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Opinion & Analysis

Six Bold Predictions for 2015

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There were some memorable, forgettable and downright soap opera-ish events in the golfing world in 2014.

Golf is notoriously difficult to predict, but I will go all out—offering some brazen thoughts for 2015. We’ll see how stupid these statements make me look by season’s end, but for now, here are some unbridled predictions about professional golf in 2015.

Nick Watney and Scott Piercy will be breakout players in 2015

Nick Watney

Few talk about Watney anymore even though he is just four years removed from a stellar two-win, 10 top-10 season that netted him fourth place on the PGA Tour’s strokes gained category.

He massively struggled for most of 2014, but he really showed signs of form down the stretch. At 34, he’s also still in the midst of his prime, and that 2011 season was just too good to sleep on Watney. I feel his form returns in a big way in 2015.

Scott Piercy 2015

Piercy was out five months in 2014 and enters this year on a Major Medical Extension. The 36-year-old, while not recognized among casual fans, is a two-time PGA Tour winner who’s firmly in the long bomber category. He’s not very consistent, but his talent is top-flight, and that makes his potential high-end performances something to salivate over.

The inconsistency will continue, but I’m betting on Piercy channeling his best more often and winning multiple times on the PGA Tour in 2015. His long-driving, high-ball, strong-putting trio is perfect for the Masters, so if he can somehow qualify again for Augusta this season, he’s an excellent darkhorse candidate there.

Michelle Wie wins two majors, Lydia Ko wins zero

Michelle Wie 2015

I think Wie really lets it loose in 2015. The formerly named Kraft Nabisco will finally fall into her hands, and Wie will capture one of the final four majors to add to her total.

As for Ko, her rookie season was electric with three wins and the Race for the CME Globe crown.

But Ko was only one-for-five when she contended in a major on Sunday in 2014. She’ll also be devoting time with her studies at Korea University, a significant distraction from her golf game.

The 17-year-old will no doubt remain among the game’s elite in 2015, but a major victory just won’t factor in quite yet— partially due to her obligations and inexperience, but also a result of timing and chance.

Joost Luiten becomes a household name in the U.S.

joost luiten  2015

If you’re American and do not pay attention to the golf played in Europe, please educate yourself to this name!

Luiten is a European Tour mainstay whose profile has risen quickly in the last two years. As recently as June 2013, the Dutchman was 137th world golf rankings, before winning twice in Europe as part of an eight top-10 campaign. His new top-50 ranking allowed him into all of golf’s majors and WGCs for the first time, and he produced a stellar one-win, nine top-10 follow-up season to put his world ranking at No. 29 for the moment.

The 28-year-old has the excellent results and the endorsement of Paul McGinley as a future Ryder Cup star and mainstay, but attention in the U.S. still eludes him.

While he’ll remain on the European Tour in 2015—where most American fans hardly notice anything—he’s in good standing to qualify for all majors and WGCs once again, and that is where he will make his splash.

Will he win a major or WGC in 2015? I’m not too confident in that, but I wouldn’t put it past him. At the very least though, he will contend in multiple big events and see his recognition rise on the other side of the pond. 

Brooks Koepka Struggles in First Full Year on PGA Tour

Brooks Kopeka 2015

This 24-year-old American is the golden boy for those prognosticating a breakout young superstar in 2015, and I don’t necessarily disagree on Koepka’s long-term potential.

The hype is understandable. Koepka was a three-time All-American at Florida State who built his infant pro career with three wins on the European Challenge Tour in 2013 and a one-win, seven top-10 campaign on a PGA Tour/European Tour combo path in 2014.

Now he’s an experienced, successful professional with all of the talent in the world entering into a full PGA Tour membership. The signs are there, but golf usually isn’t too smooth, even for the ultra-skilled.

Just recently, Koepka’s buddy Peter Uihlein, a former World No. 1 amateur, produced a promising one-win, eight top-10 season in 2013, and while he fought injuries at times this past year, he only managed a two top-10 season in 2014 that included a six consecutive missed cuts at one point.

That’s just one example of the fact that many talent-heavy youngsters do experience regression at certain points in the early parts of their career. Koepka had a good start in the wraparound fall, but with him transitioning full time to the tougher fields on the world’s toughest tour, that short-term drop-off appears primed for 2015.

The Rise of Italy

Matteo Manassero 2015

Matteo Manassero really faltered in 2014, but I mostly chalk that up to the young career regressions I mentioned with Koepka (a huge equipment change and focus on altering his swing for power didn’t help Manassero either).

He’ll be in for a rebound season, and at least one of the Molinari brothers will be in for a career-best campaign.

Three other Italians join them on the European Tour—one of them a 17-year-old—and that trio will produce enough excitement that, along with the strong chorus from Manassero and a Molinari, Italy will make itself a boisterous force in the game in 2015.

Tiger Woods wins major No. 15

Hero World Challenge - Round One

OK, not a wild belief.

Going back to his last measurable season in 2013, the 39-year-old won five times, including victories at the Players Championship and two WGCs, was the world’s best golfer and may or may not have been a pin rattling away from winning the Masters.

Still, there is no guarantee he is that man in 2015. Woods has also been major-less for 6.5 years now, and some have pondered whether this drought is leaving him mentally stilted down the stretch of majors.

Woods remains too talented though to be stuck on 14 majors for much longer. The year’s first three courses profile well for his game (and the fourth one does too, the results just haven’t been there), and the American has been close in majors several times since his last triumph in 2008. The winless streak falls in 2015.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. RG

    Feb 1, 2015 at 6:09 pm

    Predictions looking great 3 weeks in….
    Tiger can’t play, Koepka wins straight off and Manassero can’t make a cut.
    Just waiting for Lydia Ko to win the first major of the year….. Could you predict anyone else to fail? I’ll bet on them next week!

  2. Jafar

    Jan 5, 2015 at 11:23 am

    No way,

    Lydia Ko wins two majors, Brooks Koepka wins one as well.

    Tiger finally competes in a major…

  3. DEVLIN

    Jan 5, 2015 at 10:42 am

    nice predictions, however you have obviously left out several players that have a better chance at majors…
    Rory will win, despite the distractions of the lawsuit.
    Bubba Watson will win again, he knows how to now, and his caddie keeps his distractions in check.
    Jimmy Walker, gets no respect but know what needs to be done.
    Martin Kaymer will win again, probably another major! he fixed the new swing.
    Jason Day, needs to get rid of his thoughts on in the final round but should do it this year.
    Finally, the dark horse for me should be Patrick Reed, he wants to win so badly that its getting in his way…maybe after his wife calms him down…once the baby routine settles down. HE needs to find a good caddy!

  4. herman

    Jan 5, 2015 at 12:05 am

    How about Sergio winning a major? Best player atm without a major win.

    • Kevin Casey

      Jan 8, 2015 at 10:25 am

      I definitely agree with Sergio winning a major: http://www.golfwrx.com/237019/why-sergio-garcia-isnt-going-to-end-his-career-without-a-major/

      The reason I don’t put him here is because I personally wouldn’t classify it as a bold prediction. As you said, you could easily call him the best active player without a major, to me it’s not going out on too much of a limb to say that a player who should’ve won a major by now and absolutely has the talent to, will finally get the job done this year.

      Regardless, making the prediction that Sergio will win his first major in 2015 is not a bad idea at all.

  5. Mccance79

    Jan 5, 2015 at 12:01 am

    Tiger winning another Major I will be willing to wager that he does not!! My prediction for 2015… Rickie Fowler wins his first Major!!!

    • brian

      Jan 7, 2015 at 1:13 pm

      eh I think rickie will in another year but not this year.

  6. JHM

    Jan 4, 2015 at 8:51 pm

    well, at least his game…..

  7. TigerWho

    Jan 4, 2015 at 6:48 pm

    No Tiger will win 5 majors this year!!!

  8. Bladrick_Gets_Bageled

    Jan 4, 2015 at 2:46 pm

    Pfft. Baldrick isnt gonna win squat……..he’ll muddle through much of the season. He might win 2 on some of his favorite tracks—majors—no way. Look at the Jenkins piece—hes going to have to play like someone not 40 yrs old!
    Fowler? Gimme a break. All you ever needed to know about Fowler was that even after his HUGE Puma contract was inked—he still layed up in Arizone on that PAR 5 –failing to win when he had the chance. The commercials say -oh the kid has guts! Really? Guts? His career will be a big orange hat stuffed with $$. He’ll be remembered as one of the first huge golf superstars that didnt win squat—the male equivalent of Anna Kornikova. Big name—plenty of $$—no record.

  9. leon

    Jan 4, 2015 at 1:48 pm

    Predictions never come into reality…

  10. Kyle

    Jan 4, 2015 at 10:35 am

    And why would tiger retire? Best player to ever play, just got healthy, still makes a ton of money, etc.

  11. Claude

    Jan 4, 2015 at 9:50 am

    Tiger Woods will come back like life he needs time and he’ll start to play again, and even if he doesn’t play the pga circuit there’s always the senior one but that’s a way to go yet and retire no don’t think so!

    • Mr Obvious

      Jan 4, 2015 at 9:21 pm

      Tiger is not eligible for the Champions tour for another decade. Perhaps Tiger will win one of the 5 places he won in his last healthy year. Maybe the guy knows how to win just a bit.

      • brian

        Jan 7, 2015 at 1:15 pm

        I dont think tiger will play the senior tour. When he cannot compete on the PGA tour he will retire. This is because it is likely that his retirement will be due to injury rather than not being able to compete

  12. Ponjo

    Jan 4, 2015 at 5:11 am

    Stenson wins one of the majors

  13. No Major for you

    Jan 3, 2015 at 9:49 pm

    “Woods remains too talented though to be stuck on 14 majors for much longer.

    Nah. You could change that sentence with “_____ remains too talented to not win a single major” and call it a day. So many good players without a major.

  14. No Major for you

    Jan 3, 2015 at 9:47 pm

    Eldrick gets injured early from trying out a mad shot and cancels rest of year.

    • Philip

      Jan 3, 2015 at 11:27 pm

      Actually there is a lot of truth to this in that he doesn’t accept when to lay up, even if it risks hurting himself. I still think he’ll continue on with the season, but unless his driving becomes quite reliable, his chances of stressing his body to make the shot is still quite high.

  15. The dude

    Jan 3, 2015 at 8:06 pm

    Tigers prediction is the biggest stretch

  16. Gus

    Jan 3, 2015 at 7:03 pm

    Furyk wins a major, Fowler doesn’t

    • Forsbrand

      Jan 4, 2015 at 5:51 am

      Fowler best record in the majors last year. So what, maybe he had his chance and that’s as close as he’ll ever get. Too many people stating he’ll win a major or multiples. It’s like this ridiculous tag “best player not to win major” well, if he was good enough to win one he would have! As for tiger winning, he might win the state lottery ………

    • John

      Jan 5, 2015 at 2:52 pm

      Where? US Open is his best bet, and that dog track Chambers will play like a tricked out Open Championship venue.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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