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Carney: Who will win the Ryder Cup? It’s all about the BIG GUYS

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Come Friday, when the U.S. faces Europe in the 40th Ryder Cup, I’ll be watching through Irish eyes. Paul McGinley’s eyes.

I won’t be worried about how the captain’s picks are doing.

I won’t be thinking, What if we only had Billy Horschel!

I won’t be trying to figure out what “pods” Watson is putting together or how his rookies are faring.

That’s not how McGinley will be judging things. He’ll be looking at “the big guys.”

A while back I had a chance to talk to the European captain at length about the matches. One thing he said then has stuck with me.

Why, I asked, had the Europeans had been so successful of late against the Americans, winning 7 of 9 and 5 of the last 6 Matches. They have won, or tied to retain the Cup 10 of the last 14 Matches!

McGinley answered quickly. The reason, he said, is because “our big guys” — he mentioned Poulter — are playing better than “your big guys”— no names. The top Europeans players, McGinley said, were scoring 3, 3.5, sometimes 4 points. The top Americans averaging only 1 or 1.5 points.

It’s not quite that cut and dried. If we count the “big guys” as major winners and those who have played the Ryder Cup as if it were a major (such as Lee Westwood, Poulter and Steve Stricker), not all of the Europeans scored that well in Chicago. Westwood, Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia were just 2-2-0, and Graeme McDowell was 1-3, but Poulter (4-0) Justin Rose (3-2) and Rory McIlroy (3-2) carried the day. On the U.S. side, “big guy” Mickelson was 3-1, but Jim Furyk (1-2-0), Tiger Woods (0-3-1) and Stricker (0-4-0) undermined the strong showing by Jason Dufner, Keegan Bradley and the Johnsons, Zach and Dustin. (Zach has been an exceptional “big guy” on the U.S. side).

In 2010, Woods and Stricker were good (3-1), but veterans Mickelson (1-3) and Furyk (0-2-1) were not. On the other side, Poulter and Donald were 3-1, McDowell and Miguel Angel Jimenez both 2-1. Mickelson became the “losingest” American in the Ryder Cup. He’s now 14-18-6. Woods is 13-17-3. Those are big guys with little records.

Look at these averages from the last four Ryder Cups matches for veterans on this year’s sides. For the Cups they’ve played in, here are European “big guy” point averages:

  • Poulter: 3.7
  • Rose: 3.0
  • McIlroy: 2.5
  • Westwood: 2.4
  • Garcia: 2.3
  • McDowell: 2.0

And for the U.S.:

  • Z Johnson: 2.2
  • Mickelson: 1.6
  • Furyk: 1.5
  • Stricker: 1.2

If you add Hunter Mahan, his average over two sessions is 2.3.

We had very close finishes in the last two Cups (14.5 to 13.5 in 2010 and 2012), but I have no doubt that McGinley believes that in the end, his “studs” made the difference. The “A” flight has to lead the “B” flight. Not the other way around.

The Americans don’t talk that way.

“The Ryder Cup is getting desperate for the United States,” former captain Paul Azinger said this month. “Tom Watson is going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat.”

The rabbit Azinger would have pulled, he made clear, the one Watson did not, was Chris Kirk.

“He is hot and I like hot players.”

In 2008, when Azinger’s squad punished the Euros 16.5 to 11.5, I remember someone pointing out that American rookies scored 4.5 of the 5.5 needed on the final day.

“Maybe going with rookies over experience is not such a bad idea,” posted one happy American fan.

Not for McGinley. I’m sure he wants all the hot players he can get and if they’re rookies, that’s fine. But his view of captain Nick Faldo’s 2008 debacle would be the play of Padraig Harrington (0-3-1), Garcia (0-2-2) and Jimenez (0-2-1), undoing the good that Poulter (4-1-0) McDowell (2-1-1) and Rose (3-1-0) had done. (He told me that a captain’s motivational ability was a second key factor and praised Sam Torrance energetically. He didn’t mention Faldo).

This year, the European big guys may be feeling just a bit more pressure, and the Americans less, because finally the Euros are favored. It’s the best thing that could happen to the U.S. side, especially under Watson, who I think adds to the weight the Americans carry — he’s not the loosest guy in the world — and American players tend to put awful pressure on themselves when they’re favored.

I think McGinley senses this could be a problem. His recent reference during a press conference to a great Dublin football team losing inexplicably to a lousy one reminded me of Lou Holtz, when he coached at Notre Dame, reminding the press how good that Akron team could be, before the Irish beat them 52 to 6.

“That’s just an illustration when you are talking about top-level sport, these things happen. And that’s always a worry.”

But McGinley is betting that if Poulter, Rose, Westwood, McDowell and McIlroy play with the their usual Ryder Cup passion, it won’t.

McGinley will do all he can to keep the mood light; no one has a lighter touch when necessary. But his approach won’t change.

No rabbits, no hats for the European captain.

It’s all about the big guys.

TV Times for the Ryder Cup

Thursday, Sept. 25

9 a.m. – 1 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Friday, Sept. 26

Session 1 (Four-ball): 2:35 a.m. (Golf Channel)
Session 2 (Foursomes): 8:15 a.m. (Golf Channel)

Saturday, Sept. 27

Session 1 (Four-ball): 3 a.m. (NBC)
Session 2 (Foursomes): 8:15 a.m. (NBC)

Sunday, Sept. 28

Singles: 6:36 a.m. (NBC)

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Bob Carney is a Contributing Editor at Golf Digest, writing for the magazine, its web site and sister publication Golf World. He’s an avid golfer and a single-digit handicap who has earned awards for his coverage of the industry and recreational golf. He is co-author, with Davis Love Jr. and Bob Toski, of How to Feel a Real Golf Swing. Prior to joining Golf Digest, Carney wrote for the Bergen (NJ) Record and contributed stories to People Magazine and Time, among others. He earned a B.A. From University of Michigan, attended Columbia University Journalism School, and served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Thailand, where he managed to get in one or two rounds of golf.

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Jafar

    Sep 25, 2014 at 3:22 pm

    Europe will choke. They’re filled with a bunch of pansies 😛

    And there’s no extra incentive to beat a team with Tiger Woods. Instead the USA has the underdog role of beating the #1 in the world.

  2. Bollix

    Sep 23, 2014 at 3:18 am

    The US might steal this one, I reckons

  3. Bill

    Sep 22, 2014 at 9:16 am

    The Ryder Cup is the best display of world golf competition..It’s great viewing and every match means something. Love the passion that goes into it from both sides. Names don’t mean all that much, the hot hand can turn it around. The Europeans have the name talent this time but we had it the last two Ryders and we know what happened.

  4. Knalleich

    Sep 22, 2014 at 4:42 am

    If you are watching through McGinley’s eyes, why would the thougth “What if we had Billy Horschel” ever even cross your mind?
    Also the players on each side you call “Big Guys”, the U.S. big guys at the moment are for example Stricker and Mickelson. Both are getting old, one even plays a limited amount of events, the other hasnt really played well all year and on the other side you have McIlroy and Garcia who play great all year.
    Why does it matter how many majors any of these players won 5 years ago?
    Right now McIlroy is big, Mickelson isnt in my oppinion.
    And how is McDowell or Rose an european big guy right now and kaymer isnt???

  5. Dave

    Sep 21, 2014 at 7:04 pm

    Come on people this is ryder cup! It’s not about who you think will win its about backing YOUR country/team ! Let’s go USA!!!!!!

    • Rwj

      Sep 21, 2014 at 10:06 pm

      …and fantasy football players should only choose players from their state or city

  6. Carl truitt

    Sep 21, 2014 at 4:50 pm

    Mods….why delete all the previous comments?

    • Rich

      Sep 22, 2014 at 4:18 am

      Because they might have hurt everybodies feelings. Plus they finally decided to edit the first line of the article because it was wrong so most of the comments wouldn’t have made sense.

  7. Joseph

    Sep 21, 2014 at 10:54 am

    Come on. Horschel chunked a shot on the last hole to lose the tourney the day before Watson had to make his picks. Kirk arguably might have been a solid pick. I’m so tired of hearing about how much the Europeans love this event and play more as a team than the US. There is no magic formula. To me it’s simple, just play better golf over a 3 day day period than your opponent.

    • James Brown

      Sep 21, 2014 at 7:29 pm

      You and captain watson share the same philosophy. I believe it is that simple but I also believe that team USA shows up with all stars and gets beat by a TEAM of players with far less major wins or total tour wins. I think the USA needs to approach the Ryder cup like Herb Brooks did for the 1980 Olympics. Azingers adjustments were a start in the right direction. It’s not about getting the best players, it’s about getting the right players for the different formats.

  8. Dan

    Sep 21, 2014 at 10:21 am

    I want America to win but Europe seems to have the better team. Plus the European players seem to enjoy the team event much more than the Americans. I think that’s a huge advantage.

  9. Christosterone

    Sep 21, 2014 at 9:58 am

    My captains picks wouldve been:
    Kirk
    Horschel
    Moore

    • John

      Sep 21, 2014 at 5:12 pm

      Completely agree, was surprised with Moore being left out considering he’s had a win, 7 top 10’s and was 39th in fedex cup this year

  10. Dick

    Sep 21, 2014 at 8:43 am

    It’s over before it even starts.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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