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Tour Rundown: Phoenix Open to Webb in playoff, G-Mac, Quigley Qonquest
We know that the big game, that bowl of commercials, America’s pagan holiday, got your attention last night. That’s fine. On Monday morning, however, we want you running down the weekend of great golf with us. The European, PGA, Korn Ferry and Champions tours were in action, from the middle east to the Panama canal. We had a playoff, a comeback, a rebirth, and a debut. In other words, just another week in the exciting world of professional golf. Let’s run!
PGA Tour: Phoenix Open to Webb in playoff
The enigma that is Tony Finau, became more enigmatic in Scottsdale. On Saturday, the USA international player and one-time winner, parlayed a 62 into a one-shot advantage. On his heels was the Players and US Open champion of the 2010s, Webb Simpson. Midway through round four, golfers like Adam Long, Hudson Swafford and Nate Lashley (early pursuers) had faded away. Justin Thomas was immersed in a 65 that would bring him to -14, and a tie for 3rd with Bubba Watson and Lashley. Simpson and Finau created a 2-man duel, and when Simpson dunked his tee ball on the 15th hole, Finau took a 2-shot lead to the 17th tee. Doing what most golfers would call proper, the Tongan Terror closed with pars and preserved his -17 total. Thing was, Simpson drove the 17th green and two-putted for birdie, then dropped a 20-feet putt for 3 at 18, and back they went to the 18th tee. Simpson made birdie again, and had a title for 2020.
On Saturday, Brandell Chamblee took to Twitter to prop Finau up. In his words, “At any minute, he could go off. He is more on the cusp of breaking out that (sic) any other player in golf.” Chamblee’s words proved prophetic: Finau could but didn’t. He is still on the cusp. And this makes his constant selection as an International-Team captain’s choice all the more baffling. Jim Furyk picked him in 2018 for Ryder Cup, and nada. Tiger picked him in 2019 for Prez Cup, and bupkus. Time is running out for Finau to learn to close the deal.
Korn Ferry Tour: Panama Championship heads to Hattiesburg, in the hands of Davis
It’s a known truth that the Triple-A tour is where the top tour pros learn to win. They often learn how to win, by losing. Chase Wright had a lead on Saturday evening in Panama, thanks to a round of 62. By Sunday’s end, he had played 13 more shots than the day before, and dropped 14 spots on the leader board. Left to battle thing out were Davis Riley, who signed for a fine 64 of his own on day 3; Roberto Diaz of Mexico, who closed with 65; and a host of others. Diaz was flawless in round 4, pairing 5 birdies with 13 pars. Por poco in the end; Diaz came up one shot shy. Riley was imperfect, with a pair of bogeys, but he added a birdie and a 12th-hole eagle to reach 10 beneath par. 4 golfers found their way to a tie for 3rd, at minus-eight, but no lower could they go.
Champions Tour: Morocco Champions debuts with a Quigley Qonquest
One of the scintillating aspects of Champions Tour golf, is the how is it that you win again scenario. Golfers who have passed half a decade on the fringe of contention, in the broadcast booth, or on the instructor’s tee, swiftly return to the realization that it ain’t easy! Stephen Ames had a Champions win in 2017, but earning the 2nd has been tougher than anticipated. Ames had a legitimate shot at the inaugural playing of the Morocco Champion, after opening with a stellar 63. Unfortunately for the Canadian, his tally rose in each round, and he concluded the week at 14 under par. Even more unfortunate was the presence of Brett Quigley, who never won on the youngster’s PGA Tour. Quigley opened with 69, then closed with 66 and 66. to absolutely cozen the trophy from Ames. While there were other pretenders to the top spot, only Quigley and Woody Austin (among the top 9) were able to reach the mid-60s on Sunday. Quigley stood -7 on the day through 15 holes, before his lone bogey forced him to duck and cover to the house. As for Ames, he made bogeys at 14 and 15, then followed up with birdies at 16 and 17. Needing one last chirp at the home hole to tie, he was shy with his effort, and away did the championship slip.
European Tour: Saudi International goes home with a #GirlDad
In a week that celebrated Kobe Bryant’s role as a girl dad, Graeme McDowell of Northern Ireland fulfilled a promise to himself. Vowing to show his children that he could still close the deal, the Ulsterman balanced birdies and bogeys (3 of each) on day four, and held off Dustin Johnson for his first European Tour victory in six years. The 2010 US Open champion held a 1-shot lead after three rounds; fortunately for him, his closest chaser was France’s Victor Dubuisson. If anyone was less familiar with winning than McDowell, it was Vic. Dubuisson stayed close through nine, but lost his touch at the start of the inward half. 3 bogeys and a double dropped him to -7, 5 shots out of the top spot and into a tie for 6th place. Belgium’s Thomas Pieters had the best final round of the contenders, with 7 birdies for 65. His effort brought him a solo 3rd finish, at -9. Johnson saddled himself with at least 2 bogeys each round. On Sunday, he had a pair of eagles and a birdie, but needed a bit more of this, and bit less of that, to catch GMac.
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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Don
Feb 3, 2020 at 11:01 am
I seriously don’t get the finau criticism. he played great all week, went low on the weekend, beat every player except one. maybe the article should be about how great webb finished and we can stop pretending finau gave it away. webb went birdie, birdie, and then birdie on playoff. congrats to him.
winning is hard. finau hardly gave away the tournament or choked. he simply got beat by a late birdie run. it seems the guy finishing second gets more criticism than guys missing cuts. (Spieth)
Ronald Montesano
Feb 9, 2020 at 7:40 am
Hey, Don.
Sorry it took so long to respond. We had to clear the comment, and while it’s not as complex as politics and engineering for me, it is a unique and covert operation. He did give the tournament away. He didn’t make birdie on 17, which he should do all the time. He didn’t hit good drives nor wedges on 18, twice. Webb did what he had to, to extend the tournament. Tony should have won. He is fast becoming the 2nd coming of Rickie Fowler, who also doesn’t win as often as he should.
Spieth has not entered a conversation, for me, for the past year. I can’t criticize a guy whose game is so far gone from what it once was. From the outside looking in, he needs to find a new caddie (which he won’t do) and get a true sense of where he goes awry. It might be as simple as, he woke up and found out that golf was difficult, after winning 3 majors. I would not fix the chicken-wing follow through. It’s what he knows, and all he can do is get worse by doing it. I believe it is 102% mental for him.