Opinion & Analysis

2022 Portugal Masters: Betting Picks & Selections

Published

2 years ago

Oct 25, 2022

The DP World Tour arrives in Vilamoura for the 16th consecutive year and, has been the case for several years, it is host to more than just the eventual champion.

As in Mallorca last weekend, the pressure is mounting on those around 117th on the DP World rankings, with only those on and above that number certain to keep their playing privileges. And it can be awfully tight.

Take Darius Van Driel, at the cut before the Mallorca Golf Open. Sitting pretty with 18 holes to go, a five-over 76 saw him drop just one place, but enough to lose the one hand he had on his ‘card’ and meaning he is under the gun to perform this week.

On the other side, Jazz Janewattananond’s 17th hole birdie may well have been the difference between going into this week at 116, a rise of 11 places in a space of days.

Even those safe from Q-school have their nerves tested, with only the top-60 having the chance to play the Nedbank Challenge next week, and the final 50 going on to the lucrative DP World Tour Championship starting on the 17th November.

For some, they will be thankful that the Dom Pedro track isn’t too taxing a task, the open nature of the resort course lending itself to an average winning score over the past five years of around 20-under.

They will have to putt well, but aggressive play will give a host of chances on a course that can call on the defence of the wind and little else.

Looking at past winners, names such as Padraig Harrington, Tom Lewis (twice), George Coetzee, Lucas Bjerregaard, Shane Lowry and even Alvaro Quiros point heavily to those with form in Qatar, Dubai, Sicily, Morocco and Dunhill Links. Point them out, let them go, and see who rolls the rock the best.

Nicolai Hojgaard 20/1 Win

Twins are the theme of the DP World Tour this year.

Not only do we have the two Danes, now winners of five tournaments between them at this level, but now Yannik Paul becomes the first of the German duo to win on any of the major tours, in doing so beating Nicolai and Rasmus by six and eight shots, respectively.

Despite going the wrong way on Sunday, Rasmus, alongside fellow withdrawal Thomas Pieters, has done enough to be at the finale, leaving his brother to prove the best bet of the week and launch himself up from a current 67th.

Whilst Nic’s second victory, at Ras Al Khaimah, came after a pair of missed-cuts, his dominating maiden win in Italy came after a T21 at links track Hillside, and 17th at the very relevant Czech Masters, when he lay in the top-10 going into payday.

Spookily (it is Halloween after all), current form is 37th at Valderrama – a course that should not suit at all but could be said to be linksy tricky at a push – followed by last weekend’s 16th, when he was again on the front page of the leaderboard going into payday.

Top-10 off-the-tee last week sits nicely with a putting average in the top-five, a perfect combination for a challenge that seems very similar to that which faced him at the Marco Simone Club, where he led off the tee and in tee-to-green, as he did when winning in the UAE from Jordan Smith in 24-under.

The 21-year-old was fourth in last season’s finale and will rightly want to join his brother in the select field.

When runner-up last year Nicolai was fifth off the tee, 12th in approaches, second in tee-to-green and top-15 for putting. It all looks as if it is lining up nicely for a similar attack, and one that could be rewarded.

Tom Lewis 45/1 Win/Top-5/Top-10

I’ll have to mention Eddie Pepperell as he is actually top of the list for the numbers formula, and I hope that he doesn’t almost nick it like last week’s listing number one -Kurt Kitayama – did!

For me, he is too occupied with making waves against the LIV tour on Twitter, so, after plenty of thought, he is just left out in favour of Tom Lewis, who calls himself after such excellent course form and some sneaky recent figures.

Portugal figures repeat an awful lot, with many regular contenders (including Pepperell) posting two, three or more top-10 finishes. Nobody is quite like 2020 winner George Coetzee, who won here on the bridle, and whose Dom Pedro record is a win, five top-10s, and a pair of top-20 finishes in just 12 starts, but the Englishman is the only player to have won twice here so probably trumps the lot, especially having won here on just his third ever start as a professional.

After looking as if he would go to the very top, the 31-year-old probably hasn’t helped himself over the last couple of years, flitting between the Korn Ferry and PGA Tours alongside his home events though it is noticeable just which tournaments he showed up in through 2019 and 2020.

Whilst he won the 2019 KFT Tour Championship by five shots, the best of the rest includes ninth at Abu Dhabi, third at Saudi, 11th at The Open, fifth at the Dunhill Links, eighth here, and a tied-13th and 6th through the same final two events as he would have faced here. In fact, sitting in 152nd on the rankings, he probably needs something of a miracle to even keep his card, but if he is going to show something, it will be here.

The Florida resident is very hard to read – note that runner-up to Justin Thomas at St. Jude 2020 – but has shown with a 13th at the shortened Czech event and top-16s in Denmark and Italy that he will compete when conditions are right.

Over the last three months, Lewis ranks top-30 for ball-striking for the tour, 16th in greens-in-regulation, and 35th for scrambling, whilst last week in Mallorca, he was top-15 in tee-to-green and led the around-the-green stats.

Often wild from the tee-box, the 2011 and 2018 champion will once again be at home at a favoured course, and if there is anyone that can show there is something behind the maxim “Horses for Courses,” it should be the former junior star.

Jeff Winther Win/Top-10/Top-20

This section of the market is tough to split.

All of Dale Whitnell, Janewattananond and Lukas Nemecz caught the eye last week, but even though the Austrian has exemption after his victory in Mallorca last year, he will be glad of launching himself up inside the top-90 after an excellent defence of his title and his best finish of the year so far.

Despite being beaten a long way at the 2016 Tshwane Open 2016, Winther’s runner-up to Charl Schwartzel reads very well given Coetzee has won that event twice, whilst top-10s in Abu, Qatar, and in the Czech Republic point to what should be suitability to this track.

Sadly, the 34-year-old hasn’t clicked at the Dom Pedro missing the cut three times in four starts, the last of those in 2019, two years before his breakthrough at this level.

There is nothing spectacular about the Austrian’s play. He is steady, accurate and putts very well, finding over four shots on the greens in Denmark, seven in France, the same at Valderrama and nearly three last week. Those last two might suggest he needs it tougher, but he shot two rounds of 62 when recording a 15-under total at Santa Ponsa last year and conditions should be fairly similar this week.

In a section of the market that finds it hard to win, Winther comes off four rounds in the 60s last week, pointing to him being close to his best, and that should be enough to land a top-10 at least.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

5 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

5 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

1 week ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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