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The Northern Trust 2021 betting tips and selections

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Welcome to a new installment of betting tips from staff writer and host of the Pick the Pup Golf Show, Andy Lack.

The PGA Tour travels to Jersey City, New Jersey, this week for the Northern Trust, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. After Louis Oosthuizen’s withdrawal, 124 of the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be in attendance this week at Liberty National, a course we have seen only four times before in professional competition.

Liberty National is a par 70, measuring 7,353 yards on the scorecard with bentgrass greens and bentgrass fairways. The Robert Cupp and Tom Kite design has hosted this tournament in 2009, 2013, and 2019, and it was also the host course for the 2017 Presidents Cup. Liberty National is a course that has proven to cater to a balanced tee-to-green skill-set, and regardless of venue, this is nearly always a tournament won by a premier player.

This column is coming off a heartbreaking loss last week. Not only did we have Russell Henley, who lead the tournament for 69 holes, but we also had Kevin Streelman at an even bigger number, who held a share of the lead on the back nine and bogeyed the final hole to finish one shot outside of the playoff. With that being said, the thought process was sound, and we feel primed for a rebound. Let’s dig into my outright selections.

The Northern Trust 2021 betting tips and selections

Dustin Johnson (18/1, William Hill)

I was very close to selecting Brooks Koepka at a slightly bigger number, and I may live to regret that decision, but let’s roll with DJ here. The two-time major winner has won this tournament three separate times, and while they all came at different courses than Liberty National, Johnson did dominate Liberty in the 2017 Presidents Cup, ending the competition as the only player on either team to secure four points.

While I am aware that Johnson’s last six months have been underwhelming at best, this is always time of year when he tends to turn it on. Statistically, he is certainly trending in the right direction. In his last start, the 24-time PGA Tour winner gained strokes in all four major categories en route to a 10th-place finish. His +3.2 strokes on approach was his best iron week since February. I expect Johnson to be a massive factor down the stretch, and a win this week at one of his favorite tournaments on a familiar course would be a welcome start.

Rory McIlroy (26/1, William Hill)

This is my favorite bet of the week, and the most confident I have been in a player in quite some time. I believe that Rory McIlroy will win this week, and here’s the short-hand version of why. The four-time major champion gained 12.5 strokes ball-striking in Memphis, good for the best ball-striking week he’s had in over two years. Looking back at some of McIlroy’s results from 2014, 2017, and 2019, when he was at the peak of his powers, it was because of ball-striking numbers like that.

On a more narrative angle, something flipped for McIlroy at the Olympics. Judging from his quotes both before and after the Olympics, representing his country and competing on such a big stage clearly reignited something in him. He was right in the mix at the Olympics, and he followed that performance up with the best ball-striking week he’s had in two years in Memphis. McIlroy feels inspired again, and when a player is a hitting the ball that well, wins tend to follow extremely soon.

Justin Thomas (27/1, FanDuel)

I had no real plans to bet Justin Thomas this week until I saw his number. I’ll harken back to Justin Thomas’ last win, The Players Championship. The 14-time PGA Tour winner drifted to 20/1, and sure enough, he claimed victory at TPC Sawgrass. Comparing how he was performing before the PLAYERS to how he is playing coming into this tournament, there’s an argument to be made that there are more positives with his game right now than there was prior to his PLAYERS win. And yet, we are getting him at an even bigger number, in a field of 124 instead of 156, on a golf course that he’s been excellent on.

I’ve been critical of Thomas recently, and this is the first time I’m looking in his direction in months, yet I finally saw what I was looking for last week in Memphis. After struggling with his irons for over a month, Thomas gained 6.1 strokes on approach at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The irons are definitively back, and he’s just about due for a spike putting week. I love the number and I love the ceiling. This was an easy decision.

Keegan Bradley (140/1, FanDuel)

I could have easily capped my card off with those three elite players, but at such massive numbers, these next two players deserve at least some consideration. While this was a very small bet for me compared to the three selections above, I love Keegan Bradley this week. Yes, I do believe that this tournament is going to be won by a top-end player, the Vermont native does feel like the most worthy party crasher.

Three of Bradley’s four career wins have come at a major, a WGC, and a FedEx Cup playoff event. Those all came on difficult golf courses that place a high emphasis on an elite tee-to-green game. The former PGA Championship winner continues to hit the ball beautifully, and he possesses an extremely underrated short game as well. Liberty National has shown us that it’s possible to get by here with excellent ball-striking and mediocre putting, so I will gladly take my chances on Keegan Bradley at a giant number.

Carlos Ortiz (200/1, DraftKings)

Hear me out on this one. This number is just too big for a player of Ortiz’s caliber, even in this field. While nothing about Liberty National screams Carlos Ortiz to me, the former Houston Open winner is really solid across the board from a statistical standpoint and possesses no glaring weaknesses. And even so, I do believe the Guadalajara native still has elite upside. Ortiz has shown us he is capable of gaining over nine strokes on approach on any given week, and there aren’t a lot of other players, especially in this price range, that even have that in their bag.

The University of North Texas product is coming off a week in Memphis where he gained over five strokes ball-striking, which is not the same as gaining over five strokes ball-striking at the Wyndham. Ortiz has displayed the ball-striking chops to compete in elite fields, and he has now gained off the tee in three straight measured starts, and on approach in five straight measured starts. I will gladly take my chances with the upside.

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Five Things We Learned: Thursday at the PGA Championship

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It was a year ago that we the north, found ourselves with toes and fingers crossed. The Oak Hill PGA Championship of 2023 finished on schedule, despite the iffiness of weather in upstate New York. It’s 75 degrees today across the Niagara Frontier, which makes it two out of three (2022 was the same way) for sultry, unseasonal weather.

Louisville is, let’s be honest, a much better bet for a May PGA Championship, and Valhalla is an exciting venue for the year’s second major championship on the men’s circuit. Brooks Koepka came in as the defending champion, and Rory McIlroy arrived as the last golfer to win a major at the Nicklaus-designed course. That was a decade ago, and lord, have things changed in the world and golf.

Day one at Valhalla offered walk-in eagles, buckets of birdies, and potential for a record-low, winner’s score. We’ll get right to the meat of the matter, with five things that we learned. After all, if you can make par from the muck, anything’s possible in the land of the horses.

1. X marks this spot

Xander Schauffele went head to head last Sunday with Rory McIlroy, at least on the practice green. By the end of the round, Rors had won for a fourth time at Charlotte, while the X Man sat scratching his head, wondering what went wrong. Fortunately for us, Xander didn’t sulk.

The San Diego State alumnus absolutely torched Jack’s track with 62. Four birdies on the front nine, were followed by five more on the inward side. Schauffele never looked as if bogey was a consideration, and he might have gone even lower. Despite winning the Covid-delayed Gold medal at the Japan Olympics (I consider it a major, btdubs) Schauffele continues to chase an initial men’s major, and the validation that it brings. If 62 doesn’t get you over the hump, who knows what will.

2. Scottie starts strong? Aye.

Last month, Mr. Scheffler won a second green jacket at Augusta National. Last year in Rochester, Mr. Scheffler tied for second in this event. Mr. Scheffler began play today with a walk-in eagle, a one-hop affair that never looked as if it might go anywhere but to its home. Scheffler had a few rough holes, but that’s to be expected from a new dad. Each time he made bogey, he bounced back with birdie, so he has that short memory that winners crave. Surprisingly, Scheffler failed to manage one last birdie at the reachable 18th. Perhaps that miss will motivate him in round two.

3. LIV Check-In

It’s good to check in on the departed from time to time, to ensure that the fellows formerly known as PGA Tour members are doing well. It’s safe to say that some of them can still play. Defending champion Brooks Koepka posted 67 on the day, He had an eagle and three birdies on the day, with only a stumble at the 17th. He’s tied for 7th. Bryson DeChambeau made an eagle of his own, but also had a bogey, at the 12th hole. He cohabits eleventh position with Cameron Smith, who ALSO had a bogey on his card. They are one shot behind Koepka, and a fistful more behind the leader.

4. Sahith and Tony at Schauffele’s heels

Both Finau and Theegala represent a special sort of athletic golfer. Their power and their charisma blend to draw golf fans to their groups. Let’s be honest, too, and say that they don’t look like the traditional professional golfer. As much as Tiger Woods did in the 1990s, they have the power to bring greater diversity to the sport.

In terms of their play today, well, only Xander was better. Finau had a clean card, with six birdies and twelve pars. Theegala had seven birdies, ten pars, and one bogey. Each combined power and finesse to insert themselves squarely in contention, ahead of round two. How will they, and Xander as well, manage the afternoon putting surface on Friday? That’s the great unknown!

5. All those other guys are here!

Rory, Tom Kim, Collin, and Viktor are all at minus-three or lower. Valhalla may not be a traditional golf course, but it is the type of course that the world’s best play well. McIlroy currently sits at minus-five, tied with Robert MacIntyre, Kim, and three others in fourth position.  Maverick McNealy finished fast to reach the same figure, as did Tom Hoge. Morikawa closed with birdie to join the sextet at five below. Both Scheffler and Morikawa finished their rounds late on Thursday, meaning they should see smoother greens on Friday morning. If someone is a betting sould, wiser wagers could not be placed on better names than those two, two-time, major champions. Rory will tee off in Friday’s afternoon wave but, hey, he’s Rory, and he won going away last week at Quail Hollow, a course not unlike Valhalla.

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Morning 9: Tiger 2025 Ryder Cup talks continue | Rory: Tour in a worse place with Dunne’s resignation

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the PGA Championship gets underway from iconic Valhalla.

1. Waugh: 2025 Ryder Cup talks continue with Tiger

Golf Channel’s Ryan Lavner…”PGA of America CEO Seth Waugh said Wednesday that the organization continues to have conversations with Tiger Woods about captaining the U.S. Ryder Cup team in 2025 and there remains no firm deadline to get their pick in place for Bethpage Black.”

  • “A day earlier, Woods told reporters here at the PGA Championship that he is undecided about taking on the role next year…”
  • “He doesn’t do anything that he’s not fully committed to,” Waugh said, “and we totally respect that.”
  • “Still, the PGA’s decision to hold off on naming an American captain for the September 2025 matches is a significant departure – at least three months late – from the past five captains.”
Full piece.

2. Rory: Tour in a worse place with Dunne’s resignation

Golf Channel’s Rex Hoggard…”McIlroy, who has become an outspoken proponent of a deal with PIF, was denied a spot on the board last week but was named to the “transaction subcommittee,” which will spearhead the day-to-day negotiations. But the loss of Dunne will be a blow to those talks, the world No. 2 said.”

  • “Honestly I think it’s a huge loss for the PGA Tour if they are trying to get this deal done with the PIF and trying to unify the game,” McIlroy said. “Jimmy was basically the relationship, the sort of conduit between the PGA Tour and PIF.
  • “It’s been really unfortunate that he has not been involved for the last few months, and I think part of the reason that everything is stalling at the minute is because of that.”
Full piece.

3. Brandel on AK’s criticism: I thought it was a LIV bot

Our Matt Vincenzi…”On Tuesday during an interview with GolfWRX, Chamblee addressed the feud between Kim and himself.”

  • “At first, I thought it was a bot. But it’s not, it was just somebody who’s been bought.
  • “I thought it was juvenile. Social media is a perfect place for juveniles to go behave like children, like the ball pit at McDonalds without adult supervision. I’m sure Anthony Kim scrolls and gets positive comments and says ‘yeah, these people get me! I’m doing the right thing’. And it’s just juvenile and sad is what it is. I feel sorry for him.”
Full piece.

4. Aberg (knee) ready for PGA

Cameron Morfit for PGATour.com…”Ludvig Åberg said lingering knee soreness that kept him out of the Wells Fargo Championship last week will not be an issue at this week’s PGA Championship.”

  • “The world No. 6 Åberg, who finished second at the Masters Tournament in his very first major start last month, allowed that he is wearing a brace as a precautionary measure.”
  • “Knee’s good,” said Åberg, 24. “It was more of a safety concern last week that I didn’t play. I’m consulting with my doctors, and I trust them with everything that I have, so it’s not bothering me at all this week, and I look forward to playing. I’m wearing a brace just for safety reasons, but it’s nothing that’s bothering me. I’m focusing on the golf.”
Full piece.

5. Masters employee pleads guilty to stealing millions in memorabilia

Sean Leahy for Yahoo Sports…”A former employee of Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia pleaded guilty on Wednesday to transporting millions of dollars worth of stolen Masters memorabilia and historic items, including a green jacket belonging to Arnold Palmer.”

  • “According to federal prosecutors, 39-year-old Richard Globensky made around $5 million over the course of a decade from selling items stolen from the Augusta National warehouse, which were then transported to another party in Florida.”
  • “Globensky pleaded guilty to one count of transporting stolen goods across state lines. As part of his plea, he must hand the government a $1.5 million check this week.”
Full piece.

6. Chamblee on why Rory hasn’t won a major

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking with GolfWRX, Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee gave his opinion as to why McIlroy has come up empty.”

  • “I just think he can’t find a place mentally where he plays his best golf.”
  • “If you go back and look at what he did from 2011-2014, in that stretch, he led roughly 20% of the rounds he played in major championships. His game has not fallen off, not one bit.
  • “He’s, on paper, pretty much the same player he was. He’s not quite the ball striker he was 2011-2014, not quite, but he’s made up for it with his short game around the greens and on the greens. He’s almost the same player.”
  • “Yet, he’s led just two rounds beginning with the 2015 Masters to the 2024 Masters. I just think that tells you he can’t find the proper way to prepare, the proper way to ease into a round. When he’s needed to play his best, he’s played his worst. When he’s played his worst, he’s then followed it up with his best golf. That’ll tell you that he’s just not in the right place mentally.”
Full piece.

7. Why Scottie’s caddie will have a fill-in Saturday

Paul Hodowanic for PGATour.com…”Scottie Scheffler will have a fill-in caddie on the bag for Saturday’s third round of the PGA Championship.”

  • “Ted Scott, Scheffler’s full-time caddie, will miss Saturday’s round at Valhalla Golf Club to attend his daughter’s high school graduation. Scott will leave Friday night after caddying the first two rounds and return late Saturday to loop the final round.”
  • “That’s something we talked about from the beginning of our relationship was family always comes first,” Scheffler said during his pre-tournament press conference on Tuesday. “It’s the same thing for me as it is for my caddie. It was a pretty easy decision. He told me at the beginning of this year that that was the date.”
Full piece.

8. Chamblee: LIV format makes it impossible to judge player talent

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking with GolfWRX, Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee explained why he believes the LIV format makes it impossible to determine if a LIV player is playing well.”

  • “Describing the format as “stupid”, Chamblee stated
  • “The format for LIV is just stupid. There’s no other word for it. 54 holes, 54 players start. Willy nilly here and there.
  • “Nobody winning a golf tournament should finish on the third hole on some par three while his closest competitors finish on the 17th hole or the 18th hole.”
  • “When we asked Brandel if LIV players should be in majors, Chamblee indicated that it would be tough to do with no way to truly measure their performance.
  • “It’s just a laughable concept. There’s no way to judge the talents of these players out there. You look at their data, and again, their data is laughable. It’s very hard to hit 75% of your greens and it looks like everybody on their tour is hitting 75% of greens. Who’s keeping their stats? Who’s doing their data? They haven’t gotten their act together.”
Full piece.

9. Photos from the 2024 PGA Championship

  • Check out all of our galleries from the year’s second major!
Full piece.
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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 PGA Championship

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GolfWRX is on site this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, for the PGA Championship.

While we see fewer equipment changes and new gear seeding at major championships, we get a look at custom gear and looks into the bags of players we rarely see, which is just as exciting. In the case of the PGA Championship, this means a look at the gear some of the PGA Professionals who qualified for the tournament will be gaming, and LIV players, such as Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed.

Check out links to all our albums from Valhalla below and check back throughout the week as we continue to update.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

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