Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: Random thoughts on the Masters

Published

5 years ago

Apr 16, 2019

The first major of the year is history now, and true to form, it did not disappoint. Augusta National so often seems to find a way to deliver real drama and so many storylines right out of fantasy.

Tiger Woods has long been a polarizing figure in the game, it seems. But there is no denying that he combined shotmaking skills and steadiness under pressure …and more than just a bit of Augusta National savvy to earn this victory.

His shot to No. 12 showed that more than just about any other. How many times have we witnessed Masters rookies and relative rookies dunk their tee shot there by going at that right pin position? So Tiger watches Molinari, Koepka, and Finau make that mistake and takes the water completely out of play with his approach.

But what impressed me more about Tiger (or failed to impress by the others) was his ability to hit quality golf shots when it counted. How many of the others just could not put their drives in the fairway to give themselves good looks with their approaches? And how many hit below-average-to-poor approach shots to take birdie out of the picture and put bogey in it?

True to Masters form, we witnessed the drama of those who fired and fell back, giving us thrills and heartache along the way — Cantlay, Schauffele, Koepka. As is so often the case, the Masters is as much about who lost it as who won it.

Kudos to Tiger Woods for clawing his way back to the top of the heap in professional golf. Whether you like him or not, there’s no denying he played the golf course better than all the others. He never made the big mistakes and he hit the shots he needed too when he had to hit them. That’s the mark of a champion, right?

I read last night that he led the field in greens-in-regulation and was T1 in fairways. What a concept — hitting quality golf shots to beat a golf course!! He also stated that he had finally gotten his driver to where he could work it both ways with confidence. He always was a phenomenal iron player, with a scary short game and deadly putter. If he is feeling that way about his driver, the rest of this PGA Tour season might be one for the ages.

So now for some questions.

Watching this Masters for so many hours continued to punctuate how different the professional game is today than in the past, and how completely different it is from the one we recreational golfers play. Let me offer some observations as I watched the Masters unfold once again.

Understand, I’ve been watching this first major on the same course for well over 50 years, so I have a pretty deep pool of reference. With that in mind, might I ask some questions for us all to ponder?

What really defines a “par 5” hole? Historically, it meant a “three shotter,” but strategically-placed reachable par fives have always delivered drama. Bobby Jones said courses should have one or two of those, but that they should require a perfect high-risk drive to give the player that option. I really don’t think he envisioned “par 5s” that were reachable by the majority of the field with a medium to short iron. With players routinely hitting those to #13 and #15, can they really still be called “par five holes”? And how many true “par 5s” are there on the tour anymore? Aren’t these guys really playing courses that should have a par of 69 or 70?
Historically, at least through the 1990s, Augusta was a mid-to-long iron golf course. Greg Norman lost to Nicklaus in 1986 by flaring a 4-iron right on 18– when was the last time we saw that club for an approach there, except after a terrible drive? Is it the same challenge to play a course where the majority of approach shots are with a 7-iron or less in the golfers’ hands, as it is when the typical approach is with a 6-iron or longer?
But then, does that really matter? If you are hitting a 7-iron from 200, is it the same difficulty of a shot as if you have a 4-iron in your hand? What’s y’all’s take on that?
Just how good are these guys’ short games? It seems like they get up-and-down from everywhere, creating and executing an unimaginable variety of shots. At one point mid-way through the round, Molinari was a perfect 18-for-18 in saves this week! That is unbelievable, isn’t it? Do these short game skills make golf courses essentially defenseless unless they are tricked up? And do we really want to see that happen?

Those are my questions. I hope many of you will sound off with your take on them so I can learn from you.

Your Reaction?

LIKE104
LEGIT16
WOW2
LOL1
IDHT2
FLOP1
OB3
SHANK13

Related Topics:featured

Up Next

Municipal golf matters

Don't Miss

A decade in the dark, an eternity in the sun: Tiger Woods’ extraordinary self-belief has assured his star will forever burn bright

Terry Koehler

Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”. But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

32 Comments

CG

Apr 18, 2019 at 6:23 pm

Raymond Floyd won the Masters in 1975 with 17 under. The course was over 7,000 yards. He was hitting a wood driver and fairway woods that were 2-3 inches shorter (I recall the famous 4 wood). He used wound balata balls that were marshmallows compared to today’s model, and irons that had shorter shafts with less loft throughout the set. Tiger just won with -13 on a course that’s about 400 yards longer today (about 22-23 per hole) and yet players these days hit drivers well over 300 when back then, 275 was a big hit. I think many people are over reacting.

Reply Report comment
Odie

Apr 18, 2019 at 12:50 pm

Regarding distance, if the PGA Tour (not USGA) wants to do something about it they should have a “tour version” of current balls on the market that go 10-15% shorter. Now the tour pro flies it 270 vs 300. You can bring more “classic” courses back into play and recreational players can better relate to the tour pros they follow.

Bring strategy and shotmaking back to the tour.

Reply Report comment
golfraven

Apr 18, 2019 at 7:29 am

One question really strikes me. Why were there three guys with leaf blowers and referees suddenly on the 12the green when Tiger was about to hit his putt? Have not seen this on any other tournament since I can remember watching golf? What did they discuss? Nobody seem to be mentioning this scenario?
Why is the 12th such a myth? Folks seem to be dropping balls into water more in the last round. Can someone clarify this for me please?

Reply Report comment
- Ace
  
  Apr 18, 2019 at 8:35 am
  
  This happens all the time, clearing sand or debris from the green from previous players or if a gust of wind brought stuff onto the green. Tour events are meticulously maintained for the pros.
  
  Reply Report comment
Daniel Kidd

Apr 18, 2019 at 6:32 am

I’ll comment on the distance players are hitting it and how that gives the player a shorter iron into the green. Golf is always changing and technology causes much of that change. The players used to play hickory shafts and some felt like it was cheating to use steel. This change completely changed the game. How much has the ball changed since the days of stuffing it full of feathers?

Technology has always changed the game and it will continue to. I don’t know what the answer to this is…do we stop innovation so it all stays the same? I’m glad I’m not swinging hickory shafts and putting on furry greens that require mostly luck to bounce a long putt into the hole. But at the same time, I don’t want to hit driver lob wedge into every par 4. Obviously we can’t make all courses longer to accommodate distance gains.

To me, the distance problem is really only a problem at the professional level. Most of the guys I play with struggle to reach a 400 yd par 4.

Reply Report comment
Joseph Greenberg

Apr 17, 2019 at 6:01 pm

Augusta mows the green surrounds so that contestants almost always have to hit into the grain. The greens are recognized as the most challenging to putt in the world. So if Francesco and his ilk go 18 for 18 in saves, bless and praise them. Also recognize that the greens couldn’t firm up, that your wedge gurus are making pros smarter by the month (DJ competing with Rickie, Jordan and Justin with a wedge in his mitts is Exhibit 1), and that metrics guys are pushing for concentrating more and more practice time around the green

Reply Report comment
- Mardukes
  
  Apr 17, 2019 at 11:02 pm
  
  The pond next to the 11th green. When was the last time someone put s ball in it? IIRC it used to cause problems.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Pelling
    
    Apr 18, 2019 at 8:29 am
    
    It seemed like Tiger and Phil hit it way right off #11 tee and always ending up on that hard pan with a clear shot to the green! What’s up with that?
    
    Reply Report comment
- IAIN HUTCHINSON
  
  Apr 18, 2019 at 3:40 am
  
  I am not sure if I agree with this statement. I read an article just before this years masters which said that the greens are amongst the highest in first putt success but also the highest is 3 putts. So if the read is right they are true and will hole out. But if you miss they are very difficult to stop and produce the greatest number of 3 putts. Would be interested is hearing what the pro’s say about this interesting statistical conundrum
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Mario B
    
    Apr 18, 2019 at 6:12 pm
    
    Mostly because the holes are often in a small depression and all shots on the right side of a ridge will feed towards it but shots reaching the wrong part of the green will get a strong slope on the last few yards making 3 putts quite common (13, 14, 16, 18 for example)
    
    Reply Report comment
Bob Jones

Apr 17, 2019 at 5:24 pm

Augusta National is becoming obsolete, just like St. Andrews Old is. In his book, Golf is My Game, Bobby Jones described how to play the course during tournament time. For example, No. 16 was a 2, 3, or 4-iron. I remember seeing that on TV. Today it’s a 7, 8, or 9-iron. No. 13 used to be a 3-shotter because few players wanted to risk going for it in two. Now, who doesn’t do that, which is why the club bought land from neighboring Augusta CC to lengthen it, and they hit the green easily in two. Etc. In 10-15 years, if that long, ANGC will be exposed beyond fixing.

As for the hole values, you could call every hole a par 4 and the total scores would be the same. Like they say, par is just a number.

Reply Report comment
- Gary Maxwell
  
  Apr 17, 2019 at 6:08 pm
  
  I don’t think Augusta is obsolete. I do think they should acknowledge the fact that there are no par 5s on the course during the tournament.
  
  Reply Report comment
just a thought

Apr 17, 2019 at 5:03 pm

I don’t want the technology or equipment advances taken away… the advancement of the game is not decided by the 150 best in the world.

At 250 yds begin tightening the fairway till it is no more 20-25 steps wide at 300… reward the long straight tee shot but punish the hell out of the player that isn’t so straight.

When it’s all said and done their greatest skill arrives from 100 yards in….they are phenomenal

Reply Report comment
Howard Clark

Apr 17, 2019 at 4:40 pm

The “second cut”, as the inane announcers continue to call it, was fairway height at many courses. No rough, no golf.

Reply Report comment
Brad

Apr 17, 2019 at 3:09 pm

The Masters and the Open should be played with drivers having a maximum size of 275cc or made of actual wood. Let’s see how the pros play these courses without the massive boom stick in their hands…

Reply Report comment
Rev G

Apr 17, 2019 at 8:23 am

I think there is some truth to saying that a 200 yard shot with a 4 iron in the past is similar to a 200 yard shot with a 7 iron in today’s game. Especially when you consider that the lofts of today’s 7 iron is between a 5 iron and 6 iron of the past. And then you factor in today’s ball that spins so much less, you need more loft to get the ball up in the air.

Augusta is so perfectly manicured, the greens are so smooth – it really makes it much easier for the pros – and as noted above, the fairways roll out so much, giving the pros even more length.

One of the other golf websites, showed a statistic saying that the pros putt much better at Augusta from inside of ten feet than at the average tour stop. That can only be accounted for by the fact that the greens are so smooth and true. They do tend to have on average more 3 putts, but that is not surprising considering the large slopes on the Augusta greens. But the pin placements are usually in relatively flatter spots.

I think if you slowed the fairways and greens, grew up some more rough you could definitely make it longer and tougher.

But should they make it tougher, it sure is fun to watch, and the best golfer for the week won. Tiger hit the most fairways and greens and simply out smarted the rest. It was great theatre.

Reply Report comment
- Pelling
  
  Apr 18, 2019 at 8:34 am
  
  If you look at the conditioning of today’s golfers (Tiger, DJ, Adam Scott, etc.) and compare it with players in years past, there is no mystery why the ball goes farther…
  
  Reply Report comment
John

Apr 16, 2019 at 9:25 pm

One word. “Merion”. Pros were torched at that too short of US Open ourse

Reply Report comment
- Bob Jones
  
  Apr 17, 2019 at 5:14 pm
  
  Yes, because the USGA had it unbelievable tricked up with really narrow fairways and rough the height of which hadn’t been seen before. It was an admission that unless the course was later beyond recognition it wouldn’t stand up to the modern player.
  
  Reply Report comment
lee kocanda

Apr 16, 2019 at 8:47 pm

I totally agree.coursesfor tour players are to easy for todays pros .tighten fairway landing areas and grow the rough. make these guys grind .myself and my golfing buddies love u,s.opens where par is good. it seems to me that the tour hierarchy think people like seeing a bob hope birdie fest .

Reply Report comment
Lash

Apr 16, 2019 at 7:10 pm

Everyone always talks about what Bobby Jones envisioned…what club should be hit into which green. And if that is still the goal, there is a solution. The fairways back in the day, didn’t have 50 yard roll outs, and the greens weren’t 11-13 on the stimpmeter either. Yeah, a 4 iron into the green is a great shot, but back in his day a green would hold the shot because it was more receptive. They have added slope and made them faster that what Mr. Jones also envisioned. If you want the players hitting longer irons in, take the course back to the way it was….a little slower, and a little furrier. Also pinch in the landing areas and grow the rough. Things can be done without adding more length.

But you can’t have it both ways….folks like the long ball, and a lot of folks don’t want to see pros embarrassed ( hear me USGA). They want to see great golf, great towering shots, great approach shots rewarded, no courses tricked up, and golfer rewarded for great shots, creativity, and for getting g hot at the right time.

Reply Report comment
Jeff Baldwin

Apr 16, 2019 at 4:57 pm

Good questions!
My opinions only:
1. “Par” is just a number. To win, you shoot a lower score than everyone else. I would say that right now the par 5 holes are more like the difficult par 4s, but does it matter? then again, 13 under isn’t a demolition of the course, and not a new low score, even though the course was soft. True, there have been adjustments over the years, but I don’t see a problem.
2. Obviously, the equipment has changed the game. But the old 4 iron isn’t that much different from today’s 6, so perhaps the difference is not as much as it sounds like. Sticking an approach from 200 still isn’t an easy task, is it? Which leads to…
3. To me it doesn’t really matter. They still have to make the shot. They can’t hit 12 from 150, so…
4. Yes, their short games are crazy. I think that emphasis on the short game has really gone up as more statistics have been available, rather than just “feeling”. I sure hope people don’t see that as a driver to trick things up. Perhaps a little fluffier rough, and things like that, but if you are near, but not on the green, you should not be penalized more than if you were farther out, right? I think the amazing and imaginative short game shots are the most fun to watch! It’s not a totally recent thing, Watson’s Open, Tiger a bunch of times over two decades, Seve, the list does go on. Bottom line is that, yes, these guys are good!

Reply Report comment
- Hrannar
  
  Apr 17, 2019 at 5:54 am
  
  Well in most tour pros bag are blades with traditional lofts. My guess is that Tigers 7 iron is not much different than a 30 year old 7 iron blade. Similar design and same loft. It still is a stroke play game and the best score wins. It however doesn’t make discussion of how the course plays and is set up mute. They do drive 40-50 yards longer and have shorter approach shots as a result. Why not make the par 5 holes play a 5 like they were meant to in the beginning. I also think the second cut was too short, almost no penalty not hitting the fairway. The Majors should be hard.
  
  Reply Report comment
DB

Apr 16, 2019 at 2:49 pm

If they wanted to make the Par 5s harder all they would have to do is narrow the fairways and let the rough grow longer. They didn’t do that so obviously they like the way it’s going.

Also I’m not terribly concerned about players hitting 7-iron instead of 4-iron. Like you said, in the old days 4-iron was a 200-yard shot. Now for most players that is 6 or even 7-iron. But also the old irons were lofted weak. A 4-iron was probably 26+ degrees. Ironically it seems like the only person still playing the older lofts is Tiger.

Reply Report comment
- Lance
  
  Apr 16, 2019 at 10:04 pm
  
  Generally the older long irons were 2 iron at 18 degrees 3 iron at 21 degrees 4 iron 24 degrees
  
  Reply Report comment
dat

Apr 16, 2019 at 2:30 pm

I get that everyone is in shape, better ball, better equipment – but these courses are just too short for these guys. Look at #5, where they lengthened the hole – and it played at par. That’s about how all the holes should be, but not every course has the kind of money AGNC has. And that’s part of the problem. If one course can arbitrarily extend a hole or two, but others cannot, the only equalizer then is the golf ball.

Reply Report comment
- Steven M
  
  Apr 17, 2019 at 7:16 am
  
  No it isn’t. This drives me mad. The ball isn’t the problem. Grow the grass longer, make the course tighter. People understand how to hit it longer thanks to TM/GC Quad. Along with a change in approach as to how they play golf now. They’re not tickling it around like the days of Faldo who plotted his way around. They go for broke and hit it hard.
  Tighten the course up, and watch people plot they’re way round again.
  
  Reply Report comment
Ben

Apr 16, 2019 at 2:02 pm

I guess you have to look at it from two points of view. Course design or competition. Yes the course is designed in relation to par and for pros that is mostly a non factor. They shoot under par everywhere. But they are competing for the lowest score, so the score is in relation to each other not designated par. Stress of competition becomes the course they are playing. As we all seen on Sunday and past masters hole 12, a short iron par 3 closed the door on many. That’s a relatively simple shot on any other day of the year. I wouldn’t get too caught up on how long the courses are, what clubs are being played or what par is. Lowest score wins.

Reply Report comment
PSG

Apr 16, 2019 at 1:48 pm

Its silly to adjust the “par” of holes to the score average. Wait, #12 at TPC Louisiana plays to a score average of 4.67 during the Zurich Classic. Make it a par 5! You’ll never get it 100% right, so don’t try. Its fine the way it is.

And given that the scoring average on tour is 71.57, par 72 seems exactly right.

Reply Report comment
- Ace
  
  Apr 18, 2019 at 8:33 am
  
  Get outta here with your facts and data!
  
  Good point though, sometimes the players get hot at the right time like Tiger winning majors by over 12 strokes or Rory winning by a ton while the rest of the field is struggling for par.
  
  Reply Report comment
percy freeman

Apr 16, 2019 at 11:41 am

Terry,
If they don’t change the ball for the pros then the only defense Augusta could have would be to grow REAL ROUGH and tighten the landing areas (see US Open rough).

what else is there? they are out of real estate…..

Reply Report comment
- Johnny Penso
  
  Apr 16, 2019 at 2:11 pm
  
  Longer par 5’s and riskier tee shots are what is needed to bring a bit more of the challenge back to golf tournaments. Laying it out there 320 with little fear of trouble, getting a 30 yard roll and hitting a 9 iron in, is a par 4 not a par 5. Narrow the fairway at 280-350, put in some trees and bunkers and make the tee shot risky. Some par 5’s should have smaller greens with a narrow path to roll the ball up if necessary. No par 5 should be under 550 yards these days, making even a perfect tee shot leave at least a 200 yard approach and the player who plays safe off the tee not able to reach the green in two. The whole idea of risk/reward is gone on most par 5s these days.
  
  Reply Report comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

5 days ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

Your Reaction?

LIKE37
LEGIT15
WOW4
LOL1
IDHT1
FLOP4
OB3
SHANK17

Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

1 week ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

2 weeks ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

Your Reaction?