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The best bets for the 2023 Mexico Open

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Let’s not mess about here. Defending champion and pre-event favourite Jon Rahm is probably a gimme this week in Mexico.

With wide, welcoming fairways and holding paspalum greens, the Vidanta Vallarta course offers no particular challenge to anyone above average on the tour, and yet clearly has its bias. At 7400-yards and a par of 71, the Greg Norman track has been used just once before at this level, and it was the obvious factor in driving distance that contributed most to the leaderboard.

The Spaniard led home the driving distance stats last season with six of the next 10 players ranking in the top 12 for bombness. Is that a word? It should be. In newer parlance, go down to 15th placed Chez Reavie to find a player posting negative off-the-tee figures. If you ain’t hitting it, don’t come in.

As for the world number one, he came to Mexico ’22 having slipped from the very top to third place, his top-three finishes in Hawaii and at Torrey Pines not enough to hold off the charging Scottie Scheffler. This time, he arrives having won four events in nine starts, including the Tournament of Champions, American Express, Genesis and, two weeks ago, his second major. Even when entitled to be mentally exhausted, a week later he raised himself up the board at Harbour Town from 92nd after day one, to a never-nearer 15th by check-time.

If that is not enough, the 28-year-old has posted 19 top-10 rankings for driving distance in just 29 starts since the start of 2022, and 12 top-five placings for greens-in-regulation.

If Rahm wants to win, he does it at his leisure. It’s not my job to say lump on a short-priced fav, but there is no blame attached if you make him the standout of the year so far and act as such.

At 5/2-ish, however, he is approaching Tiger Woods territory and that should allow us to eke out a run from a trio of players for whom this course should suit.

At world number 16, Tony Finau‘s claims are clear and he may well be that one that offers a stonking each-way bet to nothing at around 15/2.

 

After 10 leaderboard finishes in majors, Finau was never going to sit on just a lone victory at Puerto Rico, a course with obvious correlation to Vedanta and with a history of long-hitting winners. That said, even the most loyal of fans could not have seen his four victories in under 40 starts.

Those wins include the 2021 Northern Trust where he beat Cam Smith in a play-off with Rahm in third, and a host of major contenders further behind. Flying finishes then saw the 33-year-old finish runner-up to Rahm here, and to Rory McIlroy in Canada, before beating lesser field by three shots at the 3M, Patrick Cantlay et al by five at the Rocket Mortgage and a Houston Open field containing Sheffler and Sam Burns by an easy four strokes last November.

Whilst he hasn’t set the golf world alight in 10 starts this year, Big Tone has made all nine cuts in strokeplay events with six top-10 finishes reminding us all he still has it. He leads the tour in overall approach play, significantly ranking 11th for irons from 175 to 200 yards and is in the top-five for total strokes gained.

Finau will enjoy the open spaces of this event, as he has done when eighth and 16th at Mayakoba, as well as bringing good memories after an improving set of numbers here last year – 71/68/66/63.

Like the favourite, Finau did not have to turn up at the Heritage last time – bizarrely ‘elevated’ considering its position in the calendar (a week after Augusta) – an effort that is easily forgiven.

Look around him in the market. Wyndham Clark is playing excellent golf but has thrown away several chances to break his maiden, including at the Corales in March and last week’s pairs event, the Zurich Classic; Patrick Rodgers owes his fans a few quid as another long-standing non-winner; Alex Noren really should have won on the PGA Tour by now but still lacks, whilst Maverick McNealy is another 35/1 or under that needs to find a bit more when in contention.

Finau is easily the most convincing opposition to the jolly, and I’ll back him up with a pair that may be on the way back to their best.

A single victory on each of the European Tour and Korn Ferry Tour are all that Byeong Hun An has to show for 12 years as a paid golfer, but the hints are there that something will happen soon.

Whilst more famous for that tribute song, the 31-year-old US Amateur champion looked as if both injury and loss of form would keep him from kicking-on from a six stroke victory at the flagship BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, and it surely pleased most that he was able to win again after nearly seven years.

The Florida resident has shown enough since re-qualifying for the big stage in September last season, opening with an always-prominent fourth place at the Fortinet Championship before improving on a pair of mid-field finishes to be 17th in Bermuda.

2023 has seen the affable Korean-born player improve from outside the world’s top 200 to a current 144th after making all eight of his 72-hole strokeplay weekends, efforts that include a fast-finishing 12th at the Sony, 21st at Honda (top-10 going into Sunday) and sixth place in Texas, all events that are wind significant.

Benny then followed up his solid showing at San Antonio with a quiet 13th place finish alongside SH Kim at last week’s pairs event, certainly enough to think he should be contending on a course that will reward his current standing of eighth for distance off the tee, and will be more forgiving to his more wayward drives.

Having been seventh at the higher-class Valspar Championship and then winning the Corales, it is surprising that odds of over 70/1 are available about Matt Wallace, a player that won 10 events from 2016 to 2018.

 

With a profile that hardly speaks of consistency, the Englishman can find form from nowhere, as he did in 2021, when missing two cuts before 18th at Bay Hill and recording figures of mc/mc/mc before a top-15 at Shriners and fourth at the Zozo.

There was similarity to his play in 2022, missing eight cuts and a best of mid-60 finish before fifth and 18th on the DP World Tour and finding form at both the 3M and Rocket Mortgage in-between several missed weekends.

Although the 33-year-old has made just six cuts from 10 starts this year, he started with a pair of top-20s at Abu Dhabi and Dubai before being inside the top 13 through three rounds of the Honda, and then produced season-best results at Copperhead and Dominican Republic.

Being an opposite event meant Wallace needed a similar performance in Texas to qualify for the Masters, but ultimately he faded after an opening 69 to finish just inside the top 30.

The biggest improvement to the world number 115 has been in distance off the tee. In his four most recently completed PGA Tour starts, Wallace averages around 8th for driving distance, whilst his last three events (Valspar, Corales and Texas) see him average 15th for greens-in-regulation.

When asked by Matt Kuchar about his driving prowess, Wallace replied, “So I said it was the combination of driver, the confidence, a little bit different in club dynamics for myself.”

Perfectly happy in the wind and back being confident about his game, he can shake off missed cuts at Harbour Town and at last week’s Zurich Classic to go on another solid run.

Recommended Bets:

  • Tony Finau – WIN
  • Byeung Hun An – WIN/TOP-5
  • Matt Wallace – WIN/TOP-5
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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