19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

1 month ago

Apr 15, 2024

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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19th Hole

Brandel Chamblee says this is the primary reason why Rory McIlroy hasn’t won a major in 10 years

Published

3 hours ago

May 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

It’s been ten years since Rory McIlroy won his last major championship. When he walked off the green of Valhalla in 2014, many golf fans thought the Northern Irishman would win a handful more by the time 2024 came around. However, McIlroy has come up short in the decade that’s passed since that day.

Related: ‘I thought it was a bot, but it’s just somebody who’s been bought’ – Brandel Chamblee’s stinging assessment of Anthony Kim

While speaking with GolfWRX, Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee gave his opinion as to why McIlroy has come up empty.

“I just think he can’t find a place mentally where he plays his best golf.”

“If you go back and look at what he did from 2011-2014, in that stretch, he led roughly 20% of the rounds he played in major championships. His game has not fallen off, not one bit.

He’s, on paper, pretty much the same player he was. He’s not quite the ball striker he was 2011-2014, not quite, but he’s made up for it with his short game around the greens and on the greens. He’s almost the same player.

“Yet, he’s led just two rounds beginning with the 2015 Masters to the 2024 Masters. I just think that tells you he can’t find the proper way to prepare, the proper way to ease into a round. When he’s needed to play his best, he’s played his worst. When he’s played his worst, he’s then followed it up with his best golf. That’ll tell you that he’s just not in the right place mentally.”

Chamblee did say that he believes his win at Quail Hollow last week may have a positive impact on McIlroy’s chances going forward.

“I said last week, and I believe it, that beginning in the final round on Golf Central that I thought that round could echo. It could influence how he plays not just this week but the rest of this year and going forward. He needed to go out and dominate.”

McIlroy will look to end the major drought this week at Valhalla.

Check out the full interview with Chamblee below:

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19th Hole

‘I thought it was a bot, but it’s just somebody who’s been bought’ – Brandel Chamblee’s stinging assessment of Anthony Kim

Published

5 hours ago

May 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Last Friday, LIV Golf’s Anthony Kim took to his X account to lambaste Golf Channel analyst, Brandel Chamblee.

Related: Brandel Chamblee: Why the format of LIV prevents anyone from judging the talents of the players

Kim said (in reference to Chamblee saying the PGA Tour should now accept a deal with the Saudi PIF) “ur such a pu**y 4 beating on ur chest & basically saying never retreat & hypocritically retreat.”

Chamblee responded, saying that Kim’s post was “inaccurate as some of Phil Mickelson’s drives”.

This is about as inaccurate as a lot of Mickelson’s drives and sadly ironical coming two tweets after you asked for advice on raising your daughter that you would refer to someone as a female body part in a juvenile attempt to denigrate them. It’s clear that you were not offered… https://t.co/LVeSgfZenG

— Brandel Chamblee (@chambleebrandel) May 11, 2024

“This is about as inaccurate as a lot of Mickelson’s drives and sadly ironical coming two tweets after you asked for advice on raising your daughter that you would refer to someone as a female body part in a juvenile attempt to denigrate them. It’s clear that you were not offered disability for your pithy takes. As for your criticism of me saying a deal with the Saudis is the best deal for golf right now, it’s something I’ve said recently, because I don’t think the Saudis are going to turn away from the game and they will continue to be a poaching threat and dilute the product of the PGA Tour. It’s the sad reality of you and your brethren on the LIV tour willingly dealing with a murderous dictator for profit so that he can hide his atrocities, that golf has had to try to figure out how to mitigate the influence of MBS, PIF and LIV in the otherwise philanthropical and merit based world of professional golf. Now why don’t you get back to doing what you formerly did best, which is to wow the world with your talent. I don’t like LIV for a lot of reasons, but I certainly enjoyed your golf and would love to see you playing anything like the semblance of the golfer you used to be.”‘

On Tuesday during an interview with GolfWRX, Chamblee addressed the feud between Kim and himself.

“At first, I thought it was a bot. But it’s not, it was just somebody who’s been bought.

I thought it was juvenile. Social media is a perfect place for juveniles to go behave like children, like the ball pit at McDonalds without adult supervision.”

Chamblee added:

“I’m sure Anthony Kim scrolls and gets positive comments and says ‘yeah, these people get me! I’m doing the right thing’. And it’s just juvenile and sad is what it is.

I feel sorry for him”.

Brandel Chamblee is in the booth this week for the 2024 PGA Championship from Valhalla that will feature 16 LIV pros but no Anthony Kim.

Check out the full interview with Chamblee below:

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Brandel Chamblee: Why the format of LIV prevents anyone from judging the talents of the players

Published

6 hours ago

May 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

While speaking with GolfWRX, Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee explained why he believes the LIV format makes it impossible to determine if a LIV player is playing well.

Describing the format as “stupid”, Chamblee stated

“The format for LIV is just stupid. There’s no other word for it. 54 holes, 54 players start. Willy nilly here and there.

Nobody winning a golf tournament should finish on the third hole on some par three while his closest competitors finish on the 17th hole or the 18th hole.”

When we asked Brandel if LIV players should be in majors, Chamblee indicated that it would be tough to do with no way to truly measure their performance.

“It’s just a laughable concept. There’s no way to judge the talents of these players out there. You look at their data, and again, their data is laughable. It’s very hard to hit 75% of your greens and it looks like everybody on their tour is hitting 75% of greens. Who’s keeping their stats? Who’s doing their data? They haven’t gotten their act together.”

Brandel then compared the current situation to the when the European Tour was at its peak.

“There was a way to judge the European Tour. Guys are playing 72-hole events, tough conditions, windy and they shoot fifteen under par. You think ‘good gosh, is Ian Woosnam really that good?’ He shows up at the Masters, Berhard Langer, Jose Maria, Jose comes over to the world series and wins by 12. You think, ‘these guys are amazing’.”

Chamblee concludes that if LIV players want to get in majors they “need to find a way to qualify”.

“They went to play on a Tour that they knew didn’t qualify for world ranking points. So, if they want to get in majors, they’re going to have to figure out a way to qualify, the way Joaquin Niemann did. Go play some events that we can clearly judge the kind of player that you are.

The format of LIV is just not conducive to judgement.”

16 LIV players will be teeing it up at this week’s PGA Championship. Chamblee will be part of the broadcast team for the event.

Check out the full interview with Chamblee below: