrids as well. TM decided to buy Adams and copy their technology. Next time, before you say anything that is false, do some research, little boy.

        • Regis

          Nov 11, 2014 at 4:21 pm

          Actually the first “hybrid” was in fact the TM “Rescue”. Taylor Made (which also invented the “Pittsburgh Persimmon”-now called the Metal Wood) was owned by a man named Gary Adams. That is why it is still called the “Rescue” to this day and every one else calls theirs a “Hybrid” Oh and I am neither a TMAG slurper or ignorant.

          • Barney Adams

            Nov 11, 2014 at 7:50 pm

            Actually the first hybrid was the Troon clubs a mixed bag of hybrids and irons. Came out about 1870 Hard for me to remember I was still in grade school

          • bunnyfoofoo

            Nov 12, 2014 at 9:17 am

            Hahaha. Gotta love Barney.

          • Adam

            Nov 12, 2014 at 11:50 am

            I thought it was the Ginty. I have my grandfathers in the garage, looks just like a modern hybrid and slightly wider than the TM rescue club.

      • Joe

        Nov 11, 2014 at 3:53 pm

        Kdubbs, I play a lot of TM equipment, and I can tell you that you don’t know what you’re talking about! TM has almost never had an original Hybrid idea. One of the major reasons TM bought Adams was because they kept running into Adams patents! You may be too young to know this but Adams invented the modern hybrid. Adams took one club and turned it into an equipment manufacturing company! I doubt that will ever happen again in golf. Thank TM for an Adams hybrid, you’re so funny!

      • Manolo Carr

        Nov 11, 2014 at 4:13 pm

        Who cares who did what? I think we should care that technology is moving forward and that benefits all.

    • AJ Jensen

      Nov 12, 2014 at 10:37 pm

      Y’all are going on about who invented the hybrid first, and completely beside my point here about the sheer perfection that is the XTD Super Hybrid and the Proto mini hybrid. I can hit those clubs on my worst day, when everything in my bag fails in my hands, and on a good day the XTD hits like a Barrett rifle. I can get on in two where I never could before, all because of a golf club. In a world where companies are full of crap the XTD and Proto stand alone as the real deal. Regardless of who invented the hybrid first.

  35. DP

    Nov 11, 2014 at 10:38 am

    Kind of a funny article as Adams is currently be shut down in Plano, TX.

    • charlie

      Nov 11, 2014 at 11:37 am

      That is because Taylor Made bought them and has moved the operation to their Carlsbad headquarters. Besides, Barney has not been involved with them for years have sold out long ago.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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