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Opinion & Analysis

2022 Valero Texas Open: Best prop bets

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A pleasant week for the column at the Corales Puntacana, with Cameron Percy landing the top-20 wager with comfort and an added +950 bet for top-10. At halfway, it looked like G-Mac might provide even more cheer, but a back problem led to an awful weekend and put paid to that hope.

We move on to the Valero Open, an event that recently took over from the Houston Open as the Augusta warm-up and is now rewarded with Rory McIlroy’s first appearance since 2013.

With bigger fish to fry in a week’s time, and some players needing to win here to gain entry down Magnolia Lane, there should be some value props.

Alongside Matt Vincenzi’s outright preview, here are this week’s top side bets.

Corey Conners Top 10 +225

Corey Conners to beat Rory McIlroy +130

Ok, I’ll admit, the Canadian is my one-and-done for this week in Texas, and these two look the best ways of being with him outside of the win market.

Recent previous winners Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell, and Charley Hoffman have all found form at the RSM Classic at coastal Sea Island. They have excellent figures around Bay Hill, both correlations making perfect sense with events providing unpredictable winds and emphasis on approach play.

Whilst this course demands a solid tee-to-green game, many of the top five players of recent times have ranked outside of the top-40 for off-the-tee figures, making their strong ball-striking figures via approach stats, and with Conners we have a perfect match.

Four from four at the RSM, he has a best of 10th place and a couple of rounds in the low 60s to make him of interest at all wind-affected tracks, whilst an 11th and second at Bay Hill also carry much clout.

The softer conditions of the November Masters suited and the similar conditions he found when winning around here, but his best-ever major effort (T8) came via the faster conditions of Augusta just 12 months ago, so there are no ‘one-trick pony’ concerns.

The 30-year-old was the winner of this event on his second event start in 2019, an effort that is sandwiched by a 14th and 26th place, whilst he can boast enough relative and current form to make him a huge play this week.

Currently 21st in ball-striking for the tour over the last three months, that period has also seen him lead the tee-to-green starts at Bay Hill when top 10 going into the final round of an elongated tournament. He ranks eighth in this field for tee-to-green over the last two months, and it’s all just too hard to resist.

In 2021, Conners recorded a 3rd at Bay Hill, 7th at Sawgrass and 14th here before that Masters challenge and a fourth place at the RBC Heritage. He keeps form and looks to be coming right after an 11th place on his first outing of the year in Hawaii, with his current form going the right way.

After another 11th place, this time at Bay Hill, three weeks ago, he followed that with a quality display last weekend that saw him become the first Canadian to make the semi-finals of the World Match Play, proving that keeping it in-play gets results.

Do that here and not only will he be a strong challenger for the title but also give event favourite McIlroy, a run.

I’m just not sure what Rory is doing here. He admits this is, ”just a way for me to get my mind away, get out of thinking so much about the future and focus a little more on the present.”

It sounds like he is here to get away from Augusta hype and the inevitable circus that comes with it rather than be determined to win here.

Rarely one to be with when the wind blows; he will need to be a lot more accurate with his driver to get the ball around here. Whilst accessible, anyone getting the ball in the trees off the tee is in trouble. Ask Kevin Na…

Adam Hadwin Top 5 +750

Adam Hadwin Top 10 +410

Looks like we are on the Canadian train this week as 34-year-old Hadwin joins his compatriot atop the selections.

Missing the cut on debut in 2015 is of no worry, and two outings since suggest he is getting to grips with San Antonio, recording a 72nd place finish (inside the top 40 at halfway) and, after a four-year hiatus, a top-25 last season.

That seems a good enough base to build on, but he is also one of the most in-form golfers in the field and maybe a little under-rated against the likes of Rory, Jordan et al.

Sixth place at the Shriners reads well enough (see Laird below), and in four of his last five outings, Hadwin has recorded a 16th at Pebble, 26th in Pheonix (top-10 through the first three rounds), a closing ninth place at Sawgrass and latterly an always-present seventh place at Copperhead, an event he led after the first round.

Back form works nicely too. Back up this season’s effort at Summerlin with a T4 in 2019 and add top-10 finishes at Bay Hill and the Desert Classic, whilst a bronze medal at the 2018 CareerBuilder reads very well give he split two winners of this event, Landry and Chappell.

Approach play has been top grade over the past few events, ranking between seventh and 22nd, a performance that sees him rank sixth in tee-to-green for this field over the last few weeks.

Hadwin has been quietly fancied for a few events this term, and this looks like his chance to give something back to his loyal backers.

Martin Laird Top 20 +350

Martin Laird Top 40 +140

Windy, desert-like, Martin Laird.

There is nothing hidden with the 39-year-old Scot, and I’m not worried about form with him either. When conditions suit, Laird is always worth a look.

Twice winner in Nevada, once at the API at Bay Hill and conqueror of Rory McIlroy in 2013, Laird just turns up without warning. In an event that has seen Landry, Conners and Chappell win with little notice, he can overcome recent figures to land a couple of props.

When victorious here, Laird came off four missed cuts from six starts and a best of T34 at the API, whilst although he waited seven years to win the Shriners for the second time, that also came off a rough run of figures, a best of T28 after a pair of 65th place finishes and a missed-cut.

Best finishes over the last six months have suitably been at his favourite event at Las Vegas and a T14 in Arizona, both giving further evidence to his love of certain conditions, whilst he ranks 12th in this field for tee-to-green over the last eight weeks.

The Scot has missed just one weekend from eight tries at San Antonio, recording a pair of top-20 and two top-40 finishes in his last four starts.

Get with him to make another.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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