News
Talking U.S. Open bets with a pro gambler
This isn’t your standard futures article from someone without skin in the game, GolfWRX members! After the overwhelming positive response to our Masters betting piece, Dave from Top Market Sports is back to discuss wagers for the second major of the year.
Q. Can you give an example of a bet you’re making this week?
A. Sure. We’re a little bit bearish on Brooks Koepka. And instead of just making a bet on him to miss the cut, we’ve decided to structure a matchup trade around him consisting of 4 separate, equally-weighted bets. Those bets are:
Rahm -115 over Koepka (Tournament)
Rahm -110 over Koepka (1st Rd Only)
Stenson +105 over Koepka (Tournament)
Stenson +100 over Koepka (1st Rd Only)
So why are we ganging up on poor Brooks? It’s been well-documented that his starts have been limited this year due to left wrist issues. After a strong showing at The Players and then threatening to win at Colonial, maybe it’s all behind him. But even guys with no prior wrist problems sometimes bristle at the thought of ripping into U.S. Open length rough. Between the hoopla that comes with being defending champion, and possibly putting some extra pressure on himself off the tee to avoid the thick stuff this week…we just think he’s overvalued here. The idea is to hit at least three-out-of-four of these bets against him.
Q. Of the favorites in this field, who do you like to win?
A. The favorites are difficult just because the value is really not there. That being said, we were really close to pulling the trigger on Dustin Johnson at 9/1 Sunday night but pumped the brakes after waking up Monday morning to see him sitting at 8/1. While it’s really tough to recommend him at this wildly inflated futures price, we certainly wouldn’t be betting against him this week. In fact, there will probably be a couple great spots to back him in daily matchups as the tournament unfolds.
That leads us to Rickie Fowler at 16/1. We’ve been auto-betting Fowler almost every time he’s teed it up this year. In fact, we’ve backed him to win in seven of his 12 starts in 2018 with nothing to show for it. At some point, you have to look yourself in the mirror and ask if you’re being stubborn. But right now, his actions have not given us enough reason to go that far. Outside of DJ, he possesses more natural talent than anyone in the world (and that includes McIlroy). The market is growing tired of Rickie not being able to close the door on a major yet, and that creates enough value to continue wagering on him. He’s worth the money this week.
Q. What about a long shot?
A. Consider playing Emiliano Grillo at 100/1. His outstanding demeanor while in contention at Colonial a few weeks ago was eye-opening. He’s quietly produced four top 10s in 12 PGA Tour starts this year. As a late addition to the field, the World Number 52 might be freerolling at Shinnecock. It’s going to be Grillo’s third straight U.S. Open start, so he should be comfortable with the nerve-racking atmosphere. It’s no secret that you’re going to have to put the ball where they mow the grass this week, and he’s more than capable of doing that. If he can catch lightning in a bottle with that putter, he might be a nice lottery ticket to be holding while sitting on the couch on Sunday afternoon.
You can check out Top Market Sports for free betting picks, free articles, and a free real-time odds portal. They can also be found on Instagram @topmarketsports.
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 PGA Championship
GolfWRX is on site this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, for the PGA Championship.
While we see fewer equipment changes and new gear seeding at major championships, we get a look at custom gear and looks into the bags of players we rarely see, which is just as exciting. In the case of the PGA Championship, this means a look at the gear some of the PGA Professionals who qualified for the tournament will be gaming, and LIV players, such as Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed.
Check out links to all our albums from Valhalla below and check back throughout the week as we continue to update.
General Albums
WITB Albums
- Michael Block – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Patrick Reed – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Cam Smith – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Brooks Koepka – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Josh Speight – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Takumi Kanaya – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Kyle Mendoza – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Adrian Meronk – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Jordan Smith – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Jeremy Wells – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Jared Jones – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- John Somers – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Larkin Gross – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Tracy Phillips – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Jon Rahm – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Keita Nakajima – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Kazuma Kobori – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- David Puig – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Ryan Van Velzen – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Brad Marek – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Chris Gotterup – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Rich Beem WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Phil Mickelson – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Matt Dobyns – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Lucas Herbert – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Jason Dufner – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- John Daly – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Taylor Gooch – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Dean Burmester – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Joaquin Niemann – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
- Dustin Johnson – WITB – 2024 PGA Championship
Pullout Albums
- Ping putter covers – 2024 PGA Championship
- Bettinardi covers – 2024 PGA Championship
- Cameron putter covers – 2024 PGA Championship
- Max Homa – Titleist 2 wood – 2024 PGA Championship
- Scotty Cameron experimental putter shaft by UST – 2024 PGA Championship
- Joaquin Niemann – new Ping putter – 2024 PGA Championship
- Brooks Koepka’s new Cameron putter – 2024 PGA Championship
- Rickie Fowler’s Cobra bag and Aerojet driver – 2024 PGA Championship
- Super Stroke grip – 2024 PGA Championship
- Tiger Woods – 2024 PGA Championship
- Michael Block’s new TaylorMade “Proto” 7-iron, from address – 2024 PGA Championship
- Odyssey putter covers – 2024 PGA Championship
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Dan
Jun 12, 2018 at 3:46 pm
Like everyone else is like to know if bet anything on Tiger
Big Foots Fat Foot
Jun 13, 2018 at 4:24 am
…….what?