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Tour Rundown: Hatton holds, Campillo, nearly the Big Eerie, Rocha
It’s not the week before a major, but it is the week before the Players Championship. Bay Hill played as much like TPC will play as it could. In fact, Sawgrass is going to have to show me something, to play any tougher. Firms greens, speedy surfaces, thick rough (not a fan) and wind (can’t prepare that) made the O-Town course as difficult as one could encounter. For the 2nd consecutive week, a well-decorated Englishman led after 54 holes. It wasn’t Tommy Fleetwood this time, but Tyrrell Hatton. Would he hold on? How would compatriots fare in Qatar, Mexico, and California? Fortunately for you, we run it all down this week in Tour Rundown for March 8th, 2020.
PGA Tour: Hatton holds lead and claims Bay Hill
For some Englishmen victory on the US PGA tour will always be an unsolvable mystery. Colin Montgomerie, Ken Brown and Mark James never won. Among the current lot, Tommy Fleetwood and Matthew Fitzpatrick remain among the uncrowned. Nick Faldo won 9 times, including 2 major titles. Luke Donald (5 ), Paul Casey (3) and Lee Westwood (2) were among the ones who solved, in part, the mystery. This week, Tyrrell Hatton left the former group and earned membership in the latter. He did so in the grittiest manner. If #GolfTwitter wasn’t waiting for him to implode in spectacular eruption, it sat marveling at his ability to handle the most trying of conditions. Hatton entered round four with a 2-shot lead, but Bay Hill was not the simple test of prior years.
Hatton’s inward half consisted of 8 pars … and a double bogey. He drove left off the tee, into the water. Four swings later, he thought the game was over. Imagine his relief, looking at the leader board at 13, upon discovering he still had the lead. It was not his first brush with disaster; 2 bogeys in the first four holes brought him to the brink. 2 birdies as the front 9 closed, drew him back from the precipice. Still, there were challengers. Marc Leishmen, playing with Hatton, came home in minus-one, edging to 3-under par, ultimately claiming 2nd place alone. When every shot mattered, Hatton hit knives on 17 tee, 18 tee, and 18 fairway, to set manageable pars and victory in motion.
Writer’s Note: When you have to hit a perfect shot, “between the rocks and the sand,” as the commentators gleefully spurted, the hole set-up is bad. It may not have been the goal of the preparation committee, but it was the result at the 18th hole. This was Florida nightmare golf at its best; some love it and some disdain it. Perhaps there’s no other way to defend a course like Bay Hill. Having said that, it’s difficult to recall the last non-major event that had golfers absolutely turned in knots. It shouldn’t be an every-week thing, but much like the stadium hole at Scottsdale, from time to time, it’s warranted.
European Tour: Campillo and Qatar begin with <k>
Jorge Campillo has lost more than he has won, on the European Tour. He has won twice, though, on the big tour. David Drysdale has been at the professional game for 25 years, and has 2 Challenge Tour wins to his credit. For the longest time on Sunday, it was uncertain if any of the golfers in contention would hit the proper shots required for victory. Campillo made a bogey at 16, and a double at 17, ending on -13. Drysdale made bogey at 15, also dropping to the number of misfortune. Also in the mix was Denmark’s Jeff Winther, but he had 3 bogeys against 0 birdies on the back 9, to finish 1 agonizing stroke out of the playoff.
As if a switch were flipped, both Campillo and Drysdale played like world-beaters in extra time. They matched birdies at the 18th, then did it again on the 2nd go-round. Two more trips along the closing trace returned 4 pars, so it was back to the tee for a 5th attempt. This time through, Campillo knocked in a distant birdie putt, and Drysdale missed from closer in. The Spaniard had his 2nd tour victory, while the Scotsman had improved on his previous-best finish (twice a runner-up in regulation.)
PGA Tour Champions: Els gets by with a little help from his friends
Ernie Els’ arrival on the senior circuit was heralded. He nearly won his maiden event, falling to the pride of Malaga, Miguel Angel Jimenez, in extra holes. Two events later, the Big Easy finished on 16-under par, in Newport Beach, California. The South African found himself in amid a blend of tested and untested doyens: Scott McCarron and Fred Couples were nipping at his heels, as were Monday-qualifier David Morland IV and Ken Duke. Nowhere on the elder circuit is the gap greater, than the par-five holes. On this day, Els’ pursuers did him the greatest of favors: they made pars and bogeys on the birdie holes. Glen Day was on fire when he reached the 18th tee. In his pocket were 4 consecutive birdies. He made bogey on the piece-of-cake closer. That’s piece of cake for birdie, not par. And he made bogey. Dropped to -14. Still finished 2nd alone. McCarron portrayed the worst wedge player in the game, at least from a distance. His approach irons were routinely off by yards, not feet, and thus were his birdie opportunities limited. He shot 69 and dropped 3 spots, to 5th place. Neither Morland nor Duke broke 70, and each dropped away, toward 10th spot. Couples’ performance was also bewildering. He had 6 birdies on the day, but none over the closing third of the round. He matched Day at -14, but rued the missed opportunities.
Els’ round was nearly the Big Eerie. He birdied 1 and 18. He also bogeyed 8 and 11. See where we’re going? He had birdies on 3 and 6, and also on 12 and 15. Those don’t match up as precisely, but still, pretty spooky. All of it was good enough to separate him from the chasers, and bring him a well-earned, debut victory on the next stage.
PGA Tour Latinoamerica: Rocha waves Brazilian flag in Mexico
If the Sahara of birdies that was Bay Hill, had you wanting for redder numbers, the fans in Mazatlan cannot empathize. The golfers on PGA Tour LA went berzerk at the Estrella del Mar resort. on the west coast of Mexico. Despite opening with 65-67, Brazil’s Alexandre Rocha would not assume the lead until a 2nd 65, in round 3, brought him to 19-under par. Even then, he stood alongside Argentina’s Alejandro Tosti and Rowin Caron of the Netherlands. Raul Pereda and Alvaro Ortiz Becerra, of the host nation, each shot 64 in round 4, to surge up the board, to -2 and -26, respectively. Nice rounds, but can they compare with a 62? That’s what Rocha returned on day four. The man from Sao Paulo began his afternoon with 5 consecutive birdies, then added a 6th at the 9th, to turn in 30. He signed for 5 more chirps on the inward half, to offset an inexplicable bogey on the 14th. Caron had 66 on day four, but fell to a 3rd-place tie with Pereda. Tosti had 67, good for 5th place alone.
PGA Tour Latinoamerica will take two weeks off, allowing players time to reach the tip of South America. Three events will be held in Argentina, then a quick stop in Chile, before reaching the Caribbean in May.
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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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