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Betting The Players Championship: Inside the mind of a professional gambler

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Golf betting is blowing up. Look no further than the PGA Tour’s recent partnership with the Action Network for evidence of that fact.

With the calendar reshuffle, The Players Championship now kicks off the meat of the golf season. The most serious golf bettors have been placing wagers for months of the 2020 season already, so to get the more casual wagerers among us ready for the big betting events of the year, we’re talking with a professional gambler.

We’ve talked with Dave of Top Market Sports, the only sports advisory site in the world that’s owned and operated by real Wall Street traders and analysts, on two occasions, and he always has plenty of betting wisdom to impart.

Check out our conversation below.

Q. What are some challenges that you face as a serious golf bettor?

Betting on golf for a living is like trying to hit a moving target. It’s very niche, so it’s worlds different from betting on something like the NFL. The hardest part becomes finding fair places to bet. Here’s a good example. There are a bunch of major bookmaking operations that are now capping golf futures at 50/1. Meaning that 50/1 is the deepest they’ll price a guy to win a tournament. They just don’t want the liability given how thin the market is. Like this week, Chez Reavie is being offered for 50/1 at some places. That is the definition of outrageous. I bet him last night at 200/1 offshore.

You can’t be playing carnival games with these people. Not if you want to turn a meaningful profit doing this. So, I guess that’s my biggest challenge lately, being forced to become a global citizen in order to have proper jurisdiction and access to bookmakers across the globe. It’s funny, people assume you can bet on anything under the sun here in Vegas. In reality, the golf betting scene in this town is pretty dead. There’s one new shop attempting to breathe some life into it, but the jury is still out. As a result, the lion’s share of bets I’m making on The Players Championship this week will be placed offshore.

Q. You seem to never bet on the big marquee names like Rory McIlroy to win. Why?

A. Betting single-digit futures is bankroll suicide. Single-digit futures are anyone with shorter odds than 10/1. In fact, I’m actually making a conscious effort this season to not touch anything lower than 25/1.

The sports betting market, as a whole, underestimates the possibility of an unexpected event happening. For example, the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup last year after being priced at 250/1 midway through the season. Leicester City won the Premier League as a 5000/1 long shot a few years ago. Five thousand to one! My point is that in sports, the unexpected happens all of the time. And in golf, this phenomenon is amplified even more.

If you’re feeling strongly about a player at the top of the board like McIlroy, just bet him in matchups. Then all you have to do is beat one guy, not a full field of 143 killers. Pretty much everyone in this Players Championship field is capable of tasting God Mode on any given week. You want to bet against an army of 143 with a 6/1 shot? Be my guest, but you’re in the wrong business.

Q. Speaking of matchups, how do you split the action between matchups and futures? And how did your selections fare last week at Bay Hill?

A. Matchups are the meat and potatoes. You have to be able to sustain yourself on matchups while waiting to smash a gravy train future. About 75 percent of my play each week goes into matchups, and the remaining quarter gets pounded into deep value outrights.

Last week we played McNealy (100/1), DeChambeau (25/1), Scheffler (70/1), and Cabrera Bello (100/1) in the outright market. Despite whiffing, it was encouraging to see both DeChambeau and Scheffler in semi-contention for all 72 holes.

Our huge matchup play at Bay Hill was Harris English -120 over Jason Kokrak. This was one of those spots where clients were advised to hammer until they couldn’t hammer it anymore. It really was stealing! I beat a Costa Rican outfit for a Cadillac on that one. Fading Kokrak has been a windfall these past couple years. The wannabe-wiseguy-leather-jacket crowd can’t get over him for some reason. We also cashed DeChambeau +112 over Fleetwood and Scheffler -125 over Niemann. The only match we lost was Howell -111 over Cauley. On the whole, it was a satisfactory week.

Q. Nice work! How about a pick for this week?

A. The matchups I’m going to reserve for my client base, but here’s another future. I already mentioned Chez Reavie at 200/1. Shane Lowry at 90/1 is also worth something. Sentiment has really reached a boiling point on him. His extended liquor-soaked British Open celebrations are a cute narrative, but couldn’t be further from the truth at this point.

He’s been striking it beautifully for months, but has been held back by some trouble on the greens. After a workmanlike top 25 at Honda, he took Bay Hill off for a hard reset of the putter. Sometimes, a putting shake-up can pay immediate and shocking dividends. People inside the ropes tell me he’s 100 percent golf-focused, locked down practicing with the flatstick in recent days, preparing for this week’s championship.

Shane now fancies himself a big event player, as he should. That British Open bink seems like a lifetime ago, but in reality it’s only been seven months. The win proved he’s capable of being a rockstar threat on the biggest stage. And with TPC Sawgrass being as pressure-packed and high stakes as it gets, this gives him a mental edge on the majority of the field. Knowing he’s done it before is the type of intangible Pokemon power card that could come in very handy if he’s able to slide into contention down the stretch on Sunday.

 

Check out Top Market Sports for golf (and all other major sport) packages, and follow TMS on Instagram.

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GolfWRX Editor-in-Chief

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Barry

    Mar 12, 2020 at 1:01 am

    Explain to me again how the PGA tour is a non profit?

  2. kevin

    Mar 11, 2020 at 9:19 am

    i’d be curious if the pros would consider it a better bet to bet a top 5, top, 10, or top 20 vs trying to pick winners. you can find great odds and have a player play great and not win. picking winners seems like an unrealistic crap shoot, especially doing it picking guys with longer odds.

  3. rob

    Mar 11, 2020 at 1:41 am

    really?
    i always asked myself „why are people giving a shank on these„.
    now i gave also one. i love statistics, like the guys from 15th club, but dude, the homepage is from 2018 and they talking about PGA Championship in Bellvere

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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