Opinion & Analysis

The Campaign Starts Here: Bring Back The Skins Game!

Published

11 years ago

Mar 29, 2013

Here we are just weeks away from the biggest golf event of the year and I find myself somehow obsessed with a defunct, out-of-date, made-for-TV event that took place every year on Thanksgiving weekend.

Yes, even though the Skins Game meant Holiday shopping, Christmas trees and ski vacation planning to many of us, it also drove new viewers to golf on TV while showcasing a unique format that couldn’t be seen anywhere else. So, why even bring up the Skins Game now? Three reasons: viewership, ratings and at one point in time, it was simply so much fun.

The Masters seems to have become the one and only golf event that routinely draws in new viewers seemingly out of the woodwork who don’t normally watch golf on TV (with the US Open finishing in distant second). And viewership is what golf needs in order to attract future players to keep the game growing and thriving.

For a time in the 80s and early 90s, there was something fresh and fun about the Skins Game. In fact, the ratings for the early Skins were second only to the Masters, and I’m fairly certain that golf could use that kind of ratings boost.

If we can somehow bring the Skins Game back, albeit with some changes to make it fresh and fun again, it would give golf a nice shot in the arm during the doldrums of golf viewing that is typically experienced after the season concludes.

I figured if I am going to bring the Skins Game back, I better start right away in order to give the powers-that-be the time they need to pull it off. I know that come Halloween, if I don’t see it looming on a network schedule somewhere, I may be forced to send off a strongly-worded e-mail to someone.

THE SKINS GAME — REFRESHER COURSE 101

Jack Nicklaus playfully tosses his club during the Skins Game

For those of you who are not familiar with the Skins Game, here’s a refresher:

It was a made-for-TV event shown annually over two days of the Thanksgiving weekend that ran from 1983-2008.
It featured an intriguing mix of four golfers comprised of the biggest names in golf. The foursome would consist of players drawn from the PGA Tour, the then-named “Senior Tour,” a legend (or two) and typically one of the younger, noteworthy pros on Tour. On some years you would get a young Tiger Woods alongside Fred Couples, Raymond Floyd and Greg Norman. Or the draw could include Lee Trevino, Jack Nicklaus, Fred Couples and Davis Love III. This format resulted in a huge boost of exposure to players on the “Senior Tour” so this was a great chance for one of the legends to show the young bucks a thing or two while simultaneously giving exposure to the Senior Tour and provide them with a well-needed boost.
The players would compete in a hole-by-hole match with whoever shot the lowest score on that hole of getting “the Skin” (the pot) for that hole. If two or more players tied the hole (halved), no skin was won, and all of the players would proceed to the next hole with all four again eligible to win the skin (aka “carryover” or “carries”) of both holes. The carries would grow as more holes were “halved.”
At the end, the winner would be presented with one of those larger-than-life, Publisher’s Clearinghouse-type checks that were handwritten and would be signature to the event. It was always fun to see if someone would clean the slate and win them all sending the other three home with “bupkis.” Most years, at least one of the players would walk away empty-handed which had an air of cruelty to their efforts. Such is life in the game of golf.

THE SKINS GAME — WHAT HAPPENED?

The participants for the final Skins Game in 2008 (left to right: Stephen Ames, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, and Brett Wetterich)

The participants for the final Skins Game in 2008, from left Stephen Ames, Fred Couples, Zach Johnson and Brett Wetterich)

When I first started watching the Skins Game, I am pretty sure that it was the only golf I would watch on TV with the Masters as the possible, lone exception. I wasn’t a golfer back then, but there was something about the Skins Game where it had this laid-back vibe, while the money was absolutely front-and-center. It was like a “get-rich-quick” scheme played out with drivers and irons on perfectly sunny days in the Southern California desert. And, man, back in the day it seemed like each hole was being played for a lot of money. Okay, it ‘s still is a lot of money to me, but as far as golf purses go, the old amounts are comparatively pedestrian. This issue may be the very crux of the problem with the Skins Game.

What happened to the Skins Game anyway? Did it still exist somewhere and I just kept missing it? Nope; it was cancelled after 2008 when the format grew stale, the players were second-tier and the TV landscape had become over-saturated with Thanksgiving football that essentially took over the airwaves for the holiday weekend.

The biggest issue that spelled doom for the Skins Game was all about the money: The top-tier pros who were the reason for early-Skins rating success eventually simply made too much money to even bother with an event that didn’t guarantee them to walk away with anything. Plus, throw in the fact that it was during the Thanksgiving weekend, and many pros would rather be home with their families. These are real obstacles, but I think with the right mix of format, money and exposure, there is a place for this event on Black Friday, leaving the rest of the Thanksgiving weekend all clear for football.

THE SKINS GAME — WHAT WE NEED TO DO TO BRING IT BACK

The Big Three at the Skins Game

Here are my list demands which must be met in order to make the Skins Game relevant, enjoyable and hugely successful. I have created this list in order of importance:

1. The field includes four noteworthy, top-tier players (see below).

2. It has to include no less than two of the cream-of-the crop PGA players including a two of the following: Tiger, Rory, Phil and/or (believe it or not) Bubba.

3. Next, it has to include one of the following either flashy or established PGA stars: Fowler, Poulter, Mahan, Bradley, Westwood or GMac.

4. Finally, it can have one “wildcard” pick from the Champions Tour, LPGA, PGA or someone that has legendary status that can compete without embarrassment. This can be any of the names above or a wildcard that is both widely-known and that adds to the intrigue: Freddie, Michelle Wie, Greg Norman, Sergio, Gary Player (Why not? Have him tee from the “golds”), or even Anika. The wild card has to be a personality who transcends mainstream golf somehow.

5. All competitors and caddies are “miked” throughout the event and are assigned a dedicated camera to each player so that all aspects of the event are covered from head to toe.

6. The Skins Game should still televised over the Thanksgiving holiday but instead of two days (preferable), current-day logistics may dictate the need to have it all take place just on Black Friday (day after Thanksgiving). This will appeal to those of us who prefer not to brave the madness at the malls.

7. The purse must be huge overall: We need to start with $1.8 million purse total broken out as $100,000 per hole — at the very least. There is no escalation of hole values as the event draws on; the holes are all worth equal amounts (*see below for discussion of prize money). There may need to be a “secret sponsor’s player fee” paid to the participants in order to assure their attendance. I would prefer not to know about this payout as I prefer the fable where a pro goes home empty-handed. This amount should be split between the players and the charities of their choice or they can decide to donate all of their winnings to the charity. This should provide for excellent exposure to their charities and part of the TV coverage should include segments devoted to the charities.

8. If there is a tie/carryover on No. 18, whichever the two (or more) that tied on 18 go to a sudden death playoff; winner take all. No ties, no carries.

THE SKINS GAME — OBSTACLES TO OVERCOME

The biggest obstacle is setting the purses that are enough to draw out the huge names in golf while somehow not alienating the viewing public who could turn on the spectacle by thinking that it is just “the rich getting richer.” The reality is that the old purses from the Skins Game past, although riches beyond many of our dreams to many of us working stiffs, are not significant to the all-important “cream-of-the-crop” list mentioned above. The answer to this quandary of balancing large purses to attract the top names while not making them look greedy lies somewhere in having these massive purses committed partially (or substantially) to the charities of choice to the players. As mentioned, the spotlight to the charities could be huge to them while providing goodwill from the competitors themselves showing their allegiance to these organizations.

The second big obstacle lies in attracting this top talent on a holiday weekend, especially when the top talent already have more money than they can spend in a lifetime. I do know know the “ins and outs” of making pros clear their calendars for an event, so this may be like to trying to force LeBron James into the Slam Dunk contest. But, I would hope that the benefit to their respective charities combined with the massive exposure to the event would hopefully be enough to attract the big names.

THE SKINS GAME — WHAT MAKES IT SO FUN AND UNIQUE?

Fred Funk dons a dress after being out-driven by Anika

Fred Funk dons a skirt after being out-driven by Anika.

My main reason that this is a special event is due to the unbelievable access that the nature of the event grants to the viewers. For nearly every golf broadcast, we as viewers bounce from leader to leader on hole to hole where we see a variety of putts, drives, irons, etc. However, we don’t get a great chance to really follow players from shot to shot like we can as a member of the gallery. Just once a year, I would really enjoy hearing the banter between players, caddies, and competitors in a shot-by-shot format. It’s a different viewing experience but overall fun and an eye-opening glimpse into the pro mindset. Plus, the pros themselves seemed to genuinely enjoy the event. They would all get into the act and let their hair down a bit giving us a rare glimpse into what they are like away from glaring lights of heated competition. But, make no mistake about it: Every pro wanted to win the most skins and none ever wanted to get shut out.

In order for this to work, the players and caddies all need to be miked up as they have done in the past. This allows us to get into their discussions when planning shots, strategies, and execution. This format exposes us to live each shot with them as they try to figure out a way to win the hole outright. In fact, I recall that this was the only event where I really ever saw real conversations between players and their caddies from shot to shot and hole to hole. I also remember enjoying the exchanges between the players themselves. I liked the “good shot,” “nice play” and “how’s the family doing” type of stuff that all of us golfers do when we are out playing.

I remember watching when guys would get shut-out and thinking how hard it would be for the losing pro to see someone like Norman walk away with $800,000, while Freddie scooped up a paltry $40,000, but the loser got nothing but bills for the trip. That’s the breaks in the Skins Game. A guy like Norman could do nothing all day, watch Tiger and Jack halve hole after hole, then he sticks it close on 17 and walks away with everything. There’s nothing quite like massive reward for minimum effort.

Give me my Tiger TV! Let’s throw Rory into the Shark Tank. Heck, while we are at it, let’s see The Shark himself make a return! How about Anika? She still has game, I bet. Throw in a Bubba and sprinkle in a marketing-machine like a Rickie or a Poulter and we have ourselves some good turkey TV! So, I’m looking for your tweets, golf fans! I promise that this would work. It’s been gone long enough and it’s high-time for the Skins to come back to a TV near you. Let’s get the Skins Game back!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

1 day ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

5 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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