Opinion & Analysis

Barney Adams Wants To Keep The Golfers We Have

Published

11 years ago

Aug 23, 2013

There was a time in his professional career when Barney Adams sat near the top of the golf industry. His Tight Lies clubs were the darling of the industry and his eponymous company was growing at a profitable rate. That was back in the 1990s, when the combination of the baby boomers’ interest in golf and the advent of the Tiger Woods era gave golf its biggest boost since the 1950s and 60s.

Golfers of that era demanded (or at least we thought they demanded) courses of extreme length, to attempt to match their skills with those of the touring professionals. Many were built to accommodate this desire.

Time travel forward to 2013, where golf finds itself in a different state of grace. Course development in the U.S. has ground to a halt, and golfers are left with tracks that measure 7,200-plus yards. The Tiger impact has nearly extinguished itself and the boomers, sadly, have aged. And Barney Adams has sounded a trumpet blast of reaction to the excesses of the 1990s.

In a brief treatise he titled “A Solution to Golf’s Product Rejection,”Adams reveals a hypothesis called the Tour Test. His proposal would bring skill levels and courses in line, and work to keep current golfers in the game longer.

Adams eschews the vapid distance promotions of extreme courses, opting to focus not on length, but on shots into greens. That’s why he identified specific data on the clubs that male touring professionals hit into greens.

“Tour players will hit 6 or 7 irons into the green 26 percent of the time, an 8 iron 36 percent of the time and 9 irons or wedges 22 percent of the time,” said Adams, who gleaned the data from the PGA Tour’s ShotLink system.

Since amateur golfers typically have much longer clubs into greens and are affected psychologically by forced carries and other hazards that barely attract a touring professional’s attention, the combination of the two elements results in less success and enjoyment from approach shots. The joy born of a successful drive (often hit with an expensive driver) is offset by weak play into the green.

Amateur golfers, not touring professionals, drive the economic realities of the game. Golf now more than ever needs to direct its focus toward the amateur golfer and make the game enjoyable. Initiatives like “Tee It Forward” and “While We’re Young” promote themselves as bettering the game, but they don’t go far enough. After a thorough read of Adams’ treatise, it becomes quite evident that it’s not where you start the hole that matters, but the point from which you approach the green. Adams has determined that the magic bullet is the 8 iron. If an amateur golfer is able to hit an 8-iron (often an amateur’s favorite iron) 36 percent of the time into the green, success and enjoyment ensue.

Adams dreams of relocating yardage disks away from an emphasis on 150 yards, down to 135 yards, the average 8-iron distance of the male amateur golfer (he has similar data for women). He envisions the twin end results of his labors, neither of which he directly mentions in his monograph:

“The first is the issue of slow play; very simply, if golfers learn to play from the correct approach area play will speed up,” Adams said. “I realize slow play is a study unto itself, but this movement is definitely on the right side of the equation. The second is cost; I believe in value. Once you get courses playing correctly, you’ve increased value. The marketplace will determine actual cost far beyond any words by me.”

Throwing money at a headache is a basic and doomed approach to problem-solving. Adams prefers to break down the entire situation and determine the best element to target to resolve the dilemma. If American golf can trust itself enough to try the Adams Tour Test approach, it just might find the cure (rather than the panacea) it desperately needs.

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Ronald Montesano

Ronald Montesano writes for GolfWRX.com from western New York. He dabbles in coaching golf and teaching Spanish, in addition to scribbling columns on all aspects of golf, from apparel to architecture, from equipment to travel. Follow Ronald on Twitter at @buffalogolfer.

37 Comments

Golfer X

Sep 6, 2013 at 8:42 pm

Way too easy, have a marshal, actually knows the game; tell him to kick a the foursome off the green when they start to plumb-bob a 4 foot putt. That’ll will get some action.

Reply Report comment
Ronald Montesano

Sep 2, 2013 at 7:37 am

I played a two-man scramble this weekend. I am a 5 and my teammate is a 10. The event was won by two guys who must have a combined 5 between them. Two divisions and we fell at the bottom of the upper division. Our score would have won the lower division. Sometimes there isn’t a place for you and you play for love and competition.

In the case of tee decks, there always is a proper place for you. If ego gets in the way of enjoyment, you lose. The scorecard (outside and in) cares only about the number you write down. Hitting a 240 yard approach that you can’t handle has little chance of elevating your esteem nor relieving tension. I’m told recreation is meant to do both.

Reply Report comment
Sean

Aug 25, 2013 at 5:16 pm

I see the majority of golfers hitting fairway woods and hybrids into par fours. I ask myself, “How much fun can that be?” How often will the golfer have a birdie putt hitting those clubs into par fours?

Yet, they persist playing from tee boxes too far back. It has nothing to do with handicap, it does have to do with how far one hits the ball.

Reply Report comment
Ronald Montesano

Aug 24, 2013 at 9:58 pm

The USGA is, in many ways, like the Vatican. You’ll not see it part with money. The bonus proposal is rife with potential for fraud.

Poor play is not enough to convince people to move up a deck.

I agree that moving up brings a different set of hazards into play, or at least a different look to the course.

Reply Report comment
Matt

Aug 24, 2013 at 9:55 pm

Sure the average male golfer may hit an 8 iron 135 but ask that same male golfer how far he hits it and he’ll say 150 plus every time. The problem isn’t the length of golf courses from my experience they all have multiple tee’s to choose from but instead the fragile male ego. I’m a low handicap golfer with length similar to touring pro’s so naturally I play the back tee’s most of the time. Whenever someone joins up with me 90 percent of the time they play the back tee with me when they have no business being back there. I always tell them play whatever tee they’re comfortable with but once again that fragile male ego gets in the way. Sometimes I’ll move up just to make things easier on them.

Reply Report comment
ABgolfer2

Aug 24, 2013 at 8:35 pm

Not rocket science. Encourage people to keep an index and play competitions. They’ll soon find a set of tees that works for their game. Want to get more people through the gates ? Have two shotgun start tee times per day and everything else is twilight at reduced rates. The best part of this article is the Barney Adams quotes were text not audio.

Reply Report comment
mr_divots

Aug 24, 2013 at 3:18 pm

I have to say, one of the longest rounds I had this year came on one of the shortest courses I play. The COURSES need to do a MUCH better job of managing play and how they put golfers out on the course. This particular instance, they had the mens club and two womens clubs playing matches, with 8 minutes between them and general public play. 6200 yards took 5.5 hours. I don’t care what tees you play from that course, it should take no more than 3.5 hours to play such a track. That’s all on the courses trying to rake in as much money as possible in a down economy without much of an eye to the furture and what kind of experience they are providing presently. Everyone is scared to death to tell people to pick up the pace for fear of REVENUE loss.
Approach this angle and we may get somewhere.
USGA “Fast Play Rewards?” Finish in sub 4 hours and get $10 off your next round? That’s my idea anyway. USGA can do something with all their club approval profits and tournament cash and skip the private jets, thank you.

Reply Report comment
Isaac Ward

Aug 24, 2013 at 1:11 pm

Totally agree with Zeeraq. Courses should ask for your handicap when you reserve tee times and then have the starter enforce them on the first tee.
0-2 Black Tees
3-10 Blue Tees
11+ White Tees
Seniors with anything over 9 HCP – Gold Tees
Women and Juniors with anything over 9 HCP – Red Tees

Reply Report comment
- Joe
  
  Aug 25, 2013 at 7:39 pm
  
  Can’t agree more.. Look I’ve been a teaching pro before, I’m currently a trunk slamming pro.. And I’ve send a ton of great players, and a ton or terrible players..
  In my opinion women shouldn’t be allowed to play until after noon unless accompanied I a man.. Men should not step foot or be allowed on a golf course until they’ve reached an 18 handicap or better and been prepped on etiquette and rules
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Joe
    
    Aug 25, 2013 at 7:48 pm
    
    And why is it so important to grow the game… If you think the game is struggling your insane, we need less people showing up eventually searching for their pinnacle ball in the thick grass like its a family heirloom
    
    Reply Report comment
Matt

Aug 24, 2013 at 12:59 pm

I am a pretty descent golfer and I play a course where there are tips (black) back (blue) front (white) and red (women, seniors and if there is a day when I am not feeling like I am going to spank the ball I move up one set to the whites. This is not to speed up the game but to face reality for myself that hey I may not do so good from farther back today.
As for making a requirement for a handicap card, move to another country that is not a free nation. Elitist attitudes like that help to kill golf interest. not one of us came into golf a pro and we should embrace new golfers and help them with their games, help to build confidence and be good sports to one another. This attitude of if you suck then you cannot be on my golf course is sickening to say the least and down right disturbing. I have seen golfers in front of me and behind me that were not very good and I asked if I could play through and did just that and that speed up my game.
Golf is indeed hard, frustrating and time consuming but when I pay my fees and want to enjoy said paid for recreation time do not try to act like you are Tiger Woods, instead have some class and help the game. Just my two cents, from a golfer who at one time sucked lol.

Reply Report comment
Jesse

Aug 24, 2013 at 11:39 am

Im the opposite, I find if I move up I struggle more and don’t enjoy it as much. If I play forward one tee it brings all the trouble within reach of my tee shot which is the way most courses are designed to do. I live at sea level and avg only 260 a drive so i play the tips and am usually short of trouble which allows me to score better, and in turn play faster. I would much rather hit a 5-6 iron from fairway or rough then a 7-8 iron from the bunker, or having to hit a wedge to lay up due to the bunker lip, or dropping cause I reached water.

Reply Report comment
- Larry Sherer
  
  Aug 25, 2013 at 2:09 am
  
  Ever think of hitting a 3 wood or less? I play alot of public courses and a 260 drive puts anyone in short to mid iron range from the blue tees, white tees would puts a wedge in the hands on most 4 pars….only problem I see with a 260 drive is most guys hit it 220 and call it 260. When sky csddie first came out we all saw alot of 300 yard drives become 260…
  
  Reply Report comment
Ronald Montesano

Aug 24, 2013 at 11:12 am

So my take is…this is not controversial at all?

Seriously (mighty ha-ha!) thanks for the input. There is no perfect approach to growing the game, keeping the golfers we have, adding new golfers. Every leisure activity takes away from another, so unless we eliminate competing leisure activities or bring people into the golf industry workforce, the game will struggle to add people (as with every other biz.)

Matt…sorry, I’ll try to improve my writing~
larrybud…you get it~
8thehardway…I will get at those figures and get back to you~
Zeeraq…I love the idea, but it plays out as despotism. Folks in a free society don’t want to be told where to…anything~
J…true words, easier spoken than implemented. Some dudes and chicks want to chill on the course and have no interest in rushing their leisure~
The rest of you…The idea is a psychological one. Get people thinking 135, not 150. Each course can figure it out for itself. The most economic is to move tees up a half to full deck. As with this forum, owners should poll their players/members to solicit advice for a solution.

Reply Report comment
8thehardway

Aug 24, 2013 at 7:05 am

If people go this route…
Sales of new Tight Lies clubs plummet
9-hole Executive courses crack Golf Digest top 100 courses list
95-year-olds get back into golf and play from the 5,000-yard ‘tips’

And why only publish the ‘male touring professionals’ comparison… what clubs do LPGA and Senior pros use for their second shots 85% of the time? Any gold in them nuggets of info?

Reply Report comment
Zeeraq

Aug 24, 2013 at 2:45 am

How about this: have a maximum handicap for each tee box. Before the round, players would have to show a handicap card to validate their playing the back tees. No handicap card, move to the forward tees. It would speed up play and encourage more players to keep a handicap index. Should be interesting to see this implemented at a course as a test run.

Reply Report comment
- larrybud
  
  Aug 24, 2013 at 9:29 am
  
  So what do you do about the 95% of the players who don’t have handicaps? As a course owner, are you going to turn them away?
  
  Sounds like a great plan to grow the game!
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Zeeraq
    
    Aug 25, 2013 at 2:18 am
    
    Oh for the love of… okay genius, let’s look at this little quote from my comment: “No handicap card, move to the forward tees”. Can’t be sarcastic without the basic 1st grade reading skills to back it up, buddy. It’s not a good look.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Ronald Montesano
      
      Aug 25, 2013 at 1:40 pm
      
      It still comes down to enforcing it. If your course charges $50 a round and you turn the foursome away, you lose $200 plus any other sales (beverage cart, pro shop, grill room) you might have made. Ideally, your way is the way.
      
      Reply Report comment
John

Aug 24, 2013 at 1:18 am

this won’t do anything to increase course development nor bring more players to the game. economics has more to do with why growth stopped than 7200 yard courses. fix the economy (put more money in people’s wallets) and folks will spend more time on recreation. hope you guys don’t put too much effort into the shrink every course down to 5500 yards approach.

Reply Report comment
Garry Aynbinder

Aug 24, 2013 at 12:26 am

I don’t see how teeing it forward or rushing people on the course is going to grow or improve the game….no question the game IS growing….the issue with golf is one that transcends the game and is almost a reflection of life and society itself….still to this day golf is expensive and time consuming and most people don’t have much of either to invest to try and get good at this crazy game.

Reply Report comment
- wcavanau
  
  Aug 26, 2013 at 11:48 am
  
  Sorry, but the game isn’t growing. Look at the participation reports and the rounds played reports.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Garry Aynbinder
    
    Aug 27, 2013 at 12:59 am
    
    You need to get out of your box…golf is now in the Olympics…and courses are going up left, right and centre…around the world…just because its not happening in your backyard doesn’t mean its not happening…also more money in the game…and look at the quality of amateur players from around the world…ask guys like Nicklaus, Palmer and Woods if the game is growing….stats…ha..
    
    Reply Report comment
J

Aug 23, 2013 at 11:08 pm

Move up.

Speed up.

Thanks for the innovation.

I’m stunned no one else has thought of those two mysterious concepts.

Bravo.

Reply Report comment
Matt

Aug 23, 2013 at 10:52 pm

You are a horrible writer.

Reply Report comment
- John Smith
  
  Aug 24, 2013 at 8:41 am
  
  Actually, his article is extremely well written. If you don’t like the message or content, say so, or better yet, attempt to articulate your own wisdom on WRX. Would be amusing to measure your confidnce level once exposed to your peers.
  
  Reply Report comment
Jack

Aug 23, 2013 at 10:36 pm

The reason why so many of us love the game drives people away. It’s a hard game to play. Maybe have handicap requirements for courses. If you suck, go play an easier course. Just teeing it closer doesn’t make a par 3 with elevation change and a valley in between any easier for poor players.

Reply Report comment
- Jordan J. Caron
  
  Aug 24, 2013 at 12:47 am
  
  I’m with you here. Most golfers should really stick to executive and 9 hole courses before they step foot in tougher courses. It’s almost like having minor leagues for golf. But not many courses would be thrilled with the idea of turning away paying customers.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Larry Sherer
  
  Aug 25, 2013 at 2:03 am
  
  Your talking about a course going private…public courses need paying customers and 70% minimum tee times filled, so requireing only people that play fairly well will never happen…
  
  Reply Report comment
CLIFF

Aug 23, 2013 at 10:14 pm

The only strategy actually revealed was have markers for 135yrds. How exactly does that that get people hitting 8 irons into the green? Does the article fail to actually describe the Adams Tour Test Approach or does the the ATTA fail to provide any ideas? Honestly im not entirely sure. If this genious idea has something to offer other then dont play from the tips, and play fast im not so sure its going to be a hit.

Reply Report comment
Jeffrey

Aug 23, 2013 at 10:12 pm

His thought was for you to move forward a tee box or two. If the courses put more focus on 135 yards vs. 150, people would be more likely to enjoy the game. My two cents would be this, move the tees up on the weekend one box. There are those morons who have to play from the tips. I can’t remember the last time I saw a guy playing from the tips at my course that had any business being back there. Put the pins in the center of the greens. Lastly, and most importantly, clubs need to space out the tee times, having a foursome tee off on one, the very split second the group in front of them is out a driving range, is a nightmare. There is nothing worse to hurry up and wait.

Reply Report comment
Blanco

Aug 23, 2013 at 9:29 pm

So what is the actual approach/strategy that will have us all hitting more 8 irons into greens? That’s not clear whatsoever.

Reply Report comment
- Jordan J. Caron
  
  Aug 24, 2013 at 12:45 am
  
  I’m left thinking this as well.
  
  Out of all the technological advancements we’ve seen in the last 30 years, this game is still hard as hell. That’s the first thing that deters people from playing and getting hooked.
  
  The second is the time. Regardless of the speed of play a 4 hour round is at the minimum still a 5 hour round by the time you add in travel time and warm up.
  
  Thats why I believe there needs to be more initiative from the executive courses to market themselves better. People think golf is expensive because they only think the 18 hole 7200 + yard championship courses are the only option.
  
  But the 9 hole and executive courses have a huge opportunity. Since most new and casual golfers don’t care about the rules, they should be able to have illegal equipment (larger driver heads & balls that spin less and fly further) and hit to larger cups.
  
  In the end the game needs to be more affordable, easier and less time consuming to gain new golfers. I think the idea above increases the chances that new and casual golfers might play more.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - frank
    
    Aug 25, 2013 at 8:06 pm
    
    The key to getting to the right area of approach is teeing the ball up from the correct tees. I personally tee it up from the whites even though I could easily play from the blues or blacks. By doing so I club down to my 3 wood a lot more. That allows me to hit more fairways to a relative p-7 shot into the green. I put my ego aside a long time ago in order to have more fun and get home before my wife gets mad.
    
    Reply Report comment
- wcavanau
  
  Aug 26, 2013 at 11:46 am
  
  He is an advocate for the “tee it forward” campaign. I’ve read this same logic for moving up to tees that give you 7 and 8 irons into greens instead of 3 and 4 irons.
  
  Reply Report comment
Martin

Aug 23, 2013 at 9:05 pm

Makes a lot of sense.

Reply Report comment
- Jlwctn
  
  Aug 24, 2013 at 11:42 am
  
  It’s all about hitting the green so that you can putt and get on to the next hole. Playing wedges out of the rough and the bunkers slows the game down, especially when it’s done by people who never practice it. 2 or 3 to get close to the green, 2 or 3 to get onto the green and 2 or 3 putts… Recipe for a long day…
  
  Reply Report comment

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

10 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

4 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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