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2022 Nedbank Golf Challenge: Betting Picks & Selections

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Previously known as the Million Dollar Challenge (who knows what that is worth today?) the Gary Player Country Club hosts the 40th running of its invitational event, flitting between an initial 12 man field to the modern day 70 or thereabouts.

Given the conditions of entry, it is no surprise to read the catalogue of top class champions, ranging from Seve to Faldo, from Sergio to Westwood, and all those in-between. This year, the event is a chance for those on the cusp of the DP World top-50 to confirm their place in next week’s seasonal decider, the DP World Tour Championship, though it’s hard to make a solid case for players currently outside of the top-70, Wil Besseling and Nicolai Von Dellingshausen, to launch above superior rivals is a question I’ll leave to you.

A solid tee-to-green game is vital around this long, 7500-odd yard track, and whilst the yardage may prompt the view that distance is all, of the top-five in driving distance from 2017 to 2019, only Joost Luiten finished on the front page of the leaderboard. Smack it around, sure, but avoid the deep rough, and ensure either approaches are solid or the scrambling is solid enough to avoid bogies. Any less and it’s a fairly early goodnight and no hope of winning a tough tournament at around 12-under.

Previous champions arrive in form – the last five have had a win or top finish/es in their previous ten starts – so both favourites, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Smith, have to have appeal.

 

It’s tough to split them despite the 55 places between them in the official world rankings, but the slightly younger man gives the impression he’s only just begun and gets the nod.

The forecast of rain will make fairway finding even more of a necessity and, whilst the man from Southport will relish that factor, it instantly points us to the chances of Smith, who will celebrate his 30th birthday the day before the first round, and that after the most impressive win of his career to date.

It’s not as if his win in Portugal was hard to predict – he had been a conquering force on the Jamega/Algarve Tour before making his way from EuroPro, to Challenge and European level, almost dominating from tee to green, but rarely able to capitalize after a short game that just wouldn’t behave. It was always only a matter of time, and with two of his previous five victories (as a professional) occurring in the last week of October….this time next year, Rodders.

Numbers don’t lie, and in his last 14 completed starts, Smith has only once ranked outside of the top-20 for ‘off-the-tee’, finished within the top-20 for approaches on eight occasions and led the field twice for tee-to-green with six further top-10 rankings. These are stunning figures, including at Le Golf National and Valderrama, so despite poor course figures, I have no doubt he is ready to go again after a week off.

There will be reason why punters would believe Smith is too short at 14/1 but in a season that has recently thrown up statistical fits in the shape of Adrian Otaegui at Valders, Kurt Kitayama (runner-up to Rory McIlroy at Congaree) and Eddie Pepperell, flying, even without that one big finish, it’s tough to ignore the stats.

I’m no fan of lists, but:

  • *1st off-the-tee
  • *9th in approaches
  • *3rd tee-to-green
  • *4th for scrambling
  • *9th for birdies
  • *5th in bogies
  • *2nd par-five performance

and now 17th and first for putting at Valderrama and Dom Pedro.

In a limited field where only ten or so can be seriously considered as winners, Jordan is ready to get close to the world’s top echelon and into the majors, his best of those being 9th at the 2017 US PGA, two weeks after his win in Germany.

The list of winners here reads very much like a who’s-who of links specialists, and therefore the afore-mentioned Pepperell must have an obvious chance. I just wonder if his lack of length off the tee will put too much pressure on a thus-far excellent iron game, certainly against the likes of the top few, whilst Antoine Rozner was also strongly considered but has performed nothing other than average in this part of the world, and it’s tough to see him saving those crucial pars, the Frenchman’s short stick currently being worthy of being classed x-rated and several leagues below the brilliance of the wins at Qatar and Dubai.

Instead, at ten points bigger, take a chance that this is a going week for Victor Perez.

 

Rozner’s compatriot has turned into a very hard-to-read player, but in a field of 60-odd, his very best form stands the closest scrutiny.

Perez’ win at the Dunhill Links in 2019 came via beating a notably wind-positive field – Matt Southgate, Tommy Fleetwood, Tom Lewis and Jordan Smith behind – whilst the form of his top placings also stacks up as tremendously relevant this week.

Two shots behind Lee Westwood in Abu Dhabi in 2020, he was joined in second place by 2019 Nedbank champion Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Louis Oosthuizen, the latter with a host of top-10 finishes at the Gary Player, whilst two-time champion Garcia joined 2012 champ Martin Kaymer in 8th.

Later that season, his runner-up finish at Wentworth behind two-time Dunhill Links Tyrrell Hatton at Wentworth came courtesy of an outstanding approach game, the result linking nicely with Danny Willett, Alex Noren and Seve, all winners at Virginia Water and in Sun City.

Form since has been sporadic, and his win at the Dutch Open was overdue, but it came via another set of stunning tee-to-green figures (13-plus shots over the field), and he carried that on to the European Open at the huge Green Eagle course.

I’m okay with a closing 23rd at the shortened Czech Masters and third at the Italian Open behind Bob McIntyre and Fitzpatrick, whilst he was inside the top-10 going into Sunday at Le Golf National, a venue that Nedbank winners Retief Goosen, Kaymer, Fleetwood and Noren have won at.

Ignore Portugal – Thomas Bjorn and Noren both missed the cut in their previous outings – as a birdie-fest would not have suited, and concentrate on his seasonal top-10 ranking for approaches and tee-to-green. Ranking 7th for ball-striking over the last three months gives an indication of the strength of his current game and he just fits well on that list of winners and placed players.

It was tough to pick between the last pair with ‘ticks’ in all four of my personal list of ‘attributes required’, so I’ll play both, particularly in the top-20 market, where one winner is a profit, two is a ‘Billy’.

With both Yannik Paul and Marcel Schneider, we are taking two of the hottest ball-strikers on the tour, both inside the top-10 for events over the past 12 weeks.

 

The first of the named Germans, Paul’s first ‘proper’ event at this level was a top-10 at the rain-effected Joburg Open – previously won by Branden Grace and George Coetzee – whilst his runner-up in Belgium, top-20s at Green Eagle, the Barbasol and Barracuda championships, and book-ends of 68 and 66 in Italy point to a player consistent enough in his form.

In fifth place going into payday in France, he matched that eighth place finish when closing in at the Spanish Open.

The 28-year-old was telegraphing a big one, and after a very respectable 21st at Valderrama, finally came good in Mallorca in what was admittedly a fairly weak contest.

Players can do no more than win, though, and with positive figures throughout the season for all driving aspects, he can again match his figures of top-10 for approach, 13th for tee-to-green and greens-in-reg. He will need to, as the short game needs a touch of work, but having won on the Spanish island off a minus putting figure, he knows what needs working on and that something shouldn’t be needed in huge amounts this week.

Almost four years his elder, Schneider is hitting the ball equally well as anyone on tour.

Flitting between the main tour and the Challenge Tour, the german should not need to step down a level if he carries on what seems a long-term wave of excellent ball-striking.

Long yet accurate off the tee seems a good start for the test this week, whilst 19th for tee-to-green will give him plenty of chances on the greens, especially on the crucial par-fours, for which he ranks third over the last 12 weeks.

We always see these quality iron players as strugglers on the greens, but with the emphasis on keeping dropped shots off the card, his decent scrambling stats will help steady any missed birdie chances.

Form-wise he looks very similar to Smith, and even his compatriot, before their respective victories, and his figures since the Catalunya Championship in May are very impressive.

In 19 outings including Girona, the 32-year-old has posted six top-10s, five top-20 finishes and a pair of top-30s.

In second place going into the last day of the three-round Czech Masters (an event won twice by Thomas Pieters, who surely would have disputed favouritism this week)  the immediate seventh place in Crans shows an ability to play the altitude courses, whilst his back record shows top-10 finishes at courses as diverse as Green Eagle and the low-scoring Trophee Hassan at Golf du Palais Royal.

Averaging around plus-six for tee-to-green in his last five starts, and off an excellent closing top-10 in Portugal, a result despite, not because of, his flat stick, Scheider can cement his place inside the top-50 and an invitation to Dubai.

Recommended Bets:

Jordan Smith WIN 

Victor Perez WIN/TOP-5

Yannik Paul Top-10 

Yannik Paul Top-20 

Marcel Schneider Top-10 

Marcel Schneider Top-20 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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