19th Hole
Talking golf betting in general, Masters betting in particular, with a pro gambler
It’s no secret that the Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Not only are golf fans who generally don’t punt keen to put a little cash on the line, but general sports fans tune in and pony up in a major way.
Puns aside, we wanted to pose a few questions to to a seasoned golf bettor to see what wisdom he can impart to the more recreational golf gamblers among us.
Dave is the owner of Top Market Sports, the only sports advisory site in the world that’s owned and operated by real Wall Street traders and analysts.
Q. If someone is considering getting into golf betting, what advice would you give him/her?
A. Don’t be scared to bet on underdogs. When betting futures (who will win a given tournament), the value is always in the bottom half of the board. Guys who bet golf for serious money are never going to be kicking themselves for missing out on a 6/1 or 7/1 winner. Look at the surprise winners we’ve seen so far this season. Ted Potter Jr. won at Pebble as a 200/1 shot. Patton Kizzire got the job done as a 75/1 shot in Hawaii. Those are serious payouts.
Q. There’s a lot more to betting on golf than picking who will win the tournament. Can you talk about betting during the tournament?
A. That’s what we specialize in. We’re not really big on betting futures. We’re more focused on round-by-round matchups. Example: Keegan Bradley vs Jamie Lovemark in Round 1. Who will have the lower score? These types of propositions are available at most major sports books. Again, recreational bettors look to bet on favorites. It’s human nature. But sharper players are selectively picking dogs.
Q. Is it generally a good idea to chase value in betting players ahead major tournament weeks?
A. It can work for you, but also against you. It also opens the door for hedging opportunities if you’ve established a position months in advance and the market has moved in your favor. Everyone wishes they had booked a fat ticket on Tiger to win the Masters when he was like 300/1 in October (laughs). Now he’s trading at about 10/1. A lot of guys would be looking to sell some or all of that ticket in order to lock in a profit. Buy low, sell high, right? At the same time, you could’ve gotten Hideki Matsuyama a couple months ago at 15/1. As of this morning he’s 35/1 because his form has faded a bit. So it works both ways.
Q. What resources do you rely on?
A. Statistics are readily available to the public just like they are in any other sport. Strokes gained numbers, greens-in-regulation, scrambling, etc. But if you really want to start profitably betting golf, there’s no substitute for just sitting down and grinding coverage. We like to DVR most of it so we can be efficient with our time. We also talk a lot about “boots on the ground” in our office. There’s nothing wrong or shady about actually being at the practice facility during these events. It’s public information, available to anyone at the event with open eyes and open ears. We’ve had guys at 7 tournaments so far this season. I don’t want to oversimplify it…but if a guy has the yips on the practice putting green, there might be some extra value in betting against him.
Q. Any past golf punts you’re particularly proud of?
A. One recent bet that we told our clients to load up on was Bubba Watson +145 vs Justin Thomas in the semis of the Dell Match Play. A guy who’s got two green jackets should not be that much of an underdog over the course of a single round, especially when he’s coming in hot after winning his group and then a tough quarterfinal match. Also, Bubba’s not the biggest fan favorite in the world, right? This is something we specifically talked about while handicapping the match. People like to root against Bubba, and that created even more value in the market. It was a max play for us. We really stepped out and hit that one hard.
Q. The Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Do you approach it differently?
A. Golf betting markets are less liquid than most other sports. Meaning there’s a hell of a lot more money being bet on football and basketball than on golf or something like tennis. During the majors, there’s more public money AKA square money AKA dumb money in play, which can be mopped up nicely if you know what you’re doing. We’ll be making some of our biggest bets of the PGA Tour season during the Masters.
You can check out Top Market Sports for free betting picks, free articles, and a free real-time odds portal. They can also be found on Instagram @topmarketsports. Top Market Sports went 68-27-3 across all sports in the month of March.
- LIKE32
- LEGIT8
- WOW4
- LOL2
- IDHT3
- FLOP3
- OB1
- SHANK8
19th Hole
“Is it a Titleist?” – Jerry Seinfeld shares never-before-heard details of iconic scene
On Thursday, legendary comedian Jerry Seinfeld joined the Rich Eisen Show and shared an awesome story from a “Seinfeld” episode titled “The Marine Biologist.”
In the episode, a golf ball goes into the blow hole of a whale. According to Seinfeld, that was never in the episode’s script.
Seinfeld recalls saying the night before the filming of the episode, “What if what puts the whale in distress is Kramer’s golf ball?”
“He’s hitting golf balls at the beach. George is at the beach with a girl, we haven’t connected them!”
“We write that speech the night before at two o’clock in the morning…The sea was angry that day my friend.”
View this post on Instagram
Kramer finishes the iconic scene by asking “Is it a Titleist?” Seinfeld told Eisen the show sought Titleist’s permission to mention its name, saying the ball had to be a Titleist. Fortunately for lovers of the iconic show, the company agreed.
If (somehow) you’re unfamiliar with the scene, check it out below.
More from the 19th Hole
- Phil Mickelson drops big retirement hint; Says LIV will grow the game “on a much more global basis”
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
New here?
- LIKE10
- LEGIT2
- WOW0
- LOL2
- IDHT0
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK0
19th Hole
Phil Mickelson drops big retirement hint; Says LIV will grow the game ‘on a much more global basis’
While speaking with Bloomberg, golf legend Phil Mickelson acknowledged that he is inching close towards retirement.
“I’m 53 now,” Phil said, “and my career, you know, it’s — if I’m being truthful, it’s on — it’s — it’s — I’m a — it’s towards its end.”
Mickelson added that one of his focuses now is helping other young players.
“Now, I would like to help others find the same enjoyment and fulfillment that the game has provided me. I’d like them to experience that as well.”
The six-time major champion credited LIV with reaching new markets in golf to help it grow.
“I think that’s exciting for everyone involved in the game because we are going to reach markets that we didn’t reach before. I think it’s going to inspire more golf courses, inspire more manufacturers selling clubs and equipment, but also inspiring young kids to try to play golf professionally. I just see that the game of golf is going to grow on a much more global basis because of the excitement and the presence that LIV Golf has.”
Mickelson is playing at this week’s LIV Singapore and shot a first round 72 (+1).
More from the 19th Hole
- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
New here?
- LIKE19
- LEGIT4
- WOW2
- LOL4
- IDHT2
- FLOP3
- OB0
- SHANK26
19th Hole
Tiger explains why golf has ‘negative connotations’ for daughter Sam
While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.
On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.
“Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.
“We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”
The nine-minute interview touches on plenty of other subjects, such as Tiger’s relationship with his late father, Earl.
It’s arguably the most open we’ve seen the 15-time major champion in an interview and is most definitely worth watching.
Tiger Woods sits down with Carson Daly to talk about golf, growing up in Southern California, his father and his new apparel line, Sun Day Red. pic.twitter.com/2TFbSNxzxq
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) May 1, 2024
More from the 19th Hole
- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
New here?
- LIKE10
- LEGIT7
- WOW1
- LOL3
- IDHT0
- FLOP1
- OB1
- SHANK3
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Justin Thomas on the equipment choice of Scottie Scheffler that he thinks is ‘weird’
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
‘Absolutely crazy’ – Major champ lays into Patrick Cantlay over his decision on final hole of RBC Heritage
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Two star names reportedly blanked Jon Rahm all week at the Masters
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Report: LIV Golf identifies latest star name they hope to sign to breakaway tour
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Neal Shipley presser ends in awkward fashion after reporter claims Tiger handed him note on 8th fairway
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Brandel Chamblee has ‘no doubt’ who started the McIlroy/LIV rumor and why
-
19th Hole1 week ago
LET pro gives detailed financial breakdown of first week on tour…and the net result may shock you
-
Equipment3 weeks ago
Jason Day on his recent switch into Srixon ZX5 and ZX7 Mk II irons