As players and fans gear up for the Masters, the PGA Tour stays in Texas following the Houston Open to play the Valero Texas Open. 

TPC San Antonio is a 7,494-yard par 72 and features Bermudagrass greens.  The main defense of the course is weather. The course can play pretty tough like we saw last year when Corey Conners won at -15 or two years ago when J.J. Spaun won at -13.  If the wind stays dormant, expect the winner to be in the 20-under range.

There are 140 golfers in the field this week. The field is absolutely loaded this week, especially considering it’s the week before The Masters. Some notable players in the field include Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Brian Harman and Matt Fitzpatrick. 

Past Winners at TPC San Antonio

• 2023: Corey Conners (-15)
• 2022: J.J. Spaun (-13)
• 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
• 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
• 2017: Kevin Chappel (-12)
• 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For TPC San Antonio

Let’s take a look at five key metrics at TPC San Antonio to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is the best measure of current form. With plenty on the line this week, golfers will be looking to either punch a ticket to Augusta or round into great form heading into the Masters, so this metric should tell us a pretty good story about where a player is heading to San Antonio.

Total SG: Approach per round Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Keith Mitchell (+0.92)
2. Chandler Phillips (+0.76) 
3. Corey Conners (+0.76) 
4. Austin Eckroat (0.72)
5. Ryan Moore (0.67)

2. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Off-the-Tee is statistically more important at TPC San Antonio than Tour average. Last year, Corey Conners ranked 8th in SG: OTT for the week. Spaun ranked 11th in SG: OTT in 2022. Prior to Jordan Spieth’s victory in 2021, the previous four winners of the Valero Texas Open had ranked eighth, fourth, ninth and fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee for the week. Hitting the ball long and straight will be a major factor this week.

SG: OTT per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Kevin Dougherty (+0.96)
2. Cameron Champ (+0.95)
3. Rory McIlroy (+0.88)
4. Alejandro Tosti (+0.73)
5. Kevin Yu (+0.70)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking

Ball-striking combines off-the-tee and approach. Golfers coming into the week striking it well from tee-to-green will be in a great spot to compete this week.

The rough can be penal at times around TPC San Antonio, so driving accuracy is important. At over 7,400 yards, the course isn’t short so the driving distance aspect of this stat will be a factor, as well.

SG: BS per round Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Keith Mitchell (+1.58) 
2. Corey Conners (+1.24)
3. Kevin Yu (+1.07)
4. Akshay Bhatia (+1.02)
5. Rico Hoey (+0.97)

4. Course History

This statistic will tell us which golfers have thrived throughout their career at the Valero Texas Open. 

Strokes Gained: Total per round over past 36 rounds at TPC San Antonio (minimum 8 rounds):

1. Jordan Spieth (+2.63)
2. Corey Conners (+2.33)
3. Charley Hoffman (+1.91)
4. Brandt Snedeker (+1.83) 
5. Aaron Baddeley (+1.70) 

5. Strokes Gained: Short Game

I am valuing off the tee and approach above short game this week, but players will have to have some around-the-green game to compete this week. This stat incorporates both around the green and putting. 

Strokes Gained: Short Game per round Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Aaron Baddeley (+1.47)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+1.42)
3. Brendon Todd (+1.17)
4. Maverick McNealy (+1.12)
5. Martin Laird (+1.05)

The Valero Texas Open Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG:BS (20%), SG: OTT (25%), Course History (14%) and SG: SG (14%)

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Corey Conners
3. Billy Horschel
4. Keith Mitchell
5. Aaron Rai
6. Doug Ghim
7. Ludvig Aberg
8. Byeong Hun An
9. Akshay Bhatia
10. Ryan Moore

2024 Valero Texas Open Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1600, (BetRivers)

Expectations were sky high for Ludvig Aberg entering 2024. The Swede is one of the most heralded prospects in golf’s recent history, and for good reason. After sitting atop the rankings in the World Amateur Golf Rankings for a prolonged period, the 24-year-old burst onto the professional scene last year, winning the Omega European Masters in September as well as the RSM Classic in November. He was also a standout in Ryder Cup during Europe’s victory at Marco Simone in Rome.

This season, Aberg has been playing solid golf, but is yet to break through for a victory. He finished 2nd in the weather-shortened 54-hole event at Pebble Beach and in his most recent start finished in 8th place while gaining 6.6 strokes on approach, which was his best iron week of the year.

Aberg’s game seems to be rounding into form just in time for the Masters, and he should be well-suited for a tough test at TPC San Antonio. The former Texas Tech standout is a great wind player and knows what it takes to play good golf in the state of Texas. The plurality of approach shots on the course come from 150-200 yards, and Ludvig leads the field in proximity from that yardage range in his past 24 rounds.

Aberg’s ability to hit it long and straight will be a major advantage this week, and I expect the future superstar to get his biggest PGA Tour win to date in San Antonio.

Billy Horschel +4500 (FanDuel)

Billy Horschel is rounding into peak form and looks incredibly dangerous heading into this week’s Valero Texas Open. The 37-year-old finished 9th at the Valspar Championship and backed it up with a tied for 7th place finish at last week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open. At Memorial Park, Horschel gained strokes across the board in all major stat categories.

Billy has three top-5 finishes at TPC San Antonio including a 3rd in 2013 and 2014, and a 4th in 2016. The former Florida Gator hasn’t played the event since 2019 but has a perfect skill set and game to win at the course.

When in contention, Horschel is one of the best closers on Tour and already has plenty of big wins in his career including victories at Murifield Village and Wentworth. He also took down Scottie Scheffler at the Dell Matchplay event Austin Country Club in Texas.

When Horschel is in form, he’s a fierce competitor who can go toe-to-toe with the best players on Tour on a Sunday.

K.H. Lee +150000 (FanDuel)

K.H. Lee’s yeah has been up and down, but he’s shown flashes in the past month or so of what’s made him successful on the PGA Tour thus far. Lee finished in a tie for 4th at the Cognizant Classic and for 9th at the Valspar Championship. He then finished in a tie for 31st at last week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open.

Most of Lee’s success lately has come from his around the green game and putting. He ranks 19th in his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Short Game. However, Lee has gained strokes off the tee and ball striking in each of his past seven rounds. There seem to be clear signs that his game is starting to come around.

Lee has played TPC San Antonio well in the past. In 2019 he finished T14 and in 2021 he finished T21 before missing the cut in 2022.

The South Korean has already won twice in the state of Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2021 and 2022. the 32-year-old is a high ceiling player who has the capability of winning a PGA Tour event if he gets into contention on Sunday.

Charley Hoffman +20000 (FanDuel)

Charley Hoffman turned back the clocks earlier this season at one of his favorite courses at TPC Scottsdale. The veteran will now head to a course that he’s had even more success at, TPC San Antonio. Since 2006, Charley has twelve (!) top-15 finishes at the course, including a win in 2016. His recent history is excellent as well. He had back-to-back runner up finishes in 2019 and 2020. Hoffman ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at the course and is third in Strokes Gained: Total per round in his past 36 rounds here.

Since his playoff loss at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Hoffman’s play has understandably dropped off. I believe that the fact he was able to even contend this season shows that he is still worth a bet at a course he’s had so much success at in the past. Despite being 47 years old, Hoffman has still gained strokes on the field in driving distance in four of his past five starts and isn’t a short hitter by any means.

Hoffman missed the cut in his latest start at the Valspar, but his approach numbers were strong once again as he gained 3.2 strokes on approach in his two rounds. If he can get the irons dialed in at TPC San Antonio, his familiarity with the course can get him into contention for the second time this season.

Ryan Moore +22000 (FanDuel)

After struggling with a back injury over the last few years, Ryan Moore is finally rounding back into the form that made him one of the most reliable iron players on Tour over the course of his career.

Moore finished in a tie for 5th at the Valspar Championship and backed it up with a solid performance last week at Memorial Park, where he finished 31st at the Texas Children’s Houston Open on a course that really shouldn’t suit his game all that well. He ranked 8th in the field for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, the 43-year-old ranks

Moore has played well throughout his career at TPC San Antonio. He finished 7th in 2018 and 3rd in 2019 before his back injuries started to derail his career. Now that he seems to be healthy, he has the capability of contending at one of his most successful Tour stops over the years.

Last week the course may have been a bit long for Moore, but TPC San Antonio is the type of course that Moore will be able to pick apart with his short to mid-irons and get back in the winner’s circle after almost eight years without a win on Tour.